Buzzketball Central: #10 North Carolina Tar Heels (16-4, 5-2) at Virginia Tech Hokies (13-6, 2-4) 7PM ESPN

IT'S GAMEDAY!🏀 #BeatUNC | #DefendTheBurg 📍 Cassell Coliseum🕖 7 PM EST📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/ozy8rspkja— VT Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) January 22, 2018

GAME INFORMATION
Date/Time: Jan. 22, 2018 / 7 p.m.
Opponent: University of North Carolina
Site: Blacksburg, Virginia (Carilion Clinic Court at Cassell Coliseum)
Radio: Virginia Tech IMG Sports Network
Talent: Jon Laaser & Mike Burnop
Internet: ESPN
Talent: Sean McDonough, Jay Bilas & Allison Williams
Live Stats: HokieSports.com
Game Notes: Virginia Tech
SIRI 83 (Internet 83)

Whole squad looking NICE tonight 👌#gamedaykicks#DefendTheBurg pic.twitter.com/ULN5LzNs7f— VT Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) January 22, 2018

These are for Suits and Sneakers week to support Cancer Research

ACC and Season on the Brink of a Blackout

⚫️ Wear Black📲 Download Hokie Lights🏀 #DefendTheBurgDoors are open, #HokieNation... pic.twitter.com/MkWAj6r7B8— VT Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) January 22, 2018

Buzzketball stays home after a tough loss to Florida State on Saturday. The North Carolina Tar Heels come to town the Hokies with a 16-4 overall record. The Tar Heels only losses this season are #4 Michigan State, #8 UVA, #24 Florida State and a shocker to Wofford. They have P5 wins over Stanford, Arkansas, Michigan, #20 Tennessee, Ohio State and five wins in conference thus far. So far in the ACC, outside the losses, the Tar Heels lowest offensive output is 69, with their high 104 against Western Carolina.

The Hokies plan to honor Frank Beamer for being inducted to the College Football Hall of Fame tonight

We're honoring @cfbhall Class of 2018 member Frank Beamer at today's @HokiesMBB game!#ThanksFrank pic.twitter.com/aEnadIkdqE— HokieSports (@hokiesports) January 22, 2018

Home again in Cassell but definitely an underdog although the line only says 3.5 right now, which I would have expected to be higher honestly with how things have been going for the Hokies. The good news for the Hokies is that UNC allows opponents to shoot 37% from outside and allow opponents to shoot at will with 534 attempts so far this year, which is 332nd in the country.

This will be the Eighty first meeting between the Hokies and Tar Heels. UNC leads the all-time series 67-13. UNC won last years matchup 91-72. The Hokies are 8-37 at home against UNC all time.

POOP

The Tar Heels are coached by Roy Williams, who has been at UNC since 2003. His first season is the only year the Tar Heels have not won at least 20 games(19 wins) under his tutelage. They have 13 NCAA Tournament appearances, and one NIT appearance. They have made it to the Elite Eight seven times, the Final Four three times, NCAA runner up once and NCAA Champion twice, including last year under Williams. The amazing thing about Williams is that before coming to UNC, his Kansas teams also only failed to reach 20 wins once (19 wins), also in his first season there. He has a career 79% winning percentage as a coach and just last year reached 800 career wins. He is now 832-220 as a head coach, 414-119 at UNC.

Defensively, the Tar Heels run almost exclusively a man to man defense. Coach Williams relies on the talent of his players to win out in one on one matchups. Their defense is designed to drive their offense, as Williams like to tell his players that they need to be playing 94 feet of offense all the time.

Offensively, North Carolina runs a constant motion offense with the goal of being primarily a transition offense. Coach Williams tells his guys that if there are less than 2 defenders back they they should score with 2 or less passes. If more than two they need to move to their motion offense. Expect to see two bigs in play in the lane at the same time. They are trying to find the point where the defense lapses on one or the other and take advantage of it. The Tar Heels also don't focus nearly as much on shooting from outside, especially compared to the competition.

What does that mean for the Hokies?

The Hokies are going to have their hands full down low all game. Blackshear and Clarke likely will not be enough to keep the North Carolina bigs in check. Its going to take total team defense to deny the easy buckets underneath from this Tar Heels squad. Currently the Tar Heels average 50% shooting inside on 43 shots per contest.

The Hokies have another opportunity to find their way back defensively. UNC struggles against press defenses, especially when it stretches the floor. Those games have seen their turnover numbers drastically increase. The Tarheels are averaging 12 turnovers per game. I would hope that Buzz has his guys turn the pressure all the way up, especially early on in each half.

The Hokies need to do something that is almost anathema to them, and that is to slow this game down almost to a snails pace. They need to block interior passing lanes while controlling the clock, limit the fluidity of motion so that they have a tough time establishing a rhythm. The games that go slow have been bad for the Hokies but they have been arguably worse for the Tar Heels as UNC has averaged 62.25 points in its four losses while averaging 82.7 points per game this season, or almost a twenty point drop off when they lose.

Today as has been the case most of the season, the Hokies perimeter players need to be almost perfect. There is no room for the Hokies to go cold over an extended period from outside. As mentioned above though, the outside shot is a major flaw for UNC so taking advantage is critical for the Hokies to have a chance at victory.

Tar Heels Backcourt

Joel Berry II (#2) 6', 195 Lbs Senior Guard is averaging 17.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.9 APG and 1 SPG. He is shooting 36% from behind the arc and 38% overall in a down season for him. He makes 2.6 threes per game. He also happens to shoot free throws at about 90% so all around, if you can limit his possessions and shots it improves your chances of winning.

Kenny Williams, (#24) 6'3, 166 Lbs Junior Guard comes in averaging 11.9 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.1 SPG. He is shooting 41% from outside which is a significant improvement over last season. He also struggles at the free throw line shooting 70%. His greatest improvement though is his interior scoring, where he is making 56% of his shots this season.

Cameron Johnson (#13), 6'7, 185 Lbs Senior Guard has stepped into the role vacated by Nate Britt after being a graduate transfer from Pitt. He is averaging 11.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2 APG and .7 SPG. He is probably their best on ball defender amongst the guards so expect him to be locked up with Hill or Bibbs for a good portion of the night, especially if UNC gets out to a big lead. He missed time early in the season but has made up for that with double digits in four of seven ACC games, with special focus on perimeter shooting having hit 17 threes, including a 6 for 9 performance against Clemson.

Tar Heels Frontcourt

Luke Maye, (#32), 6'7, 227 Lbs Junior came out of his shell last season and has continued that trend, leading the Tar Heels in scoring at 17.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 2.4 APG and 1.1 BPG. Maye is shooting 52% inside and 48% from outside, yes, 48% on 3 shots per contest. His only struggles seem to be at the line, where he is hitting only 61%.

Theo Pinson, (#1), 6'6, 211 Lbs, Senior Forward has returned to action after missing much of last season to injury to provide the Tar Heels 9.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.3 APG, and 1 SPG. Pinson plays a role much like Clarke, controlling the ball at the point, driving the lane and hitting open shooters, and being able to score the shots no one else would attempt.

Sterling Manley, (#21), 6'11, 240 Lbs Freshman Center provides the Tar Heels with a dominant inside presence putting up 6.1 PPG and 4.7 RPG.

He is joined down low by fellow freshman, Garrison Brooks, (#15) 6'9, 215 Lbs who is also putting up 5.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 1 APG. This is not nearly as dominant an inside group though as last year where they had Justin Jackson, Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks and Tony Bradley to go along with Pinson and Maye.

What to expect from UNC?

The Tar Heels rely on a rotation of eight players. They rely heavily on their bigs to do most of the scoring. That's not good news for the Hokies, who have struggled against size at every turn. They will be looking to get the ball in the paint on almost every possession tonight.

The Tar Heels will struggle if forced to go to more perimeter shooting so something to watch for, especially if a few of their bigs get in early foul trouble.

The Tar Heels will look to expose weaknesses in the lane. Don't be surprised to see quite a few alley oops or high pass lay ins as Pinson lobs the ball over the top to a big under the basket for an easy score.

One other thing to keep in mind. This is the 11th team in the country in terms of offensive rebounding. They average almost 14 offensive rebounds per game. This is troubling for a team that does not seem to have developed much in the way of a rebounding game, especially with the constant guidance to get back on defense rather than attempt to get offensive rebounds of their own. If they score at about the same percentage they do now as a team, that will be an extra 11 points per game they manage from the second chance opportunities.

The Hokies

Tech has two choices in this game. Attempt to slow things down and limit UNC opportunities to score dramatically to try to keep it a close game or they will attempt to run UNC out of the gym, especially with how they rely on big men across their roster for most of their offense. I expect to see Buzz have them go with the second option even though my thoughts are the first is their best chance.

Tech needs to drive inside to get fouled. Controlled drives right at a specific big. They need to disrupt the UNC offense that relies so heavily on having three or four bigs on the court at any point and time. Early foul trouble could give the Hokies a window to work up a lead. Almost every player in their normal rotation averages about 2 fouls per game.

Ahmed Hill and Justin Bibbs need to have their best games of the season tonight. Shooting from the arc needs to probably be around 60% for the Hokies to keep this game close.

Highlight of the Florida State Game

Justin Robinson did all he could to keep the Hokies in the game. He scored 26 points on 10-15 shooting including 4-7 from outside. He grabbed 2 boards, had six assists and even was credited with a block. He did still have four turnovers which is troubling but Blackshear's foul trouble is definitely what did the Hokies in. He only managed 18 minutes on the court.

In Closing

UNC is going to look to pound the paint either by pass or by drive. The Hokies have to find a way to keep the ball out of the interior. Expect to see a lot of 1-3-1 zone with defenders blocking their big counterparts from the front. This still may not prevent scoring as these bigs are more than capable of accepting a lob or directed pass for alley oops or lay ups. This matchup probably decides the game.

The offense has to be operating at a fluid clip. The Hokies should have some mismatches in terms of speed versus size on the offensive end so using that to their advantage and getting the UNC bigs in foul trouble could play a key role in a Hokies upset.

I hope this team proves me wrong but everything they have shown says that the Tar Heels represent another loss and one step closer to a lost season. The Hokies desperately need a win in this one because the remaining schedule is ACC Murderer's row.

Success involves risk beyond what most of us are willing to take:ANDSacrifice beyond what most of us are willing to make.— Buzz Williams (@TeamCoachBuzz) January 19, 2018

After tonight, Tech has 11 games remaining. They have four against currently ranked teams, four against teams that were ranked at some point this season, and then three games against NC State, Georgia Tech and a revamped Boston College team that took UVA to the brink and beat Florida State. Not one game remaining against a lower in the ACC Standings currently.

ACC Standings

#2 UVA (18-1, 7-0)
#27 Louisville (15-4, 5-1)
#4 Duke (17-2, 5-2)
#18 Clemson (16-3, 5-2)
#10 UNC (16-4, 5-2)
#26 Miami (14-4, 3-3)
Georgia Tech (10-9, 3-3)
#33 Florida State (14-5, 3-4)
Boston College (13-7, 3-4)
Notre Dame (13-7, 3-4)
NC State (13-7, 3-4)
Virginia Tech (13-6, 2-4)
Syracuse (13-6, 2-4)
Wake Forest (8-11, 1-6)
Pitt (8-12, 0-7)

Other Big Games this week:

1/23/2018
#18 Clemson at #2 UVA 7PM and only on the ACCNetwork
1/24/2018
Louisville at Miami 8PM ESPN2
1/27/2018
#2 UVA at #4 Duke 2PM CBS
Hokies at Notre Dame 8PM ESPN2