GAMBLING LINES 2019: WEEK 15 (CHAMP WEEK)

Last week, I bet the VT ML for our basketball team to beat MSU. Hindsight being 20/20, I should have bet a hell of a lot more. Being a good degenerate gambler, I took those winnings and bet them on my usual slate of football games...and managed to just barely break even. Thanks to a surprising showing by Nebraska and a disappointing performance by our very own Virginia Tech Hokies, I was going into the later games Saturday way in the hole. My only bets left on the board: LSU (-17), Auburn ML, and a five leg parlay (ND, Washington, Iowa, MIzzou, Cincinnati(+11)). Thankfully all of those hit (Cinci only lost by 10!!) to bring me back up to even for the week. So much stress, so little to show for it.

Don't bet, kids.

Anyway, on to this week's lines.

  • Memphis (-10): I'm sure a lot of very complicated analytics went into coming up with a spread that's just the score difference between these two teams two days ago...
  • LSU (-6.5): LSU is going to roll the DAWGS. They have an undefeated season on the line and have shown they want to keep winning convincingly.
  • Clemson (-28.5): Clemson has the weakest schedule of CFP candidates. They just beat USC by 35 (good call, Feaster) and need to continue to make the case that they are better than their SOS. They will run up the score on a mediocre LOLUVa team.
  • anOSU (-16.5): I seen this one before and it sure as hell wasn't a 17 point game. anOSU will cover on their way to a #2 seed in the CFP.
Conference Team #1 Team #2 Spread
PAC-12 Oregon Utah Utah (-6.5)
MAC Miami (OH) Central Michigan CMU (-6.5)
Sun Belt UL Lafayette App State App State (-6)
Big-12 Baylor Oklahoma OU (-9.5)
C-USA UAB FAU FAU (-7.5)
AAC Cincinnati Memphis Memphis (-10)
Mountain West Hawaii Boise State BSU (-15.5)
SEC Georgia LSU LSU (-6.5)
ACC LOLUVa Clemson Clemson (-28.5)
B1G Wisconsin anOSU anOSU (-16.5)
Forums: 
DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.

Comments

That UVA line has big backdoor cover vibes.

I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

I don't bet on lines 3 TDs or greater. Usually once a team gets up 3 TDs, they either dial it back and play for the W or the opponent is that much over-matched and it turns into a blow out. Too much variance.

That being said, Clemson has something to prove. Wouldn't surprise me if they kept their foot on the gas.

I hope you're right but I also don't think they'll leave their starters in that long if the game is out of hand. I don't think they need style points. They're in with a win.

I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

well, LOLUVa is due for some backdoor action.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Sitting at 80% on the year.

Oregon
App State
Boise State
LSU
OSU

5 for 5 straight up and 4 for 5 against the spread. Finished the season at 80% ATS.

Bowls will be more difficult.

I've already made money taking the Clemson and LSU lines (separately). Now I'm hoping anOSU can put in another TD and hold off the backdoor cover so I can hit a nice parlay with all three

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Eff you anOSU

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..