If Virginia Tech could keep all-recruits instate could we win a National Championship

We have often heard if star recruits would stay Home Virginia Tech would Win a National Championship. Andy Bitter tweeted out that he was going to examine if the state of Virginia Produces enough talent to win a National Championship. Well this got me thinking, and I don't subscribe to the Athletic so I wanted to look at it for myself to see if it was possible. I am also kinda bored and wanted to see what everyone else thought.

Scenario 1:
2009 Virginia Tech Hokies
-I used 2009 because it was one of our best finishes (#10) in a while and it would provide enough recruiting information. For this scenario, I took the 2009 roster and removed non-VA players and added in Virginia Recruits from 2005-2008.

Key Players we Lose:
Jason Worilds, Nekos Brown, Jayron Hosley, Eddie Whitley, Roc Carmichael, Stephen Virgil, Josh Oglesby, Darren Evens, Sergio Render, and Jarrett Boykin.

Key Additions
Quinton Coples, Andre Branch, Ras-I Dowling, Torrey Smith, Percy Harvin, Vidal Hazelton, and Evan Royster

I don't think that would be enough to make us national champions.

Scenario 2
I tired to compile the best roster possible from 4 consecutive years of Virginia Recruits.
The best I could do is 2012-2015. This is what I could come up with:
QBs - Christian Hackenburg, Trace McSorley, Wilton Speight
RBs - Derrick Green, Trey Edmunds, Travon McMillian, Sam Rogers
WRs - Gary Jennings Jr., DaeSean Hamilton, Brandon Polk, Felton DavisIII, Travis Fulgham
TEs - Bucky Hodges, Dakota Jackson??
OL - Wyatt Teller, Braxton Pfaff, Justin Skule, Nate Davis, Phil Haynes, Augie Contie, Chance Hall, Alec Eberle
DT - Tim Settle, Derrick Nnadi, Andrew Brown, Tanner Karafa
DE - Clelin Ferrell, Da'Shawn Hand, Josh Sweat, Jonathan Allen, and Jalyn Holmes
LBs - Tremaine Edmunds, Eli Harold, Greer Martini, and EJ Levenberry
CBs - Greg Stroman, Tim Harris, Maurice Canady, Alex Carter, and CJ Reavis
S - Juan Thornhill, Terrell Edmunds, Quin Blanding, Anthony Shegog, and Garrett Taylor
K - Chris Blewitt

I feel this team would probably have a good enough defense to win a National Championship, but the offense would not be as good.

Edit: I went to Maxpreps to look at a list of Player drafted that were from Virginia and found 3 OL and 1 WR to add to scenario 2.

DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.

Comments

I think we could def be in the convo. We would 100% would be better thats for sure. I've followed VA HS recruiting a long time, we have always struggled to get the top VA state talent. I know not everyone agrees though, it seems all I see now on TKP is people trying to convince themselves In-state recruiting isn't important in "modern college football".

Pour some Beer on it

It is important but we will never fully lock it down. The world is much smaller now and there does not seem to be as much state pride as there once was. Therefore, there is no built in advantage and we have to recruit a larger footprint to find the recruits that feel at home in Blacksburg.

The first rule of Fight Club is we don't talk about turkey leg votes

The problem with this hypothetical: Do the five star players actually play like 5 stars players? Would a guy like three star Terrell Edmunds emerge as a first round talent if he's forced to play behind "5 star" Quin Blanding his entire career?

No

If a tree falls in Scott Stadium does it make a sound?

Correct answer

Side note: My friend's dog shoved Devyn Ford in the junk at Petco last week in State College.

Good doggo

Using /s is for cowards.

I bet Devyn Ford is more of a cat person

Gobble Till You Wobble

Was it a Big Dog

I just sit on my couch and b*tch. - HokieChemE2016

yeah, a horse!

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Golden Doodle. Not this one but approximately this big.

That defense would be incredible. I think the offense could have put up enough points to make a run, but we would be struggling in the WR category.

Whatever. It was one bad year.

Seasonal Brew means High ABV for football season and standard the rest of the year.

I read the piece on the Athletic (great read btw). Basically, if we landed EVERY bluechip in the state of VA, we would have a 50%+ blue chip ratio from 2015-2017 (53%, 51%, and 52% respectively). Every other year we'd be in the 40% range (which is historically not good enough to win a natty).

Another cool stat was that in 2019 the only states that could hit the 50% mark based only on in state recruits were GA, FL, CA, TX, LA, OH, NC, and AL.

Edit/addition: Can't remember if it was on twitter or on his TKP AMA, but I recall reading a comment from Brenden Hill where he basically said that, since the great recession a lot of good jobs left the 757/VA Beach area, and as a result, there's less football talent there. Would be curious if the recruiting rankings reflect this, and/or if it has influenced Fuente's strategy.

Twitter me

Good stuff, but maybe delete it so no one gets Bitter about it? You know, paywall and all, good sir.

Hokie fan | W&M grad

It's OK to whet one's appetite every now and then, isn't it?

I like this guy. I think you just bought my subscription if I can dig up one of those nice discount codes.

Hokie fan | W&M grad

Try Up, Up, Down, Down, Left, Right, Left, Right, B, A, Start.

"Just because we use cheats doesn't mean we're not smart..."

Leonard. Duh.

Come on, everyone knows it is Up, Up, Down, Down, Left, Right, Left, Right, B, A, B, A, Select, Start...

A common misconception is that the code ends with Start or Select Start. In many titles, the player must press Start after entering the code in order to start a game, or press Select to switch to two-player mode and then start the game, leading to the confusion.

Droppin Wiki Bombs

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

This is the correct answer. If you had friends, Select Start. If you didn't, Start.

So Big Perm confirmed to have no friends? /s

His most recent piece was really good, it's def worth the $40/year or whatever.

Twitter me

or if you still have an edu email use it and get the student price $29.99

(add if applicable) /s

'09 nope. '12-'15, don't know but don't think so.

Maybe McSorely with a good play caller has a chance, but I am not enthused about those QBs. I wasnt upset when they went other places either.

Virginia hasn't produced an elite QB in awhile, so that would be an enormous hindrance. However, our DL would be great and we would have a shit ton of good RB's to choose from. We would be a better team in some major areas, but I don't think we would be a title contender. I think from 2012-present we would have maintained a very high level of consistency and quality, winning the Coastal most years and going 9-3 to 11-1 most seasons, but being that team that is not good enough to get over the hump.

Here's some notable guys we (could) have on the roster this past season or upcoming season if we could get any VA recruit we wanted:

Josh Sweat DE, Ricky DeBerry LB, Matthew Burrell OL, Clelin Ferrell DE, Juan Thornhill DB, Levonta Taylor DB, Khalan Laborn RB, Luiji Vilain DE, Darnell Ewell DT, Jordan Williams DL, Yetur Gross Metos DL, Ricky Slade RB, Teradja Mitchell LB, K'Vaughn Pope LB, Brandon Smith LB, Devyn Ford RB, Eugene Asante LB.

Interesting notes from looking back at these Virginia classes 15-19:

Our LB, DL, and RB rooms would be STACKED. Probably a good enough front 7 and running game to dominate the Coastal every year.

2016 was a hilariously awful year for the state of Virginia.

I don't think option A would come close. Option B looks good but I think you would need to take into account the ages/class of all those recruits (aka, how many are freshmen/soph and how many are Junior/seniors?).

The other main flaw of this argument that someone alluded to earlier is if we assume we can keep all the VA talent, does that mean UGA, Texas, UF, and USC keep all their in state talent? If that's the case then no matter what, we would never come close to a NC, unless another MV7 were to come through.

Just remember who was calling plays during that last period. And who our line coaches were.

So, I'm going with no.

2002 (RS everyone) - 2006 (assume real life doesn't happen an no one has life issues). It's light on OL, DL, and WR, but the players at OL and WR are outstanding. LB I just stopped putting in backups.

QB - Marcus Vick, Glennon?

RB - Thomas Clayton, Cedric Peerman, Jason Snelling, Brandon Ore, Elan Lewis, DJ Ware
WR - Eddie Royal, Percy Harvin, Vidal Hazelton
TE - Greg Boone, Derick Epps
OL - Brandon Gore, Levi Brown, Duane Brown, Matt Welsh, Nick Marshman, Beau Warren

DE - Darryl Tapp, Chris Long, Clint Sintim, Chris Ellis
DL - Carlton Powell, Cordarrow Thompson, Daryl Roberton
LB - Xavier Adibi, Vince Hall, Jerod Mayo, Ahmad Brooks
DB - Macho Harris, Vic Hall, Ahmad Bradshaw, Isaiah Gardner, Jimmy Williams, Marcus Hamilton, Aaron Rouse, Kam Chancellor

K - Brent Bowden
P - Nic Schmitt

If Marcus played as good as Marcus could have been this team would have had a chance as good as the DEF would be with all the play makers on offense.

Trace McSorley wanted to come to VT....

You will see this game, this upset and this sign next on ESPN Sportscenter. Virginia Tech 31 Miami 7

So did Taj Boyd and Russel Wilson and others. At the time, we didn't have the offensive coaching expertise to take advantage of these players' skill sets.

Twitter me

Russell was a choice by our staff to get Tyrod.

Worked out pretty well for us. NC State got a few good years, and then he transferred. Beat him head to head, too.

TKPhi Damn Proud
BSME 2009

Russell's parents both went to UVa...they chose Peter Lalich instead.

If we landed all the Virginia top prospects? Yes. Because we'd also be landing some very talented out of state prospects that round out the roster.

//

With a roster of only state of Virginia players? No. Maybe during the late 90's with Vick @ QB.

Unless your school is in Florida, Georgia, Texas or California (maybe Ohio or Louisiana) it's highly unlikely that you could field a complete, championship-caliber roster with only in-state prospects.

Virginia produces a ton of talented players, but they're not consistently distributed across the field and there's not necessarily enough of them each year to really fill out the depth chart.

If we landed all the Virginia top prospects? Yes. Because we'd also be landing some very talented out of state prospects that round out the roster.

//

With a roster of only state of Virginia players? No. Maybe during the late 90's with Vick @ QB.

Yeah, there are two different things being discussed in this thread -- keeping all VA players at VT, and having only VA players at VT. The first is more likely to beget a championship than the second.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Maybe 5+ years ago... but today?

LOLnope.

It would help but still need to recruit nationally. But getting top instate talent should be easy.

#Let's Go - Hokies

But getting top instate talent should be easy

Are you saying in this exercise or real life it should be easy?

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

If we're National championship caliber

#Let's Go - Hokies

Russell Wilson over Tyrod? I dunno man... because they played at the same time (and against each other in 2009).

Anywho, ...despite thinking about this kind of stuff all the time, I don't like to. I'd rather just live in the ignorance. ...because thinking about all the talent leaving the state hurts my soul.

The article started looking at 2011. He mentioned he was tempted to go back to 2010 with Tyrod, but would have had trouble filling in some other spots.

ah, ok. I can't read the article yet (block on Air Force sites for whatever reason) so I was just going off the info presented in the tweet.

...damn, imagine Russell Wilson on VT in 2011 (no disrespect to Logan)

Yep if we had been able to have Tyrod in 2011 (big "what if") or if we had Russell Wilson in 2011 that could have been special. I think we can take some solace in that if we met an LSU or Bama in the title game that season, both of which were historically dominant, we probably would have lost anyway, but still fun to think about.

I definitely don't think we would have lost to Clemson either time. So strange that our offense was so bad against their pretty atrocious (at times) defense that year. They got cooked by NC State, GT, South Carolina, and of course, WVU dropping 70 on them.

I also don't think you're insulting Logan at all, he was quite good in 2011, but overall not great. In his best moments (GT and Miami) he looked like he was going to be a 1st round draft pick. He made some genuinely incredible throws in those games and showed serious poise. In his low moments we saw the inaccuracy, inconsistency, and questionable decision making that became more pronounced in 2012 and 2013 with a substantially worse supporting cast.