Coronavirus Discussion Thread XVII

From VTGuitarman's previous thread:

The current situation facing all of us is unprecedented. While TKP is generally not a place to discuss "breaking news" or emotionally charged topics, obviously the coronavirus pandemic affects us all. We recognize that TKP is a place many of us turn to for social interaction in these trying times, and discussing the coronavirus can be cathartic for many of us. We hope that we can continue to come together as Hokies to weather this storm.

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Wear a mask. Stay home when you can. Avoid large crowds.

Please...just do it for all of us?

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Can someone fill me in?

1) Why are people questioning the potential misclassification of COVID on death certificates? Is it because they read one or two articles which may indicate that some human messed up? Even if it is happening, do people think that it significantly impacts the situation? Lets say there has been 5,000 misclassifications, is that of any significance against the 150,000+ confirmed deaths? Does it somehow lessen the severity of the situation? Could these be offset by the misclassification of pneumonia deaths?
This reporter addresses the situation better than I ever could.

2) For those questioning misclassification of COVID deaths, why aren't you also questioning the significant increase in pneumonia deaths? Are you not concerned that those are actually COVID deaths misclassified as pneumonia? Pneumonia deaths are up by a significant factor, on the order of 4, 5, or even 6 times higher in some areas. In general, I don't believe in coincidences. There is a crazy infectious disease that spread around the world in months that also happens to directly impact the lungs and cause pneumonia. What are the chances that a bad rash of pneumonia simultaneously spreads across the country at a rate 4 TIMES the running 5-year average? Do we think they are totally unrelated?

3) Are the people previously "recovered" from a confirmed COVID diagnosis who die a few months later due to issues associated with blood clotting (or other known complication) classified as or associated with COVID on their death certificates?

1) Basically, if 1 was misclassified, it means they all were potentially misclassified. We have 0 covid deaths.

2) We're talking covid, not pneumonia...ignore all that noise.

3) You either die from covid on a ventilator in the hospital, or you dont die from covid at all. It's that simple.

big time S/

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

big time S/

But I get these reductionist absurd statements all the time when I ask questions like, but how do you know that, when discussing news.

For instance, I got it here when asking in a previous thread if anyone had seen studies on mask effectiveness.

Ta DAA, last thread we actually got studies on mask effectiveness, types and materials.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Part of the problem with misclassification is people that were dying from stage 4 cancer, heart disease, stroke, car accidents etc that are tested post mortem are being included with COVID deaths. These are not true victims of the virus 90% of the time.

In addition, and I only learned of this in the last week. Many insurance companies are not paying out life insurance policies for any customer that has COVID listed as cause of death. They are citing a "pandemic" exclusion in the policy. So misclassification of deaths is now causing families hardships where they might have needed that money.

Interesting comment about the insurance companies. That's pretty shitty.

Regarding you're first comment, I think MEChase is suggesting that there's not enough 'misclassifications' to drastically alter the macro-level outlook for virus's spread. AKA it's likely that only a small percentage of 'covid deaths' are misclassified.

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Are there insurance companies out there that aren't shitty?

You will see this game, this upset and this sign next on ESPN Sportscenter. Virginia Tech 31 Miami 7

USAA?

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My former tenant had USAA as a bank. Three years after he had moved out they were still mailing to my home his bank account statements. He called, I called, I tweeted, I emailed and I wrote on the letters Return to Sender: Account holder doesn't live here any more. I begged them to please reach out to their customer for a new address. Asked them to please figure out a way to change the address from my home. They refused. Said it couldn't be changed. No matter what I did, they were still sending me his personal financial information. At one point I told them on the phone that I was opening his financial information and going to leave it on the sidewalk. They told me I couldn't do that. I told them well, stop sending me his personal financial information, he doesn't live here and that should be of some concern. I wouldn't trust USAA with a bank account with me or to do my insurance because of their lack of interest in keeping personal clientele information private.

Now you might ask why this was such a big deal? Well, my former tenant was such an upstanding citizen that the police were called to my home several times because of him, (multiple DUIs and issues with his ex) even once after he moved out. I feel for him and his struggles, but I want absolutely no further connection to him.

You will see this game, this upset and this sign next on ESPN Sportscenter. Virginia Tech 31 Miami 7

This would be very different from any experience I've had with USAA. They're more responsive than any other insurance firm I have dealt with. I can't speak for their banking department though. I also appreciate that they send me virtually no mail (random advertisement once a quarter?). It's super easy to set up paperless statements.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

I also appreciate that they send me virtually no mail (random advertisement once a quarter?).

i bet it's all going to hokieflyguy's house

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Have loved USAA for 20 years now but this last experience after my wife was T-Boned by someone running a red light hasn't been great.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Wouldn't that be on THEIR insurance?

In this situation, USAA is just running interference, unless the other party was also insured by them.

Florida is different. Your insurance is primary even for an accident that is someone be else's fault. It's a "No Fault State", so USAA will have to go after other drivers insurance to repay them for what they paid out to us. We also have to go after their insurance to cover short and long term costs to us, ourselves.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

That's odd.

I was in an accident in Florida, and dealt mostly with the other person's insurance company.

I've never much understood insurance.

Edit: In thinking about this, there were no injuries in my accident, and USAA did send me a check for my car. The other insurance company paid for hotels and travel expenses. Between the two, they made me whole.

That's good to know - moved to Florida recently and it's stuff like this you sometimes don't find out about until something happens.

Which part of Florida? It was a shock to us when we had to deal with no fault issues. Not in a good way either.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

We're in Ponte Vedra Beach. Yeah, there were some other things that were odd coming from VA as well - no safety inspection on cars for instance.

Umm I'm just west of you in Nocatee. We also have like three other TKPers here in Jacksonville.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Minus 1. PCS'd to the 757 in March. Hopefully be back in a couple years. Jax is underrated.

I love it down here. Hopefully at some point all of us can get together to watch a game. I have to be extra careful though - my wife has a number of health challenges that put her at very high risk.

Our Hokie Alumni group (and friends) is working on being more active we have some challenges even preCOVID. Our area covers SE Ga, NE Florida from Flagler to almost Gainesville. Check out our Facebook page, once our social media person (me) gets kids back in school routine and I start my MPA program I'll have a lot more posts going up. We need to meet up for lunch one day when all this dies down to controlled environment.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

I'll check out the Facebook page. Lunch sounds good!

Should have responded to you as well as Highty Tighty. I know daveinop is nearby as well.

Orange Park/Fleming Island from 96-2013 (hence the "op"), and St Augustine since then.

edit: when Covid settles down, you might enjoy checking out our band. We play under a couple different names/formats but range from a 3/4 piece small footprint configuration with no subwoofers, to 6 piece 80's rock. I haven't been able to suck Fireman and his horde into it yet but if you are interested, I'll keep you posted when we are playing in family-friendly venues.

Yeah - definitely keep me posted!

As someone who liked Allstate until my wife was the victim of a hit and run (who conveniently left their front license plate at the scene), even when not at fault your insurance can be a gigantic pain in the ass to deal with, especially if your car is totaled. It took us almost 2 months to get a check from them.

Edit to add: the reason I "liked Allstate" in the first place was because I once had an (admittedly somewhat minor) accident in PA where a driver misjudged as he intentionally cut me off and the damage was to my front bumper and his rear corner. However, there were no witnesses that stopped, so it was my word against his, and Allstate and his insurance (Nationwide) apparently decided that it was 100% his fault despite him claiming that I had changed lanes into his pickup truck.

US healthcare and insurance is designed to be shitty by default. So no.

Well, not particularly.

It's designed to maximize profits to all involved, so it works in that sense.

You want it to get better? Add some transparency and don't let big pharma advertise prescription drugs.

Just an FYI on the insurance part....here is the NAIC Insurance Brief on COVID-19 and Insurance. From it:

There is no pandemic exclusion for life insurance. General life insurance covers pandemics, assuming you were truthful about your travel plans and exposure to illness during the application process.

https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/Insurance%20Br...

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Thanks,
I will forward that to the family I know that had a claim denied.

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic, or genuinely appreciative that you can send that to them. When I was researching life insurance, that was one of the things I was looking for - do the companies pay out for claims. There were several I found that they wouldn't pay claims, or made you go through like 5,864 steps to file the claim in the first place. Insurance companies make money by not paying claims. If everybody claimed, insurance companies would go broke.

Appreciative. I have dealt with only a few good insurance companies. Most seem to automatically deny claims, and make you fight for the money that you are entitled to.

When my Dad died last year, his insurance paid out immediately and without much complaint. When my brother in law's father died last year, his family had to threaten to sue to get the money from those policies.

Yeah - it's tough too. I looked at ratings, but so many of those are industry ratings on whether the companies CAN pay out. I was like, I don't care if they can, I want to know if they DO pay out. It was kinda tough to figure that out. Term life is probably different than whole life as well, since whole life is essentially just an investment fund that has to pay you something if you die. What insurance did your dad have? I'm still thinking of getting some additional insurance and sounds like it was a good company.

Sorry to hear about your dad, but glad the insurance at least paid out quickly!

Man, I wish this conversation happened 1 month ago. I've already had my paramedical exam and my policy is in underwriting. I'm a day or two away from finding out what rate I qualified for. I'm currently pursuing a Term Life policy with Banner Life.
I did ask the insurance broker if there were any COVID provisions included in term life policies that affected the payout. The broker said that she wasn't aware of any companies including such a thing. Take that for whatever it is worth.

Lincoln eventually bought the policy. They paid out within a week of getting the death certificate.

As well I actually saw a defense of the motorcycle death that was listed as a COVID caused death where the defending expert stated that it was possible that the original accident may have been affected by the rider having some reduction in facilities due to Covid but that they'd never know.

Look It's quite evident that there will be errors in any system, often these types of things can be chalked up to clerical error. It's not an indictment of the whole system but to have someone actually try to defend the error as something real and, well it coulda happened that way, is just dumb.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

This kind of reminds me of something I dealt with at work a while back. While a guy was driving his car, he had some sort of medical incident and ran off the road, and ultimately died. We were trying to figure out what really killed him -- the medical issue or the accident. If he had been sitting at home at that exact moment and had the medical issue, he probably would have survived. If he had been driving but not had the medical issue, he wouldn't have driven off the road and hit the tree. Basically, if only one of those things had happened, he probably would still be alive.

How do you know about those misclassifications? I mean, a lot of people THINK that, but don't know for sure.

Here's a link to a graph that shows deaths from all causes (you have to scroll down pretty far to see the graph). You can clearly see a LOT more people have been dying this year since April than have the past 3 years. If that's not COVID related, what do you think it is?

I don't much like this comparing against all deaths thing.

There are some that it could be argued are secondary or tertiary impacts.

Let's experiment for a bit.
Let's pretend that suicides are way up when compared to the average of many years of comparison. Very statistically significant.

The resounding question would be 1) Why? 2) How?

We can speculate that lockdowns, isolation have an impact on depression and that could be significant.
We can speculate that unemployment has made people depressed or other mental. concern and so that can be significant.
We can speculate that due to the elimination of non-life threatening medical procedures, this has negatively impacted people's lives and provided the tipping point for a decision we measure here.
Someboody's grandmother dies of it and somebody else has been screaming that it's your fault.

Then there are quad impacts.
Can't go to the beach on vacation because it got shut down. Can't recover the money. - Stress both from the loss of the money and the inability to destress this year. - vacation

Social unrest. Hey, people are funded, they are bored scared brooding, looking for a scapegoat. Let's riot.
Increased stress due to increased crime and unreast can provide a tipping point.

These all would be in support of a hypothetical significant increase in suicides. There might be smaller order impacts as well.

Maybe the suicide isn't statistically significant but in line with other causes of death could add up to an increase across broad categories?

I haven't even touched on the HOW part yet.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I'm not sure what you're arguing? That tens of thousands of people have committed suicide and the people listed as COVID deaths on their death certificates were really flu, pneumonia, cancer, and other things that people were already dying from? Are you seeing articles where tens of thousands of people are dying from suicide? I've seen articles where medical professionals are concerned that may turn into a thing, but not anything at all that indicates suicides are up over previous years.

I'm arguing that the people who think a large number of COVID deaths are really deaths from other causes are mistaken. If you look at the graph, it's actually very regular over the years, then, all of a sudden, in April, 20,000 people die beyond what they would consider a normal range. Then that persists (maybe not at 20,000, but over 10,000) week after week. I find it odd that suicides would have begun in earnest back in April. Look at the graph, compare that to the timeframe of COVID and the deaths attribute to COVID. I'm not buying for half a second that suicides are statistically relevant in 160,000+ deaths or we would be hearing about it in the news. Or, if your point is that there could just be some other cause of death, it seems odd that some other random death could cause so many excess deaths and happen during the timeframe COVID was running through the population.

I'm typing off the cuff and so, no editing and such.

The suicide is a hypotheticall example. I could have said died of diaper rash but needed something to develop thoughts on. I have not looked up or reference and numbers, it's all 100% ether.

It was example of how comparable deaths is a number we can create but have no idea what it really means without a very large lot.

of digging into many deep topics associated with it.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

2) For those questioning misclassification of COVID deaths, why aren't you also questioning the significant increase in pneumonia deaths? Are you not concerned that those are actually COVID deaths misclassified as pneumonia? Pneumonia deaths are up by a significant factor, on the order of 4, 5, or even 6 times higher in some areas. In general, I don't believe in coincidences. There is a crazy infectious disease that spread around the world in months that also happens to directly impact the lungs and cause pneumonia. What are the chances that a bad rash of pneumonia simultaneously spreads across the country at a rate 4 TIMES the running 5-year average? Do we think they are totally unrelated?

I actually haven't looked at this recently at all and plan to after work but I remember the first few months of COVID there were a mysteriously small number of pneumonia deaths compared to previous years.

(add if applicable) /s

I know you're asking rhetorical questions to point out that any over-estimation of COVID deaths has a largely negligible impact on the spread, but I do think it's interesting that the CDC is constantly revising their numbers as death certificates and autopsies are completed. Spoiler alert - the numbers tend to go up. Five weeks ago, they were only listing hundreds of deaths for the week ending in 6/13. Now the count for that week is over 4000. You'll even see death counts from early March fluctuate either direction by a few people as we learn more about the virus.

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High level, there is a logical fallacy that if part of a sample is wrong then you can't be sure the rest are not wrong as well. It has been really apparent through this whole thing that a lot of people struggle with statistics and the scientific model.

I agree with that as I see it daily but what also is not represented is that some of these questions also reflect a general cynical view of human nature.

For instance, an acquaintance here in SW VA died in Dec of heart failure due to double pneumonia which overtook him very quickly and was undiagnosed. Seeming Healthy one day, 3 days later dies on a lifeflight to the hospital.

Then the whispers start about how COVID must have been in in SW virginia since last fall.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Many people are desperately clinging to the idea that things are really not that bad. Its all a mistake or part of a coverup or hysteria or the news is just using fear to drive ratings. Anything so that they can go back to normal.

The reality is, things are bad. And they are probably going to get worse before they get better. Most people haven't really felt the economic train wreck that is coming that has been exacerbated by the pandemic. The number of evictions alone that were bottled up is going to be devastating.

Many people are desperately clinging to the idea that things are really not that bad. Its all a mistake or part of a coverup or hysteria or the news is just using fear to drive ratings. Anything so that they can go back to normal.

I think you're mischaracterizing a huge chunk of the population. They're not necessarily in emotional denial because they want things to go back to normal; rather, their life experience does not align with the numbers being reported, and it's tough for them to reconcile that difference. The human mind has not evolved to trust data over anecdotes; when you look at a this from a psychological perspective, it's perfectly understandable how someone could wave off the reporting as anything from alarmist to false. I look at my personal experience - I don't personally know anyone who has tested positive, and, talking to my friends, I have at most five 2nd degree connections who have tested positive, only one who experienced symptoms.

Edit: to be clear, I'm not suggesting that COVID is not serious, or that it's a farce, or anything like that. Just explaining the thought process behind those that do.

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it's perfectly understandable how someone could wave off the reporting as anything from alarmist to false

I didn't mean to imply that it wasn't understandable or that I am somehow immune from this. I still operate day to day on the premise that I'm not really going to be exposed. Stuff like that doesn't happen to me. My friends and neighbors haven't gotten it (even though this is factually untrue, a friend of mine did get it). My brain holds these two contradictory things simultaneously just fine even though it seems ridiculous.

I look at my personal experience - I don't personally know anyone who has tested positive, and, talking to my friends, I have at most five 2nd degree connections who have tested positive, only one who experienced symptoms.

This is interesting because to your main point this was something I was having to reconcile alongside everyone around me. Early on, we knew it was supposed to be serious, but in South Carolina we didn't have many cases at the time. People would basically say because we aren't a big city like New York it would never spread seriously here, etc. I didn't believe that nonsense straight out of the "downplay playbook," but it's weird what hearing the same things over and over again will do to your mind. Even if you know that logically it isn't true, when it is aligning with your reality (at the time) there is a temptation to give it credence. Thankfully I ignored that temptation.

However, to go back to the quote above, this was true for me until it suddenly wasn't, and there was no warning. I went from not knowing anyone who had it, to having multiple close friends, one of my little sisters, all of her friends, and dozens more people that I lightly keep up with or just follow on social media get it.

Also, the majority of these people were between 20-30 years old, every one of them is in great to average shape at worst. I don't know a single person who had a true "asymptomatic" case. The closest thing was one of my good friends who lives outside of Nashville had extremely mild symptoms, then gave it to his wife who is younger than him and in great shape and she had a rough go of it. Most people I know had at the very least a very unenjoyable several days with incurable headaches, high fevers, severe muscle pain. Some had a pretty shitty two-ish weeks of thinking they were better only to get hit with another wave.

Let's talk about that severe muscle pain. A couple of nights I have felt like my lower body is on a torture device like the rack. It's like my joints are being pulled apart. Even after if subsides I feel like my joints are loose and won't hold me up.

Wait, what?

That's my ribcage normally.

Yesterday I was working around dust and sneezed so hard 4 times in a row, I think I destroyed all the collagen tissue between my ribs.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I don't get your point.

Wait, what?

He's basically saying he always feels like you're saying you feel like after corona, and my guess is that you'd say it's probably not true

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

If he has hours of that kind of pain after sneezing, he really should get checked out.

But I kind of didn't take it that way... though I thought maybe he did mean it that way.

Wait, what?

In the end, I think somehow government steps in and prevents as many evictions as possible. This just shifts the problem from landlord/tenant issues to landlord/mortgage holder issues. I think in the end, in a lot of the big cities that have seen an exodus of some of the wealthy, have seen many businesses and restaurants close, and have been hit hard by ongoing lack of tourism, there will be a lot of evictions. Landlords will have to file for bankruptcy, but maybe the government bails them out, buys all the defaulted mortgages from the banks, idk how this stuff really works. But in every major crisis, the governemnt always steps in for better or worse. It is going to be very messy.

You have to think there will be a significant shift in the rental markets. I think a lot of existing apartments and hotels will be converted to low-income housing, when they wouldn't have been considered in that category before.

Someone smarter may understand what will happen better than I do. But I'm just thinking about all the hotels in major cities and how they will manage to survive without regular business travel and tourism.

I've seen unscientific estimates that 30-40% of the small businesses in NYC won't reopen.
Large retailers halting business there because tourists are being prevented from entering NYC by the local government and other places like Chicago, Minneapolis, Portland, Seattle having wasteland downtowns due to rioting.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Chicago, Minneapolis, Portland, Seattle having wasteland downtowns due to rioting

Lol. Willing to bet I can identify the information bubble you got that unassailable hottake from.

I'll give you this, owning property in a major metro is more stressful than usual but rumors of urban demise are greatly exaggerated. And usually spread by those eager to have it be true.

Bingo... I have friends in 3/4 of those cities and they have all remarked about how inaccurate that information has been. Some have had family members from back home calling them worried and had to calm them down and tell them everything is fine and that the situations are being greatly exaggerated.

Lol. Willing to bet I can identify the information bubble you got that unassailable hottake from.

I bet you can't because none of it comes from a television. You should know better than to assume that from me.

I have friends as well in those places. One guy couldn't get out of Chicago the other night as the bridges were all raised.

Edit: Anyway, we don't need to stay on this path as this is not the politics forum.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Television isn't the only domain for information bubbles. The idea that downtown Chicago is some sort of post-apocalyptic thriller starring Kurt Russel where people can't escape is laughable. And, I'm sorry to tell you this, but your "friend" in Portland is giving you bad information. Don't invite him to the next reunion. Or at the very least demote him.

Ok, Snake Pliskin isn't prowling around Chicago.

That's pretty easy to agree with.
But they did open the bridges the other night so he could not leave. They needed to isolate the riots so they did not migrate. On that part, you are incorrect. My information bubble is only second hand to me and is not published so, let's just dispense with this silliness and speak as adults trading information.

My buddy that moved to Portland over a decade ago to his wife's hometown is a VT grad and lives on 15th St. Near Alberta.

We talk frequently as the protesters come not far from his house.
He sends me photos of sections of Downtown.
I'm going to trust him as I know him and he sends me photos to illustrate.
I am sorry he is not the source of your information.

Again - this is not the forum for this discussion.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Again - this is not the forum for this discussion.

Why do you keep responding? Just drop it.

Because the poster above him just blatantly called him a liar and told him to quit being friends with someone because his friend is a liar too.

I would have responded and not nearly as nice.

I read it once. I read it again. I even read it a third time. I still can't see where "liar" was used or referenced.

You don't see where the poster above was an asshole? The fact my post is being downvoted and that I have to answer this is mind blowing to me. He told him to demote his friend because he is telling him lies about Portland. How should he respond? Yes Mr. Message board poster my friend is purposely feeding me false information you have convinced me I should no longer be is friend.

Snarky assholes dominate the board and it sucks.

Facts and context: there have been two specific areas of protest related violence in Portland. Neither is particularly close to the Alberta neighborhood. The closest is the Portland Police Union which is about 3 miles from Alberta and separated by I-5. The other is Chapman Square which is about 4 miles from the Alberta neighborhood and separated by the Willamette River. Across from Chapman Square are the Edith Green Federal Building and the Federal Courthouse which were the target of protests and flashpoints for violence. The entire area is at most 8 square blocks (Including the park which is about half that area) and is less than .5 square miles. For context the Portland metro area is ~ 140 sq. mi.

Both federal buildings are operational but the street(s) immediately adjacent were closed at one point.

The Police Union building is located about 5.5 miles to the north in a small strip mall across the street from a Heavenly Donuts and next to Hair Perfection Salon. Both establishments are currently open for business.

If your buddy (or any other source) is implying in any way that Portland (or anywhere in America) is a "wasteland due to riots," it is bad information. If your analysis of information from any source is that anywhere in America is a "wasteland due to riots," it is a hyperbolic analysis.

For what ot is worth I took wasteland as meaning severely hampering business. Not an apocalyptical "wasteland". This could be where you two aren't on the same page. Just my $0.02.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

It is a distraction from the real numbers. Ultimately, it is a wash.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

I think it comes down to people having an issue with how a lot of the numbers get reported daily. Total Covid deaths and total cases, etc. And new deaths being reported as a new daily total, but not as a death by date trend. For those not looking closely at the data, the headlines can be misleading.

When a guy who dies in motorcycle crash is coded as a Covid death, that does add up and skew the totals some. Especially when he is in a young age group where there are fewer deaths. Obviously, that is going to happen and mistakes will be made, so I don't worry about that.

When someone dies and does not have a lab confirmed positive test for Covid, but the symptoms indicate Covid, then it becomes a bit of an issue. I'm not sure there is a better answer; the answer is to report Covid deaths in the correct context. To me, that context is in terms of 2020 deaths relative to the number of deaths we would have otherwise expected without Covid.

The CDC does that HERE

So again, for me, it isn't about classification of the deaths. The real total is probably +/- some percentage, but if I can look at it in terms of total weekly deaths compared to expected weekly deaths. Then I can get a very good picture of things. But the media doesn't report the numbers that way.

It's a complete non-issue, imo. You can find "Excess Death" data, i.e. how many people are dying compared to what our death rate is in a normal year. It tracks the COVID death data pretty closely and eliminates the potential confusion.

Not the bagman VT deserves, but the bagman VT needs right now.

The questions around misclassification are legit. The question fundamentally is: has and does Covid 19 raise the overall mortality rate? Regardless of classification if the mortality rate has gone up then you know the burden.

Jama has a good article:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980

The mortality rate in the USA was 28% higher than expected March 1 to May 30. This stat is called excess mortality caused by the pandemic.

However excess mortality is now in decline as treatments improve and the most vulnerable who could get infected did indeed get infected.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Great Podcast episode on the behavioral economics of wearing a mask, and an explanation of why some people are so 'triggered' by the idea of being asked to wear one:

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Edit: It just dawned on me that America is to the world as Florida is to America

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I saw a great comment on Reddit (I think).

The rest of the world watches America like America watches Tiger King.

Speaking of:

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

The rest of the world watches America like America watches Tiger King.

100% accurate, but the world's fascination with watching America crumble started long before Covid-19 hit our shores.

so, voyeuristically

Not the bagman VT deserves, but the bagman VT needs right now.

Nope.

America is that smoking hot babe, and the rest of the world is that gaggle of hens saying, "I bet her boobs are fake, and you know she's botoxing" behind her back.

Leonard. Duh.

Yeah, the way we've handled this, we're definitely the envy of the world right now....that's the real reason no one will let us travel to their country, they're just jealous, lol

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Has the U.S. lifted all our International travel restrictions?

This is going to be great for the ACC.

No, there are a handful of countries in much better shape than we are that we don't allow people to travel from.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Ok, so, no.

Thanks.

I guess the State Dept Webpage would have the info.
I wonder if there is a timeline of restrictions somewhere.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

The CDC is the department that manages travel restrictions during a health crisis.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/from-other-countries...

Right now, the ban is limited to foreign nationals who have visited Europe, China, Iran, or Brazil in the last 2 weeks. The list of countries with the USA on their equivalent list is larger.

Edit: been day-drinking a lot recently.

Yeah, we don't have millions of immigrants constantly crawling on their hands and knees every single day to get here. Okay, man.

Let's say I started a nonprofit... let's call it The Leonard Put Our Money Where Your Mouth Is Fund. The premise would be that my fund would provide you a barrel of cash for a years worth of living expenses, travel arrangements, and an appointment at an embassy in a country of your choosing to renounce your US citizenship and begin life anew somewhere else. The kicker would be that if you ever choose to come back, all monies paid for your experience would be due in full upon your return.

I would guess my venture would be a complete failure.

Get off the America Sucks Bus, dude. 'Cause there are billions of people out there that would trade up in a second. It's not perfect, but at the bottom of a lot of bullshit (a LOT of bullshit) it's still the shining city on the hill.

Leonard. Duh.

Uh, I'm kind of a fan of our country. We have one of the best economies in the world, there's tons of opportunity here. We have one of the highest standards of living in the world. There's awesome and amazing things to see and do here. But that doesn't change the fact that we effed up handling the pandemic like a champ.

So what was the big screw up?

Not having a national response (still). Not using the power of our industries to establish sufficient testing capability and quick response times (still). Not organizing sufficient contact tracing to prevent outbreaks (still).

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

It's pointless to do contact tracing when the disease is rampant.

Seriously, everyone needs to assume everyone else has it.

And that, my friends, is part of the problem. I've been watching people closely, and everyone seems to think that if they know someone, then that person doesn't have the virus.

People need to stop blaming "them", and start taking responsibility for their own actions. This is absolutely an instance where "it's not you, it's me".

It's pointless to do contact tracing when the disease is rampant

false. As per, every medical professional I've asked or have heard mention which has been a lot.

Let's say it differently.

Let's point out what a waste of effort it is on a grand scale.

Testing and contract tracing work when a disease is largely under control.

Edit:

There are lots of people who want to point fingers here. Feel free. But truth be told, everywhere that opens up to any sense of normalcy sees a rise in cases. And it all comes back to physical separation, prudence, and protective gear.

If we want to have any hope of actually containing the virus at this point we have 2 options:

- Strict nationwide lockdowns, probably more strict than anything already enacted anywhere in the country

- Quick testing turnaround available for anyone who requests a test, and full contact tracing for those that test positive

Anything short of that is tantamount to admitting defeat.

When it's a little more under control, that will make more sense.

Everything helps. But none of it is the panacea that people want to pretend it is.

Social distancing and masks are STILL the best tools we have.

your comments are in conflict with each other.

But truth be told, everywhere that opens up to any sense of normalcy sees a rise in cases. And it all comes back to physical separation, prudence, and protective gear.

yes, agreed here.

Let's point out what a waste of effort it is on a grand scale.

Testing and contract tracing work when a disease is largely under control.

If you want normalcy without a rise in cases you need large scale contact tracing. That simple. Without it more cases will continue to rise because there is no information on where it has spread. This is not done when it is under control. It is specifically done when a disease is not under control in an effort to gain control. As it has worked in other nations around the world thus far.

I think the VTkey's statement, although somewhat in jest, was a reflection that the level of transmission currently going on has inundated our capacity to contract trace. For example, CA has trained 10K people to contract trace (based on initial projections on need). But CA is experiences 10K new infections a day and test results take 4 to 7 days. There is no way to adequately contract trace with those numbers (1 week behind, 1 tracer per infection. yikes). But, you are absolutely right that it is not wasted effort.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Correct.

And we do know where the cases are. Already. Because the bad cases do end up in the hospital. And people are getting tested in significant numbers.

We do need testing to be faster, more efficient, and more widespread. Contact tracing will ultimately be very useful. But in the places that are overrun, it's like bailing with a cup when water is coming in by the gallon. You have to plug the hole.

Contact tracing is not about knowing where the bad cases are. It's about knowing who the bad cases came into contact with before they arrived at the hospital, or failing knowing specifically who, knowing where and when, those cases were prior to being admitted.

Your understanding of how and why contact tracing is needed and used is flawed, and highlights one of the many reasons why the US is no where close to getting in control of it.

But wouldn't you agree it is more efficient to use contact tracing to maintain a lower number of cases than lowering a large number of cases. It is obviously beneficial either way, but it is much more difficult to manage in high volume.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

I understand what you mean and I understand what vtkey is saying. Here is the problem with that though: The US is not under control nor does it have a low number of cases so whether or not it is more efficient with lower numbers of cases is irrelevant.

The US needs to deal with the situation it has now and if it is widespread then contact tracing must also be widespread but more so. To date, there has been no successful management of this virus without it.

You're partly right: We have to deal with the situation we have now, not the one we wish we had.

Which means contact tracing is of limited utility.

We need faster and more accurate testing FIRST. If the test takes a week to get results how effective do you suppose the contact tracing is going to be? (hint: it's not going to be instantaneous)

Also, if you're worried enough to get a test, assume you have it. Don't infect anybody else while you wait for your test results.

While I think localities should be ramping up their ability to contact trace, it's currently of limited utility, which improves as the case load goes down. In some localities, it might be quite effective. Just not so much in places that have a large number of cases.

Which means contact tracing is of limited utility.

false

We need faster and more accurate testing FIRST.

everyone wants an instantaneous test. throwing our hands up in the air because there isn't that option is not a successful, nor logical strategy to control the virus.

If the test takes a week to get results how effective do you suppose the contact tracing is going to be?

Whatever testing it is, be it one that takes 2 hours or 2 weeks, the fundamental use of contact tracing is to understand the spread prior to test results. Quantifying the number of, area/region of and ideally specifically who someone that has the virus came into contact with prior to test results is the fundamental strategy of every nation that has been successful thus far.

The more you trace the more you can narrow down where lock downs need to be in place. As demonstrated in several nations now that could start at a national level lock downs, then down to a state level, then city level, then neighborhood level and so on. This is precisely what contact tracing is for.

Without it there is no rhyme or reason to where and who should be under any kind of lock down. It means any measure to control is reactive and not proactive. Zero control.

Purely my opinion/take on this, but the one thing that seems like we're going to be different than other countries is contact tracing. I think one of the fundamental assumptions (not sure if it's the right word) regarding contact tracing seems to be whether people are taking this seriously in the first place. Like around where I live, I see parking lots for restaurants jam packed to what appears to be capacity. There was the picture of the school in Georgia with like 3 kids wearing masks. I think I saw someone on here say they knew of a large party (which seems like it would potentially be one of the most difficult situations to trace unless everybody knew everyone and could remember exactly who all was there). So say someone tested positive, had been going to school, going out to eat with their family, hanging out with friends, and went to a party or 3, and say maybe tests positive a week later - that's a lot of relying on that person's memory for who all was where and when.

Compare that to someone else who only goes to work and a store or two and home where they knew who was at work, what stores could probably look up customers and employees - seems like it would be a lot easier, even easier if other countries make widespread use of contact tracing apps.

It just seems like there's probably enough people in the states not taking it seriously which seems (to me) like it could make contact tracing incredibly difficult. And I know that's not true in all cases.

Anecdotally, I know a work buddy of mine went to visit his mom in a small-ish town in Idaho. He said he and his kids were the only people wearing masks and everybody else was living their lives like pre-COVID normalcy.

Basically the more people do and interact with other people in close quarters seems like it would make contact tracing exponentially more difficult. And I think even you would agree there are more people in the US not taking it seriously than in most other countries.

yes, even I totally agree. ;)

But those are separate issues, the "need" and the "why" of contact tracing remains. The use of by individuals and the implementation of by government at all levels is entirely another matter.

That's an issue with the methodology and number of people employed to do it by a failed US policy not whether or not contact tracing should be used when virus is widespread. USA is simply not putting enough focus on this and it should be.

If we're going to throw money at the problem, I'd rather it be at developing a vaccine or fast and accurate testing than hiring a large workforce to do contact tracing which will have limited utility.

And that's what we've done.

If you want to call that "failed U.S. policy", feel free, but in the long term, I don't think it's quite that obvious.

Now if you're saying that you wonder why we didn't have a pandemic plan in place, when we have entire U.S. agencies that are charged with that sort of thing, I'll be forced to agree. We have been in total react mode for this, and I'm wondering why we didn't have a better plan and supplies. Like with most things, I assume people just had different priorities.

Everybody has a plan until they get hit in the mouth.

If you want to call that "failed U.S. policy", feel free, but in the long term, I don't think it's quite that obvious.

I have spoken to no one other than a few staunch political supporters that have said the US policy is anything but a failure.

For the last 6+ months I have worked an average of 18 hours a day and have stayed up every single night to be awake for US work hours to try to get PPE supplies into the US. I have spoken to hundreds (maybe thousands) of medical professionals, insurance groups, medical groups, state governments, every federal agency dealing with this and every branch of the military. I have spoken to researchers (independent and affiliated), to 5 separate companies developing vaccines, to countless PPE suppliers and buyers, local governments, mayors, schools, church leaders and community groups. I am in constant contact with several of the largest US corporations and financial institutions and nonprofits in America that are dedicated to helping fight the virus in the US.

With authority, the overwhelming majority of those actually dealing with this crisis disagree with you.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

It may be that you've spent 18 hours a day gathering PPE for the United States. Thanks.

But not really relevant to a contact-tracing discussion. By the way, everyone has an opinion on the U.S. response, and using a phrase like "failed U.S. policy" is just plain loose talk that has no meaning. It's political speak with political purpose.

I know plenty of people dealing with this crisis. Including people DOING contact tracing. I know how much effort that is. In places with an overwhelming number of cases, it is, in my opinion, not the best use of resources.

While I haven't spoken with Fauci personally about this, I have seen his commentary on the issue. This is what he said in July:

Dr Anthony Fauci has warned that extensive delays in returning coronavirus test results has made contact tracing pointless as case numbers skyrocket across the country.

As with all things, context is key and your missing it with the Fauci quote.

His statement was made to highlight the struggles of getting testing done appropriately and in timely fashion as well as the methodology of current contact tracing being done call by call, NOT about whether or not contact tracing should be done any longer because the virus is widespread.

In reality the methodology that Fauci wants with contact tracing (and lock downs, masks and other measures to control) is a mandatory unified national plan that uses both technology and call centers. Without it we are spinning our wheels, however that doesn't mean we should abandon doing these things.

As for your condescending "thank you" and "not relevant" remarks, you're welcome. I am working hard to make sure all people, even those that don't understand the situation correctly, has access to the protection equipment they need.

your opinion is your own, but I personally will trust those that are actually working on solving the crisis over yours and thankfully I am fortunate enough to be in a position to hear the advice and opinions from those people. If you don't want to listen to that or be condescending about it, that's up to you.

I'm not misunderstanding anything. I'm agreeing with Fauci that when test results are taking over a week, the associated contact tracing is mostly a waste of time.

I want contact tracing, too. But when the virus is spreading rampantly, as it has been in many areas over the last several months, criticizing the levels of contact tracing is just another talking point. To flippantly say the U.S. response is "failed" - also a talking point.

By the way, nobody on this board is more condescending than you when you choose to be. You should probably give others the benefit of the doubt that you claim for yourself.

I thank you for your efforts to gather PPE, but not so much on assuming that yours is the only valid opinion. I can hold both thoughts at the same time.

To flippantly say the U.S. response is "failed" - also a talking point.

Incorrect. No one is saying it flippantly, including Dr Fauci who said:

"It's failing. Let's admit it." - Fauci, March 2020, regarding testing capacities, and as the quote you are misunderstanding shows, he is still saying testing is failing in regards to delayed results. Again, for me personally, I'll trust the opinions of those actually working to solve the crisis.

He didn't say "U.S. policy is failing" in a general sense.

What he was talking about was our inability to keep up with testing. If it takes more than a week to get test results back, those tests are of diminished utility. A big part of that in March was materials. Now it's lab personnel to process the tests, because there is a LOT of testing going on.

By the way, not all testing is the same. Folks in the hospital are generally getting their test results back fairly quickly. The slower results are mostly coming from those being sent to commercial labs.

I provided a direct quote from Fauci, and it wasn't taken out of context. I believe he's a fairly credible source.

Again, false.

My comment about US policy failing was directly related to contact tracing ("contact tracing" being words I used in the very same sentence) not in general as you have mistaken. Neither did I say Fauci said it in a general sense, as I specifically mentioned he said it about testing in the same sentence.

At this point, I have spoken to Dr Fauci's office enough times where I am confident I understand his message clearly.

You and I, well, we'll have to agree to disagree at this point. good luck to you.

Please provide the full quote where Fauci said U.S. policy was failing. He didn't say that.

You tried to defend YOUR comment that U.S. policy was failing, with Fauci's comment

Incorrect. No one is saying it flippantly, including Dr Fauci who said:

"It's failing. Let's admit it."

They aren't the same statement, which is the point I was making. You said it in a general sense, Fauci was talking about testing. (not contact tracing).

Testing and contact tracing are exactly why NY has this thing under control. I live in upstate NY. I can drive to a testing station at any time, for any reason. There are three that I know of within a 10 mile radius of my house. Results are delivered in 24 hours or less. I had a co-worker (working from home) get a test on Saturday at 9am. He had his results (negative) at 4 am on Sunday.

In terms of contact tracers, there are 468 contact tracers working in our region - with about 30 new cases a day on average. Over a seven day week that means probably 10 contact tracers per case per day.

The rate of infection hasn't changed as we have slowly moved through 4 phases of opening - each one followed by a pause to understand if infection is rising again. Our gyms finally open this week - leaving just large gatherings as about the only thing not allowed.

Stating that everywhere in the US is out of control is just not true. Some areas are, but in others, testing and contact tracing are proving valuable and effective.

I agree with that.

The coronavirus is best deal with by region. Different parts of the country are in different phases.

Contact tracing is a valuable tool when used correctly. It's one of our tools, used in conjuction with all the other tools. What's incorrect is to discuss it as if it's a cure-all, or in isolation from all the other tools.

It's perfect for some situations, and not so efficient in others. If you look at my comments, I believe you'll see that this is exactly what I've been saying, or at least what I intended to say.

New York got hit hard early, and is at a later stage than most parts of the country.

In fact, most of the testing has improved significantly over the past few weeks, but not all testing is the same. Most of the people who really need testing (such as when a doctor is requesting it) get their results a lot faster now. The slower tests are mostly the walk-ups, which are lower priority.

Not saying America sucks. Saying America sucks at covid. Big difference. Our lack of a unified national response has been a complete failure clusterfuck (according to some reports, intentionally so, in an effort to hurt some certain states)

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Thanks for clarifying. The thing is, there's a trade off. Part of the American model is states' sovereignty. What's good for New York is not necessarily good for South Dakota. It's very difficult to wage anything as a national campaign against anything without rattling the Constitution. Of course, George Bush didn't mind rattling the fuck out of it with the Patriot Act... but I digress.

Liberty comes at the cost of so called "safety" or "security". At least that's pretty much what Ben Franklin mused about from time to time.

Leonard. Duh.

I would like to take a moment to say Top Gun sucked.

Five star get after it 100 percent Juice Key-Playing. MAN

Can we get some MOD help with this blatant violation of CGs??

More like proof he knows NOTHING about movies.

Turns out expertise may not be transferable to other subjects.

I can't believe you have the balls to just proclaim that Top Gun sucks when there is a study that clearly shows it doesn't.

Top Gun doesn't suck

Leonard. Duh.

But is it peer reviewed?

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

It's only a pre-print, but we know so little about the long term effects of Tom Cruise. I'm not even sure he even exists.

Leonard. Duh.

There's a sentence in that study where they refer to movies as "films", and it contains profane language. Therefore the entire thing is complete bunk, and you are a conspiracy theorist.

Leonard. Duh.

Non-COVID Leonard is the funniest Leonard!

this is clearly TKP COVID forum subtext. But, that was the point of the joke.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

F-14's are the coolest fighter ever...and that is enough to carry the movie.

Is that a Playboy Bunny?

No, it's pronounced AIRPLANE.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Actually, it's "Kevin".

yes...that was a logo used in their test/experiment group for a very long time. Story goes that Playboy let them use it as long as it was the authentic logo...even providing a stencil.

edit: a former neighbor was the backseat person for air shows and he had some of his cockpit footage...which was crazy.

When our kids were small, he got us out by the runway at NAS Jax early one Sunday morning when they were flying one back to CA...one of the black ones but w/o the logo. He got clearance for an air show style takeoff (like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hscrVEdvSq0) right in front of the kids so they got the full effect. Very, very cool experience for us non-military types.

" F-14's are the coolest fighter ever...and that "

The P-51 would like to have a word!

"Hey Bud, you wont have to hold the opponent to 17 points anymore."

Cadillac of the Sky

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Which one gets to land first?

lol

Nice try French.

"Hey Bud, you wont have to hold the opponent to 17 points anymore."

I like beer.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I think we should focus on this a lot more. Perhaps an OT thread on favorites (or has that been done before)?

Beer is good. And stuff...

I criticize knowing full well I could never do what these athletes do.

Proud to have been the one to push this into the "green" category. You the man.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

And I love sunshine, lollipops and moonbeams and puppies and the next beer!

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

The next beer is the best beer

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

It has ever been thus, and will ever be so.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Fishing is good. So is hockey. And pie.

Five star get after it 100 percent Juice Key-Playing. MAN

Hockey is not on the same level as fishing and, or pie. Like it if you will, but don't drag the others down to its level.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

You made that reply cheezy just so he wouldn't like it.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I turkey legged it to spite you.

Five star get after it 100 percent Juice Key-Playing. MAN

Time to shut these threads down....Russia has a COVID-19 vaccine, y'all

Guess it should go without saying that this is sarcasm

I got the joke.

Thanks.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

They have a vaccine like they have fair elections πŸ˜†

So the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources is requiring employees to mask up in their homes if they are on a video teleconference.

From the email -

"Also, wear your mask, even if you are home, to participate in a virtual meeting that involves being seen β€” such as on Zoom or another video-conferencing platform β€” by non-DNR staff,"

"Set the safety example which shows you as a DNR public service employee care about the safety and health of others."

No... this won't throw any gasoline on the "masks are just virtue signaling" fire at all. Stuff like this is why people are resistant. They feel like they're literally being treated like children. "We need those commoners to see us wearing masks at all times... they won't understand that we're by ourselves in our homes."

Geez, Louise, man.

Leonard. Duh.

Someone I hold in low regard once told me to wear a seatbelt at all times even while parked.

Now I never wear a seatbelt.

The Orange and Maroon you see, that's fighting on to victory.

Careful. One guy told me - no, can't vouch for it personally, but he said it seriously - that his son got a ticket for not wearing a seat belt in a car that was parked.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

People protested that their civil liberties were being violated by having to wear a piece of cloth over their mouth and nose during a global pandemic. Sure seems like some people need to be treated like children.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

It's overkill, but looking at the behavior of millions of Americans....act like a child, get treated like a child.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I appreciate all of your replies. Very interesting... and enlightening.

Leonard. Duh.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Have you seen videos of these anti mask morons? Any and all reinforcement is necessary.

Check out the one from Arizona where the son carries his dad out of a store. Hilarious.

Leonard. Duh.

I honestly don't know who I am more embarrassed for in that video, the father or the son

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

The chef's kiss in that video is the fart theets Dad's out when his teenage son picks him up like a toddler.

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

I think the issue is that America is going to extremes on both sides rather than thinking logically. Do people need to wear masks on Zoom calls when they are alone in their home, hell no! But should sherrif's be doing stuff like the guy in Florida?

Article

On Tuesday, as Florida set a daily record for covid-19 deaths, Marion County Sheriff Billy Woods prohibited his deputies from wearing masks at work. His order, which also applies to visitors to the sheriff's office, carves out an exception for officers in some locations, including hospitals, and when dealing with people who are high-risk or suspected of having the novel coronavirus.

The difference is one side is potentially dangerous to yourself and others (not wearing a mask) while the other side is (I guess) dangerous to your ego when people make fun of you (wearing a mask unnecessarily)?

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

What good is it to grow the perfect cop moustache if you gotta cover it up with a damn mask! /s

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

Are we sure he's not a Vermont state trooper?

Wait, what?

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

I totally agree - I just wanted to point out that both sides are guilty of going to extremes.

Both sides ARE guilty, and both are making it worse.

Not everything needs to be a referendum on your politics, but for some reason, it is.

And if you think the media isn't partially responsible:

The media should maybe report less on the politics of it, and more on the CDC recommendations.

Both sides ARE guilty, and both are making it worse.

In what way are people who wear masks in unnecessary situations making things worse?

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

People who are wearing masks aren't making it worse.

People who insist on making masks a political issue are making it worse.

My apologies, I misunderstood

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

EDIT: I stepped over the line again, and have been properly chastised by the mods.
For the record, I guess I deserve the downvotes, and you can assume my post was political and inflammatory, so if you want to, I'll humbly take them.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

can we please not

it's tough to maintain the "look how much restraint i've had" position when you're inviting everyone to fill in the adjectives you're leaving out, but making the content of those blanks entirely obvious by the whole context of everything you've said. See your previous comment about "wingers" and this comment about "one side of the political aisle".

Just because you aren't explicitly identifying which wing or which side of the aisle doesn't mean the comment isn't political. I appreciate you not jumping into the pool, but sitting on the edge with your legs in doesn't really help much either.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Came here to post this so all I will do is echo it. The posts that simply nod to "yeah but one side is really doing it" are just as likely to derail a thread as ones that make explicit accusations. Both are CG violations. Stop it.

Yep. Mea culpa...again. I so obviously have trouble with this whole subject and honestly cannot remain neutral or even objective at this point. I came back just now to delete the post, and will do so after posting this reply. I will also officially resign from virus stuff and stick to less controversial subjects.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Nice try, but not as cool as a horse on a treadmill.

My favorite is Adam Savage trying to run on the treadmill as a way to get sober to test the theory that vigorous exercise will sober you up faster (Myth confirmed) and then face planting himself while still drunk. One of my favorite Mythbusters.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

That video is mislabeled. It should be titled "5 minutes of cat looking at monster truck, 11 seconds of cat riding monster truck"

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Fair synopsis.

Still adorable. Treadmill involved. 10/10, would watch again.

I miss "blank"!

"Take care of the little things and the big things will come."

Why I won't follow the COVID-19 rules: this is taken from the e-mail confirmation from my barber for my appointment tomorrow with my thoughts in bold.

Please cancel if experiencing any of the following symptoms in the 72 hours before a scheduled appointment.

*Fever or chills
*Cough
*Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing Dude, when you are 50+ and you ride your bike, what do you expect to feel?!?
*Fatigue Dude, when you are 50+ and you ride your bike, what do you expect to feel the next 2 days?!?
*Muscle or body aches See points above
*Headache I've got an 11 year old!
*New loss of taste or smell
*Sore throat
*Congestion or runny nose Dude, with my sinuses, my nose probably runs 340 days a year
*Nausea or vomiting Friday night; well, I will try to avoid too much brandy

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

I'm pretty sure they list these things as a precaution if you are experiencing them without being a drunk middle aged bicycling dad.

Oh yeah I know. Just clowning around on my part. But those were my thoughts ;-)

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

Just had some thoughts on COVID to share and what better place than the COVID thread! (You're welcome, mods.)

The greater pulse I get from individuals and local leaders, the more I see that, with proper protocols (masks and social distancing), it's time to move forward. I know we lament about how bad the response was in the beginning. But that's a sunk cost at this point. We are where we are, so where do we go from here? I'm staying very optimistic about the ACC, SEC, and Big 12 playing football. Likely no fans allowed at games which is responsible. But the kids and staff need to press on, and games need to happen. This could be a massive shift in the landscape of college athletics.

And I'm thinking so much now about the life we lived pre-Covid and what we have learned. I'm honestly more cautious about standing too close to people, shaking hands unnecessarily, or sharing drinks/food. I think some of these practices will be good overall for health moving forward. And thinking about work and education. Telecommuting has exploded, so much so that some brick and mortars are closing down for good. And educationally - Syracuse Law School now has the first ranked and fully ABA accredited online law program. Covid has shifted the expectation that you have to be a part of a major metro area for work/school. I think the ramifications will be felt for many years to come.

I think we have college football this year and it's something completely unique. ND as an ACC member (which I think will be permanent from now on) and the shockwaves this will create are serious. It's been a scary time, but I hope we all can still rally together.

Nothing you're saying is revolutionary. I think the majority of Americans would agree with you. It's the percentage of the population that has decided to turn this political that is and will continue to keep fucking things up for the rest America.

Instead of two certainties in life, death and taxes, I believe there are three...

Death, taxes, and you can't fix stupid.

Yes,that's the Hokie Bird riding a camel. Why'd you ask?

Thought of an analogy for this virus this morning. It's like a grease fire. It was going to do damage no matter what. But different countries used different methods to extinguish it. New Zealand used baking soda. Germany threw a big blanket on top. The UK just let it keep burning and sat on the couch watching TV. The US is still throwing water on it.

It's always darkest before the dawn ~ Thomas Fuller

Some actual good news coming out of Yale. The FDA has approved a saliva-based test that is supposedly simple enough that many labs across the nation should be able to gain accreditation for processing it.

ESPN is reporting that it requires as little as $4 worth of materials per test, and will likely have a total cost of $15-20 to consumers, and should be able to support the shorter turnaround times that would be needed for proper monitoring through the college football season.

I wonder how hard it would be for the ACC to contract a lab for twice-weekly overnight testing results using this method. We might yet have a college football season if they can.

I was somewhat expecting something like that well before now.

I wonder how accurate it is?

I'm not sure on the math. If both results are positive or both negative, you're good, but if one is positive and one negative, you have no clue whether it was a false positive or false negative. At that point you'd need a third test to tell you something. Where are my math people - did he (or whoever did it) do the math right?

And although it's not likely by any stretch of the imagination, it is possible that someone could test twice and get two false negatives. That would be fun. /s

If you assume each test is 90% accurate, you have a:

  • 81% chance of getting two accurate test results in a row
  • 1% chance of getting the wrong result twice in a row
  • 18% chance of get conflicting results

Twitter me

And if you got one positive you should react as if that is correct and potentially get a more accurate test (that might take longer/cost more).

and in that sense, half of the 1% of matching, inaccurate tests, is still useful for keeping a potentially position person out of circulation. So, 0.5% of the time someone with COVID will slip through this screening (two negatives when in fact a positive). 9.5% of the time, someone without COVID will unnecessarily have to take a third, more expensive test (0.5% of two positives when actually negative PLUS 9% of one of each, but actually negative).

Did I do that right?

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

That assumes that the rates of false positive and false negative are equal, which probably isn't the case. Usually the thresholds are skewed to give more false positives.

Or take like three or four cheap quick tests. If there remains only one outlier, it is statistically insignificant.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

I have some thoughts about why we hadn't seen something like this yet (mostly related to the pharmaceutical industry), but posting them might be a CG violation.

I work on the business side in medical. Clients include big pharma, small pharma, biotech, medical devices, and diagnostic testing companies. Trust me, the lack of an effective rapid test has nothing to do with big pharma. Vast majority of medical device companies and diagnostic testing firms (including the 3 I've worked with extensively over the years) are not pharma companies and do not make any therapeutic products. Now one of them did get gobbled up by a pharma company and a few pharma companies are big players in diagnostics, but the people looking at making tests have no interest in pharmaceutical products being sold or vaccines being made unless they are making a companion diagnostic - and in that case, they want a test that works so the drug that is the companion for their test gets used.

No conspiracies. It is just not always easy to do.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

This would be extremely good news if it can be widely available. Testing is one of those key components in mitigation prior to actual vaccines being available.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

This is the kind of stuff that's gonna bring down the season, the teams have shown an ability to operate independently but if it starts exploding on campus its gonna get really hard to keep the teams isolated

VT '17

Perhaps. Definitely a possibility. But how many UNC players have already had covid and recovered over the summer? I definitely heard that a good number of them got it at some point. Do we have numbers? For every player that has already had it and recovered, the team's exposure goes down.

A local university near me has apparently told students to limit on and off campus gatherings to less than 10 people. A student I know told me that the police are helping enforce/track/report it for the University. Students have been threatened with suspension if they are caught violating. Apparently several small parties/gatherings have already been broken up and students suspended. They weren't huge gatherings either, <20 students.

So the universities are taking it very seriously. We shall see.

For every player that has already had it and recovered, the team's exposure goes down.

This is only a theory. Evidence is pointing towards the idea that any immunity to the virus may be temporary. More research must be done to determine how long such an immunity might last.

So the universities are taking it very seriously.

It is encouraging that some are, but your anecdote only covers one. I'm sure there are some that aren't taking it seriously at all, and it will likely become obvious which those are over the coming weeks. Hopefully it's only a few.

I feel like history strongly supports the idea of protective immunity after a viral infection. Maybe reinfection is possible, and yes, they will be studying. Any evidence that reinfection is occurring is thin right now and rare relative to the number of people that have been infected and recovered. Reinfection would have to come from a new strain or something; I just haven't seen strong evidence that reinfection is likely to be widespread. I'm willing to consider it as a possibility, but right now it seems players would have immunity to help them get through the season.

My anecdote was meant to be just that. Thought it was interesting.

Different types of viruses trigger different types of immune responses. For example, colds are typically caused by coronaviruses (a different subclassification than the ones that cause SARS, MERS, COVID, etc, but still coronaviruses). Most people develop a temporary immunity to these viruses, but then could still be infected by them months or years later.

We don't know what will happen to COVID immunity months or years after the infection, and that is certainly a part of why it takes at least 18 months to approve a vaccine for a novel virus. We need to verify that immunity can exist for long enough for the vaccine to be effective.

Temporary immunity, even just 3-4 months worth is enough to help these players get through the season.

Depending on the side effects or other risks, 3-4 months of immunity could still be effective for the general population if everyone would get (re)vaccinated. Sadly, that won't happen.

colds are typically caused by coronaviruses

FYI only around 20% of colds are caused by the 4 coronaviruses associated with the common cold. The rest are other virus strains like the rhinovirus and RSV.

My nieces college (ah to be a freshman again) is requiring the masks everywhere not in the dorm room itself. So technically, she needs to mask up to go to the bathroom down the hall.

All players need to be outfitted with one of these:

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I'm actually surprised that I haven't seen anyone suggest flag football and 5-Mississippi rules.

A cluster is five or more people. So... this could possibly just be a very scary way of saying that 20 students at UNC have COVID.

Leonard. Duh.

No. This is a way of saying at least 20 students have tested positive for Covid19 that have been linked to four separate outbreak events over the last three days. This is a lot more informative and open ended than you re-framing this as "20 students at UNC have COVID".

Separate events are worse than a single event because separate events indicate wider spread among the student body.

The tweet says nothing about isolated cases not linked to clusters, meaning at a minimum there are 20 active diagnosed cases.

The tweet says nothing about the true prevalence of disease. Since 8/3/2020, only 354 students have been tested for Covid19 according to UNC's Covid19 dashboard, which took me <1 minute to look up.

Your re-framing of this tweet would be accurate if a) there were no diagnosed cases of Covid19 that weren't linked to those four clusters, b) all students at UNC have recently been tested to confirm that only 20 students have Covid19, c) each cluster only included the minimum number of individuals (5) to constitute a cluster.

I didn't say it was accurate... Thus the could possibly.

Leonard. Duh.

If you didn't think your re-framing of the tweet was accurate then why did you post it? I don't get what is gained by high-frequency posting of noise in a thread about a very serious topic.

I try not to post noise... I just give my view point that this very serious topic is, in a lot of cases, not being reported on in complete honesty.

Leonard. Duh.

if one has to weasel word a post to make it technically correct, is that being part of the problem or part of the solution?

Here's a tweet from your governor, by the way... Florida has more hospital space now than they did before any of us knew what a COVID even was.

Leonard. Duh.

Yes because hospitals like where my wife works turned entire open areas into COVID wards. With nothing more than cots and medical draping. Meaning "more beds" which means when they cite these figures without mentioning that places like NE Florida added hundreds of extra beds we don't normally have.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Can they call it an added bed if it isn't a licensed bed? Or have they substantially increased licensed bed counts? Did they go through the CON process for these added beds? I wonder if states waived or expedited the CON process due to the pandemic.

The state is calling them "field hospitals" despite them being inside current hospitals in the cas elf where my wife works a floor in a new tower they were planning to have finished February '21.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Well... the beds are becoming available, so that's good news.

Leonard. Duh.

I try not to post noise...

As he posts noise...

Taylor, looking desperately throws it deep..HAS A MAN OPEN DANNY COALE WITH A CATCH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIVE!!!!....hes still open

Just an update with some data:

According to one reporter on Twitter, one of the clusters had 26 reported cases. So calling them clusters instead of reporting the quantity is likely UNC's bullshit way of downplaying the prevalence of it on campus to maintain in person learning. r/UNC has said the two dorms they had slotted for quarantine are now full and they are offering to send kids to nearby hotels while they await their test results.

#38-0

Another reason I'm glad I moved my courses online.

I expect to see more emails of this sort by the end of the week.

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/health/coronavirus-immunity-antibodie...

Although researchers cannot forecast how long these immune responses will last, many experts consider the data a welcome indication that the body's most studious cells are doing their job β€” and will have a good chance of fending off the coronavirus, faster and more fervently than before, if exposed to it again.

Protection against reinfection cannot be fully confirmed until there is proof that most people who encounter the virus a second time are actually able to keep it at bay, Dr. Pepper said. But the findings could help quell recent concerns over the virus's ability to dupe the immune system into amnesia, leaving people vulnerable to repeat bouts of disease.

"The antibodies decline, but they settle in what looks like a stable nadir," which is observable about three months after symptoms start, Dr. Bhattacharya said. "The response looks perfectly durable."

Hopefully this means that once a vaccine is widely available we'll be able to put this behind us quicker than we initially thought.

Dr. Pepper

...lol

stick it in, stick it in, stick it in!

This definitely means that team lock down is running out of room to maneuver.

Leonard. Duh.

This adds nothing substantive to the conversation nor does it demonstrate that you read the article. Your knee jerk reactions to what is a complicated topic with many, many unknowns are getting very tiresome.

stick it in, stick it in, stick it in!

I did read the article, by the way. I'm also looking at metrics falling off the cliff everywhere in all of the "hotspots." I'm sorry if my succinct comment disappoints you.

Instead of being tired, show me some indicators of the current situation that prove the point that we need to lock down, or stay locked down depending on where you live.

Leonard. Duh.

Metrics falling off a cliff?

Deaths in Florida from July15 - July 31: 2,440 or 143 a day
Deaths in Florida from August 1 to August 16: 2,603 or 163 a day.

That's a funny looking cliff.

This is good data. The articles show memory B cells and CD4 T-cells specific to the coronavirus are being produced. These data provide promise that a vaccine will induce the robust response desired without the threat of disease and long-term complications. I'm still guessing the optimal vaccine will be more of a combination of vaccines, (one specific for inducing neutralizing antibody; one for inducing long-term memory).

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The constant downvoting of Leonard is only proving what you accuse him of, you are not reading the article. This is relevant and not promising anything. Although the term herd immunity seems to cause claws to pop out, it will be essential to how quickly a vaccine can effectively squash the virus.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

It's all good, dude. Thanks.

I'm just a smartass. No way around that.

Leonard. Duh.

I think people take issue with the presentation: the lack of nuance, the lack of criticality, and the promotion of a certain agenda above all others.

For instance, I've spoken about herd immunity at lengths. It is hard to achieve without a vaccine logistically and there are some positive data (e.g., some cross-reactivity immunity other coronaviruses; high incidence of infection in hotspot regions) and some negative data (e.g., cross-reactivity immunity is different than immunity provided COVID-19 coronavirus; weak infection didn't provide high levels of neutralizing antibody).

The bottom line is that herd immunity without a vaccine isn't anything more than hope that the positive data outweigh the negative data. Herd immunity with a vaccine is still based on hope, but the data to be revealed from the stage III clinical trials will yield a more certain answer.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

But what did Mr. Pibb say?

Hmm.. I think I'll wait to see what Dr. Perky has to say.

Dr. Thunder is the only one I trust.

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

My boss met a renter along the beach this weekend and had a decent chat with him (from a social distance). He apparently seemed pretty decent (a MAJOR change from our normal summertime crowd), My boss asked him where he was from and what brought him to Marco Island for vacation. His answer: "we're from Miami. All of our friends come here normally so we thought we'd try it out. My wife tested positive for COVID and was told she needed to take time off and have 2 negative test before she can return, so we're spending a week here before she goes back to get follow up tests..."

This type of stuff is why aliens don't talk to us.... I swear.

Warning- Filter lost.

"Look at this... This is just spectacular.... These people are losing their minds"

Yeah, that's part of the problem.

Americans think self-quarantine is just another way to say "vacation".

Which is why you need to wear masks and socially distance. Everywhere. At all times.

Wanna take a guess at why testing doesn't work as well as it should?

UNC just moved ALL undergrad classes online.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Wow, the first domino falls...

hey that's my line

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Their plan was truly horrendous. I really hope other schools can pull this off with a better plan (and I feel good about VT's plan at the moment).

The main downfalls were no testing upon students coming to campus and dorms at full capacity. This isn't verified, but Twitter and Reddit are claiming that students were being sent to outside sources for testing, as UNC was overloaded. It seems like their plan was simply "give it the college try."

Not to mention that they are shutting down and not administering tests before students return home - I find that pretty irresponsible for a school that has a reputation of one the best public health programs in the country.

Other universities are managing at the moment - so there is still some hope that it can be done. I hope it does here at VT.

Community standards prevent me from saying what I want to say about UNC leadership.

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

They should just hand out degrees to everybody that enrolled and be done with it.

Wait... never mind.

Leonard. Duh.

I should have put money on "after the 6th day of class."

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

So basically, all of their students are getting athlete status this year...

Warning- Filter lost.

"Look at this... This is just spectacular.... These people are losing their minds"

This chart is from Yinon Weiss. He's a research guy at Harvard. Interesting juxtaposition. NY did total lock down, while Sweden did not... Sweden did ban large gatherings. Both locales started recovering only after reaching 13-15% sero-prevalence.

My takeaway is that the "virus gonna virus" no matter what. Feel free to shoot down or posit some knowledge.

Leonard. Duh.

Can any city in Sweden compare to the high density population of New York City? No.

For more perspective, the population of NYC plus Long Island roughly equals that of all of Sweden.

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

But not even close to the density. By nature someone in NY is more likely to breathe on someone else than in Sweden..

Also a factor is probably the average Joe in Sweden is probably healthier than the average Joe in New York. Also New York's numbers were badly inflated by the decision to house people in Nursing homes where it ran rampant.

I haven't had time to analyze the guy's argument, but it looks like he's a Harvard MBA (alum) and is currently running a Silicon Valley auto care startup? I don't see how he's anything more than an interested layperson. I don't know about the merits of his argument, but to present the source as "a research guy at Harvard" is disingenuous, at best.

So basically, this chart is suggesting that they per capita spread of the virus is the same in Sweden as New York State, but the death rate is significantly higher in NY. Possible explanations:

  • The Swedish population is healthier and less immunocompromised than the NY population
  • The Swedes did better to protect their at risk population
  • The measures taken by New York were not effective

I imagine all three of these are true to some degree. NY's death count is bolstered by poor policy around nursing homes that likely won't be repeated.

I would be interesting to see where France, Italy, South Korea, Japan, the UK, and others sit on this chart.

Twitter me

An additional reason Sweden could handle this differently:

They have a healthcare system and a societal safety net that means that getting sick/going to the hospital/missing work doesn't necessarily mean bankruptcy.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

It's almost like a healthcare system that disincentivizes people to seek out healthcare could worsen a pandemic. Huh... Odd...

Can you explain how 15% sero-prevalance yields lower deaths? Should we consider any other confounding variables, such as social measures (e.g., masks, distancing, public spaces), improvement in treatments, better community awareness, etc?

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Yinon Weiss is paid by the parent company of www.realclearpolitics.com to publish conservative leaning virus findings on its website.

As I have recommended to you before. Look past the superficial twitter posts and learn about who that person is, and likely more nefariously who is paying them, before posting. ANYTHING that comes from far left or right should be thrown out.

Real Cleat Politics is not exactly Alex Jones.

Leonard. Duh.

Still superficial. As I said, you need to dig deeper and understand the motivations behind the "news" you post. If it appears one way or another, throw it out. This, as others have pointed out, is noise and the equivalent of throwing a spaghetti noodle against the wall to see if it sticks.

Why cause more chance for people to misunderstand the virus when you can do a little effort of your own to figure out if it should be shared? As you mentioned I don't believe you are doing so with malice but the result is still misinformation. Take a breath and do some background research first before sharing. This is true for anyone, myself included.

Do you question what you read in the Washington Post?

I know I do, and I'm a regular subscriber.

I don't know of very many publications these days who don't seem to have some kind of agenda that biases their coverage in one direction or the other - particularly in the headlines.

It's not so terrible to know that there are people who are trying to look at the data differently. You don't need to agree with them, but to get to the truth you do need to have questioned the assumptions everyone is asking you to make. There may well be different ways to skin a cat.

Do you question what you read in the Washington Post?

yes i do

It's not so terrible to know that there are people who are trying to look at the data differently. You don't need to agree with them, but to get to the truth you do need to have questioned the assumptions everyone is asking you to make.

agreed. this case is not one of them. As pointed out Yinon is in no way a credible source of information, he is not a harvard researcher nor any manner of scientist or medical professional qualified to make the claims he makes, and the source of the money behind his articles is highly politicized.

This guy's Twitter thread reeks of cherry-picking, which has been a common form of disinformation during the pandemic, and unfortunately, a recurrent problem with Coronavirus threads on TKP. No, attending Harvard business school does not make you a "research guy at Harvard". He's a Silicon Valley entrepeneur and formerly worked for Goldman Sachs.

I don't understand why this guy (who isn't a scientist) is comparing Sweden to New York. Sweden is a welfare state with a robust healthcare system, and a healthy population, of which 35% of working people telecommuted before the pandemic (2nd highest rate in European Union). More importantly, Sweden was never blindsided by the pandemic like New York City – a global crossroad where the virus unknowingly spread for several weeks and is literally the most densely populated area in the US. Better comparisons to Sweden (567 deaths per million people) are neighboring Denmark (107 deaths per million), Finland (60 deaths per million), and Norway (49 deaths per million), all of which took stricter Coronavirus precautions.

References:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/879251/employees-teleworking-in-the-eu/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking
https://smallwarsjournal.com/author/yinon-weiss

My takeaway is that the "virus gonna virus" no matter what. Feel free to shoot down or posit some knowledge.

I'm sorry but this interpretation is beyond ridiculous. I know it's become par for the course after seventeen of these threads but I don't think there's any excuse other than being willfully ignorant or malicious in far too many of these posts.

Joffrey, Cersei, Ilyn Payne, the Hound, Jeff Jagodzinski, Paul Johnson, Pat Narduzzi.

How does the conclusion "virus gonna virus" derive from a data graph on COVID-related deaths and seroprevalance in NY and Sweden? That's lost on me. Perhaps a better question is what does "virus gonna virus" even mean?

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The numbers are pretty much baked in, no matter how hard you lock down. It's not just NY and Sweden either.

Leonard. Duh.

So, you are saying without any mitigation efforts that transmission rate would be the same?

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I can't in good faith say that. But there sure as hell would've been less economic upheaval, depression, and suicide.

Leonard. Duh.

Is there a study you would like to cite for that? A pandemic unchecked sure would do a lot to harm businesses AND people.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

You can find the numbers for suicide and drug overdoses at the CDC website. The 40 million unemployed is all over the place. Those facts don't need a study.

Leonard. Duh.

You stated that the high unemployment wouldn't have happened if we let a pandemic go unchecked. That's the claim people are asking for data to support.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Not necessarily a study, but a recent UK survey showed that possibly up to 70% of all COVID positives are asymptomatic. One could probably assume that people who don't feel sick, and are allowed to, will go to work if they have a job.

I also need to clear something up... I've not advocated for no mitigation at all. I've always been in favor of some social distancing protocols and sheltering elderly and immuno-compromised.

Leonard. Duh.

Let me say with my anecdotal reality of living in a hotspot and now knowing over dozen people (mostly aged 20-30) that have had the virus, and not one of them has been asymptomatic. The severity has a lot of variance from person to person, even within the same household, but I do not for a moment think that 70% of COVID cases are asymptomatic, especially given the %population of levels of antibodies found in other hotspots. Also considering that just about everyone who was around these people (myself included) got tested within a week of being around these cases. There hasn't been one case where someone who was around them tested positive with no symptoms. Also worth noting that many of the reported asymptomatic cases in athletes (where they are being tested more frequently, and more likely to pop a positive before developing symptoms, whereas a regular citizen wouldn't go to get tested unless they had symptoms or was around someone who got sick) ended up developing symptoms after being declared "asymptomatic." Paulo Dybala of Juventus and his girlfriend were two such cases where it was declared they were asymptomatic but later developed symptoms.

I'm just pointing out the survey. The article about it is on CNN. It did say that symptoms were patient reported, and not medically diagnosed. That could cause some variation. If I were swabbed, tested positive, and had a non-serious runny nose, I would possibly report no symptoms... as my juices flow pretty freely, living where I live. It was also stated that a majority of the participants had multiple swabs, and reported no symptoms at preceding, and subsequent swabs.

My post was in response to the pandemic causing job loss vs. the lock down anyway. As of right now, according to Google, there are around 5.5 million cases of COVID in the US right now. Let's assume that 60% of the cases are symptomatic enough to cause someone to be out of work. That's 3.3 million people that would be out of work TEMPORARILY. We've got 40 million people that have been out of work for months now with no job.

Leonard. Duh.

You do need a study to compare more and less locked down areas, to try and derive any kind of causation in those numbers though. "Pandemic makes people depressed" and "Lock downs make people depressed" can look awfully similar without real statistical controls.

I do think that there are a lot of unintended consequences to the lock down:

  • Kids not getting quality education or socialization
  • Depression
  • People being afraid to go to the doctors for non-COVID issues, and thus getting more sick
  • Economic damages that translate to health issues, food insecurity, etc for people at the bottom of the socio-economic ladder.

I think one can make a perfectly reasonable argument that the actions we are taking may do more (long term) damage to our citizens than the virus would. I also think our current healthcare system contributes to this. However, I don't anyone will be able to confidently make this argument until we are years beyond COVID.

Anyways, If you're looking for an unbiased take on this, this NPR podcast (9 min listen) does a good job of laying these things out.

Twitter me

You assume these results stem directly from lock down orders though, as opposed to people taking precautions because of a pandemic. Without comparing how people respond with varying levels of intervention, you just can't make claims about what our response is doing versus what the sickness being around is doing.

Soo you're suggesting that if there was no government mandated behavior, BUT people chose to self quarantine out of fear, that the result might be the same?

You bring up an interesting point. But we won't really know until we're beyond this.

Twitter me

Haha, not quite how I would have phrased it, but yeah. We've seen economic issues on par with neighboring countries in everyone's favorite example, Sweden. Their economy is doing a little better than Norway's, and a little worse than Finland's. Something like an 8.5% reduction. Looks like Norway's recovery is moving a little more quickly as well, but hard to say with confidence at this point. But, in Sweden, not much government mandate, but people are out and about less, are spending less, and that causes an economic contraction.

Yea, I agree. And this is where I think the safety net that exists in Sweden comes in. The economic contraction doesn't impact the lives of individuals quite as much there as is it does in the states.

Twitter me

Ah yes, becauss the US Healthcare system does such a great job when people get sick and can't work.

Seriously, do you have any data to support your claims? Or are you just making blanket statements?

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

You don't think a rampant pandemic without shutdown would have had similar results? Who would go out to eat in an environment where doing so could result in sickness or death.

Last I saw, places with a reputation for food poisoning don't do well, so how would a restaurant in the midst of a pandemic attract customers? Yes, there will always be the folks that think they are superhuman, but most would avoid places that might make them sick. How many restaurants would have survived a huge drop in business without govt aid - which there would be no need for without shutdown?

Who would go to a gym where you have a chance to catch something that inhibits your health?

If a good majority of the population started getting sick ,and some dying, don't you think that would cause economic upheaval, depression and suicide?

Regardless of the percentage of asymptomatic cases. a good number wouldn't be, and the shutdown would have happened organically.

I don't agree with a lot of you dudes, but I would never assume malice or willful ignorance.

Nice.

Leonard. Duh.

I didn't assume it. You stated the tweet was from a "research guy at Harvard" when his own Twitter bio makes it abundantly clear that isn't true.

So was that intentionally misleading or ignorance?

Joffrey, Cersei, Ilyn Payne, the Hound, Jeff Jagodzinski, Paul Johnson, Pat Narduzzi.

He's an independent researcher who went to Harvard. My post claimed nothing other than that.

Leonard. Duh.

Wow.

I have an engineering degree from Virginia Tech but if I posted financial advice, it would be an outright lie for someone to refer to me as a business analyst at Virginia Tech. If you can't see the issue, I don't know what else to say honestly.

Joffrey, Cersei, Ilyn Payne, the Hound, Jeff Jagodzinski, Paul Johnson, Pat Narduzzi.

Let's just see how the folks on campus in Chapel Hill feel about how reopening has gone so far.

Oh.

The Orange and Maroon you see, that's fighting on to victory.

Classic headline! Oh, and for those that tried to downplay the UNC cluster #s coming out this weekend, feel free to admit you were wrong.

HH4455

Really? Are we keeping score or something? What I find most disturbing is the folks seeming to almost take pleasure in the clusterfucks as if it puts some exclamation point on an argument.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

I have noticed that there are people with varying opinions/stances on Covid who are unwilling to adjust their opinions/stance as things play out and develop. For instance, there seem to be people who had an initial reaction to Covid back in February/March/April time frame and more than anything they want their initial reaction to be justified (i.e. they want to be proven right). I think there are people like this on all sides of the debate (I don't think debate is the right word necessarily, but I think you know what I mean). But I agree, it really bothers me that some people want to take "bad news" and rub it in the face of others saying "I told you so" and then take "good news" and dissect it anyway they can to discredit it. It comes across just as you said, taking pleasure in "bad news" and being unwilling to accept or believe or hear any positive news.

EDIT: Holmes, not saying that you are one of these people based on that lone comment. My comment above was meant more generally. But your lone comment does come across badly, IMO.

I can say that I'm guilty to an extent, but I really wish the lock downs and masks did work. I hate to think that we're doing all of this for nothing. However, while we may have had some impact on initial hospital numbers, I just can't see anything out there that indicates all of this was worth it.

I don't think the dudes you're talking about are so much rubbing it in out of spite. I think it's more like Ricky Bobby in Talladega NIghts when he was in the hospital.

"Don't you tell me we're all not sick! I'm wearing a mask, Godammit!"

It's not their fault. We've all been inundated with sensationalist reports of cases and deaths with little context or perspective from the national media for months now. Just a few comments above, I was accused of looking at right leaning sources for info. Maybe independently they are, but for the most part, I've found that those sources only take data from CDC and put a little perspective on it. Example... Here in North Carolina we reached a record number of total COVID hospitalizations back in June. I can't remember the number, but lets put it at 900. The local news blared that headline everywhere. The next day, they blared again, "Another record day of hospitalizations, we're now at 905." They didn't announce that 5 people went into the hospital. It was another record day. Honest reporting would take the rates and trends into account, and that rarely happens in the national media. Therefore other sources have to be considered.

Leonard. Duh.

I just can't see anything out there that indicates all of this was worth it.

You're not going to see anything in real time. We are going to be doing analysis and meta-analysis of this pandemic for YEARS to come to fully understand everything from the molecular details of the virus, epidemiology, and public health practices.

It's the same issue we deal with trying to explain natural disasters. "Why did you make us evacuate". Education has always been our goal but more and more it feels like we run up against a wall many people won't let science and education cross to convince them.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Being concerned about the effects and the effectiveness of the COVID response is nowhere near the equivalent of having a hurricane party in Gulf Shores on Katrina Eve. Your straw is showing, man.

Leonard. Duh.

I think his point is when an evacuation occurs, and the results of the disaster aren't as bad as initially projected -people go "oh well it wasn't even that bad so the idiots in charge made me leave for nuthin!!" Same thing with this pandemic. We lockdown, quarantine, etc. and then see lower numbers as a result and people go "well why did we lock down for nuthin! it wasn't even that bad!"

It's a no win situation for people in charge. Either they make decisions that stem the spread of the virus, making the numbers lower than projected to which idiots say the decisions were unnecessary. Or they make the call to try loose decisions and shit gets out of hand before you can even get a grasp on it.

#38-0

I thought that point was inherently apparent. Thanks for breaking it down for those who didn't see it.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

The lock down started in March stemmed from a mathematical model that predicted over 2 million deaths in the U.S. The model has since been completely debunked. I know, I know... you're going to say 2.2 million people didn't die because we locked down, but in actuality, the model itself has been shown to be flawed. The creator of the model has even admitted so much. Also, data is increasingly indicating that the "numbers" are pretty consistent whether areas either locked down severely, or not so severely.

That's different from people complaining about a hurricane not being that bad. I wish I could be more eloquent in making my point, but I'm incapable. Therefore, I'm going to stop. You can have the last word, and Fireman can downvote me.

Leonard. Duh.

Also, data is increasingly indicating that the "numbers" are pretty consistent whether areas either locked down severely, or not so severely.

Is it though?

The "lockdown" hadn't seemed effective because it wasn't ever truly a lockdown. Half-assed measures lead to half-assed results.

Never go half-assed, go full assed or not at all.

But if you only cheat a little bit, you are only cheating yourself.

please see my post as I believe you completely misinterpreted my 1 sentence post and turned it completely upside down, then called me out, then said you were'n't directing it at me, then said my post came across badly. . I was not gloating, and I sure as he77 was not taking bad news and rubbing in the face of another poster. I wrote one sentence that merely asked the other poster (and he knows who he is) to admit he was wrong when he downplayed and speculated that someone intended to "scare" people specifically as it related to the UNC cluster #s. That is all. You completely took my post into another false orbit. Of course there's good news and bad news almost every day about covid, and any poster can spin it the way they want. I simply asked the poster that spins stuff every day to admit for once that he was wrong in his earlier post about UNC cluster #s.

HH4455

I really appreciate this response. I typed out many last night, and couldn't post it. Of course, it isn't just HokieHolmes - so please don't take this as an attack on you. I just want to get this off my chest.

I agree that the virus an absolute huge threat, and we should do all we can, but when things go sour and people cheer it on here, pointing out they were right - I don't know that I have the words to describe how it makes me feel.

When UNC went online yesterday, that meant that all kinds of dining workers, maintenance, housekeeping people lost their jobs. More will probably follow. I can't fathom how devastating this will be to the NRV if VT doesn't make it - take a drive on 460 west at 5pm on a weekday and you will see a huge convoy of drivers with VT hang tags coming back to Giles and even Monroe county. The Triangle is strong and has many job opportunities - Blacksburg and the NRV doesn't have that luxury (for people inside and outside of the university).

When the B10 canceled, lost in all of the breaking news and arguments were people on Twitter talking about how they just lost their job due to the cancellation - some of them had those jobs in ticket sales or advertising for over a decade.

My job at VT is connected with first-year enrollment. I am not tenured and I have a yearly contract, and have been here for almost a decade. If things go haywire in Blacksburg, there is a good chance that I am on the outside looking in for the very near future, with the saving grace being that I do teach classes, which is a pretty essential item. We have been planning for the worst since March, but it is still always looming in the back of my mind about what might happen.

It is a scary time for those who work for colleges (in academics and in sports) and people (whether or not they intend to be doing this or not) seemingly accepting and embracing the cancellations is pretty sobering and saddening. I find myself glued to Twitter to see updates across the country, but find myself stressed as so many people seemingly love to point out that they were right and not caring at all about the people who are probably losing their jobs.

I used to love TKP because it felt like such a welcoming community - people seem to have each others back and be extremely considerate for an online forum. Maybe some don't realize it, maybe some love to say they were right (I know I do), maybe it is because we haven't had many social interactions in awhile and don't worry about others as much, but please just be considerate as these decisions and cancellations are going to really affect people and families not only in the US, but at the place we all love.

When UNC went online yesterday, that meant that all kinds of dining workers, maintenance, housekeeping people lost their jobs.

Undergraduate classes have moved online. Graduate classes are at the discretion of the individual schools.

Campus is not closed, however, so most if not all these people that you say have lost their jobs are still working.

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

Happy to have been wrong.

I hope everyone maintains their job throughout the semester and we can all take care of each other.

Same same.

No, I *don't* want to go to the SEC. Why do you ask?

We don't love dem Hoos.

please see my post as I think you completely misinterpreted my 1 sentence post. I was absolutely not gloating. thanks.

HH4455

Ok [long post] it appears some of you completely misinterpreted what I posted in my one sentence post. I can see how you misinterpreted it, so let me clear it up. I am not keeping score. I am not cheering about this. I am not pleased about what happened at UNC yesterday, nor am I happy about what happened today at Notre Dame and MichSt, or what is happening at NCST, or what is happening in schools in Georgia, Mississippi, etc, and every other state or school around the country where they opened in person classes, and are having cases or clusters, and will have to eventually close and go back remote learning. I'm not happy about any of it. This all sucks. And I wasn't gloating or asking anyone to pat me on the back. I don't proclaim to know everything and not once have I ever posted any stupid far-right or far-left article from some isolated incident, report, or BS source just to try to prove my point. Not once! Some posters do that all the time. One poster in particular posted yesterday that "a cluster is five or more people. So...this could possibly just be a very scary way of saying that 20 students at UNC have COVID." My post was directed at him only, but certainly any other deniers were welcome to ponder what I wrote, a some obviously thought I was mocking them, when I wasn't. I merely thought it would be nice if for once he posted that he was wrong by downplaying or speculating that someone intended to "scare" people. Of course, he didn't admit that his speculation was wrong, but I'm not surprised by that either. No biggie.
TKP has many brilliant Hokie posters that have incredibly interesting, inciteful, scientific and/or otherwise relevant covid-sports related posts that we all enjoy reading; and it's these posts that help us all learn more about this pandemic, and these posts help many of us get through this crisis together as Hokies. I generally trust and relate to Hokies and that is why I frequent TKP, but yeah, I disagree with those that post far-right/left stuff or downplay the virus or cite conspiracy theories.
I advocate for common sense. Follow safety protocols, wear masks, social distance, wash hands, listen to scientists (particularly those that have spent their entire careers working on infectious diseases), but above all don't be stupid. And I don't ignore job losses, personal losses, financial strains, unintended consequences, difficulties for parents/students, rural vs urban issues, etc. We've all been negatively impacted by this crisis.

HH4455

Let me try to clarify:

My comment was about 20% toward you and about 80% toward general behavior I have witnessed. You don't have to look far in the comment section of such articles to find talk of "I said it was a bad idea" or worse "They deserve it". Your comment was not on par with those.

this could possibly just be a very scary way of saying that 20 students at UNC have COVID

This was the original comment that was questioning the headline. "Could" is the key word here to me. More information was brought to the thread later to clarify the intensity of the situation. I do not feel like the poster would have to admit to anything here as the later comments clarified the "Could".

I apologize if my post came across as a personal attack. But, I stand by the general intent of my comment.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

I think it is disingenuous of UNC to have opened up their campus this fall. They roped all of those students into paying for housing that are living on campus, and off-campus students into signing leases that they can't get out of. If they are going to shut it down and go all online at this first sign of trouble, they should've never come back. Shame on them. Do they think all of the students who are having "off-campus parties" are all going home because classes are online? Some of the kids living in dorms will take the housing refund and leave campus, but this move is not going to solve the problem that you think you have.

Leonard. Duh.

Edited- What's the use?

Leonard. Duh.

That's a big word for them.

So we called our normal babysitter to see what she was going to do about school this semester (online or in person). Basically, if she was going to take online classes and just be around her family, we were going to have her come babysit our kids. Turns out, she had already moved into her dorm at EDIT: A CERTAIN UNIVERSITY...and her roommate is the first official confirmed case among returning students. Our friend has been moved to the quarantine dorm (the old hotel across from outback, for any Lynchburgers) and is there for 2 weeks. Interestingly enough, she didn't mention having to be tested...

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

here we go again

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Interestingly enough, she didn't mention having to be tested...

Pretty much SOP. Why have someone that was most definitely exposed to a positive person go to a testing site and risk exposing others.

(add if applicable) /s

Yep. If one of my roommates contracted it then I would assume the other two of us have it as well and quarantine with all together.

That same institution's marching band posted over 100 pictures on Facebook of them doing marching fundamentals (in block formation!) with less than a handful of masks.

I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

Sensationalist headline and totally missing the fact that Wuhan hasn't reported a new COVID-19 case since May. They're more capable of resuming their normal lives than many other places around the world. If the US (or even a given state) hadn't had a COVID-19 case in 3 months, yes, we would be doing the same.

The article is meant to provoke a response, which is typical for this particular source...

In what world is this a good idea. I apologize but I can't see how this can be allowed or is a good idea. The epicenter of a global pandemic is now cramming people in left and right. It isn't like a virus checks their passport and says ah crap already been to Wuhan no way to go back now.

China has a shaky history of reporting anyway so the fact that they haven't reported a case since May quite literally means nothing.

The biggest point is to not get "news" from a tabloid. The whole thing is written from a sneering perspective that doesn't give the whole story.

The epicenter of the global pandemic is the United States, and travel from the US is banned in most countries, including China (which also still has lots of restrictions on entry - https://www.china-briefing.com/news/chinas-travel-restrictions-due-to-co...) and is still isolating anyone who test positive. So if localities within China can mitigate community spread, they can do what we all wish we could do, resume some sense of normalcy.

I find it difficult to believe that there are zero cases there. Even New Zealand has reported cases, and they are on an island with limited access and for a long time had no reported cases.

But, if this were in Florida, it would be on the front page of the Washington Post with a somewhat sensationalist headline, even if there were zero cases in the state.

And any article that fails to provide appropriate context should be criticized. But we should always consider the source and read carefully for bias. You don't even have to read carefully to see it in this story from the NY Post.

Was originally in The Sun, which I have to assume is tabloid-like.

So from the perspective of "I don't believe the photo is valid", I'd probably assume you're right.

From the perspective of "Wuhan hasn't had any cases", I'd have to question that assumption.

The Sun is very much a tabloid. It's an instant ban on the r/soccer subreddit if you post something from there.

Are the pictures real or no? I haven't checked but it is likely there are plenty of outlets reporting it, I just haven't checked personally.

Hense the "Is this real?" in my initial post.

The picture is real, the event happened, but the article associated with it is badly flawed in the story it tells.

This is the first line in the CNN article:

(CNN)It was ground zero in the coronavirus pandemic and underwent the world's first -- and arguably strictest -- lockdown.

So your major objection is the word "was" vs "is"?

For me, this is reasonably irresponsible behavior, and somewhat a middle finger to the rest of the world from China.

Seems to me the message is "authoritarianism works", in a not-so-subtle way.

Seems to me the message is "authoritarianism works", in a not-so-subtle way.

Seems to me this isn't what the Coronavirus thread is for. Your interpretation of a picture of a pool party as a potential political statement is not necessary.

Isn't this EXACTLY what the coronavirus thread is for?

I'm just pointing out that people are pushing agendas with the news coverage. Seems to me that you couldn't have that kind of social contact without explicit permission from the Chinese government.

It's my interpretation. And I'll make this my last comment on that photo.

No.

We invite you to use this space to discuss important information related to the coronavirus pandemic, like important advisories, closings, cancelations, and impacts on daily life. We are lucky that our community has many subject matter experts in health, science, public safety, public affairs, and local government, among others. Please continue to share your knowledge!

My apologies.

Mods should also hold Mods accountable. Isn't GuitarMan just as guilty here as Vtkey?

Calling a tabloid a tabloid is not the same as taking a picture of a pool party and turning it into an intentional political endorsement of authoritarianism...

One of these is explaining the context of the article and commenting on the specific source.

The other is a personal interpretation, one that requires far greater leaps of connectivity, and doesn't actually further providing relevant information on the virus to the community.

As I have consistently done through 17 threads, I have attempted to squash misinformation, ask for verifiable sources (part of the Community Guidelines), and use my scientific expertise to help the TKP community navigate a difficult and scientifically complex topic.

If my contributions are not deemed helpful, I will stop commenting on content aside from serving strictly as an objective moderator and telling people to stop bitching at each other or simply nuke people's posts. If you think my posts are noise, downvote them. I am not immune to the rules of this forum.

As for this subthread, which has taken on a life of its own far beyond what I anticipated (I thought my initial post was likely to be the end of it), I will stop commenting.

that would be a shame and a disproportional response to one comment GM.

I know I am not alone in valuing the comments you make on this and any topic.

Sorry, just getting a little burnt out. Working from home/relative isolation is wearing on me, worrying about what's going to happen here on the ground at VT, etc. all in the background. I still believe in the importance of these threads, but it's not the first time that a comment has been directed at me or made about me that makes me feel like I should just shut up.

Indeed it would be a shame. It is disturbing to me that calling out misinformation for what it is gets labelled as showing political biases.

Absolutely do not stop commenting. I'm all for everyone commenting and I think every comment is helpful. Just saying vtkey (or anyone for that matter) may have a different interpretation of what constitutes "bias" or "misinformation" and which way the "bias" leans. So his comment/interpretation in response to a "bias"ed tabloid article/headline is just as valid as any other interpretation. Bottom line is it felt like the comments were being policed in a one-sided manner.

And for the record, I think VTKey has been a good-faith participant in all of this, and while I may not share the same worldview on everything, I think most of the arguments VTKey has made have been smart and worth engaging. Some things tend to veer in a direction I won't go (and that's true of many posters on these forums) so I don't always want to continue discussions. Hopefully my point in this subthread can be interpreted more broadly - question sources and motives, from anyone, especially known tabloids or sources that have a stake in something.

Upvoting VTKey and you to offset inappropriate downvotes. Appreciate your voice, dmcross.

Thank you.

I was trying to make what I felt was a valid point. Perhaps I pushed it a little too hard, but I didn't feel it was out of line with the discussion, and a perspective worthy of consideration.

Like I said, though, I don't wish to run afoul of the mods, as I know their job is difficult in terms of what they are willing to allow. Sometimes the conversation is only interesting if you point out what everyone else is dancing around.

Wholeheartedly agree and your voice is appreciated as well. My initial comment on this was probably snarky; Chris, like anyone is welcome to his opinion/perspective. It felt like Chris interjected as a Mod and I only intended to say that it felt one-sided to me. I should've just said it felt one-sided instead of adding your name to my comment. I take no issue with your comment or vtkey's comment.

So your major objection is the word "was" vs "is"?

Yeah. When a country stamps out the virus, they can get back to business as usual. Wuhan is no longer the epicenter.

For me, this is reasonably irresponsible behavior, and somewhat a middle finger to the rest of the world from China.

This is just so odd of an opinion to me. China, even though the virus is under control there by all accounts, cannot continue on with their lives because the rest of the US is suffering? I'm pretty sure we were having large gatherings while Wuhan was being hit hard.

Frankly I don't think China ever forgets it's place in a geo-political sense.

So when I see a photo like this, I can't help but see it from that perspective.

However you look at it, it's pretty impressive.

You don't find this event to be completely irresponsible?

Context matters, and I don't think any of us has enough information to say for sure. But to paint this event as some horrifying/shocking/whatever display as the linked article concludes is ridiculous given what we (supposedly) know. Again, I agree with being skeptical about what China reports, but their situation started about 9 months ago, they locked down far harder than we did anywhere in this country, and they squashed community spread to a great extent. They are still dealing with hot spots, as are many countries (even New Zealand).

But again it comes back to context. If such an event were to happen right now in the US, I would say it is entirely irresponsible because we are nowhere near control of COVID-19. The same would be true if the picture were from China circa January. If, however, we are able to get the virus under control through whatever means by springtime, then a picture like this from the US would not shock me and it would probably be reasonably safe if there is no indication of widespread transmission that would make individuals in attendance likely to be spreading the disease.

I didn't mean for this to turn into a shit show. I was just very taken aback (still am) at those photos and videos. I find that event to be disgustingly negligent.

You know so much more about this than I do I appreciate your insight as always.

My personal opinion living here in China.

Internationally this is absolutely insensitive. Geo-politically this was not well received in many countries from people I speak to. I had more than 50 messages about this from various people around the world, some, like those of some expressed here, very angry at it. Can't really fault people for that view even if I am more understanding of the situation locally.

Personally, there is no way in hell I would attend this event or anything like it. But if you take out the insensitive nature of this politically, it's a celebration of being free from the virus which for the people of Wuhan, I believe, is where the extent of their involvement in the event ends. I personally doubt any significant number of those that attended have any clue of the myriad of distrust towards China at the moment. There is too much propaganda here to reasonably expect that.

As a US citizen I am more personally insulted by the irresponsibility of people within the US at the moment. Because as a resident in China I have been freely going about my business day to day since the end of March. In full transparency, I just got back from a short "vacation" (in quotes, because I was still working) with my family at a resort where we were in the swimming pool with many others and enjoying ourselves in close proximity. It's something that can be done because the control measures have been very successful.

Domestically, I think every government wants to instill confidence in its citizens that they have the situation under control. Having a celebration is definitely one of those things to do to instill that confidence.

Covid aside...No way I am attending that pool party. Claustrophobia in water, no thank you! I only tolerate crowds like that if I'm at Lane Stadium, Lane Stadium North, TOTS, or the occasional concert.

I'm with you, brother. I refuse to even get near the wave pool at the water park. That just looks like a severely serious sanitation situation.

Leonard. Duh.

When I was in high school I spent one spring break living with my sister's friend in East AJ. We went to a showing of JAWS in the war memorial pool. Can't for the life of me remember why that was supposed to be fun, but it was and helped sell me on Tech.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

LOL Jaws in the wavepool was always a favorite for Employee Parties.

ESPN. The coverage is excellent, you'd be surprised at how much you can pick up.

Herd immunity confirmed!

Well, imagine that... You actually do something and take it seriously and you can be back to normal operation.

Notre Dame has 89 new cases confirmed on Monday bringing the overall positivity rate for the semester to 15.9% and 19.1% for the tests reported Monday.

South Bend Tribune

I think it's important to note the context:

Monday's 80 cases were from 418 tests administered, representing a positive rate of 19.1%. The overall rate this semester now stands at 15.9% positive for the infection.

He said many of the COVID-19 cases have been traced to an off-campus party where students did not wear masks or practice social distancing.

And the second part of that is the problem in the US. People are still going to parties wear people don't wear masks or practice social distancing.

We need an ad that just says "stop being stupid"...

Small number of total tests, but increasing positive test rate isn't a great sign. Curious what the total number had been on previous days (whether this is an increase in tests done as well as positive rate or level tests and worsening rate).

High number of positive tests in a demographic that has high percentage asymptomatic cases....

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

And just like that Notre Dame is going to all virtual classes for at least the next 2 weeks with the possibility of the whole semester. That is the second ACC(ish) school to go virtual because of the virus.

Notre Dame

Michigan state pulling the plug now.

Update from VT & Pres. Sands:

We are receiving results from mid-nasal swabs analyzed by rt-PCR in our Molecular Diagnostics Lab in Roanoke within 24 hours of sampling. Of the 3,663 individuals tested between Aug. 9 and Aug. 16, we have one true positive and four positives from students who had previously confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Our COVID-19 dashboard will be released this week, and will be updated on a weekly basis. Should events require more frequent communication with our faculty, students, parents, staff, and community members, we will not hesitate to convey critical and actionable information in a timely manner. Although it is too early to draw firm conclusions, the evidence suggests that aggressive and rapid testing, effective contact tracing, and sufficient capacity for quarantine and isolation are effective and essential. We have strategies in place that address these needs.

You can read more here.

This is how you do it.

Lots of testing, transparency, contact tracing, the whole ball of wax.

Keep everyone focused and aware.

... and will be updated on a weekly basis.

That's not near enough when you're talking about what could be exponential growth. If they are making decisions based on weekly numbers, then they're already way too far behind the curve.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

It said the dashboard is being updated on a weekly basis, not that decisions are being made on a weekly basis.

I would hope if they get a rash of infections they are going to be moving within hours of the report.

Confirmed cluster of cases at NC State resulting from a party held on August 6th per the email my wife just got from the school.

Assumed they will be going online only by the end of the week.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

To thread 18!

ESPN. The coverage is excellent, you'd be surprised at how much you can pick up.

NCDHHS Covid Data

NC daily new cases peaked on 7/7, hospitalizations and ICU covid patients both peaked on 7/23, it looks like daily deaths have peaked on 7/30. Everything has been trending down since those dates while in Phase 2.

Public schools are mostly staying remote for 5-9 weeks in most of the populous counties. So the only thing changing in the short term are some private schools opening and Universities. It will be very interesting to see if daily new cases or test positivity rates start going up again. If they do I still expect hospitalizations and deaths to stay trending down or go flat.

The fact that everything has been trending down during late summer in Phase 2 is great. Hopefully that continues and we can get to Phase 3 quickly.

Some of those numbers are a bit suspect as testing in the state has also fallen off, however, the decreasing hospitalizations is indeed excellent news.

I would take the case numbers with a grain of salt though.

Get Angry, Bud!

But positive test rates have also fallen off. If total tests were dropping while positive rates were flat or climbing, then yes take with a grain of salt. If hospitilizations were flat or climbing while testing was dropping off, then yes, take with a grain of salt. But I'm inclined to believe that the testing has been adequate since the other key metrics seem to be aligned.

Where are you seeing the test rate stat? NCDHHS doesn't show it on their dashboard. And yes, if that is true, then definitely its a good sign for sure.

Get Angry, Bud!

Here

They show daily new tests and then below that positive rates. They only show going back a month, but I remember it being at 9 and 10% in early July, just as new daily cases were peaking. Now, I'd say it has more or less been flat for the past couple weeks hovering between 6 and 7 %.

Dude, trust us. NOBODY can accuse Governor Cooper of downplaying the virus. Nobody. We've been waiting two more weeks for almost three months to bump up to Phase III.

Leonard. Duh.

I saw a mask today that said "Governor Cooper is an asshole" today. Worn properly! Thought you would find that to be humorous.

Political post, obviously, and should be removed.

HH4455

Hahaha. I haven't seen that one. I have seen "This mask is as useless as my governor", though.

FWIW, I do not own either of these. I despise the cloth face covering. When I'm compelled to wear a mask, I go surgical, and then toss it immediately. Someone in my family contracted bacterial pneumonia, and her doctor attributed it to her wearing her cloth mask all day at her job.

I'm hoping the metrics keep trending the way they are so that on 9/11 we can hit that phase III. I'm absolutely going to a bowling alley immediately to celebrate, even though I haven't bowled since I was in youth group.

Leonard. Duh.

Another political post, obviously, and should be removed.

HH4455

haha it shocked me when I saw it. I got a good chuckle and the guy just winked at me. People are nuts.

Political post, obviously, and should be removed.

HH4455

Leonard. Duh.

With colleges re-opening everywhere the next month is going to be very telling in seeing how both the state and people are dealing with Covid. I am very nervous about the infection levels in Montgomery County.

The NCDHHS dashboard has been easy to use and track trends in NC, even on county level. WE've been in Phase 2 essentially all summer. I think there will be a sudden disconnect in the NC universities reporting outbreaks and the state's data. Not sure how efficiently the universities and labs will be at reporting the data to the state health department. It may vary substantially by the labs they are using, etc.

That is where going off new cases may be misleading and I will tend to focus more on the hospitilizations.

Interesting data from a survey that 20% of college kids don't plan on attending this fall. Harvard is called out:

Freshmen who are unwilling to sacrifice the experience of a normal first year of college appear to account for a big chunk of those who are planning not to enroll this fall. Harvard, which is going fully remote, says 20% of the students in its incoming freshman class are deferring.

1 in 5 college students don't plan to go back this fall

Don't blame them. But if they're not going to college and they cannot go backpacking in Europe or S America, then what will they do? Maybe work? That could be tough with so many restaurants and hotels and airlines running at much lower capacity. Crazy times.

I'd encourage them to take core freshman courses at a community college for a tiny fraction of the price and then transfer the credits. Of course, you need the make sure the credits will actually transfer to wherever you are planning to go the next year. If my daughter was at that age, I'd argue vigorously against her paying full price to do remote learning at any place charging $20,000+ per year.

If that is not an option, would suggest working for a year if you can. Probably differs where you are, but when we have talked to places like pizzerias, the managers are saying they cannot get people.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

At Harvard?

No. You take the classes at Harvard, and pawn the bill off on someone else. Now, or eventually. You didn't get there by not knowing how to work the system.

This year, you take a year off and do whatever if you have the means. Otherwise, suck it up and get used to the online experience.

Was meaning more in general for people who would be starting university this semester than specifically Harvard.

But since you mention it - the community college classes would probably be harder. Harvard sucks!

Seriously though, having taken and taught classes at Yale, it probably is harder to do well grade-wise at a community college than any of the "elite" Ivy League schools. With the grade inflation, someone was bad would get a C back in the late 1990s. Everything I've read says grade inflation at "top" schools has gotten worse and worse. When I would talk with other grad students who, like me, were regular people that did their undergrad at places like VT, U. Indiana, Angelo State ... we pretty much all agreed that it was much easier for students to score high there than where we did undergrad. May be a lot harder to get into in the first place, but once you are there, you pretty much have to try to get a D or flunk.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

True.

I think one of the top graduate B schools doesn't even have grades, can't remember which one it was.

In the event anyone has been following the mask feud in GA between the state governor and the Mayor of Atlanta, there's been a big update today: Gov Kemp dropped his suit against the city, and two suburbs bordering the city implemented a mask mandate in public.

Twitter me

From the article -

"Norton said he's heard from people on both sides of the mask mandate debate, but said "it's been studied and proven" that masks prevent the transmission of the coronavirus."

I don't want to debate masks, (For the love of God...No.) but does anyone who hangs out in here know of the study or studies that "proves" masks worn by the general public work? "Proves" is a strong word. To me, that invokes of images of RCT's that have been peer-reviewed. All I can find is either anecdotal stuff, or pre-COVID studies indicating that it's not a great idea for the general public. If anyone has a link, I'd love to read it.

Leonard. Duh.

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-here...

A recent study published in Health Affairs, for example, compared the COVID-19 growth rate before and after mask mandates in 15 states and the District of Columbia. It found that mask mandates led to a slowdown in daily COVID-19 growth rate, which became more apparent over time. The first five days after a mandate, the daily growth rate slowed by 0.9 percentage-points compared to the five days prior to the mandate; at three weeks, the daily growth rate had slowed by 2 percentage-points.

To answer your questions...

"Proves" is a strong word. To me, that invokes of images of RCT's that have been peer-reviewed.

If you're looking for a controlled, peer reviewed test around the transmission of covid through a cloth masks, I doubt it find - COVID-19 hasn't been around very long, and researchers are likely focusing efforts elsewhere. However, I think it's fair to say that there we know 'beyond a reasonable doubt' that masks decrease the spread of COVID-19.

Twitter me

If nothing else, it may be that masks act as a signal to show you're serious about it. To others, and to yourself. It's been my experience that people wearing masks are also likely to maintain their six feet of distance better than the non-mask-wearers.

If we're talking full-court-press, you're wearing a mask.

The mandate itself could also discourage or lessen social interaction to some degree. For example, a person that hates wearing the mask may decide to consolidate multiple store trips to one to "get it over with". Others may neglect going to the public space at all if it was more of a convenience than a need.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

If you're looking for a controlled, peer reviewed test around the transmission of covid through a cloth masks, I doubt it find - COVID-19 hasn't been around very long, and researchers are likely focusing efforts elsewhere. However, I think it's fair to say that there we know 'beyond a reasonable doubt' that masks decrease the spread of COVID-19.

To add to this point, you won't get an "RCT" (randomized, controlled trial) for such things because they would be wildly unethical. One group (a positive control) would have to be two individuals unmasked, one healthy and one with a contagious COVID-19 infection, breathing near each other. Since there is no standard of care/cure for COVID-19, this is not acceptable by the scientific community and is the same reason you won't see people inoculated with SARS-CoV-2 in Phase III clinical vaccine trials. We can't save them if things take a turn for the worse.

So it's impossible to ever satisfy the desire/demand for an RCT with masks.

It's probably as scientific as most of what we read...

For sure, I see it as more of a helpful illustration than a cold hard scientific stance.

I criticize knowing full well I could never do what these athletes do.

definitely a very entertaining way to test masks.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

The best explanation I heard, and I forget the source, is that time and dose matters. For lack of a better term, the mask reduces the saturation of germs in your individual halo of space. The longer you interact in that space, the less effective the barrier becomes.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Two confirmed cluters of virus at NC State

One within the Alpha Delta Pi sorority house
One within the Kappa Delta sorority house

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty