That's right, there are now only ten ACC games left involving Coastal Division teams. With UVA beating GT, Miami beating Louisville, and Virginia Tech beating Wake Forest, 3 teams have been eliminated from Coastal contention: Duke, GT, and UNC. For the four teams left in contention, this is how things stack up at the moment,
once again using last week's SP+ numbers for the relative odds until those get updated tomorrow now using the post-Week 11 SP+ numbers:
* - A tie that is reaches step #7 on the list of tiebreakers, all 8 of which are 3-way ties between Pitt, UVA, and Virginia Tech
At this point, only Virginia Tech and UVA control their own destiny within the Coastal Division. Furthermore, a loss to Georgia Tech next week would not eliminate said control, but it would remove any chance of winning the Coastal with a loss to Pitt. Also, in the case of wins over GT and UVA and a loss to Pitt, we would still have a decent shot of winning the division, depending on how the other games shake out (57% VT, 37% Pitt, 3% UVA, 3% Tie).
While UVA's chunk on each graph is still overwhelmingly large and slightly bigger than last week, our piece of both pies grew by a larger amount. EDIT: I've adjusted the charts to reflect the updated SP+ rankings from today, and they confirm what we already expected, that we were the big winners this weekend. Despite still holding a majority of both charts, UVA's odds fell from 72% to 66%, even while beating GT, and ours skyrocketed from 12% to 27%. We still have to win at least 2 of our last 3, with one of the 2 coming against UVA, to have a shot, but at least at this point it seems most likely to come down to the head-to-head matchup in Charlottesville in Black Friday, and I have 15 years of evidence that the numbers may be judging the situation slightly incorrectly in this case.