1,024 Coastal Division Scenarios Remain

That's right, there are now only ten ACC games left involving Coastal Division teams. With UVA beating GT, Miami beating Louisville, and Virginia Tech beating Wake Forest, 3 teams have been eliminated from Coastal contention: Duke, GT, and UNC. For the four teams left in contention, this is how things stack up at the moment, once again using last week's SP+ numbers for the relative odds until those get updated tomorrow now using the post-Week 11 SP+ numbers:

Team Odds # Outcomes
Virginia 65.8% 584
Virginia Tech 26.5% 336
Pittsburgh 6.01% 64
Miami 1.31% 32
Tie* 0.31% 8

* - A tie that is reaches step #7 on the list of tiebreakers, all 8 of which are 3-way ties between Pitt, UVA, and Virginia Tech

At this point, only Virginia Tech and UVA control their own destiny within the Coastal Division. Furthermore, a loss to Georgia Tech next week would not eliminate said control, but it would remove any chance of winning the Coastal with a loss to Pitt. Also, in the case of wins over GT and UVA and a loss to Pitt, we would still have a decent shot of winning the division, depending on how the other games shake out (57% VT, 37% Pitt, 3% UVA, 3% Tie).

Chart time:

While UVA's chunk on each graph is still overwhelmingly large and slightly bigger than last week, our piece of both pies grew by a larger amount. EDIT: I've adjusted the charts to reflect the updated SP+ rankings from today, and they confirm what we already expected, that we were the big winners this weekend. Despite still holding a majority of both charts, UVA's odds fell from 72% to 66%, even while beating GT, and ours skyrocketed from 12% to 27%. We still have to win at least 2 of our last 3, with one of the 2 coming against UVA, to have a shot, but at least at this point it seems most likely to come down to the head-to-head matchup in Charlottesville in Black Friday, and I have 15 years of evidence that the numbers may be judging the situation slightly incorrectly in this case.

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uva - the taint of the ACC
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VT '10--US Citizen; (804) Virginian By Birth; (210) Texan By the Grace of God.

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uva - the taint of the ACC
Callused perineum is a symptom of being a uva fan

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uva - the taint of the ACC
Callused perineum is a symptom of being a uva fan

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Wet stuff on the red stuff.

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Wet stuff on the red stuff.

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the numbers don’t lie and they spell disaster

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There is nothing in the world like Thursday night in Blacksburg!

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There is nothing in the world like Thursday night in Blacksburg!

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uva - the taint of the ACC
Callused perineum is a symptom of being a uva fan

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"That move was slicker than a peeled onion in a bowl of snot." -Mike Burnop

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"That move was slicker than a peeled onion in a bowl of snot." -Mike Burnop

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"That move was slicker than a peeled onion in a bowl of snot." -Mike Burnop

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The Orange and Maroon you see, that's fighting on to victory.

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Never Forget #1 Overall Seed UVA 54, #64 UMBC 74

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