Hokies Rank No. 6 Overall in 2020 Returning Production

The Hokies have a lot of pieces returning in 2020. Virginia Tech ranks sixth overall in returning production, and the only ACC team that has more production returning is Georgia Tech (No. 2). Bill C broke down his methodology and how it correlates positively to progression, and negatively to regression.

Here's how the ACC as a whole stacks up.

TEAM OVERALL OFFENSE (RANK) DEFENSE (RANK)
2. Georgia Tech 84% 74% (39) 94% (2)
6. Virginia Tech 82% 74% (36) 89% (5)
13. Louisville 78% 79% (21) 77% (31)
18. North Carolina 75% 87% (9) 64% (63)
23. NC State 74% 81% (15) 67% (56)
27. Florida St. 73% 63% (69) 83% (9)
48. Pittsburgh 69% 77% (24) 60% (78)
53. Boston College 67% 54% (87) 81% (16)
56. Virginia 66% 51% (94) 81% (15)
65. Duke 65% 56% (84) 73% (41)
83. Notre Dame 59% 66% (64) 51% (101)
95. Clemson 55% 60% (79) 51% (103)
96. Miami 55% 59% (82) 50% (105)
105. Syracuse 52% 61% (76) 42% (120)
110. Wake Forest 50% 33% (125) 67% (53)
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Comments

This season had better be a gem. Otherwise I do not see how Fuente survives. And it hopefully will be used as recruiting leverage (as little as wins actually seem to matter).

I am in right the ship or gtfo mode.

the 2020 production wasn't great so.....

It actually was fairly good, not great but good once Hooker took over.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

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Only game we played in 2020 was the UK stinkburger

that was also in 2019

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Lol Clemson at 95 but they're still a playoff team

I just sit on my couch and b*tch. - HokieChemE2016

It won't matter as far as winning the ACC goes probably, but they are losing 3/4ths of their secondary, 4/5ths of their OL, 2/3 of their LB's including their most important player hybrid OLB/S/edge rusher Isaiah Simmons. Because they have basically all year to prep for the CFP, they could find some OL and defensive cohesion by playoff-time, but I think they are setting up for a rather underwhelming playoff exit if they don't.

Replacing top-tier talent with other top-tier talent will generally be better than retaining talent at a lower tier (at least in college sports).

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My 2019 Season Challenge: only comment with Star Wars memes. (completed as of Nov. 29)

I have but one Upvote to give this comment.

HTHokie93

On one hand, a bunch of players returning is awesome. On the other, its not like we lit up the offensive stat charts this past season...

Total Yards Gained - 86th
Total First Downs - 75th
Third Down Conversion % - 81st
Turnovers Lost - 110th
Sacks Allowed - 77th
Tackles for Loss Allowed - 74th

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

What was it with just Hooker and ND game under QP?

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

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Sorry, the NCAA didn't think to track stats to cover for Hokie Fireman's 2020 Offseason Talking Points.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

Or you know I'm actually curious because I don't follow stats as the end all be all. My eyeballs said the team played better but do the stats back that up?

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

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Every game Hooker started, with the exception of Pitt in the rain, they scored 30 or more points. I will take 30 points a game no matter where that puts us statistically. The defense needs to step up. Not the offense.

FWIW, I had a whole thread about this during the season, but if (prior to the bowl game) you were to weigh the last 8 games heavier than all 12 (coincidently, the games that Hooker started), you'd see that we're a top 25 team by SP+:

Twitter me

This is the part that people seem to keep missing, the returning production chart does not mean clemson is going to suck and GT is going to be awesome, it means Clemson is likely to drop from #2 to #7 and GT will move up from #107 to #90.

Over the past six seasons, offenses with returning production above 60% average an improvement of about two points per game, while those below regress by about three.

For the good guys it looks like we should see a jump into the Top 20 offenses according to SP+.

It's the same story on defense: Teams returning at least 85% of defensive production improve by an average of five adjusted points per game, while teams returning 40% or less regress by five adjusted points per game.

Looks like defense should jump a few spots as well, although the gains from returning experience may be offset by a new DC and implementing a new (albeit similar) defensive system.

Whatever. It was one bad year.

Seasonal Brew means High ABV for football season and standard the rest of the year.

For the good guys it looks like we should see a jump into the Top 20 offenses according to SP+.

Are you sure about that? A 50+ spot jump for the offense seems... Optimistic

If a tree falls in Scott Stadium does it make a sound?

Looking at the chart above, VT was 24th after the QB change.. maybe not as much of an optimistic take as we might think

oh...missed that. I was wrong all around anyway. Our offense, for the entire season, ranked 56 on offense in the final S&P+ rankings released by ESPN. The first four weeks must have been REALLY bad since in the last eight weeks we improved 32 spots. That is surprising to me. I'm very curious to see how we perform in 2020. Particularly early in the season.

If a tree falls in Scott Stadium does it make a sound?

I think it also speaks to how small the gap is over those 32 spots. I'm sure it would be much more difficult to make the jump into say top 10...similar to recruit rankings. It isnt a linear equation.

The weird part about 2019 is that we had better numbers as the schedule strengthened versus the opposite in prior years. There is reason for optimism for 2020.

"I am probably too rational to be here"

I was referring to the chart posted above that had Tech listed at 24 for the final 8 games (aka the time spent with Hooker) of the season as my basis.

Whatever. It was one bad year.

Seasonal Brew means High ABV for football season and standard the rest of the year.

We did that with a Sophomore, a R-Fr, and 2 true Freshman starting on the offensive line.

This board sucks so much that a post about returning a ton of experience immediately turns into "yea but is it good experience". Our fan base is the absolute worst sometimes.

Gobble Till You Wobble

The most toxic people within the fanbase right now are those who are jumping the gun to crucify anyone who even remotely criticizes the team right now. I've see circling the wagons before, but damn, you'd think VT was a yard away from winning the National Championship the way people are claws out against any slight right now.

Its a big reason I've been trying to stay away. Its completely polar. You're not allowed to criticize without seeing an immediate reply with "you are the reason our fanbase is the absolute worst." I mean good lord, all I did was post the actual stats of this team from this year, and the reply is "our fanbase is the absolute worst". You might as wel have just cried "fake news" while you were at it. Everyone is taking the worst aspects of TSL and spreading it throughout all social media aspects within the fanbase.

Fuck this shit.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

The most toxic people within the fanbase

You're not allowed to criticize without seeing an immediate reply with "you are the reason our fanbase is the absolute worst."

Seems like you are doing that exact thing but from the other side.

obviously the most toxic people in the fanbase are the ones who disagree with me!

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Tbf Alum simply posted some context to our production. Someone else took offense to it.

I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

I think its also a fair point that the offense with the returning QB was a lot better than the offense with the QB that isnt returning. If we're looking for context lets take a look at all the context

Some food for thought when we start seeing each side say that the other side is doing the same thing as they're being accused of:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scapegoating
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_pot_calling_the_kettle_black
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hostile_attribution_bias

Remember: the only person you can control is yourself, and you're the only one who knows your true intentions.

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My 2019 Season Challenge: only comment with Star Wars memes. (completed as of Nov. 29)

Criticism would be going through and saying why you think certain returning production isn't going to get better. Thats more than fine if you can do it.

You literally just threw out negative stats with no context just to crap on the idea of our returning production. Thats what's frustrating. Well thought out criticism is needed, but just negativity for the sake of negativity is the most annoying part of this fan base. It was that way when I played and we noticed it and it's still the same way today and obviously they still notice it if you haven't looked at their twitters recently.

Gobble Till You Wobble

"This is getting hit on the Head lessons"

"Oh, I was looking for arguments"

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I get your point, but it was almost like you didn't watch the team last year. Make the same point about the defense and I don't think you'd gotten that type of reaction. The post-Willis offense, which is what is coming back (the point of the OP), was pretty decent.

Say, did you write up a Wake Forest football press guide a few years ago? I recognize that writing style!

Agreed. However, the article just points out that, based on averages, we should score 2 more points per game in 2020 than we did in 2019. He makes a point that these numbers indicate improvement not overall success.

On the flip side, we should expect to improve on defense by 5 points per game (adjusted).

I would take a 7 point swing per game.

"I am probably too rational to be here"

Honestly this kind of perspective is necessary. I know people don't like it but Georgia Tech is ranked second here. We don't think Georgia Tech is going to be better than we are? That's why it's necessary to point out how valuable that production is.

I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

But I think most reasonable people think Georgia Tech will be better next year than they were this year.

I don't think anyone is looking at that chart and thinking it means us and GT are going to be better than Clemson next year.

Gobble Till You Wobble

Right, that's what I'm saying. Hence why it's important to look at how the returning production performed in 2019.

I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

Returning production is not meant to tell us how good the offense will be; rather, it should indicate how much the offense will improve from the previous year. Being top 10 in returning production does not mean that we will have a top 10 offense. It does mean that we should expect to see a big improvement.

Edit: a word

Twitter me

Think you missed a "not" in there, as in: Being top 10 in returning production does "not" mean that we will have a top 10 offense.

I'm shifting my Hokie focus back to football lol considering bball has fallen into a deathspiral! So much production we have to be great! pls

Clemson only returning 55%, guess they are donsky and time for a new king of the ACC...

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KCCO

We are definitely in a spot where we should be able to reasonably expect a few things for VT 2020 Football:

  • To not have a super slow start, simply too much returning cohesion at key areas on offense and defense to have the same growing pains we had with a "young" team the last two years.
  • To put up a competitive or winning effort against a PSU team that has a lot of serious offensive flaws.
  • To win the Coastal. Now obviously other teams have a say in this, perhaps UNC or Miami (with King) takes a huge step forward and are simply a better, more talented team than us, but it is absolutely not too much to reasonably expect we win the Coastal this year with so much returning production in Fuente's 5th year.

Usual suspects showing up to every new football related thread like

The Orange and Maroon you see, that's fighting on to victory.

Really excited about what we've got coming back plus the newcomers that will have an instant impact (i.e. Brock Hoffman). Barring major injuries, i think we take a step forward next year.

My only concern is those %'s definitely don't reflect the nonstatistical impact Keene had on that offense. Nick Gallo and Mitchell being able to replace that impact or Fuente and Corny being able to adjust to not having Keene will be a big determining factor on if that step forward is a big one or little one.

Gobble Till You Wobble

I think Louisville will be our most difficult ACC game.

Is it basketball season yet?

I agree, Satterfield is a very good coach, young and hungry for a bigger stage. UL will likely prosper under him with their generous budget until a bigger dog program recognizes his talent and offers to double his salary.

VTCC '86 Delta Company, Hokie in Peru, Former Naval Aviator, Former FBISA, Forever married to my VT87 girl. Go VT!

Sees a promising headline, and takes a peek in.

Sees the usual TKP reaction.

Put up, or shut the fuck up.

Amateur superstar and idiot extraordinaire.

Exactly. No excuses for anything less than a Coastal division title. Preferably with ten wins.

Not "oh the DC is young", not "oh the recruiting director is going on podcasts to shine a light on how behind the times they are", not "three tiers of WR depth transferred". In year 5, it doesn't matter.

I used to really enjoy making fun of Mike London for preaching the 5+ year rebuild. And now I'm nervous.

I have news for you: the DC is young. If the defense struggles like it did at times last year, that's going to lead to some very frustrating losses (like UVA and Kentucky).

The fact that VT had a top 2-5 Defensive Coordinator for 25 years and now he is not here anymore hasn't sat in for many. It will soon I imagine. Yes, Bud had a couple down years, but they could have been even worse. these are absolutely huge shoes JHAM is stepping into, and he is doing it not having coordinated a P5 defense before.

Well, if he struggles, then it's on the Head Coach who saw fit to put him in this position, as much as it might be on the DC. Fuente has to know this is a make or break year, and he similarly has to understand the risk he is taking by putting a very inexperienced coach into a major role.

I will not be here for the takes after an 8-4 season that the defense struggled, with almost all starters returning, because the DC was inexperienced. That's not an excuse they get to cash in year 5. Particularly when you retain said DC because of his familiarity with the system that you previously ran.

So, what is Fuente's buyout?

Less than $15 million. More than $1.

Click here to destroy wall.

Perhaps this has been said elsewhere, as I've been a bit MIA, but I am extremely concerned by the lack of WR depth, which accounts for 32% of the formula.

We all love big play Tre, but he has shown a penchant for being bitten by the injury bug. Our 2nd leading receiver is a 5'10" true sophomore with only 400 career receiving yards.

I know Mitchell is a hybrid TE/WR as well, but he will be a focal point of defenses this year without Keene and only has 361 career yards over 2 seasons. We better hope that he takes a huge step forward and that our coaches' evals were correct on these young guys. Otherwise, I'm afraid the magical run we've been pining for over the last few years may be a bit more difficult than we anticipated a few months ago before the departures.

"That's it guys. Let's get out of here. That cold drink's waitin' on us, let's go." - Mike Young after win no. 300.

I don't think you're the only one with that concern. Blackshear (from Rutgers) apparently led the team in receiving in addition to rushing, so that gives some flexibility and we do have a fair amount of receivers in the fold, so hope there's at least a few that can/will step up.

quick quick hold your breath until he gets the waiver that allows him immediate eligibility

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Ugh - forgot about the waiver.

Forgot about Blackshear, but with our luck and the general unpredictability/arbitrary nature of the portal, I am not counting on him suiting up this year. Hope I'm wrong, but even with the Hoffman situation where we had public comments from Fu with optimism, we still "lost," so I'm definitely not holding my breath. Ha.

"That's it guys. Let's get out of here. That cold drink's waitin' on us, let's go." - Mike Young after win no. 300.