A Formula for Victory?

Throughout my years as a fan of Hokie football, one common theory I've heard is that we should run the ball more; that rushing equals wins. I decided to see if the numbers back that theory up., looking at play calls through three quarters a game, for the last four years.

Why did I choose those parameters? It is well established that given a fourth quarter lead, CFB goes conservative and tries to kill the clock. Conversely, given a deficit, we throw more. Finally, four years gives us two years of Lefty, and two of the previous regime.

The Numbers:
Run>Pass: 19-12 (.613)
Pass>Run: 12-7 (.632)
Balance: 2-1 (.667)

20-24 carries: 5-8 (.385)
25-29 carries: 15-6 (.714)
30+ carries: 11-5 (.687)

20-24 passes: 13-9 (.591)
25-29 passes: 10-3 (.769)
30+ passes: 4-5 (.444)

According to these numbers, our best chances of winning occur when we have 25-29 carries AND passes balanced, and if we were to have a higher number either way, we should prefer the higher number be in pass attempts.

Superlatives:
Most Rushes in Win: 40 vs LOLUVA, 2012
Most Rushes in Loss: 41 vs Miami, 2012
Most Passes in Win: 33 vs BC, 2011
Most Passes in Loss: 35(tie) 2011 ACCCG vs Clemson, vs UNC, 2012

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"I liked you guys a lot better when everybody told you you were terrible." -Justin Fuente

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"I liked you guys a lot better when everybody told you you were terrible." -Justin Fuente

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Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

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"We judge ourselves by our intentions and others by their behavior" Stephen M.R. Covey

“When life knocks you down plan to land on your back, because if you can look up, you can get up, if you fall flat on your face it can kill your spirit” David Wilson

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"We judge ourselves by our intentions and others by their behavior" Stephen M.R. Covey

“When life knocks you down plan to land on your back, because if you can look up, you can get up, if you fall flat on your face it can kill your spirit” David Wilson

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"I liked you guys a lot better when everybody told you you were terrible." -Justin Fuente

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Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

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"War was always here. Before man was, war waited for him. The ultimate trade awaiting its ultimate practitioner.”~~Judge Holden

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"I liked you guys a lot better when everybody told you you were terrible." -Justin Fuente

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Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

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"I liked you guys a lot better when everybody told you you were terrible." -Justin Fuente

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twitter @smithey_daniel
head scout BSP scouting specializing in north florida/ southern GA highschool football scouting

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"I liked you guys a lot better when everybody told you you were terrible." -Justin Fuente

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Wiley, Brown, Russell, Drakeford, Gray, Banks, Prioleau, Charleton, Midget, Bird, McCadam, Pile, Hall, Green, Fuller, Williams, Hamilton, Rouse, Flowers, Harris, Chancellor, Carmichael, Hosley, Fuller, Exum, Jarrett

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Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

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Marshall University graduate.
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"I liked you guys a lot better when everybody told you you were terrible." -Justin Fuente

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Marshall University graduate.
Virginia Tech fanatic.
Formerly known as JWillHokieAlum.