Coronavirus Discussion Thread XI

From VTGuitarman's previous thread:

The current situation facing all of us is unprecedented. While TKP is generally not a place to discuss "breaking news" or emotionally charged topics, obviously the coronavirus pandemic affects us all. We recognize that TKP is a place many of us turn to for social interaction in these trying times, and discussing the coronavirus can be cathartic for many of us. We hope that we can continue to come together as Hokies to weather this storm.

That said, the explosion of comments in recent discussions has veered from useful to pointless and argumentative. Going forward, only Joe and the moderator team will post new "general discussion" threads on this topic. Others will be deleted. Moderators will lock threads as needed if discussion becomes destructive.

We invite you to use this space to discuss important information related to the coronavirus pandemic, like important advisories, closings, cancelations, and impacts on daily life. We are lucky that our community has many subject matter experts in health, science, public safety, public affairs, and local government, among others. Please continue to share your knowledge!

As always, the Community Guidelines will be enforced by the moderators as best we can. At this point, repeat offenders who continue pointless bickering and whose posts continually incite arguments will be banned, at least temporarily. Doing so is in the interest of keeping TKP a strong and positive community.

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Comments

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

At first I thought the image was related to signal-to-noise ratio.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

A lot of sports news this past weekend.

Looks like baseball is trying to get going again with the MLBPA submitting a proposal to the MLB.

Minor leaguers are continuing to lose stipends or be cut. It's is better for them to be cut, so that they can receive unemployment. Somehow baseball is able to avoid paying out unemployment for unpaid minor league players since they are still on contract. It's good to see some of the major leaguers picking up the slack for some of the owners.

The Boston Marathon was also cancelled already for the September Race date. This will likely pave the way for the other large races to begin cancellations.

And not very recent news, but I don't think it was mentioned. Hockey is planning to come back with a 24 team playoff.

And cars driving in circles that can only turn one direction, can't forget that! ;)

I can imagine no more rewarding a career. And any man who may be asked in this century what he did to make his life worthwhile, I think can respond with a good deal of pride and satisfaction:
β€œI served in the United States Navy"

KCCO

And, most important, Iditarod race countdown calendar reads:

277 days 08 hours 39 minutes 1 second

to race start.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

@ifishvtiam, I've also noticed the discrepancy between the percentage of mask-wearers in grocery stores vs the percentage of mask-wearers in other public places (prior to the governor's mask order). My thought is that folks who are being conscientious about the disease are just not going to many public places other than the grocery store, for the most part, while those who are contemptuous about mask orders are venturing out in public much more. That's why you see that discrepancy, IM(ns)HO.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

I haven't been inside any public building outside of a grocery store or gas station since all this started. I've gone on the lake a few times, played golf a few times, but this has largely been my experience so far. The people I know behaving similar to me have no issue wearing a mask to the public places they go to. The people I know who have been more flippant about the whole thing, either not wearing or inconsistently wearing a mask, are the people that are bopping around town to any open restaurant or store. Seems like solid logic on your assumption to me, and so far has been backed up in thew few weeks of evidence we have so far to work with. SC has also had more lax restrictions at each step of the way compared to VA.

Ah, the good ole days when all we had to worry about was a virus and who was wearing masks...

In order to add something informational to this post, looks like the local public pool already canceled opening for the year. I'm sure our swim club is next. Guess I'll take the kids to the creek and river a bunch this summer. Good place to avoid all types of threats, virus and otherwise.

My daughter took her summer camp being cancelled surprisingly well. Guess we had prepared her for the possibility a while ago and she is being a trooper. If the swim club and her swim team are cancelled, that will suck, but won't be shocked either. We have been able to sign her up for weekly one-on-one swim sessions for July and August, which will help. Those are allowed in NJ, but it looks like teams are probably out. We've also said we can go to the beach, but the boardwalk - even if it is open - is out.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

Our pools are open for lap swim only and you have to make reservations and only 2 kids per family which really screws over those of us with 3...

I can imagine no more rewarding a career. And any man who may be asked in this century what he did to make his life worthwhile, I think can respond with a good deal of pride and satisfaction:
β€œI served in the United States Navy"

KCCO

https://247sports.com/college/auburn/Article/Hall-of-Fame-Auburn-footbal...

AUBURN, Alabamaβ€”Pat Dye, who was head coach of the Auburn football team from the 1981 season through the 1992 season, died on Monday at the age of 80, according to family sources. Dye has been hospitalized in recent weeks for complications regarding his kidney functions. The coach had also tested positive for Covid-19.

RIP Pat Dye

Marshall began voluntary workouts yesterday. Every athlete and staff member had to be tested first. Two athletes tested positive along with one staff member. All three were asymptomatic. We aren't able to pinpoint exactly how many people with this virus are asymptomatic, but I have a feeling it's higher than we think.

Marshall University graduate.
Virginia Tech fanatic.
Formerly known as JWillHokieAlum.

Given our continued failure at testing, I think this is almost certainly true. Scary.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

I think the scarier thing is people assume they have already contracted the virus with mild symptoms or asymptomatic, and assume they go back to 'normal' life without getting an antibody test. I've talked to a lot of people who are like 'I had these symptoms back in January, pretty sure I had it then.'

I had thought that I must have been exposed to the virus (I found out I was exposed to people who were exposed), but 3 weeks passed, I went and got the antibody test, and it came back negative.

Twitter me

Other than sounding like a brilliantly constructed oxymoron...what are "asymptomatic symptoms",?

Are you maybe referring to mild symptoms?

Leonard. Duh.

Some have had no discernable symptoms at all. Nothing to alert them to the acquisition of the virus. But I think you know that, don't you?

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

I think he is just enjoying a little word play

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Very little, given the meaning of the word. Whatever.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Yea that was a typo/me not rereading my post. Meant to say something to the effect of 'mild symptoms or no symptoms'

Twitter me

I was just having some fun. I thought that's what you meant. And... I like to type and say "oxymoron" as much as I possibly can.

Leonard. Duh.

Has having the virus even been proven to provide immunity yet?

Yes - the virus has not yet mutated, and the belief (based on other coronaviruses) is that this one will not mutate. Thus, if you have the antibodies in your bloodstream, you should be 'immune.'

Twitter me

That study by South Korea was from a while back, IIRC, and there were concerns that the test was popping on virus fragments that were killed, but still evident in the system.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Yes. This is correct.

The current understanding, provided by follow-up studies performed in Korea, is that you can retest positive after recovering from COVID-19 because residual viral genes remain in the system for a little while (but not due to reinfection).

As far as proving immunity, I do not believe anyone that has recovered from coronavirus infection has been challenged with the virus in an experimental way. Also, as far as I know, no major observational study has been published on recovered individuals to statistically estimate the amount of reinfection/immunity. However, it is noteworthy that reinfection has not been reported extensively, suggesting that people that have recovered have a decent level of immunity.

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I believe that just about every case I've heard about someone possibly being re-infected has either been debunked or explained away -- either a false positive, residual virus, or maybe even that the person had never actually recovered and was still on their first infection.

The question is if the person had it in January, was asymptomatic, and it is now June are they done with the virus, is it still lingering?

The diagnostic test determines if you currently have the virus. In the situation you described, the person will test negative.

However, in this situation, this person will still have the antibodies in their blood stream. The immunity/antibody test is a blood test. In the situation you mentioned, the person will test positive.

Twitter me

the person will test positive

Not necessarily, but generally, that's likely true. It depends on if the infection generated a robust response, how long the test is administered after infection, and whether the test is compatible.

As of right now, we do not have a good understanding of whether a- or mild symptomatic people infected with virus produce a robust antibody titer. it's definitely possible that a- or mild symptomatic individuals weren't "sick enough" to have the immune system respond robustly.

Even if a robust antibody response is produced, the body dwindles the amount of "memory' antibodies that circulate in the blood system over time. The more robust a response, however, the more memory antibodies circulate and for longer sustained periods (sometimes even decades). But, it is possible to be infected with the virus, produce an antibody response, and the antibody test still turns up negative after your body has reduced the amount of circulating antibodies to below the test's limit of detection.

It's also possible to test negative for a test because the antibodies generated do not recognize the test. Not all antibodies generated for a virus are the same and one infected person will have a different set of antibodies from another. Thus, the antibodies of an infected person may not provide a positive result because of lack recognition of the test (i.e., test was designed and tested to work for a different set of antibodies).

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I'm sorry I haven't taken the opportunity to let you know that I think your new screen name is adorable.

Leonard. Duh.

Thanks! I figured it was time for a change that was more personal to me.

Marshall University graduate.
Virginia Tech fanatic.
Formerly known as JWillHokieAlum.

3 OKST players have tested positive. They are telling new incoming freshmen to not report. Of this trend plays out at more and more schools there won't be fans in the stands for the first part of the season.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Interestingly, day games in the heat/humidity of September and October are probably going to be the safest in terms of trying to have people in stadiums. By November we will have less heat, less sunlight, flu season, and potential for overlap with a second wave. This is assuming the disease hasn't completely dissipated by November, in which case we would all rejoice and happily attend games. However, not a lot to suggest that will be the case at the moment.

Not an argument for having fans in stadiums. I expect no fans or minimal fans. Just an interesting thought about some of the information suggesting it spreads less readily outdoors, particularly in elevated heat and humidity.

Also, the whole in-stadium argument leaves out another critical variable which would be the enormous amounts of people tailgating near each other.

I also think there's a little bit of irony in that by November and December (for NFL), games will be cold and fans would be bundled up and have their faces covered anyway.

What about fans that travel to away games? Think bowl games.

Not everyone where's face coverings to games in cold weather.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

There are more teams in domes or "warm" weather locations than in places where you truly need a face mask for games.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

I believe Gundy was one of the most outspoken about reporting back earlier than what most experts recommended. I think he said something like May 1st?

Marshall University graduate.
Virginia Tech fanatic.
Formerly known as JWillHokieAlum.

Wasn't sure if this needed it's own thread or not. When football team comes back the locker rooms and team Meeting rooms along with traditional weight room will all be off limits. Weights and workouts will be done in Lane and Beamer Barn.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Those semi-outdoors setups for working out makes it look like a crossfit gym.

Can't believe I didn't see this sooner, but Banner Society brought back Hatin Ass Steve Spurrier for his thoughts on COVID and boy are there some gems.

You wanna stop COVID-19, tell Pat Narduzzi it's his offense on the one-yard line.

Y'all think FSU's gonna have tutors take the coronavirus tests for the players outta habit?

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Notre Dame's not on Zoom because it would mean joining a conference.

bwahahaha

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Hate these mixed messages. Do you want UNC to manipulate the curve or not?

You wanna stop COVID-19, put it on Miami's depth chart as a QB.

It's an unwritten law that it's my lunch pail. I've issued the challenge. If someone outworks me, they can get it.
Darryl Tapp

In Virginia, we move to phase II of opening, tomorrow, 5 June.
Not much has changed except you are allowed indoors in the food/beverage establishment.

50% lowest rated capacity.
Bar seating is not open.
No games such as pool, pinball, darts, bocce ball, cornhole, etc.

No refillable containers such as growlers, mug club, etc.
No groups of larger than 50.

Everything else still applies, 6ft, masks except when stuffing face,

This is going to be great for the ACC.

No refillable containers such as growlers, mug club, etc.

How much will that impact your business, do you think?

I know it's easier for those making the guidelines to just ban them, but do you think there may be some way to sanitize them onsite that might be implemented down the road?

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

This was part of phase 1 and something that other breweries were doing before that.
Specifically I asked the question why this was a rule for phase 1. I was told that the thought was that bringing just another thing in from outside where it may be contaminated with the virus, was more than the government was willing to risk.

I had already developed a plan where patrons came in with their name on their growler and placed them on a table in the sun. After a period of time, a gloved employee would put them in a bus tub and sprayed with a sanitizer, rested the required period of time for the sanitizer activation, then brought inside and chilled so it could be filled on demand.

We were never able to implement that.

We can fill crowlers and new growlers. We've been doing ok with this so far but it's frustrating.

They could have instead made the rule that you cannot bring unsanitized reusable containers into the space. It would accomplish their stated goal and be a better solution than selling many single use containers, such as crowlers and 12 oz bottles in 6-packs and cases, which are then discarded as well as having to be purchased anew.

Sorry, a little long but I think people are aware of my being on top of this issue and have a strong point of view.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I need to add an amendment.

Phase II does not apply to Northern Virginia and Richmond.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

More and more people not wearing masks here in my small town. Funny, though, how those folks will find a mask to shop Food Lion or the local ABC store, places that seem to be on board with mask requirements. A guy I know made fun of me for wearing what he called my "idiot mask". He's one of those who feels himself the most informed person in America, and gets it all on the internet.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Per the latest I've read from the CDC, symptomatic case fatality rate is thought to be 0.4% based on best current data.
Link

Given that the CDC also believes that the percentage of cases that are symptomatic is approximately 65%, my rudimentary math leads me to believe that the total case fatality rate is around 0.26%.

Is my math right? And if yes, how does a total case fatality rate of 0.26% compare to other similar infectious diseases and what does that mean for the long term probability of the current precautions remaining in place?

Edit: apparently the CDC data isn't reliable. Since there's no consensus on a reliable source for data that I'm aware of, I think I'm just going to go fishing and golfing until hunting season (I'll wear a mask when I enter the bait shop) and stay away from this and any other covid related conversations. See yall in the fishing thread!

It's difficult to compare to other diseases because the handling of them aren't the same. The stay-at-home orders were new, and weren't applied to other instances. While it's nice to see a low fatality rate, it's difficult to know what it would have been had things not been sheltered like other times. For that reason, you can compare rates, but it's not a 1-for-1 comparison.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

That's fine, and understood.

What about the second part of my question? Since we now think we see a low case fatality rate, do you think we'll see these restrictions linger? Become part of every day life forever? Or go away completely soon?

I think what's more important, at least for the restrictions, than the case fatality rate is the case hospitalization rate. IIRC, distancing and stay-at-home orders were put in place in order to flatten the curve for hospital capacity reasons, because when the system is overwhelmed, that's when the case fatality rate soars. See Italy. So I think the continuation of restrictions would be based on the case hospitalization rate, which I haven't seen any public data about.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

That same link includes symptomatic case hospitalization rates. Current best estimate is 3.4%.

Most of my clients (western Virginia) are below census still due to the previous restrictions on elective surgeries and people avoiding the hospital for non-Covid issues. In areas like ours it would seem appropriate to continue and even expedite the reduction in restrictions.

That's a pretty high fatality rate, but I don't think gov't entities are using fatality rate in isolation as a reason for any COVID-19 measures. The COVID-19 related considerations also include, rate of disease spread, how disease is spread, the ability to identify the infected, the ability to trace back those contacted, hospital capacity, availability of treatments, availability of vaccine, crowd size, and the level of interaction between individuals. There are also economic and social factors to consider too.

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None of the data in that link is current

Parameter values are based on data received by CDC prior to 4/29/2020

and

Β§ Estimates only include onset dates between March 1, 2020 – March 31, 2020 to ensure cases have had sufficient time to observe the outcome (hospital admission or death).

ΒΆ Estimates only include hospital admission dates between March 1, 2020 – March 31, 2020 to ensure cases have had sufficient time to observe the outcome (hospital discharge or death).

** Estimates only include death dates between March 1, 2020 – March 31, 2020 to ensure sufficient time for reporting.

Here are some real numbers. Currently, Florida's CFR is 4.3%; Florida's CHR is 17.5%. We don't and likely won't ever know the IFR. And right now, it is almost pointless to guess.

For me, the most striking thing about the stats is the demography. As of May 19 (Tampa Tribune), 83% of covid-related deaths in FL were people 65 and older. 25% of people 85 and older known to be infected, died. Average age of deceased was 77.

While there have been some tragedies in the younger population (my daughter-in-law's college RA was 30...couldn't get tested until it was too late...the scenario we've heard quite a few times now), at the macro level, this disease doesn't seem like a really big deal for the under 40 folks. And if I was under 55, I don't think I'd be too worried about myself.

But 65 and over (and today I turned 65 so I'm sensitive to this), it's a much bigger deal. My odds of dying are over 10 times greater than my bandmates...and even if I would survive, that doesn't include the increased likelihood of an extended hospital stay or permanent damage to other organs (is anyone calculating a Case Expense Rate or Case Permanent Damage Rate?).

The policies are being set to deal with the worst case scenarios and to protect the most vulnerable. Governors like DeSantis are pushing the envelope in re-opening and we'll see what the results are...cases in FL are on the rise. But is that just the result of testing more people? Does it really mean more deaths?

Like someone said in this thread and I have said before; track the hospitalizations; track the deaths; test and monitor like hell; and then manage accordingly. If I was still running my old office, I'd probably base telework policies on age and possible exposure to older people.

CDC's models have been OBE (overtaken by events) for awhile now and we know their public statements are now heavily censored. I used to keep a firewall between the science and public policy sides of the house. Let each side do what they do best and then let the people with the big salaries earn their keep. The big problem/temptation, and I know of many examples (we see it everyday in the news on this topic), is when science wants to set policy and when policy wants a particular result from science.

On a lighter note, Happy Birthday.

Happy birthday.

thanks! to both of you.

Welcome. Sorry it's a shitty time to try to celebrate. Also, I didn't do your advice (I think it was you) justice with the fishing in Flagler. I got bit by more insects than my line did fish, and I only have about a dozen bug bites, so that shows you how low a bar I set.

give me a heads up when you make your fall trek, maybe we can spend a day in the boat

OT! OT! I'm gonna tell the moderators.
And yeah, happy birthday and hope your back's out of the shop.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

switched from muscle relaxer to corticosteroid today...fingers crossed...I'm tired of this ****

Man I'd love that, thanks! If we can make it work, I'll pay for gas, food, beer (during and/or after), and then some. I appreciate the offer!

Was surprised that St. John's has as many deaths of people under 50 that we do. Out of 6 deaths one was 2 years old and one was 49.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

yeah. I think those outliers are really hard to predict...and I'd bet most all of them had something else going on.

The correlation of increasing risk of mortality with increasing age doesn't require any sophisticated statistics or models. Limiting exposure to the over 50 crowd is the key to minimizing deaths from covid-19...however the hell we do that. For example, sending kids to school isn't the challenge...but absent a vaccine, getting them there and back, and feeding and teaching them without killing some of the adults along the way is another thing altogether.

Interesting times.

I think it's interesting that in the middle east, some factions that don't get along have already said they'll use the first vaccine they can get no matter who produces it. Hopefully, we are willing to do the same.

Any port in a storm.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Brazil agreed to trial the Oxford vaccine. Good news for speeding up efficacy evaluation since its spreading like wildfire there.

Conspiracy theories will roll if a chinese vaccine rolls out before any others considering that the virus originated in China.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

And people will ignore that they had a 2-3 month head start on research due to where it started.

The first 2 clinical trials are from Moderna and the Chinese company (can't remember name), which began clinical trials on the same day. The other companies began clinical trials within the month or so. That's not a head start there... πŸ€·β€β™‚οΈ

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Yea, the selected vaccines seem not to be based on the science alone. It would be better if the US would push a broader spectrum of vaccine technologies. The tried-and-true technologies (also showing best efficacy) are not included in the 5 selected for "warp speed" development.

Here's a good (but long) pre-print opinion article from scientists: LInk

The last paragraphy provides some perspective:

If protection against SARS-CoV-2 requires only fairly modest serum antibody titers, then
the most easily produced vaccine designs could succeed. But if much higher titers are needed,
those vaccines may need to be replaced, or supplemented, by other components that are perhaps
produced by another company or in a different country. For example, an American mRNA vaccine
may work better if boosted by a Chinese killed virus preparation, a British adenovirus vector when
followed by a recombinant protein made within the European Community. Even if an effective
vaccine is identified, it will be challenging to manufacture and distribute on the scale needed to
immunize a significant fraction of the world's population (Hosangadi et al., 2020). An effective
vaccine that is too complex to make in bulk, or is difficult to formulate, is highly unstable without
refrigeration or freezing, is challenging to administer or that requires too many doses over a
prolonged period may represent a Pyrrhic victory for science, but not the answer to the problems
faced by the societies that science serves. The complexities of developing a vaccine at ultra-short
notice are best tackled by the melding of minds irrespective of wherever the bodies are
geographically located (Rourke et al., 2020). Will this happen? We hope so, but fear it may not
(Cohen, 2020d).

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Florida cases are up significantly in the last week; while overall hospitalization rate has declined by a point and a half over the same period. I'd interpret that as testing is increasing and picking up many more individuals with less severe or no symptoms, though the median age of the cases is up a year to 54...it was at 53 for several weeks. The death figures lag quite a bit so will be interesting to see where they are in a week or 2; they averaged a little over 30/day over the last half of May.

Here in SC we had our single day record for new cases a couple days ago. Just about every state that aggressively reopened has seen notable spikes in cases. I follow the national numbers everyday and while they are getting better, they are getting better slowly, and while the testing total numbers have gone up significantly, the % positive rate has fluctuated between 7-5% with already a few upticks after dropping consistently for a few weeks.

I'm also interested (hoping they are small) to see if hospitalizations and deaths go up as well, because as you said these numbers naturally lag behind the positive test numbers.

I've heard some chatter that we've gotten better at treating it, but I've yet to see a written explanation of how that is the case.

If anyone is interested in seeing a short daily breakdown via twitter of the national numbers, with each day, yesterday's, and a week ago that day's numbers for comparison then give Nate Silver from 538 a follow.

worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ is an easy quick glance as well

re: just about every state that aggressively reopened has seen notable spikes in cases.

I think FL has made every reopening move about 2 weeks too soon. We were well on track to be under a hundred cases/day statewide and zero'd out in several counties if they had waited 'til Mid-May.

As closely and as publicly as the outbreak has been tracked, it's pretty easy to get a good grasp the cost/benefit of the timing of decisions and events

I'd be curious to see how these numbers are impacted when crossed with people that have traveled from other places.

For instance, if this is a natural result of snowbirds traveling from locations more heavily impacted.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

snowbirds are emigrating right now

How many snowbirds are really wanting to go back to New York and New England?

My 85 year old grandmother just booked a flight for NY in August. She says Florida is too hot. Obviously we are trying to convince her to rethink it. But I think a lot of people that have been isolated in assisted living condos will be making a run for it when it's 110 degrees everyday "and can't go on walks".

"What are you going to do, stab me? - Quote from Man Stabbed

Are Dade, Broward, Palm Beach any better than the NE?

We live just off the ICW in St Augustine; there has been a steady stream of large boats headed north since March.

I live in a neighborhood where more than half of the homeowners are snowbirds with winter houses in FL (mostly Naples & Bonita Springs). All of them have come back within the last two weeks..

good info.; much more snowbird habitat where you are than here.

looks like the case load in Collier and Lee is blowing up at a rate approaching 5x that of NEFL since June 1

I suspect schedules were altered this year. I know my parents left MD for FL several weeks ago.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I have been staying home only to go to the grocery store, walk my dog and take my kayak out. I have played golf one time during all this. I went to a friends and had some backyard beers this weekend only to find out today that his girlfriend's college aged son has tested positive. She is getting tested now. I feel like a big ol dummy for taking the risk now and should have stayed home.
Edit: His girlfriend tested negative which is good news.

this disease is the ultimate degrees of separation game; hopefully it didn't spread beyond the infectee.

For sure and I will find out shortly if she got it. It had been about a week since she had seen her son and has not shown any symptoms herself. We were outside separated by a picnic table or standing away from each other most of the time. Fingers crossed she tests negative and I can breath a sigh of relief.

even if she tested positive, your risk is only moderate if you stayed outside and across the way. Most likely transmission would be at the beer cooler, door handles, or some other often touched item.

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This is very interesting.

WHO is now saying further studies have shown that asymptomatic spreading of COVID-19 is "very rare". This could potentially have drastic ramifications for public policy going forward.

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare,' WHO says

Preliminary evidence from the earliest outbreaks indicated that the virus could spread from person-to-person contact, even if the carrier didn't have symptoms. But WHO officials now say that while asymptomatic spread can occur, it is not the main way it's being transmitted.

"From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual," Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO's emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency's Geneva headquarters. "It's very rare."

Government responses should focus on detecting and isolating infected people with symptoms, and tracking anyone who might have come into contact with them, Van Kerkhove said. She acknowledged that some studies have indicated asymptomatic or presymptomatic spread in nursing homes and in household settings.

More research and data are needed to "truly answer" the question of whether the coronavirus can spread widely through asymptomatic carriers, Van Kerkhove added.

"We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing," she said. "They're following asymptomatic cases. They're following contacts. And they're not finding secondary transmission onward. It's very rare."

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

Unfortunately, I see some people (who a couple weeks ago told me they don't trust anything from the WHO) using this to argue we should all ditch the masks and get back to normal, just stay home if you're sick.

Unfortunately, some people can't afford to stay home for the sniffles, or a little cough they may assume is just allergies

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

If you are going to stipulate people wear masks, people need to stay home if they are sick, too. In fact most places you have to screen for illness (temp check) in order to open.

If you are going to stipulate people wear masks, people need to stay home if they are sick, too.

And people won't do either, cause people are dumb.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

If the choice is staying home because someone might be sick versus paying their rent and food bills what's do you think they are going to choose?

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

It shouldn't be a choice (and I don't think it is). Business should not let people work if they are sick. They should provide PTO for it but that is a different discussion.

Without guaranteed paid sick leave, it will always be a choice some will have to make. That coming close to the line on the CG's so...

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

So we should or shouldn't trust the WHO now?

Recruit Prosim

I'm not telling anyone who to trust, aside from science.

My point in that was if you're going to tell me one day that you don't trust anything from the WHO, don't come back a week later and say "Well, the WHO says xxxxxxxxx", cause I won't take you seriously.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

This is pretty obvious though right? If you're asymptomatic you're not coughing. If you're not coughing you're releasing far less droplets in the air. Less droplets means less likely to spread.

(add if applicable) /s

the presymptomatic spread is hypothesized by some to be predominantly airborne spread and not droplet spread. If asymptomatic individuals are spreading the virus, then it would most likely be similar.

But in sum, we honestly still don't know. We don't know if asymptomatic individuals are spreading the virus. We do know that asymptomatic individuals have viral titers similar to their symptomatic counterparts. Presumably, having that high of titer, the virus is shed out of the body somehow.

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I said I wasn't going to join this conversation anymore, and I'm not. But I had to comment on this one. I absolutely had to look up that word. New one to me.

Anyhow, have a leg.

titer?

sorry about that. Part of the problems of relaying science is that there is a lot of jargon. I probably should have used a more universal term, but viral number or viral concentration just doesn't sound right to me.

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Virus levels? I agree that "concentration" just sounds wrong, even though it's literally the definition :)

Science communication is hard.

"Science communication is hard"

This is especially frustrating when scientists try to communicate scientific results or idea to non-scientists, the media, and the public at-large. There can be such a large gap between the knowledge and jargon of specialists in a certain field versus the general public's knowledge of that topic. Doesn't help when certain words have different meanings depending on the application.

My biggest pet peeve is the common use of the word "theory". As a scientist, the word "theory" carries a lot more wait than just being some dude's completely unsubstantiated thought. It may be a bit sadistic but I enjoy the blank stare of confusion I get when someone says, "I have a theory..." and I say, "No, you have a postulate."

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

That's why I use the word speculate in the post below.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I'm not a doc and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn last night but since they are not coughing and sneezing I suspect it's not wrong to speculate that this may be why diarrhea is a symptom.
It passes through the digestive system rather than or in conjunction with the respiration.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

there is definitely virus shedding in via the digestive system. This is known.

Early data of infected Chinese infants were asymptomatic (no coughing, fever, etc.), but their stool had high levels of virus.

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Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

hmmm...this would seem to be a BFD

The study cited is potentially badly flawed and is getting shredded among scientists on social media. Beware of drawing too many conclusions from it.

But but but, we quit the WHO, because...

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

They lied to us

Recruit Prosim

The study that made up numbers or the study that flip flopped back to saying asymptomatic people rarely spread the virus?

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

I call bull on this

Duh.

Leonard. Duh.

It's worth noting that the discussion here is separating asymptomatic from presymptomatic. A lot of news outlets have often conflated the two. Presymptomatic transmission is occurring.

Its also worth noting that we aren't seeing asymptomatic transmission but the only data regarding asymptomatic transmission is from contact tracing records which do not have significant number of cases that trace a transmison back to asymptomatic individuals. This data shouldn't be held to be definitive, but is highly suggestive.

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I can't imagine why it is so hard to get the public onboard with policy \s

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

some sample quotes https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/09/who-comments-asymptomatic-spread-cov...

"we find out that many have really mild disease." There are some infected people who are "truly asymptomatic," she said, but countries that are doing detailed contact tracing are "not finding secondary transmission onward" from those cases. "It's very rare," she said.

"All of the best evidence suggests that people without symptoms can and do readily spread SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. In fact, some evidence suggests that people may be most infectious in the days before they become symptomatic β€” that is, in the presymptomatic phase when they feel well, have no symptoms, but may be shedding substantial amounts of virus."

Van Kerkhove acknowledged Tuesday that her use of the phrase "very rare" had been a miscommunication. She said she had based that phrasing on findings from a small number of studies that followed asymptomatic cases and tracked how many of their contacts became infected. She said she did not mean to imply that "asymptomatic transmission globally" was happening rarely, because that has not been determined yet.

it came across as if the WHO was suggesting that people without symptoms weren't driving spread. Some studies, however, have estimated that people without symptoms (whether truly asymptomatic or presymptomatic) could be responsible for up to half of the spread, which is why the virus has been so difficult to contain.

Based on what's been seen so far, asymptomatic people tend to be younger and not have other health issues, Van Kerkhove said Tuesday, though she cautioned she didn't want to generalize.

I think I posted earlier about the firewall I used to maintain between science and policy.

Again, duh.

Nobody knows what they're doing.

I couldn't hit your link for some reason, but I found another source that claimed the WHO has gone from "extremely rare" to asymptomatic spread being responsible for close to 40% of the symptomatic cases.

Good grief, Linus. We'd all be dead, if you can do the math based on the antibody studies coming out. That's Stephen King The Stand. These guys are literally telling us one day that 2+2 might be 4, and then the next day they recant and claim the answer is closer to 7,527. I'm no longer participating in this debate. Based on the protest response by public health officials it is more than obvious it has become poisonously politically, and I don't want my meager IQ to suffer further damage by paying attention to any of this anymore.

Leonard. Duh.

In the W.H.O.'s Coronavirus Stumbles, Some Scientists See a Pattern

A bit of that article relevant to this place:

The W.H.O. continues to maintain that large respiratory droplets expelled by sneezing or coughing are the main route of transmission and to downplay a possible role for aerosols, smaller particles that may linger in the air.

But evidence is piling up that aerosols may be an important route.

"What they haven't recognized is that activities like coughing and talking, even breathing in some cases, are also aerosol-producing procedures," said Linsey Marr, who studies airborne transmission of viruses at Virginia Tech.

Two of the most important things for me:

Barber shops should be open in less than 2 weeks here.

I was able to find habanero peppers at the supermarket again - which allowed me to make grilled kielbasa with my onion-habanero-green pepper-garlic topping* for lunch today! Making it with jalapeno peppers or cayenne powder is a poor substitute.

* 1 large onion, sliced and then cut the slices in half for half circle shapes
1/2 large green bell pepper cut into fairly thin strips about an inch long
1 to 2 habanero peppers based on your desired heat level diced finely; can leave out if you don't want any heat
2 teaspoons of diced garlic (I cheat and get the stuff in the bottle, but use 2 cloves diced finely if you use fresh)

Saute the green pepper until it just starts to get soft. Normally 5 minutes or so.
Add the other ingredients and continue to saute until onion and bell pepper are both soft.
Use to top kielbasa in a firm long roll or club roll. Best if you grill the kielbasa, but you can just heat it in a frying pan if you want. Still comes out okay.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

pls feel free to share that and any other recipes in our TKP cookbook because if there's one thing we all agree on it's that we all love good food (except for french)

https://www.thekeyplay.com/content/2019/january/8/tkp-recipe-book

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Oh sweet. Didn't realize that was there. Will do.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

More cases, more hospitalizations, combined with more opening and scattered planning and guidelines. It's going to get bumpy folks.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Yeah, the combination of Memorial Day weekend and protests is going to be rough.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

It's going to get bumpy folks.

Is it? It seems to me like people who are at risk are taking appropriate measures, and people who are not are starting their lives again.

Daily US COVID deaths are at a low (according to https://covid19.healthdata.org/):

Resource availability (at a national level - which I recognize isn't that useful of a stat and should be reviewed at the state level) appears to be under control. Cases are obviously increasing drastically, but so is testing.

As long as our hospitals have the resources to treat extreme cases, we should be fine, right?

Twitter me

It seems to me like people who are at risk are taking appropriate measures, and people who are not are starting their lives again.

Did they come out with a test to determine who's at risk?

As long as our hospitals have the resources to treat extreme cases, we should be fine, right?

Thought we had things covered before (what we were told) and there's 115,000 Americans dead. That's not fine.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Did they come out with a test to determine who's at risk?

By 'at risk,' I mean 'at risk of death.' For the majority of the population, we are seeing evidence that COVID is not lethal. From an Epidemiologist, Immunologist & Physician at Harvard School of Public Health & Harvard Med School:

there's 115,000 Americans dead. That's not fine.

I get that, and I agree death is bad, but 42% of those deaths come from people in nursing homes - I'm not sharing that stat to suggest those lives don't matter; but rather to suggest that 42% of deaths happened in the absolute worst case scenario (with regard to living situation and susceptibility of the victims) - given that only 2.1 million people live in nursing homes or residential care facilities (0.6% of the U.S. population) it's fair to say that these circumstances are completely avoidable for the majority of the population.

My understanding is that our major goal is to avoid overwhelming our healthcare system. It seems that, at this point, we are not in danger of running out of the resources necessary for treating extreme cases. That is what I meant by 'fine.'

Twitter me

My understanding is that our major goal is to avoid overwhelming our healthcare system. It seems that, at this point, we are not in danger of running out of the resources necessary for treating extreme cases. That is what I meant by 'fine.'

Arizona ICUs are at 80% capacity, and continuing to rise, directly linked to ending stay at home orders.

https://www.newsweek.com/arizona-icu-capacity-reaches-80-percent-state-r...

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/14/876786952/health-experts-link-rise-in-ari...

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Yea, obviously I know every state is experiencing something different right now. But I do think it's impossible to correctly understand these numbers without information around age and risk factors.

On an unrelated note, I think this comment from the NPR article was really interesting. Didn't occur to me that people would be gathering indoors to avoid the heat (I love hot weather).

Phoenix's triple digit summer temperatures may actually help fuel the spread of the virus. People forego outdoor activities and retreat to air-conditioned indoor spaces, where the risk of transmitting the virus goes up significantly.

Twitter me

Cases in California are rising. Florida just posted its largest single-day increase. Arizona cases have doubled in two weeks. Texas is activating emergency measures as hospital capacities are being reached. Oregon is pausing its reopening plan due to a surge in cases.

Things may be settling nationwide, but those numbers obscure the nuance of the actual situation.

Are there any credible theories as to why certain areas are flaring back up at a faster rate? Virginia appears to be holding a downward trend and the VDH data shows us being back to similar cases as March as far as hospitalization. From my vantage point, it isnt because Virginians are being ultra cautious. Are we to expect similar rapid increases in the coming days?

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Was going to ask the same question. There are a bunch of states in phased openings that appear to either still be on the downward projection or at least leveled out.

Evidence shows that being in large groups indoors is the most common way to spread the virus. Being outdoors (assuming appropriate distance) seems to limit the spread. Spread from surfaces is also not nearly as dangerous as original thought (per NYT).

Also, as I argued in comments below, it's really difficult to accurately understand the spread of the virus without accounting for known risk factors (age, pre-existing conditions, etc).

Twitter me

"This virus is much more spotty," said Arnold Monto, professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan School for Public Health. "It is so complicated that when people give you a simple answer to this, it's probably not right."

This is the best explanation I have heard.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Thanks for this explanation! I'm aware that situation is nuanced from state to state, but I had no idea that Texas is nearing max capacity.

Twitter me

My next question is, how many virus particles would be required to activate an immune system response.

How many of this particular virus particles would be required to tip over and cause an average adult human with a properly functioning immune system to actually become symptomatic?

This is going to be great for the ACC.

How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop?

Three.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

that is a huge question in the field.

We don't know the virus load to (a) initiate sickness, (b) cause symptoms, or (c) initiate an immune response. However, prolonged and repeated exposure (like nurses and doctors) seems to cause more serious sickness and symptoms, which is an obvious postulate.

These types of questions are difficult. The best way to determine this question is by challenging cohorts of individuals with different levels of virus, which is an inhumane experiment. And lab experiments with animals wouldn't yield definitive answers because viruses have very unique responses in their host species. For example, a response in a rat would be very different than a response in a human.

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That is what I thought plus it probably varies according to the individual level of things such as perhaps VitD, sleep patterns and environmental conditions on the day the contact occurs,

This is rather important though and may be a clue as to why some are asymptomatic but develop immunity or heavily symptomatic.

I suppose that's why I have the most confidence in identifying the porton of the RNA that triggers an immune response and just introducing that portion to humans to try and trigger immunity level responses.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

So almost every school that is openly reporting tests is reporting some positive tests among staff and athletes. There can't be a way this season in football or basketball is going to be normal. God forbid a staffer or athlete gets admitted to the hospital or goes on a vent or even dies how do the rest of the conferences and schools justify keeping on playing?

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

how do the rest of the conferences and schools justify keeping on playing?

Um...money? I mean. How do states justify opening up in the face of rising cases? Money. At some point, the economy/cash flow of athletic departments will overshadow heath risks until the heath risks seem too big to ignore.

By the way, I actively had to catch myself from using "trump" as a verb so no one got triggered...

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

By the way, I actively had to catch myself from using "trump" as a verb so no one got triggered...

By going out of your way to point that out kind of defeats the purpose, no?

I criticize knowing full well I could never do what these athletes do.

Our pool is opening today. They started having people sign up for slots and limiting it to 50 at a time and no more than one signup per family every three days. This morning they opened it to 100 at a time And you can go every other day. Just waiting for a case to show up among members and the whole thing to shut down. They've already said we have to pay for a full summer and there will be no refunds. Also, anyone who doesn't pay this year will be relegated to the bottom of a substantial waiting list (it took us 3 years to get off the waiting list)

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Montgomery County has announced the frog pond is closed this summer.

city pools (we don't have any out in the counties) canceled the season a month or two ago. It's the private pools that are opening now (gots to make the monies)

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

I'm going to really grab at some straws here and consider that a properly chlorinated outdoor pool is a really, really bad transmission vector.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

yeah I don't think anyone is worried about the pool itself being contaminated. I would expect they are more concerned with people being in each other's faces while in the pool or being too close hanging out on the patio.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

And here in rural Mathews, if it weren't for we oldsters you'd never know there was a virus around. I'll admit to terrible thoughts about my "fellow travelers" here as even the Food Lion now has maybe half of the shoppers wearing masks. At least the employees are masked, though other than the ABC store, that's a rarity around here. I'm sure the low rate of reported infection in this county, 5 individuals, and the overwhelming anti-government contingency here has lead to the blase attitude, but it makes me pretty nervous to do what I have to do to live.
One a rare and positive note, the Food Lion finally actually had a modest stock of TP available yesterday, with a few different brands. While I lucked into some a couple of weeks ago as they unloaded a stocking cart straight into customers carts, this is the first time in almost 4 months that there was stock on the long empty shelves. Progress?

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Then I see the other extreme.
Yesterday I saw a woman, mY e late 30's on a riding mower in her yard, wearing a mask.
The regular sighting of people driving with their mask on.

My friend saying the scare has people wanting to not go to the doc with their other medical problems. We had a short discussion about how rebreathong CO2 while wearing a mask may be impacting the recording of BP and respiration levels in his patients in the triage room.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Benefit of doubt here, many people wear masks while mowing to protect against dust. I hope that was the case.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

No, this is relatively new.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I mow grass with a mask on because I'm actually allergic to grass/pollen and had asthma when I was younger. If I don't wear a mask, I can't breathe properly for like 3 or 4 hours afterwards.

Same here, there is the small chance that this is sudden onset allergy but that would be a huge coincidence.
Be the first time, since they moved in a couple years ago, that she wore a mask and it's one of the corona masks.

You guys can avoid it all you want but its just one more piece of evidence that while some people take the risk in stride, others are overdoing it.

Wearing a corona mask while taking out the trash, driving, sitting out on your back porch. Taken singly can be working with a particular risk. With the numbers I'm seeing, is more emotional response than logical.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

There are always going to be people who act on bad information or misunderstanding. Maybe they think they're protecting themselves, when obviously they're not. There are people out there who think the whole COVID thing is a giant hoax because they read it on the Internet. Bad information.

But if people want to wear masks whenever they go anywhere, I'll take erring on the side of protecting others too much any day of the week. Because there are plenty of people who are acting in a risky way with disregard for anyone else...generally also motivated by bad information.

Who gives a flying rats ass if people are overdoing it. As stated above by someone else it is better for people to overdo rather than not do at all. I can't wrap my mind around why it is even worth bringing up that you noticed a neighbor wearing a mask while doing yard work that previously hasn't. Who even has the time to make note of such trivial bs things. Do you log what time the neighbors check the mail also??

Even if it seems silly to you, wouldn't you rather somebody take too much precaution than not enough? I really am not seeing what she is hurting.

I don't understand why you care so much about someone being overly cautious. Maybe it's time to find a hobby.

I really did not think I'd be jumped on personally for reporting that it appears as if there are those that seem to have internalized the scare of the virus to the point of being excessive.

Look, I get it that its not really hurting anyone to do it but, I bet I'd hear differently if it was someone wearing a tinfoil hat or carried a change of clean underwear sticking out of their back pocket all the time or had to check everything for intruders 6 times before entering a new room.

Just in case. I mean, what would they be hurting?

This is going to be great for the ACC.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Tinfoil hats? Underwear in the back pocket? Phantom intruders? Who's trippin', man? So, people with allergies and/or mental illness have become your targets now? C'mon.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

I used a specific to illustrate a general trend that I have observed.
You guys want to focus on the specific and ignore my point of the general trend and then pick on any additional examples.

My point, I'll repeat again is that I observe people are running scared on that end of the extreme and go so far beyond basics and prudence and are getting more and more aggressive in calling out those they see as "Not doing enough".

It's become an emotional response, not a logical one. I'm betting the psych types are having a field day right now watching how people are acting.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I have yet to hear the CDC or Surgeon General say, or a sign on a door that states "No Tinfoil Hat, No Entry."

You have observed "people running scared."

A lot of responses are emotional. Heck, we are on a football-centric board that is very emotional. Just bare in mind that.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Again, an example. Let's change that then to hard hat. And yes, I have a relative that has to wear a helmet all the time. That is not the case here.

You know my point, let's argue the point and stop just trying to do gotcha.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

He has a hobby. He can create beer out of its component materials. ;^)

What's yours?

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Biking, running, video games, not caring about whether or not my neighbors are wearing a mask

You forgot missing the point.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Logical responses aren't often one-size-fits-all

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Two things:
1) I had a co-worker who concealed carried everywhere he was allowed to, including while mowing his lawn. Some people just like the comfort of being "protected" everywhere.
2) Wouldn't it be nice if there were some sort of agency that could put out information for everyone to understand how to protect themselves and others from the Coronavirus?

I get your point #2. Part of the problem is the serious inconsistency in the message and the instruction.

edit: actually I understand #1 as well. I have people I know on a professional basis that carry all the time and do not own a cell phone. In their case that's prudent.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

As just pointed out, wearing a mask mowing is common in places with a lot of dust and sand, or by people prone to allergies while/after cutting grass. I've worn a bandanna for the dust in my sandy poor soil here. I'm merely talking about in the grocery stores with lots of people around, of all stages of age and health, not people in a triage room. It's the rule, but it's flaunted for convenience and politics around here. I cannot help but having uncharitable feelings about my perception of their convenience or politics being more important than my health. Sorry, rant over, I will shut the heck up.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

My neighborhood is not the dust and sand state here in the mountains.
Especially not with the rain we've been having.

Some people have been scared out of their shorts. I know some of them. This person is one of them, she is not far from my house.

This was not dust and dirt nor pollen or vampires. This is a young lady that is so scared she wore a mask outside by herself while mowing to protect herself from the odd virus particle that may still be viable and find its way into her lungs on a nice sunny day completely isolated.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Having spent most of my life living in the mountains, I will say seeing someone wearing a mask while mowing their lawn was not that much of an unusual sighting. People with allergies do that, as a matter of course. I wore a bandanna a few times mowing my bottom land and garden areas in the late summer because if I didn't, I'd be blowing brown snot out of my nose for a couple of hours. In the mountains.
Of course I don't know your neighbor, but to ridicule her fear when she's not doing anything to make matters worse seems a bit much. I'd rather a hundred like her than one of the idiots I have to live around that don't give a damn.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

I'm with you on the mowing lady. If somebody wants to stand alone in a 10,000 acre field with their mask on, I'm cool with it. They're sure not hurting me.

However, if you call someone an idiot for not wearing a mask when you think they need to be, and you know nothing about their personal situation, aren't you doing the same thing? In that situation, you have your mask on, so no worries, right?

Leonard. Duh.

However, if you call someone an idiot for not wearing a mask when you think they need to be, and you know nothing about their personal situation, aren't you doing the same thing? In that situation, you have your mask on, so no worries, right?

I think I'm tired of being nice to people whose stupidity is causing this to not dissipate like we've seen in other countries whose citizens actually took it seriously from the start. Those people are drastically impacting the daily lives of everyone, and not just their own selfish selves.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

This is the most frustrating part. So many people are STILL saying "well this will never go away we can't hide in a hole forever, there's nothing we can do about it."

Except that there is, and other countries have successfully eliminated and drastically reduced spread. South Korea New Zealand just to name two. SK started seeing major spread around the same time as us and they have sub 300 deaths, had reduced to zero daily cases on multiple days, and we have been sitting around 20k new cases per day for weeks and now we are seeing huge spikes in states that reopened aggressively. More US citizens have died from this than US citizens died in WWI. We're handling this as poorly as any country in the world.

More US citizens have died from this than US citizens died in WWI. We're handling this as poorly as any country in the world.

And the thing that pisses me off the most about it all is that we're still dealing with regular people, media, and government officials who are hell bent on trying to convince everyone that this is all made up. Like, fuck off, this is impacting the entire planet, it isn't some ploy for US political purposes you ignorant half twits.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

In that situation, you have your mask on, so no worries, right?

Hasn't it been repeated over and over that the wearing of masks isn't necessarily to protect yourself, but more to protect others in case you yourself are sick and don't know it? Unless you're wearing something more legit than a cloth mask.

stick it in, stick it in, stick it in!

Leonard, I'm not calling them idiots only because of the masks, but because of their decisions to place all of their neighbors at risk by not following simple and easily followed mandates for the health of ALL OF US. Duh or not, my friend, that's what it boils down to. If you don't agree with the reasons for the mandates, debate them at will, but while wearing your mask, please. That's all I would ask. Sorry if that inconveniences you. Yeah, I'm an asshole about it, but I just don't understand the other side of this one.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Another argument, it's got to be harder to hear someone yelling "get off my lawn" when they have a mask on.

You will see this game, this upset and this sign next on ESPN Sportscenter. Virginia Tech 31 Miami 7

Reason enough to wear one, right?

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Not if you want to do the yelling!

You will see this game, this upset and this sign next on ESPN Sportscenter. Virginia Tech 31 Miami 7

And here he's stumbled exactly to the heart of the matter. Everything comes at the cost of something else.
You can only do this so much. It's exhausting always wearing a mask, simple resource allocation problem.
I was told by the doc I saw last week that he hates the masks, he has raw spots behind his ears from the straps. He switches to different styles but after several months it doesn't make a difference, over the ear, around the head. He can't wear a shield because of the shape of his head.

Another doc I know has to wear a face shield because the masks interfere with the loopes he has to wear, they are very sensitive to the moisture from breath.

I know I wouldn't wear them all the time and I was trained in their proper use.

My point here is that some people have been so scared they wear them the minute they step out the door. To their own detriment.

ps. I know there are those that must and I feel sorry for them. Those are not the people of whom I speak.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Just got back from 10 days at Cherry Grove North Myrtle Beach. Things weren't quite as busy as they normally are this time of year, but it was busy enough. To add, it didn't seem like too many people were concerned about a virus. Very few masks, no social distancing observed, huge groups together at the beach (and most other places as well), etc.

Is coronavirus over yet?

Myrtle Beach is actually seeing holiday weekend type crowds and call volume for Fire/EMS police is at that same level. Multiple shootings last night for example.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Also just got back from the beach in SC (HHI). Very, very few masks. I got take out one night and I was the only person wearing a mask inside the restaurant (which was mostly full). Waayy different than Virginia. Its fascinating from a social behavior standpoint to hypothesize why that may be (especially as presumably most of the folks are from out of town).

I have spoken with friends and family all over Virginia and in several states all the way to Cal., and it seems that where I live in Virginia is worse for masking than anywhere else I've asked about. I think it's an interesting dynamic that I hope will be studied when the time comes to figure out this pandemic and what to do about the scofflaws during the next one. I hope, anyway.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

A church in Ronceverte, WV near Lewisburg has had an outbreak. I think 17 members have tested positive so far. This really is not good.

Marshall University graduate.
Virginia Tech fanatic.
Formerly known as JWillHokieAlum.

They have a constitutional right to get as sick as they want.

Edit: /s

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Oh so suddenly the group portrayed there thinks that 'choice' matters.

Sorry not /s

Hearing whispers through my company that NC is about to go into a lockdown again.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

Wouldn't be surprised. I think it was you that called it a couple weeks ago saying we almost did "too good of a job" containing it in the beginning, and that there was worry that this would happen?

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Its also directly because of the sheer stupidity of people. Been running errand the last couple weekends that have needed to get done since March, and people just don't give a shit that this is going on. Crowded outdoor areas, jam packed parks, a general apathy toward any social distancing guideline, and maybe 1 out of every 10 people wearing a mask.

Make no mistake, if we go back into a lockdown, its because of the behavior of the citizens.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

No doubt. You should see the grocery stores in the Outer Banks right now....yeesh.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Wouldn't surprise me, given what my family in NC is seeing about how poorly people are masking and distancing.

And then there's the other side of the family that is holding a surprise 80th birthday party at CCC in July, expecting everybody to come. The birthday boy has not been social distancing, and has lied about it in order to visit my immediate family. I'm stunned that they're even considering holding such an event. (Like my jaw literally dropped when I got the invitation.)

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Annoying for those of us who have been careful that the ignorant masses are going to continue this thing for so, so much longer than it should have.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

Realistically this thing doesn't end until there is a vaccine or everyone catches it.

There are a lot of things I am unhappy about living in upstate NY (taxes, a state govt focused on NYC, taxes, winter, and taxes), but one thing that has been done right in NY is lockdown and re-opening. Seeing someone in public without a mask is rare, and social distancing is the norm, not the exception. Our area of the state is in stage three of opening - indoor seating with reduced capacity at restaurants, retail open with reduced capacity, even summer daycamps for kids. The testing rate has been very high, and new Covid-19 cases are at the same levels locally that they were in mid-March.

Cuomo has been relentless in his message, and it is working. Three weeks ago a restaurant owner decided he was going to open even though it was prohibited. Announced it via social media. Got a visit from the health department in two hours, and they told him if he opened they would revoke his operating certificate for good. He chose not to open. NY isn't messing around - and the results so far show it is working.

New York has gone through the crucible - and has been very measured in coming out the other side.

Aligning perfectly with the aggressive reopening of SC we are starting to see record single day cases almost every day. It will be down again today because of the way reporting works on Mondays, but we will likely break our single day record even more times in the coming days/weeks. Luckily our death numbers aren't crazy, but these numbers do not look good, and they aren't because of increased testing. Our percent positive rate has jumped up significantly as well.

Correct me if I am wrong, but nationwide- we have not seen a spike or surge in actual deaths, correct? That would be a much bigger concern. We seem to have the treatment infrastructure in place now.

I said it in another comment that I have heard similar chatter that we have a better idea of how to treat it now, but I'm yet to see a written explanation of how that is the case. Obviously that is great news if it is true.

Actually the bigger concern is local case and hospitalization numbers. So if Town A only has 50 hospital beds and only 2 are ICU a surge in cases and hospitalization can overwhelm them. So while nationwide numbers might be flat we are seeing "hot zones" which is concerning.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Deaths are a lagging indicator, more so then positive cases/hospitalizations, I believe.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

NC Governor has a press conference at 2. There is growing expectations that we are going to rescind all Phased Opening measures and revert back to March and April quarantine measures.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

Do you have a link for the press conference announcement? I can't find that anywhere. I know he had one Friday.

I can't imagine we're going to roll back. All of the restaurants and other businesses who've rehired workers? No way, dude. Although, I can see him holding in phase 2 forever.

Leonard. Duh.

Thanks, dude. Just couldn't find it.

Leonard. Duh.

I would be pretty shocked if they rescind the Phases they have previously implemented. However, I'm sure they are paying close attention to this graph.

It is very hard not to draw conclusions from that, but why are there other states with similar reopening not going up?

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

I guess there are states with lower density population zones, people being more diligent about social distancing, better weather eliminating outdoor spread (sun versus clouds), and just plain luck.

Seems like it might be driven by the phrasing of the question by the state department of health. In the press conference it was stated, this data is the number of people who are hospitalized in NC who have tested positive for Covid-19, NOT the number of people who presented to the hospital with Covid-19 as their primary health concern and were admitted. For me, that makes the number a lot less important than it was before hearing that.

Based on what I've listened to so far, it seems to be more about the ongoing recovery from Hurricane Florence and prep for Hurricane season.

Person before Cooper did mention NC has 500 testing sites now. Hopefully they can still add more.

Cases will keep going up (less restrictions and you can always rely on stupid people to continue being stupid), but hopefully the hospitalization rate and death rate goes down.

If people would just be careful with who you spend time with, and always wear a mask in public, especially indoor, places, we can minimize the death toll and the economic cost.

Yes,that's the Hokie Bird riding a camel. Why'd you ask?

Confirmed that Ezekiel Elliot has tested positive for COVID-19 along with several other Cowboys as well as members of the Texans.

LINK

Let's say the number is correct and the +45% of the deaths are in nursing homes, it seems to me as if the current strategy is a poor one for protecting those most vulnerable.

As a thought experiment, what are other possible ideas to protect them?

This is going to be great for the ACC.

That is a tough one. As long as the employees are free to go home, there is always a risk of it getting in. I would think that there may be some air circulation and filtration options to help.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

abolish f*cking nursing homes, for starters.

Not the bagman VT deserves, but the bagman VT needs right now.

Something that I did not know a year ago, is that a lot of nursing homes serve as rehab facilities for patients transferring out of hospital care.

My 94 year old MIL is living in a nursing wing of a retirement home. She started out as an independent living apartment dweller, then moved into assisted living and is now in the memory care wing. This was the plan all along, and she has paid a pretty penny for the assurance of care up to and including full nursing care should that be required. She's almost blind, cannot function independently, and will not live with family, for a lot of really good reasons. Nobody in the family has been able to see her, and talking with her on the phone is useless. Some face timing with one daughter that does that stuff, but otherwise, the home is taking mondo precautions and so far so good, but we worry about her every day. And we know she's one of the lucky ones.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

Many years ago, I delivered newspapers to all inclusive facility like that. When my dad got sick last fall, as part of the hospital discharge he was moved to the assisted living area of a local nursing home.

So, a huge chunk of that 42% was due to poor decision making (albeit well intended) by Governor Coumo. Basically, he ordered a bunch of people to leave nursing homes (for social distancing purposes), then reversed that ordered, recognizing that a lot of these people were suffering from challenges unrelated to COVID (aka - they needed nursing home level care). The result was probably the worst case scenario - a bunch of high risk people contracted COVID then infected a ton of other high risk people.

That said, as a self taught internet coronavirus expert (/s), I'd recommend the following for nursing home policies:

  • Educating staff so they understand they must be extremely vigilant, recommending that they quarantine, wash hands as much as possible, etc
  • Increased testing for staff and residents, followed by quarantining for anyone who tests positive
  • Any social time taking place outdoors
  • Family members cannot come inside; they must stay outdoors and wear masks when visiting

Twitter me

In MA, the average age of people dying due to COVID is 81, and nearly 70% of those were in long-term treatment facilities.

Glad we put an order in to stockpile it up front

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

we'll be ready for the malaria pandemic.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

They left out some important stuff.

to use hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine to treat COVID-19 in certain hospitalized patients

It is ineffective and counter-indicated for late stage patients.

Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine can cause abnormal heart rhythms such as QT interval prolongation and a dangerously rapid heart rate called ventricular tachycardia. These risks may increase when these medicines are combined with other medicines known to prolong the QT interval, including the antibiotic azithromycin, which is also being used in some COVID-19 patients without FDA approval for this condition. Patients who also have other health issues such as heart and kidney disease are likely to be at increased risk of these heart problems when receiving these medicines.

This we knew, they are just recinding the temporary permission of the use of the drugs for hospitalized patients when there was no clinical trial available.
I'm surprised it took them this long.

FDA website

This is going to be great for the ACC.

CNN left out pertinent details?!?! I can't believe it!

Beat GT

That is some of the most levelheaded yet professional reporting I have seen. That guy needs to be on a special news report tonight to get real information out to all Americans. Of course in about five seconds somebody will likely come flying in to tell me how flawed his data is or explain his lack of credibility.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

I appreciate how he's not stuck in his own little idealistic medical world bubble, and doesn't have tunnel vision.

what does he say that is different than the general medical consensus? Seems to be essentially the same to me.

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The vast preponderance of the discussion is focusing on the medical concerns only and the storyline is as harsh as it can get.
I'll cut and paste some of the points for examples.

One of the best things we can do for our aging parents is to get them out into the fresh air, while maintaining physical (not social) distancing.
Wearing a cloth mask does not protect you much if you're in close contact with someone who is COVID-19 contagious. It may give you 20 minutes, instead of 10, to avoid contracting the disease.

But I can say with certainty, what I call the laws of virus physics, is that this is going to continue to transmit until we see a large part of the population infected.

On vaccines and that coronovirus has its significant challenges for vaccines. That we never had one for this type of virus. That the "cure" could be problematic.

The final piece is safety as we do have challenges with this virus. We know that there's a condition called antibody dependent enhancement, which is a condition where you make just a little bit of antibody, but not enough to protect yourself. There's also an immune enhancement phenomena where your body goes out of whack in terms of immune response. And so, one of the things that we are having to look at very carefully is the safety of these vaccines.

But we know hope is not a strategy. I think the key message is that, first of all, is that if it does happen, it's not going to happen soon.

This virus doesn't magically jump between two people β€” it's time and dose. For example, if you're riding in a car with someone who's infected, you may become infected yourself by just breathing their air within 10 minutes. If they have a cloth mask on, then that may move it to 20 minutes but it doesn't eliminate it.

Shutting down beaches and parks is a really bad idea. Take advantage of the warm months and get people out into the sun and off the couch.

The message I think we have to say is being outside is really a very important thing [for Covid-19]. It's getting fresh air, and being able to move and exercise. It turns out that being in the outside environment dissipates these aerosols very, very quickly. Of all the outbreaks that happened in Wuhan, China where people get together with one infected individual and then transmission occurred β€” all but one of them occurred inside....you're not going to get infected by passing somebody on the path.

Finally, I would really work on and develop the kinds of protocols and information sources for the public to better understand what's going on. Right now, I think the public feels whipsawed back and forth.

Other medical conditions are being ignored. This is bad.

I think one of the things we have to understand is we can't just lockdown. I look at this with two guardrails. On one side is a guardrail where we are locked down for 18 months to try to get us all to a vaccine without anyone having to get infected or die. We will destroy not just the economy but society as we know that if we try to do that. The other guardrail is to just let it go and see what happens. We will see the kinds of deaths we just talked about and we will see healthcare systems that will literally implode. And not just for COVID-19 care, but for heart attack, stroke, and all other causes of disease in our communities. That's not acceptable.

There's more but this was getting very long.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Other medical conditions are being ignored

Tbf, that's not what that paragraph says. It says:

The other guardrail is to just let it go and see what happens. We will see the kinds of deaths we just talked about and we will see healthcare systems that will literally implode. And not just for COVID-19 care, but for heart attack, stroke, and all other causes of disease in our communities.

Thus, if we were to do nothing, our health care system would be inundated with COVID cases that we wouldn't be able to provide care for heart attack, stroke, etc.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

I'm considering that perhaps being in the field you get a different perspective than the ordinary citizen.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

tbf, I'm not in the field, but adjacent. I am a patent attorney and I have helped some inventors on coronavirus related patents, but I'm not actively practicing science in the lab or anything. My background, however, is in biomedical research including vaccine development, so I am pretty well versed in what's going on.

With that said, even if I'm not actively participating, I read a lot on this subject. From what I read here, I didn't see anything that was really a different perspective than what I read. Perhaps I interpret what I have read from the various sources differently than someone without the biomedical training. I don't know. But, in this article, the doctor doesn't really say anything definitively and the topics he discusses are all open thoughts. I'm guessing people generally are not accessing these open thoughts because they're reading news outlets and politician sound bites that provide summaries and takeaways that don't allow for the nuance that is inherently required.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Most of what I am reading and watching is very close to the source, journals and abstracts, some technical med type video and conversations with medical professionals. I started in on it hard in January due to people close to me that have no immune system. I've found many to be informed but nothing along the lines of practical. Not even close.

At least this guys understands tradeoffs.

And this thing with 'getting outside' should be information that's baseline stuff but I see things I can't even fathom from regulations and legislation. I don't watch the news much but judging by reactions of friends they get the horrified look when I mention outside activities.
People were inside with windows closed breathing the same air and not understanding why it's catching.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

It isnt anything new necessarily, but he presented it in a way that tells the whole story but was relatively concise in doing so. I feel that most other things I have gathered comes in bits and pieces. He did focus a little more on time and dose than I have heard before. But mainly, I think the public would benefit in receiving the information from a credible source. A lot of people I talk to have stopped trying to learn more and just focus on the newest reports of cases.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Exactly. There's been plenty of doctors or other medical professionals who say that we should cancel all sports and shut everything down, possibly until 2022 or later.

This guy actually understands how everything is interdependent and it's impossible to just press pause on society for an extended period of time.

Yea. that's fair.

I know CNN uses Gupta to try and do this with their coronavirus town halls. I don't think that people want to listen to it. I know I don't, but I get all my information from more direct sources.

It's hard to provide summaries though, when the data and knowledge keeps evolving day after day.

πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ πŸ¦ƒ

Between the guardrails.

As I expressed earlier, I am doing everything practicable at the brewery. I've thought of more good ideas than what I am being allowed to do.

This is where I float and advocate for. You must live, not just not die.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I wanted to dig into SC's "Spike" seen in the daily graphs here. Google Link

So I used the Wayback machine and looked at snapshots from scdhec and compared the website numbers on 5/9-5/16 to 6/9-6/16 and found numbers that actually put context to this silly daily graph that provides no actual info on spread.

5/9-5/16: 28,653 total tests. 876 new positive ~3% positive
6/9-6/16: 40,492 total tests. 2,893** positive ~7% positive

So cases are rising, positive test rate is rising (in this week total it actually fell on comparable days) but its hardly what I would define as a spike. We're ran 11,839 more tests in the June time frame resulting in 2,017** more positive cases.

**Note: From SCDHEC this number isn't exactly "new" positives. As the websites mentioned in June (not May) there were multiple reported retests, they give no indication on what percentage that may be but have it as a note which throws a big wrench in the positive test numbers being accurate.

(add if applicable) /s

What are they measuring?
New active cases?
antibody presence/immunity?

This is going to be great for the ACC.

The numbers I mentioned are the delta in new positives

The number in the google graph is just daily reported positive tests.

(add if applicable) /s

Thanks. Sometimes it is not clear and reporting in virginia was horrible as they conflated the 2 and therefore gave worse than useless data.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

You're hitting on a huge takeaway from this entire ordeal - People (including the government, private organizations, and American citizens) have done a terrible job of understanding and communicating the true data.

In my mind, this pandemic (and the resulting behavior) has shed a light on how little understanding American have of data. I've long been a proponent that high schools should be required to offer a practical financial literacy course (something that teaches the basics of a 401k, health insurance, loans, etc), but I'm also starting to believe that, given we're entering (more like already living in) the era of big data, knowledge, understanding, and ability to understand statistics and data is more important than ever before, and must be mandatory at the grade school level. This shit is so much more important that geometry, trig, etc.

Twitter me

Yeah unfortunately data in context is usually less impressive and doesn't make for good headlines.

(add if applicable) /s

I also agree wholeheartedly with this comment.

Leonard. Duh.

I agree wholeheartedly with this comment.

Leonard. Duh.

takes me back to the "storm surge" reporting we get during hurricanes where they don't differentiate between total depth and depth above normal MHW.

I agree with your point totally.

I will say, however, that Virginia public schools have required a basic economics and a practical financial management course for graduation for a few years now.

Depending on the teacher, it's a very practical thing for many high school students. I know I couldn't used it in high school, and college!

piggybacking off of the discussion above:

measuring "fatality rate" as (death/case) shows a 17% fatality rate in NJ "long term care" centers and only 5% fatality rate in the rest of the general population in NJ. Long term care fatalities are roughly half of the overall state fatalities (47%) but are only 21% of the cases.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

only 5% fatality rate in the rest of the general population in NJ

I've stopped following this thread closely so please don't take this the wrong way, but this line actually made me LOL.

a little less funny when you knew some of them, but okay i guess? just was pointing out that NJ has seen a much higher fatality rate in the long term care population

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

I understand what you were pointing out, that there is a large disparity between the two groups. I wasn't laughing at 5% of the infected populace dying, that is grim as hell. I was laughing at it only being 5%, as if it is some minuscule acceptable amount. I was laughing at the unintentional way the sentence read. I thought I presented it in such a way that you wouldn't take it as an intentional slight to your dead friends/family/acquaintances, but what can you do?

i knew you weren't intending it as a slight, no worries there

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

"Take care of the little things and the big things will come."

Mask Study

Mandating face mask use in public is associated with a decline in the daily COVID-19 growth rate by 0.9, 1.1, 1.4, 1.7, and 2.0 percentage-points in 1–5, 6–10, 11–15, 16–20, and 21+ days after signing, respectively. Estimates suggest as many as 230,000–450,000 COVID-19 cases possibly averted By May 22, 2020 by these mandates. The findings suggest that requiring face mask use in public might help in mitigating COVID-19 spread.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Why can't I find the appendices with the data and charts they reference? I want to see what data they have in VA. Areas around me seem to have maybe 10 to 30 percent complying with the order. The local cases are dropping, but I would be hesitant to give the mask order too much credit based on my observed compliance with the order. I say this as a mask supporter, not doubter. I am only doubting this particular study since they made no attempt to measure compliance.

Another thing, they are reporting like 2% decline in the growth rate. What is each state's growth rate? Is that 2% of something like a 5% growth rate. That isnt a very big number is it? The report stated it was statistically significant but I'm not even sure we have case data that is that accurate to catch small of a delta. Somebody better at stats help me out here.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Game Cancellations have started
NYTimes Article: First Cancellations Emerge for Major College Football

Whether these cancellations are forerunners to more around the country β€” and at more powerful football programs β€” is uncertain, but they come as schools around the country are grappling with how to keep Covid-19 outbreaks from occurring as they push toward a season. Dozens of games have already been canceled at the lower levels of college football with Division II schools placing a 10-game limit on the season, and N.A.I.A. pushing its start date back two weeks, but these games are the first at the Division I level to be quashed.

It's an unwritten law that it's my lunch pail. I've issued the challenge. If someone outworks me, they can get it.
Darryl Tapp

Edit - Comment removed because the link went full sketch.

Leonard. Duh.

Any word on if VA (or whatever states y'all are in) are planning on going back to school? We have it on good authority that IL will be back in. My school is set to return Aug 12 and we're planning like that will happen. Obviously that can (and will) change. But as of now we're preparing like it's regular face to face instruction.

Yes. Montgomery County has announced their plans. All kids in school 4 days a week. Roughly 1/2 the day, group A morning, group B afternoon. Supplemented with remote learning. Wednesdays all schools closed for cleaning. A few other details but that's the general approach.

Interesting. My guess is we'll land somewhere similar to this schedule but who knows.

My daughters' school yesterday announced they will return in August.
They were happy about that.

Let's see what plans actually stick.
I'm not betting on anything right now.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Kids in my NC county and surrounding counties are going back... so far. The plan is actually to start early August and end in mid May. Of course, all of shut down contingencies are being thrown around.

It's a little sad to witness our country lagging behind other countries in the children going back to school thing. Canada just published their school plan and it's pretty much full speed ahead.

I had to drive to Louisiana on Saturday 6/6 and I listened to a fascinating podcast about D-Day. The U.S. was a lot more "Fuck it... Let's do this." back in those days.

Leonard. Duh.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

This is definitely someone who has said "Fuck it, let's do this."

You will see this game, this upset and this sign next on ESPN Sportscenter. Virginia Tech 31 Miami 7

...is Leonard suggesting we go all Leroy Jenkins against Covid?

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

*Leeroy

And for those who don't know WhoTF Leeroy Jenkins is (ffwd to 1:20).....

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Leeroy Jenkins - the leader we need in these troubled times.

Leeroy Jenkins - the leader we need have in these troubled times.

(get it? DUCKS!)

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

It's a little sad to witness our country lagging behind other countries

Agreed.

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Infographs state by state

Click on the link for how individual states are doing.

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Hold on - need context here. The y-axis is daily new cases, correct? Given (1) our significant population and (2) our recently increased testing capacity, doesn't it make sense that our numbers would be higher? Obviously, our relaxing of social distance policies is contributing, but just noting that these graphs don't account/normalize for population or testing capacity.

Furthermore - we have to remember - our goal is to flatten the curve to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, not to save every single life possible. That said, I recognize that there are a handful of states that have been failing to do this.

Twitter me

The number of test have gone up, so the number of positives have gone up. But the rate of increase is higher than the rate of increase back in April. I.e. it's getting worse....

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

It's pretty simple graphs of rate of new cases on a 7-day average. All you have to do is look at the trend (the numbers themselves are relevant, but the curve shows rate and thus how each country is preventing transmission). As you can see, the rate in the US, went up, went slightly down (mostly due to NY doing a good job), then stagnant, and now it's going up again. So, yes. the US still has little to no control in the virus and the transmission rate is increasing in over half the states now. FL is the new epicenter, but Texas isn't far behind. California, where I live, has been on a slow steady incline since May. Most other developed countries are doing much better.

Furthermore - we have to remember - our goal is to flatten the curve to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, not to save every single life possible.

I've gone over this before. And I'm not going into it again. But the US, despite having the best health science, is undeniably one of the most unhealthy developed countries in the world and I think this nation has become complicit complacent with this lifestyle.

edit: noticed a typo, should read complacent

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I've gone over this before. And I'm not going into it again.

Can you link to a previous post? I'd be interested in reading a POV from someone who disagrees on this.

But the US, despite having the best health science, is undeniably one of the most unhealthy developed countries in the world and I think this nation has become complicit with this lifestyle.

No argument from me!

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Oh, don't remember which thread it was, but it was still pretty early in the quarantine process (when the curve stopped going up linearly). However, the long and short of it was that the flattening the curve included both not exceeding the hospital capability AND getting transmission rates to go back downward. Thus, a plateu is not a curve, and instead it should look like an upside-down "u". Most others here disagreed with that and that the flattening goal just meant leveling and keeping the at arate to prevent hospitals from overcrowding.

Now with more time passed, to me, the goal of a flattened curve was to be like NY and NJ, not CA or FL.

Ultimately, I just felt that saying we "flattened" the curve was a premature pat-on-the back.

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That's fair. I've gone back and forth on this as well, and always seeking opinions supporting both interpretations of 'flattening the curve.' I'm sure my opinion will continue to change over the upcoming months.

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It's a little sad to witness our country lagging behind other countries

We're lagging behind other countries in all things "COVID-19" related, so makes sense we're lagging behind getting kids back to school

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

My kids haven't seen any disruption to their schooling this year. They wrapped up the term a few weeks ago and are on summer break now. Will start back up in mid-July regardless of how things go. Did I mention my wife home schools them? Could be relevant information.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

I don't know if it is like this everywhere, but nearly every West Virginian just has to go to Myrtle Beach every summer. They can't go to Virginia Beach. They can't go to the Outer Banks. Oak Island/Ocean Isle is off the table. For whatever reason, it has to be Myrtle, and, because of this, many areas in WV are now hotspots. I'm seeing that Myrtle is beginning to shut down again.

Marshall University graduate.
Virginia Tech fanatic.
Formerly known as JWillHokieAlum.

They can't go to Virginia Beach. They can't go to the Outer Banks.

Agreed. The motion passes. Any new business?

I always thought Myrtle Beach was part of WV.

You will see this game, this upset and this sign next on ESPN Sportscenter. Virginia Tech 31 Miami 7

It's THE go to place for people from Ohio.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Lot of jokes about how Myrtle Beach is an even 3way split between Clemson, SCar, and Ohio State fans. Lots of vacationers and a ton of transplants to the SC Coast.

In their vans.

I used to go to Hilton Head every summer as a kid, and we'd go listen to the guitar player under the oak tree at Harbour Town. Whenever he had a kid come up to help, he'd always ask where they're from. When someone said Ohio, he'd ask what color their van was, and he'd get a color in response every time. It's apparently a thing.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Well, I can tell you all of them that have Expeditions come to Ocean City, MD. Must be the deciding factor. It's a good bet that if you see a huge box of a Ford in Ocean City, it has Ohio tags.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Every day during the summer, I can scroll through my FB feed and see someone proud of their WVU flag on Myrtle Beach and how they keep starting "let's go Mountaineer" chants. I despise Myrtle for that reason.

Marshall University graduate.
Virginia Tech fanatic.
Formerly known as JWillHokieAlum.

Hey everyone. Been off these threads for a while. What did I miss? hahaha

I know I promised to try to write an insiders point of view on this whole PPE supply fiasco. Update on that, my partner and I were contacted and subsequently have been interviewed for a movie that is being developed on this event. Not sure if it will ever get made and it's not specifically about me or my business partner, rather an amalgamation of ours stories and those from others like us.

That was really interesting but it took pretty much all my spare time outside of continuing to supply PPE, and trying to be productive in my other businesses. It's with a well known director who has a history of making politically charged movies. we had to sign confidentiality contracts so I'm need to get even more creative to provide some insider stories here.

crazy, crazy times indeed

So...... Sweden, right? lol...

I would love the name of the documentary if it ever gets made! Thanks for all your hard work!

Oh no, my bad for not being clear, that was for a motion picture drama similar to The Big Short

That's even cooler! Awesome that you're helping to shape the story!

Soooo, I'm going to assume that you are giving us a big clue here, and further assume that you were contacted by Adam McKay, and then even further assume that your movie will be an Anchorman Ron Burgundy style movie about COVID... which would be totally awesome.

Leonard. Duh.

Great visual! nothing would make me happier than seeing a satirical Will Ferrell character bumbling through all of this but sadly no, this seemed to be something much more serious. No clues there unfortunately

I'd never watched it. So, I just did. Made me sick to my stomach. I'm hoping that the PPE story doesn't, but I'm not optimistic.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

don't be

Oliver Stone is making a COVID Movie??

/Cue Dos Equis music.

The most interesting poster on TKP.

I remain pessimistic that we are going to have a football season.

But what do they mean by tested positive for coronavirus, is it active virus nasal swabs? Is it blood serum immuno?

edit:

tested positive for antibodies.

Good.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Texas has actually had that problem with tallying cases. According to reports, antibody tests have been lumped into the same basket as COVID-19 tests, and positive antibody results have been lumped in with positive COVID results.

So depending on which scenario is more prevalent, they could either be under reporting or over reporting infection rates, active cases, fatality rates, etc.

#weREALLYdontknowwhatweredoing

Leonard. Duh.

antibody tests have been lumped into the same basket as COVID-19 tests, and positive antibody results have been lumped in with positive COVID results.


πŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈπŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈπŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈ

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Not a great day for those expecting professional sports in the US to resume anytime soon.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

23 from Clemson.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

It's just going to keep getting worse. Went to Nocatee farmers market to pick up a gift for my wife I ordered. The only people wearing masks were the vendors, the Nocatee staff and me. Some lady called me a sheep as I was waiting in line to get kids some chic fil a, because I asked her to step back just one step away from me when she kept telling me to move up closer to the guy in front of me.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

I'm still seeing quite a few masks here but not as many as before. Band is scheduled to play a private outdoor event on the 4th. The host is a physician. I'm counting on being able to essentially rope off an area where I can play.

Thanks for doing the right thing in these situations. It's a shame public health is so contentious.

Marshall University graduate.
Virginia Tech fanatic.
Formerly known as JWillHokieAlum.

It's not that public health is so contentious it's that Americans don't like being told to do something.
Governors have been telling people and the general public have been telling,people that they need to d9 something.
The CDC and WHO have sucked at explaining why and the expected outcome. If you explain to Americans, they will willfully do what's necessary but so far it's been, "Hey, idiot, don't get a mask." "Hey, idiot, wear a mask." "Hey, idiot, you are too stupid to think for yourself and discover a way to physically distance so do what I say, not what I do,"

Make the case and explain and people, will do what's necessary. Provide some hope and not just doom and gloom. Don't call people stupid that have reservations, address their reservations.

Americans as a whole are smart. News people and politicians would do well to remember this.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

What's contentious is people. As for how smart Americans are, we will have to disagree on that point as well, since they are proving you wrong on a daily basis. I've been called an idiot for wearing a mask and I try to consider the source, but it still rankles. Other than the proportionally rare cases such as you describe, it has become a political statement as much as it is anything in my neck of the woods, and as I have said before, someone's political beliefs and their convenience mean far less to me than the potential ramifications to my health or even my continuing to exist. Some people just care more about the rest of us than others, and I believe it's as simple as that. Selfish children don't like being told what to do either. I get the point if the individual doesn't care about their own health, Darwin steps in sooner or later, but it's the idea that "screw everybody else", it's all a hoax or overblown by the media, or a big lie to enrichen Fauci and his cronies, or however far into the bizarre world of conspiracies some care to take it, and I've heard a fair amount of it. I guess I'll learn to baaaa like a sheep and continue the minor inconvenience, and yeah, I've read what you say about your work situation and agree that in your case, wearing a mask makes little sense and is more than just an inconvenience. I wouldn't be able to dig ditches or work construction with a mask on, and I understand it's not a one size fits all sort of thing, but for shopping? As for distancing, it just ain't happening here, and while I have no compunction at all backing people off of my space, I'll admit that it's usually more inadvertent than intentional on their part and I try to temper my reaction by their response.

Reel men fish on Wednesdays

I also don't believe Americans are smart, but I do believe that communication is/was the largest flaw in this country's response to the virus (arguably a worse flaw than the testing blunder).

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can we add "general preparedness" too

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Some lady called me a sheep as I was waiting in line to get kids some chic fil a, because I asked her to step back just one step away from me when she kept telling me to move up closer to the guy in front of me.

Fuck those people. Even without a global fucking pandemic, I am a big proponent of personal space.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Ever since March, my family and co-workers have joked that social distancing should be a very smooth transition for me. I've told people to back the fuck up since I was 8 years old.

I am a supreme overlord of personal space. I want ALL of it.

Leonard. Duh.

Some lady called me a sheep as I was waiting in line to get kids some chic fil a, because I asked her to step back just one step away from me when she kept telling me to move up closer to the guy in front of me.

This is the shit I don't get. Wear a mask in public, don't crowd people. Seems like at worst a minor inconvenience, if that.

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Agreed, and the mask doesn't help the wearer much if at all. It's all about protecting the people around you.

If looking out for family, friends and strangers makes someone part of the sheep crowd then so be it.

Yes,that's the Hokie Bird riding a camel. Why'd you ask?

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

I will admit, I haven't been the best about the mask if I am dipping into a small place to purchase something. But I do where it in the grocery store, home depot, etc. Call me a sheep, but if wearing that helps stems the infection rate, great.

KState has suspended sports activities, LSU has 30 players in isolation after some of them test positive after going to a bar party.
I don't see how we get a full season of college sports in like this.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Just get all the kids sick now so they can't this fall.....

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Honestly I'm wondering if that's not exactly what some of these major programs (Clemson, Texas, LSU) are thinking at this point. I imagine they don't want to be in the middle of contention for a national title and suddenly have a bunch of players in quarantine so I'm sure some players decided to try to just get the virus before the season. Sadly it wouldn't shock me if coaches had the same thought except if there was evidence of them encouraging that, backlash would be insane.

Joffrey, Cersei, Ilyn Payne, the Hound, Jeff Jagodzinski, Paul Johnson, Pat Narduzzi.

Most definitely... If the scenario your are describing unfolded, it would be a career ender for any coach. Even untouchables like Saban or Orgeron would not be coaches any more.

Leonard. Duh.

They wouldn't be the first sports managers to try to time the "inevitable" infection so their team can be done with it before it affects the season.

Link

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

I worry about players hiding symptoms that they develop after the initial testing so they don't lose playing time or practice reps. Or worse, faking test results (not sure how one would go about this, maybe swapping swabs of individuals that have tested negative for their own, but if staff is complicit it could happen).

I also worry about knuckle-dragging coaches somehow conflating getting the virus with being "weak" or "letting down the team".

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

Or if they even know they have it. I imagine majority of the positive tests were shocking news to the players that did test positive.

I am not looking forward to a player colapsing like D.L. Hughley or worse. Silent pneumonia could potentially have a devastating consequence on a football player.

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This is a good read. First hand accounts from those who have "recovered", or worked to combat the disease. You hear so many people talking about strictly the fatality rate of COVID-19, most aren't talking about what "recovered" means

For clarification, this is from an ICU nurse, so she sees the worst of the worst..not all cases end up like this, not even all hospitalizations end up like this.

https://www.sfgate.com/science/article/What-they-don-t-tell-you-about-su...

"When they say 'recovered,' they don't tell you that that means you may need a lung transplant," Antoinette wrote in a Twitter post. "Or that you may come back after discharge with a massive heart attack or stroke, because COVID makes your blood thick as hell. Or that you may have to be on oxygen for the rest of your life."

These are my observations (of hospitalized patients):

1) Everybody is so swollen their skin has blisters and is so tight it looks like it's about to burst, from head to heel. And skin so dry peeling and flaky that to slather Vaseline on every shift is almost necessary β€” all over.

2) Everybody's skin is weeping clear fluid and has sores and the skin just slides off with slightest turn or rub, all over the body.

3) Everybody's blood is thick as slush. Can't figure out what's making it clot like that, but it's dark and thick.

4) Everybody's kidneys are failing. Urine dark or red, which could contribute to the swelling, but we don't know yet.

5) Everybody has an abnormal heart rhythm. Not sure of the cause. But even without underlying heart problems, it's not beating normally.

6) Seems counterproductive, but the ones that are not breathing on the ventilator have to lay flat on their stomachs to breathe better. And even some on the ventilator are on their stomachs. And the slightest turn for some is what leads to their almost immediate death. Bathing, cleaning and turning to prevent skin breakdown causes most to code blue, so a decision has to be made on which is most important.

7) Everyone has a Foley catheter and a rectal tube β€” incontinent of bowel and bladder.

8) Everybody on tube feeding. Everybody.

Never before in my entire career have I seen a disease process attack in this way.

β€” 20-year veteran nurse in NYC via Dr. Dee Knight

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Not to be argumentative but most of what you quoted seems to me to be symptoms of the disease.

Yeah, I assumed people could click the link to read some of the other accounts from "recovered" patients.


I'm currently in the hospital after having a heart attack caused by clotting that resulted from COVID 19. I have a stent in my heart and need to wear a heart monitoring vest at all times. Now I face months of recovery including physical and occupational therapy. I'm only 29.

β€”Dan

I spent 10 days on a ventilator last March with ARDS [Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome] and I'm still on oxygen. Going home is just the beginning of the next steps in recovering. Every aspect of my life has changed for the worse. Please support and help anyone you know who survived. And wear a mask!

β€” Nurse @liveV4Vendetta

I'm just getting over a "mild" case after over two months. There's scarring in my lower right lung and my stomach and digestion are a mess like never before. But I'm coughing way less and can take walks again.

And, btw, this is the third time in two months that I've "gotten better." I'm just hoping it's the last and it doesn't all come back AGAIN.

β€” Eli

I "recovered" March 29. I was born 65 years ago with chronic bronchitis that usually popped up maybe twice a year. Now, after COVID-19, I have acute bronchitis attacks 3-4 times a month and get winded walking to the mailbox.

β€” Hollis Charles

My coworker β€” an otherwise totally healthy 30-year-old β€” is still having issues breathing, two full months later. We've got patients coming back to the ER after they're "recovered" because they can't breathe or they get a blood clot. It's so insane.

β€” Andi

I had it back in March and did 6 days on a ventilator. To date, I'm still short of breath with little exertion. I have pains all over that I have never had before. I've noticed I don't urinate as much as I use to. And my legs & feet keep swelling so large no shoes fit. Even flops.

β€” Melly B.

My husband and I caught COVID two and a half months ago. While my symptoms were mild, he nearly had to be admitted because he couldn't breathe, and now, a month after he's recovered, we've discovered he has PERMANENT LUNG DAMAGE.

This is not "just the flu." It isn't.

β€” Sue Mii

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Wow! Thanks for sharing! I was wondering about the "asymptomatic" people if they developed clotting they just don't know about because it hasn't affected them YET. I am pretty sure that's not getting tested for.

You hear so many people talking about strictly the fatality rate of COVID-19, most aren't talking about what "recovered" means

This is a great point, and IMO goes back to the larger issue of communication failure. The only data that is being publicized is # of cases and # of deaths. Additionally, we now know that about 1/3 of people who get the disease are asymptomatic. Government/health care community need to provide numbers comparing the percentage of deaths, serious cases, mild cases, and asymptomatic cases across age groups and pre-existing conditions (mainly diabetes and obesity).

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Agreed. I've been pleased with the way that Dare Co, my home county, has been reporting. More communities should be doing this, IMO

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

This is awesome! You should write your local government leaders and thank for the useful breakdown.

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About two hours after I posted that yesterday, we jumped by 9 cases. Biggest single day increase yet.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Unusual that the number of cases are more female than male.
Anybody come up with a reason for that?

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Probably too small a sample size to make any kind of conclusion, especially when you're talking about 2 or 3 flipping and them being even.

China released a study in April that claimed men and women can contract the disease at the same rate, but its more likely to have a worse reaction, lead to complications, and eventual death in men than women over time.

China Study

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

We've evened out, now 30 males 30 females

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

It is my understanding that it is usually tipped much more towards the males.
Not sure I'm happy about equality of outcome here.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

And that article doesn't help. It present near worst case anecdotes of "recovered" patients, but doesn't provide any reference data. Are these complications 1 out of 100 cases, 1 out of 10 or 1 out of 2?

Someone mentioned up thread about a neighbor who wears a mask outside to do yard work to protect themselves? This type of journalism is using sensationalism to drive fear.

It amazes me how some people care so much about folks potentially wearing a mask in situations that don't necessarily require them. If they want to wear a mask outside, who cares? It doesn't harm you, unlike the folks who don't wear a mask when they're inside public spaces.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

I don't care if someone wears a mask when they don't need to. I am offering an explanation why they might.

Best post-Father's Day present ever: I GOT MY HAIR CUT!!!!!!!!

Had never been to this place. The lady who cut my hair used to work at the place I used to go before it closed down. Had not seen her in probably 10 years. Cut was $25. I gave her a $50, said keep the change, and tipped every other barber in the place $3 just for being there.

Hey, wife and I have come through this with very little economic damage. Others have been hit much harder. If you are in good shape and it won't hurt, please consider giving extra to those who are just getting back to work. Have had a bunch of food bank requests, so those would also be good places to consider.

Have a great day all.

Recovering scientist working in business consulting

Shit, I've decided I'm never paying to have my hair cut again, my wife did the last two cuts and it turned out just as good as what I used to pay for, lol

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I would too but she takes too long. Almost an hour versus 20 minutes max and I will continue to minutely fund the local economy.

Yeah, I realize if everyone was of my mindset, it would create an issue, but I decided that if she's willing to do it (she is), the place I used to go wasn't going to be too affected by missing out on my $10 every 3 months, and the lady that cut my hair probably won't notice the $5 tip every 3 months either

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I had my 10yo daughter take a set of clippers to my hair, and it works fine for me. (The wife did have to do a bit of touch-up, though.) I may not ever pay for a haircut again, either.

I think a lot of Americans are recalibrating needs and wants these days. I know I am.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Wife and I are discovering efficiencies like never before. Also reassessing what it is we really need; we're eating better; using our time better; etc.

Son and daughter-in-law just downsized to one car. Wife and I could probably do the same.

My partner and I accidentally downsized to one car a few years ago when she changed jobs. When she turned in her company car, we decided to take our time buying a new one and before we knew it we had learned how to live with one car with relative ease. We love it!!

Note: we both work from home and don't have kids. If either of those were different, one vehicle would be tough.

I'm fascinated by what post-covid trends will exist. Increased acceptance for remote work, telehealth, etc is a given, but I'm wondering what other trends we'll see.

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I wish masks. It's normal in many places and really helps with many other transmittable illnesses.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

I'm curious. Can you elaborate on this? What extent of mask wearing do you wish to become normal post COVID? Masks worn by people with symptoms and/or a positive test result of some communicable disease? Or masks worn by "everyone" like we're supposed to be doing now?

I'm on board with the former, and honestly I think my family will probably do this in the future any time one of us has a cold, flu, etc. But not sure I understand the motivation for mass use of masks, outside of a pandemic event or air pollution.

Regarding the commonplace occurrence of this in other places, I'm not aware of this but I don't ever travel internationally. Are masks commonly worn by everyone in places outside the US, aside from when a pandemic or air pollution create a need? Seems like an extreme measure and possibly a counter productive one, to have everyone wearing masks prophylactically.

when you feel sick, wear a mask to help prevent anyone else from getting what you got. very common, especially in asia and pacific countries.

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

"when you feel sick" being the sooooo operative expression here.

True Story, Bro... A friend of mine works at a large paper mill in logistics. He sits in an office all day by himself. He's required to wear a mask all day according to company policy. He started to not feel well a few weeks ago and went to the doctor. His doctor told him he needed to ditch the mask because it was impeding his breathing and causing his blood pressure to increase. The doctor wrote him a note to not wear a mask. His employer was furious and they actually just sent him home with pay.

This doctor also went on to tell him they have seen a lot of non-COVID respiratory illness presented by people who wear masks all day. They are infecting themselves with their own breath and bacteria build up.

If you tell people to always wear a mask, they will literally do that, to their detriment. There's always a happy medium. Our "experts" need to emphasize that masks really should only be used when social distancing is in jeopardy. If you're walking your dog by yourself... leave it at home. If you're in a 1200 sq ft space by yourself, take it off. The mask brigade likes to shame non-mask wearers as being idiots. Well, if you're wearing a mask and you're not sick and you're not within 20 ft of another human being, you need to go to the mirror store and take a look.

Leonard. Duh.

Yes, there are always specific exceptions to every rule. I have found it to be quite clear that you should only wear a mask when around other people, especially indoors, but anecdotally I have found many people don't bother. Do I give those people in the grocery store the sideye? Yes. They're putting me at risk by not wearing one.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

I agree with your point here...conversely, if you are walking around a busy grocery store with no mask on, you are, indeed, an idiot (among other things)

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

This doctor also went on to tell him they have seen a lot of non-COVID respiratory illness presented by people who wear masks all day. They are infecting themselves with their own breath and bacteria build up.

This is exactly what I'm being told by physician friends including cardiologists and thoraxic surgeons. Wearing a mask at all times is not good. Like anything else, in moderation, wearing it when it is unnecessarily is not good.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

This particular doctor, according to my friend, is anti-mask unless you are feeling sick or you are around the elderly.

I only have one doctor friend who I talk to regularly. He feels the same way. He actually vented a little about a patient who had a respiratory illness that the doctor says was caused by the mask being worn too frequently. This patient became argumentative and exclaimed, "That's not what THEY say!"

What do you do with that? This guy is your doctor, man. Who are "THEY"?

In the span of about 90 days our country has become a den of miseducated, germaphobe, paranoid, cabin fever nutjobs. Heart breaking.

Leonard. Duh.

Man, I was a paranoid, germaphobe before it became trendy. Dang hipsters copping my style.

On second thought, does bloviating about being into something before it became mainstream make me the "hipster"?

"Mountains get big cause they have no natural predators." - Ken M

As with anything, there is a line somewhere which shouldn't be crossed. Too much of anything is obviously bad. Sitting by yourself with a mask on at your desk isolated in an office is clearly overkill.

However, applying conditions to everything can cause problems too. For mass audiences, there ends up being either too many conditions or people omit the conditions when relaying the "bottom line" to others. This results in poor information dissemination and can affect a lot of people, but especially those like my 71 year old mother. She was given advice by her chiropractor (hey, look, another doctor!!) to stop wearing masks. She told me "it has something to do with breathing your own oxygen". She's f*cking confused by this. She should wear a mask, period. Pointing out weird exceptions and presenting it as if it applies to everyone does not help the matter. If 97% of people are fine doing it, EVERYONE should be told to do it.

It's funny how people want to listen to the doctor who says to not wear the mask, but fight the 7,394,327 doctors who say to wear them. I'm not trying to conflate the two things, but this chiropractor/Dr. that told my mom to not wear a mask also happens to be anti-vax. I don't believe in coincidences.

Seriously, surgeons and nurses wear this gear for hours on end for years. I've never once been concerned that a medical professional would pass out (reduced oxygen/increased blood pressure) due to wearing a mask. I'm sure there absolutely are people out there who should not wear masks, but I don't believe that number to be high enough to "warn the public". Have you seen those videos of Karen's challenging store managers on mask policies? It's crazy how they are always recording before the incident starts and somehow all have this same medical condition that prevents them from being able to breathe in masks. /s

I have asthma and wear them. My 4 year old has a 'reactive airway disease' and moderate bronchialmalacia and he still seems to breathe in his mask, if not a little labored. It doesn't stop him from running around and pretending to be a ninja. His Pulmonologist didn't address breathing as a potential concern when telling us to put masks on him. We are fortunate, we only need to wear them in short durations. But putting it out there that "masks are dangerous" could have waaaay more detrimental affects than to the few that actually have that condition.

we only need to wear them in short durations.

Give the people all the info, not just an across the board decree.

George Carlin had a great line. Imagine a person with the average intelligence. Now Recognize that 1/2 the people are dumber than that.
this is a great joke because we don't stop to think about the difference between dumb/intelligence and lack of knowledge.

by definition 1/2 the people are dumber than the other half. The corollary is that 1/2 the people are more intelligent than the other half.

But most people do not have the time or inclination to seek out in depth knowledge on a topic. I am naturally contrary and so I seek out the knowledge any time my spidey sense tingles. That's why sometimes I get exasperated and repeatedly ask things like, "but what do the mean tested positive for covid" because that is inherently meaningless.

TL;DR Most people are smart enough to understand the knowledge they need to decide well when and when not to perform actions. The leadership will not acknowledge this and so do not or will not pass this information on. therefore the various recommended actions have become politicized.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I probably shouldn't say anything, but I am unaware of any detrimental effects to wearing a mask beyond making people anxious and causing physical discomfort around your ears. Anxiety is real and can lead to more serious health effects, including elevated blood pressure. If I had a patient that was getting significant anxiety from wearing a mask I would certainly try to find safe ways to minimize the time with a mask on. That being said, masks don't cause you to infect yourself with your own breath. They don't cause decreased oxygen or increased CO2 like I've seen posted on facebook.

The question of optimizing the risk benefit of when masks should be worn will be endlessly debated and I won't get into that. I personally think there is great benefit in simple, clear directives from folks in authority to shape public health behavior. But that's not really important. Just wanted to add my 2 cents regarding masks.

Thanks. That's kinda what I figured. And I'm 100% on board with this. I just wasn't sure which of the two scenarios I presented is what fireman was hoping became normal.

In many Asian cultures it is basically a requirement to wear a mask when you're sick (cold, flu, whatever). As someone who commonly catches colds that tend to linger, I would love for the US to adopt that mindset.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Food service workers should now wear masks at all times working. Anyone who feels sick should wear a mask when in public.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Common question
Can the coronavirus disease be spread through food?

Coronaviruses are generally thought to be spread from person to person through respiratory droplets. Currently, there is no evidence to support transmission of COVID-19 associated with food. Before preparing or eating food it is important to always wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds for general food safety. Throughout the day use a tissue to cover your coughing or sneezing, and wash your hands after blowing your nose, coughing or sneezing, or going to the bathroom.

It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object, like a packaging container, that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

In general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from food products or packaging.

Learn what is known about the spread of COVID-19.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) frequently asked questions | CDCwww.cdc.gov β€Ί coronavirus β€Ί 2019-ncov β€Ί fa

Leonard. Duh.

This goes beyond COVID. Flu, common cold, etc. not to mention the waiter taking your order or the person ringing you up are all included in that. Again it's a simple practice that would limit the spread of illnesses to the public at large

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

Like I said in a previous post. We have become victims of a collective germaphobe psychosis. We have an immune system for a reason. Microbes aren't going anywhere, so Mother Nature equips us with a bad ass gang of killers to seek and destroy.

Besides that, since restaurants opened, I've seen food service workers doing some fucked up shit with masks and gloves on. (Ex. Manager of a diner in a mask and gloves rings up a customer, handles his money then directly walks back to the pick up window and picks up rolls with the same gloved hands and puts them on somebody's plate.

I just believe the way many people wear masks and gloves defeats the purpose, and they may be (in a lot of cases) better off just washing hands, and covering coughs and sneezes. (which has been proper social practice since the invention of indoor plumbing and flushing toilets.)

Leonard. Duh.

We have an immune system for a reason.

That immune system has to adapt, by design. It's not an impenetrable wall. And some people's overactive immune response is why they're getting more severe disease. Any symptom of any pathogen is basically your immune system's fault for trying to rid the body of the invader.

Your body as far as I know can't build up a natural immunity to the common cold or flu (because it changes from year to year). Again we as a species are where we are because of modern medicine, modern cleaning and clean and safe water and food. Having trained food service workers wearing a mask is no different than a hairnet for example.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

Join us in the Key Players Club

In many places more densely populated than most of the U.S., masks are worn when someone has a cold.
For instance, when I was in Japan, I learned to wear a mask when I had a cough or sneeze. Remember that the most highly used surface train/subway system in the world is here and that there are intersections where a thousand people at a time would cross an intersection. Shibuya crossing was really cool.

Shinjuku station is the most highly used train station in the world. This is typical of people lining up to get on the train.

The cultural shift is much more than just masks. You can see in this photo, some people in masks. Note that these masks are much more comfortable than the makeshift stuff we have. They are also more effective. There is no politicization of it, people that don't wear them are not derided as they are here and the clear implication is that these masks are actually effective in their better design.

For instance, during rush hour, they employ young men, in brash uniforms and white gloved, to push on people in the back to shove as many into the train as possible, as fast as possible.
Try that in NYC.

On the other hand they do things that we would find appalling. Need to pee? Whip it out and try to pee where people don't walk such on on the train tracks right there in the busy station or right down the storm drains in the middle of the block.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I had to go to the VADMV recently for a title swap. I made my appointment 3 weeks in advance, and I was in there for a total of 25 minutes. It. Was. Fucking. Awesome.

I really, really hope the DMV gets its virtual queue platform perfected and goes all appointment, all the time. I would have been there for at least an hour and half if it was first come first serve.

Leonard. Duh.

Got tested as a precaution today. I was briefly around one of my younger sisters whose test result came back positive on Saturday along with most of her friends. I was around her last Sunday (8 days ago), and have had no symptoms yet. Hopefully this comes back negative, but in the mean time I'll be quarantining away from others while I await results.

The brain swab wasn't so bad, unpleasant but not painful, though it did make my left eye water involuntarily. Slight burning sensation.

Hopefully after the swab, you no longer have a dirty mind.

In all serious, hope it is negative.

I've got an appointment on the 30th. Dare Co. is doing its third round of "mass" testing for residents, free with insurance. These mass tests are purely for people showing no symptoms, and this one includes an antibody test as well.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Good on Dare co. I wish my county of Orange County, CA had similar testing.

A couple of weeks ago, I randomly developed cold-like symptoms (cough, sore throat, fatigue) but not severe (no fever, no shortness of breath, no chills). I called my doctor to get tested, but I couldn't get a test because my symptoms were not severe, I was not in an at-risk group (age, comorbidities, etc.) and I was not living with at-risk individual, and based on the local guidelines of OC, my symptoms and lack of risk were not worthy of a test. Two days later, I ended up going to a urgent care facility and paid for a test out-of-pocket. Turned out negative (it was just a minor cold), but I found it surreal to me that OC wasn't be interested in testing for potentially mild-symptomatic cases. One county over (both LA and SD counties) were provided tests for residents for any reason.

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Shit man. Here's hoping for the best

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

But that's the same number, right?

Guessing that (theoretically at least) a particular hospital running short on beds COULD use an ICU bed as regular bed even though the patient might not need that level of care. Doubting that's the case but it is POSSIBLE

From the 2018 VT-uva game-"This is when LEGENDS are made!"

Actually, that makes sense.

"There has been new wording in terms of, do individuals have intensive-level care," Rivkees said, noting that some hospitals have located COVID-19 wards within intensive-care units and are reporting all COVID-19 patients as ICU patients. "So make sure that when you are giving us numbers of individuals in intensive-care units, it's those individuals having intensive-care unit care."

Rivkees is the Florida Surgeon General and secretary of the DOH.

From https://floridapolitics.com/archives/342565-florida-changes-icu-reporting

Sounds like they're just trying to the most accurate numbers, and not to create an arbitrary distinction to make the numbers smaller.

They are using ICU as isolation wards and therefore had to count beds occupied by isolated patients in ICU, as ICU bed useage making the numbers look worse, inadvertently.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

But were they billing insurance based on ICU rate when really they should have been in regular isolation rooms. Hmmmm. Giving them the benefit of doubt, their facility may not have had the capabilities to do negative pressure rooms except in the ICU.

Probably billing at the ICU rate at that would probably more closely reflect their cost AND by law they probably have to as the medical billing code would reflect the ICU bed.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Yeah, most likely because of the COVID units in the ICU (but not requiring ICU level care). And patients can be physically in the ICU but getting better and be classified as acute care and waiting for a transfer out. Probably nothing devious, just trying to better capture actual available resources.

This actually makes some sense? Some hospitals might need to place covid patients in a ICU unit depending on how full/empty the hospital is, even if they aren't in a serious enough condition to be placed in an ICU unit under normal conditions. Idk if that's a skewing or numbers or not, but I sort of understand wanting to Clarify that "icu beds filled"
Doesn't mean every patient in those units is receiving critical care.

Today, 6/22/20, there are twice as many hospital beds available in the state of Florida than there were before the pandemic curve flattening began in March.

Leonard. Duh.

As someone that spent the last six months in several hospitals due to Corona, pneumonia and MRSA, I cant stress enough how good it is to have my Hokie home back in my life. Still working through some things but its better than the alternative. Hug your kids because you never know when you will see them once in six months. Good to be home.

Sorry to hear that! I hope you're on the mend for good now!

So sorry to hear that you caught it and had issues. Glad you are on the mend.

Glad you're doing alright. Sounds like a hell of an ordeal. Welcome back!

Thanks, definitely some scary moments although I was in an induced coma for the worst parts

geez! very glad you made it...stay well.

Which came first, if you don't mind me asking? Was the pneumonia a result of the other two? Glad that you are home and doing better!

Turned right ankle came first, ER thought my breathing was labored so they drew blood. White blood cell count was 5 times normal. Sent to ICU, remember about 6 hours on December 17th, next it was January 22nd. Pneumonia and MRSA were diagnosed together. Septic shock occurred as well and kidneys were closed to failing. Also had a clot pass through my heart into my lungs. Neuropathy occurred from pressure on nerves from not moving while in coma.

Damn. That sounds like a hell of an ordeal.

Hopefully you're on the up and up after that.

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Damn, sorry to hear that man. Amazing you recovered, and thank goodness for that turned ankle. Glad to have you back on TKP!

Welcome to 2020 man........hold on tight....it's gonna be a ride.
Happy you made it through.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Damn man, I'd be thanking my lucky stars for turning that ankle!

Glad to hear you're on the mend.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

It definitely was a blessing in disguise

Hear, hear, brother. Glad you are getting to the other side of this.

Leonard. Duh.

Dang bro... I'm glad you're OK. Welcome back!

Is coronavirus over yet?

Blacksburg might be looking at an uptick in cases relatively soon. Some really stupid decisions made by a bunch of younger people in the last few days or so combined with bars reopening has Montgomery County as one of the highest increases in cases over the last three days in the entire state.

Just something to keep an eye on as VT is set to announce their finalized plans for the fall semester soon and as VA moves more and more towards Phase 3 (too quickly, imo).

If I had any vote in the matter, we would stay in Phase 2 for at least another month. What is happening in Florida, Arizona, and Texas is crazy. They are proof that opening too early is a stupid decision.

Well, it's not just opening early. I think part of the issue is there are a decent amount of people who believe everything was blown way out of proportion by the media and when stuff opened, they went back to normal as if nothing was going on. No masks, gloves, or social distancing. Add to that the stuff I've seen about heat and sunlight killing the virus and people in those states think there's even less of a chance they'll get it.

Are you saying you do not believe the "stuff" about heat/sunlight killing the virus?

I'm actually just asking the question... your post was just not clear to me. My apologies.

Leonard. Duh.

I have zero idea - maybe on surfaces for a certain amount of time, but heat alone, if you're not going to social distance or take other precautions, not really. There's been so much about things experts "think" so it's hard to keep track. Also, I think if there's more to it, like "heat will kill Coronavirus on a hard surface in 6 hours compared to 12 hours (numbers made up for example purposes)" but all people see is heat kills it (maybe reading a headline alone) so they think in hot Florida they'll be safe so don't wear masks, gloves, or social distance. Or people think it's a hoax regardless, so not taking precautions, but, like I said, there's a LOT of new cases in Florida and Texas, so can't think you'll be safe just because it's over 90 outside.

It will kill the virus as quickly as it takes the sunlight to destroy the necessary part of the RNA that would negatively impact the ability of the virus to insert it's successful RNA into the host cell.
That apparently does not take long but, it would vary greatly day to day according to the sun's output of energy as it reaches the earth, that day, and the atmospheric filtering for that day. The cell wall is too thin to effectively block any of the energy waves that would cause damage to the RNA.

To turn that into english.
Sunlight will definitiely "kill" - denature the virus. The variable is time and energy intensity as it reaches the cell wall.

On a bright sunny day, that time is quite short, matter of minutes. On a cloudy day, it'll still happen, just take longer.

Similar to the relationship of tree rings and certain atmospheric conditions, a proxy might be the rate at which you sunburn.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Sunlight will not impact virus viability at night and inside such as a pickup beach bar.
Heat will have an imperceptible impact in the same place.

Neither will impact mouth to mouth transfer or any other physical transfer where air is never encountered.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

I'd assume if people aren't social distancing and someone coughs in a group (even outside), people can catch it easily and quickly. Not sure how everyone is catching it, just know that a lot of people aren't wearing masks or taking other precautions around where I live in Florida (just south of Jacksonville).

It has been shown that outside, it's really hard to inhale enough virus cells, that are viable, to become infected.

The combination of exponential expansion of the breath "cloud" exacerbated by any breeze, the lack of a mask allowing cells to be exhaled back out again and not trapped by a mask, light energy really make it hard to catch it outside.

People have this misunderstanding that it only takes one or a very small number of virus cells to cause an infection. The number of cells ingested and actually make it to the proper cells in the lung over a short period of time will determine if it survives, survives enough to be an asymptomatic infection or a full blown infection, along with the response of the immune system by the person.

Unless you are packed into a tight group, its hard to catch outside.
A lot tougher than being in a car with the windows rolled up and A/C on even if you both have a mask.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Nitpick from your friendly neighborhood biochemistry professor: viruses are not, by definition, cells. They are non-living particles that lack characteristic cellular structure.

Agreed, 100%. It's basic biology but, it's a decent shortcut.

non-living particles that lack characteristic cellular structure

is just too long to type regularly. They are not alive and "cell" is the closest shortcut I had. I'll change it if you have a better one. I sometimes use particle but it's also imprecise.

So many people think this is alive that I've tired of having to explain it. I use the term "denature" instead of "kill", for the destruction of the virus "cell". Do you have a better term?

This is going to be great for the ACC.

The term you're looking for is "virion." You can use "denature" because it's likely correct; mechanistically that means to unfold proteins or destabilize structure. "Inactivate" may be a more colloquial way to say the same thing.

If I use "virion" nobody will know, except us guys, what the heck that means.

I've decided on "virus type non-living non-cell packages of RNA thingys"

It's more understood than "virion" and the point is to communicate.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Most of my friends are doctors or chefs or brewers, "Denature" is well understood in that group.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

whether or not a virus is "alive" (which truly depends on how you want to define the term), the vaccine field often uses the following terms:

  • live virus- fully competent virus
  • killed virus- incompetent virus, (often denatured but not necessarily)
  • attenuated virus- competent but weakened to a point it cannot transmit

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Got you. I haven't heard much about heat, but sunlight definitely kills all coronaviruses. That's ancient history. If it's 90 outside, and you're outside also, you're in a pretty good place.

Leonard. Duh.

Yeah, I knew sunlight kills stuff (it's why high end air filtration systems have UV lights as well if I'm not mistaken). Just wasn't sure how quickly it happened for Coronavirus.

I thought the surgeon general just said that heat/light might not kill the virus as fast as first believed?

The surgeon general has also repeatedly said don't wear masks. I don't know where he gets his information or if it's just opinions based on his own medical experience or even if he is bowing to any party politics in his messages. You'd think he'd be a good source of information, but the repeated no mask recommendations trouble me.

Very good point, I will just continue to wear my mask anytime I am near a crowd.

Seems a very good idea.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Show where the US Surgeon General has said REPEATEDLY don't wear a mask...

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

he did suggest early that masks are not necessary (prior to our better understanding), but not lately.

I've not heard from any doctors about not wearing a mask these days, besides the anecdotes on this website. That said, I would imagine that those with poor health that suffer from shortness of breath from light exercise probably would be advised to not wear a mask, or perhaps should make use of an oxygen supply under their mask.

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He's been an advocate of wearing masks, even posting a video on Twitter on how to make your own, since the beginning of April. The repeatedly is the troubling thing since I keep seeing it. Since April, over 2 and a half months, he's not said that.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Yep. Agreed. Saw that video a long while ago now.

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he did suggest early that masks are not necessary (prior to our better understanding), but not lately.

Actually, according to Fauci himself as of late, there was no "prior to our better understanding". He lied to the country early on to save the masks for healthcare workers.

Edit- And there was no suggestion from the CDC. The pamplet that was distributed in February says DO NOT wear a mask. It will not protect you. I'm paraphrasing, but that's really close.

Leonard. Duh.

Do you recall the quote or have a link to that Fauci statement (for my own personal reasons)? I don't doubt that he said that, but I just haven't seen him say that and would be helpful to understand the context. Also, it's critical to differentiate which type of mask: N95, medical, or cloth.

Undoubtedly, the idea of presymptomatic spread wasn't fully appreciated until April with first indications presymptomaic spread coming from China from publications in late Feb and March. (Link) That's when the appreciation for the general public to wear masks to prevent a- and presymptomatic spread was established.

Edit- And there was no suggestion from the CDC. The pamplet that was distributed in February says DO NOT wear a mask. It will not protect you. I'm paraphrasing, but that's really close.

Confused a bit here. That seems to imply that in Feb, it was suggested that masks do not prevent spread.

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Link for Fauci quote...

And the CDC pamphlet goes back to late March...the 15 day thing. And it didn't mention masks, but don't confuse that with suggesting that masks aren't necessary. That's going way back to the beginning of this. April 1 is when the Surgeon General started talking about wearing them, and others followed suit.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Thanks for sharing. Also found this video:

Note that his quote is about protecting yourself, not others, and says nothing about us further gaining a better understanding of a- and presymptomatic spread.

In the end, we know this:
Masks aren't great at preventing yourself from getting sick, but provided SOME benefit. This concept was known since the beginning of the epidemic and still holds true. So, yea, there was misleading of the public when it was stated that masks do not provide benefit. But, in the early days, when considering we only thought it provided SOME benefit and we weren't fully aware of how the virus was being spread without symptoms, the perceived benefit didn't outweigh the costs due to the lack of available PPE for medical workers.

In addition, we learned from studies that the prevalence of presymptomatic spread was much higher for coronavirus than we initially anticipated. Thus, we gained an understanding that people with minor or no symptoms can transmit the disease pretty readily. We also understood that masks do help significantly from passing the disease onward. This knowledge of transmission is the pillar to the mask suggestions in April and the mandates that are in place today. Now, the the perceived benefits of wearing a mask clearly outweigh the costs as cloth masks are available on every street corner and the PPE levels for medical workers is relatively stable.

So, I guess there are differences in opinion here, but I think the gained appreciation of coronavirus transmission was a much greater influence on the wearing of masks than the knowledge we had early on. In other words, if we didn't gain an appreciation for the asymptomatic spread, I don't think the surgeon general or CDC would be pushing for the wearing of masks today.

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So, I guess there are differences in opinion here, but I think the gained appreciation of coronavirus transmission was a much greater influence on the wearing of masks than the knowledge we had early on. In other words, if we didn't gain an appreciation for the asymptomatic spread, I don't think the surgeon general or CDC would be pushing for the wearing of masks today.

This is such an important point. So much of SARS-CoV-2 has surprised us. Scientists are working at a pace I have never seen. We learn more each day. It is confusing for the public, but for those of us who are trained to constantly adapt our thinking, it seems sort of intuitive. Stuff changes, sometimes really fast, so it is really important for our public health officials to make it clear, in simple terms, why the thinking has changed. They haven't always done a great job of that.

Here you go.

From the article...

He also acknowledged that masks were initially not recommended to the general public so that first responders wouldn't feel the strain of a shortage of PPE.

He explained that public health experts "were concerned the public health community, and many people were saying this, were concerned that it was at a time when personal protective equipment, including the N95 masks and the surgical masks, were in very short supply."

The official CDC pamplet from February said, and now I'm quoting... "There is no need to wear a mask if you are well, and do not have any symptoms."

Leonard. Duh.

Our understanding of this disease and our response to it has evolved continually. The article does not say that masks don't work or aren't necessary at this time - indeed the story was different a few months ago, but this is largely due to a completely botched response and lack of preparedness. I watched nearly all of the press conferences from the task force and the discussion was quite nuanced. As the article quotes Dr. Fauci, masks do provide some level of protection; this was said from the beginning. However, there were mitigating factors, including (1) lack of adequate supply and thus the emphasis on keeping first responders stocked, (2) the emphasis on physical distancing, which was in some areas rolled out way too slowly, (3) the psychological effect that mask-wearing has, that is, people feel overconfident because they think they are safe, and (4) the risk vs. benefit of wearing the mask as those without training/practice tend to touch their faces more.

It has become abundantly clear that people in generally are resisting or are sick of physical distancing, making mask-wearing all the more important. Nothing that has been said (at least recently) contradicts that. The recommendation against masks was predominantly at a time of low supply and relatively low incidence of the disease. The game has changed. A recent study concluded that if 80% of people wore masks in public, there would be no second wave of COVID-19 in the United States. We're already ticking back up, and on the current trajectory, it's only going to get worse, perhaps worse than the first spike in cases.

So it sounds like you are saying:

1) we were lied to in order to conserve supply
2) masks actually are critical to preventing the spread of the virus

If those two points are correct, the conclusion I would draw is that the CDC should not have lied to the public even if they thought it was in our best interest

Recruit Prosim

Who lied? The recommendation changed because the situation changed. And if you paid enough attention, the reason for the initial guidance not to wear masks was fully explained.

Thanks for sharing. And I agree with our resident VT biochemistry professor here.

To add on, there is no suggestion from the Fauci quote that this statement below is accurate:

Actually, according to Fauci himself as of late, there was no "prior to our better understanding".

As I stated above, we have learned a significant amount about coronavirus transmission and I don't think there would be mask suggestions or requirements without this better understanding.

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We're good. I also agree with our Bio-Chem prof as well in the context of our response has been botched from the beginning.

Leonard. Duh.

Early on, yes. There was a concern that if he'd told people to wear masks, the rush to get them would leave hospital workers lacking. So they said don't wear masks. And there's been a lot of criticism over that decision.

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

March 2 (link) - he says wearing a mask may actually increase risk of catching it.

March 31 (link) - he reiterates that they may increase risk and doesn't recommend wearing them.

So yes, it was early, but he said on two different occasions not to wear them (repeatedly) because they can increase the risk of people catching it. Going from saying they can increase the risk to recommending wearing them is a big shift and could most likely confuse people ("why should I wear one now? - you thought it'd be more likely for me to catch it from wearing one before").

And for the past nearly 3 months he says to wear them. Repeatedly. If you want to rely on old information that's on you. But this details many of the issues surrounding this entire process: conflicting information and the people choosing what they want to believe no matter if its the latest or best information.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

You questioned my use of "repeatedly" - so I was responding to that. And even if it's old information, being told that it actually INCREASES your risk of infection, to now, yes, you should wear one, is probably confusing to people.

Just because information is old doesn't mean it's bad. Why did they think it would increase the risk before (you're putting your hands all over your face) - so now, what, putting my hands all over my face isn't bad? No, that's still bad. Well then, putting my hands all over my face for a mask is okay, but not if you're not putting a mask on?

Because the now observed benefits outweigh the risk. Science changes in real time as information is gathered. So yes, old information can be bad information, especially as you learn more.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

Personally I wouldn't say twice is repeatedly. A few times, sure. But whatever...

Asbestos was repeatedly used in construction during older times. Wrapping water pipes, siding, shingles, etc. But hey, what do we know now, right?

And I'm not sure how you are putting a mask on, but I'm touching my ears when I put a clean mask on.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

The reasoning for the increased risk is touching your face. And yes, cheaper masks only require you to put it over your ears, but the more effective masks have a strip that goes over your nose that you pinch to conform to your face, meaning it's much easier to touch your face near your nose. And wearing glasses doesn't make wearing a mask any easier, especially if you're pinching the mask near your nose.

Yeah, and mercury was once thought of cure-all until we learned more about it too.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Fauci said himself he told people not to wear them because he was worried about health care workers not getting them. That doesn't sound like he learned more about masks. That sounds like he didn't want a public run on the mask market, so he made up a story.

That's my point.

Leonard. Duh.

He didn't make up a story. It was reality. Our nation's supply at that time was inadequate. Had more been available and readily distributed, we would have all been better off.

The practical reality was if doctors and nurses started dying off because everyone was hoarding masks from Amazon, we'd all be fucked.

Sounds like we need regulation to mandate that hospitals keep larger stocks of emergency equipment.

The fact that healthcare professionals would have to fight with the general public for PPE through the same supply chain is ridiculous in the first place. A hospital shouldn't be going to a brick and mortar Walmart and picking masks off the shelf, so there shouldn't be any harm in having the general population do it

Recruit Prosim

Agreed, also relevant....states shouldn't have to secretly order testing kits and PPE, hide them and keep armed guards on site for fear that the federal government would seize it.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

There are regulations.
If the supply is too large during "normal" times, things expire. (This already happened....)
And true, a hospital shouldn't be fighting with the public to get supplies. If only there was a provision that could have been used..........

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

Sounds like we need regulation to mandate that hospitals keep larger stocks of emergency equipment.

As long as healthcare is privatized where there is more of an emphasis on cutting cost and making profits, you're always going to have a tough time getting any of these hospitals to keep a large enough stock of this equipment around. Its how we got in this situation to begin with.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

I agree that a fear of a short supply was the reality. It is also reality that the official CDC guidance pamplet released in February stated to not wear a mask... that it would not protect you. Why not just release guidance based on the reality of short supply? They could have recommended "face covering" as is being pushed right now.

All I'm saying is people are trying to make the point that the mask recommendation evolved from new evidence about the virus, when in fact Fauci has stated that he did what he did only out of concern for the short supply.

And.... this is becoming a horse corpse being mercilessly beaten over semantics. I'm done. I'll give you all the last word.

Leonard. Duh.

Masks don't protect the wearer unless they are N95 filters. That's true and has always been true.

Supply was limited and as with any disease mitigation strategy, resources need to be allocated in the most effective manner. Health care professionals and other first-line responders needed them more.

Both of these things were true, remain true, and were communicated to the public. I don't understand what the argument is about. No one lied. The story only "changed" when the CDC recommended masks for the general public. Supplies were available and the disease was spreading rapidly due to a series of other failures. We learned that asymptomatic spread was a far greater contributor than we previously thought. The scientific understanding improved. That's a good thing.

90% of the masks I see out and around are either handmade or the paper masks that are readily available.

Had a woman waggle her finger at me because I didn't put on my mask until I was about to enter the store and a nice breezy sunny day last weekend.

Her mask was very dirty and appeared to be made of cotton T-shirt type material that had been tie-dyed.. Not speculating too much to say that I guessed all she knew was mask and didn't know why. These things have to be cleaned regularly and that some of the dyes are good bacteria breeding grounds.

I stayed well away from her so I did not breath in what the heck she was spewing out.

This is going to be great for the ACC.


Are you talking about this? It doesn't say anything about masks.
Or this from the CDC, which also doesn't say antyhing about masks...
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/icd/ICD-10-CM-Official-Coding-Gudance-Interim-Advice-coronavirus-feb-20-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2c9LrGMAhum_Ogu-LrxPJ-S4u_j4wGW1615I_fmoiDB5AA0wKHKitjoXo

Why not just release guidance based on the reality of short supply?

If you cannot sort thru to get to the answer for this, then you won't see it. The CG's won't allow a direct response.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
@BuryHokie #ThanksFrank

I think we may be conflating two similar but different concepts:

(1) the virus is seasonal and will dissipate in the summer
(2) virus isn't spread easily outside due to UV rays, heat, wind dispersion, and other outside elements.

The former idea was based on the idea of the influenza virus and previous coronaviruses but is proving to not be true with this coronavirus. The latter idea is true. 90% of coronavirus spread has been suggested to be indoors.

One hypothesis on why coronavirus is spreading at high rates in FL, TX, and AZ right now is due to the temperatures and/or humidity in those regions, so when people are going "outside" their home they're going to public indoor place that blasts AC.

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This bit with the virus in the summer, I noted as well that warm humid environments such as Malaysian region and Philippines seemed to have a decent spread. I don't think the warmer weather wil prevent the spread, the spending time out of doors and getting your daily Vit D through sunlight will help.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Doesn't #2 at least partially cause #1?

Recruit Prosim

Yes but it's not that straight forward, it's more of a 2 or 3 order logical progression.

Spending time outside, as opposed to indoors that is flooded with virus type non-living non-cell packages of RNA thingys (can't say cell anymore), will mean there is less time in an environment that will be conducive to acquiring sufficient virus type non-living non-cell packages of RNA thingys into your lungs.

Its more of a function that in temperate climates, people will spend more time in environments less flooded with virus type non-living non-cell packages of RNA thingys because they go outside more when the weather is warm except for a few places that are unpleasant in warmer weather, such as most of Arizona and especially down in the bowl like Phoenix, parts of Texas and New Mexico. Desert like areas. And places that are very humid such as Florida.

In the U.S. beaches negate that in very hot environments such as along the coastal east and gulf south.

If you spent more time outside in winter, the result is bascally the same.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Yes. That is part of the reason why influenza is seasonal. But, this coronavirus isn't acting seasonal. And also what Egbert said.

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Any more information on this? Not sure if this is anecdotal or if something newsworthy happened. VDH still has Montgomery County at 110 cases.

And that 110 was a pretty large uptick as of the other day. We were holding steady below 70 or so, then soon after Phase I, we edged up and have been steadily climbing through Phase II, with the latest spike just a couple days ago. Not a great sign, especially in an area with relatively low population density compared to other, more hard-hit regions of the state.

Thanks. I guess I didn't realize we had been in the 70s. For some reason I thought we were in the 110-120 range in late May. But that could have been one of the other counties I've been watching closely. It all runs together after a while, in my head at least.

NWSL (women's soccer) is scheduled to resume their season with a tournament starting this upcoming weekend. Over this past weekend, 10 players and staff from the Orlando Pride have tested positive for COVID-19, stemming from a few rookies going out clubbing 2 weeks ago with a college player from Colorado who was visiting.

Lots of drama involved, but the college player has already been dismissed from Colorado, and Orlando has had to cancel their entry into the tournament. Of the 6 players who have tested positive, 3 are rookies from UVa.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

A new study is claiming 8.7 million Americans were infected with COVID-19 in March, and went undiagnosed.

"The findings support a scenario where more than 8.7 million new SARS-CoV-2 infections appeared in the U.S. during March and estimate that more than 80% of these cases remained unidentified as the outbreak rapidly spread," Justin Silverman of Penn State University, Alex Washburne of Montana State University and colleagues at Cornell University and elsewhere, wrote.

Only 100,000 cases were officially reported during that time period, and the US still reports only 2.3 million cases as of Monday. But there was a shortage of coronavirus testing kits at the time.
The team used data collected from each state by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for influenza-like illness. The CDC uses this data to track the annual seasonal flu epidemic. It asks doctors to report all cases of people coming in for treatment for fever, cough and other symptoms caused by influenza.

"We found a clear, anomalous surge in influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatients during the COVID-19 epidemic that correlated with the progression of the epidemic in multiple states across the US," Silverman and colleagues wrote.

"The surge of non-influenza ILI outpatients was much larger than the number of confirmed cases in each state, providing evidence of large numbers of probable symptomatic COVID-19 cases that remained undetected."
These were people who showed up at a doctor's office or clinic with symptoms. Most people with Covid-19 likely never sought treatment of testing for it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/23/health/undetected-coronavirus-cases-march...

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I struggle with this kind of projection of information, because it doesn't seem to match the actual results. In my county in NY, the local officials have been very good at publishing data around testing and positive results. Early on, you had to have symptoms before they would test (this has changed). But even at that time less that 10% of the people tested were coming back as positive. That means 90 out of 100 people didn't have Covid-19, they had flu like symptoms.

I have heard people telling me over and over again, "I was really sick at the end of February/early March, and I must have had it." But if only 10 in 100 that were tested and had symptoms had it, odds are you didn't "have it". Nobody wants to hear that.

Locally there have been 66,197 test results received, and only 3,392 came back as positive. That's a 5% positive rate - in a county with 800,000 residents. Based on the numbers in this study, the number of local infections would have had to been much higher, so one would think the positive test result number would have been much higher.

Remember, this is in NY - where infection rates in March had to be higher than most areas - and yet the local numbers don't seem to support that many cases running around undetected that early.

Welp, the EU is planning to indefinitely ban travel from the US based on how badly we've botched this pandemic.

NYT link

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

I mean, our spread is still occurring, but we still currently have a lower percentage of deaths compared to total population (not to infections identified) than several EU countries. England was hit hard even with pretty extreme lockdown measures, but obviously aren't an EU country anymore. It's a bit revisionist history already for the EU to think they handled this better when Spain and Italy were absolutely disasters in terms of infections and deaths back in February and March.

A travel ban may very well make sense though to stop the spread, and I even wonder if a global travel freeze for 2 weeks would have done wonders to slow the spread if it had occurred earlier this year in conjunction with localized lockdowns.

There is also one factor that might be playing into this. The US is the size of the entire EU. Florida is our Italy and Spain was our New York.

Do I think things have been botched, probably. Do I think people could be doing better at the social distancing, 100% (maybe even 800%). Do I think that the health care system in the US definitely has to be revised, Yup. Do I think that there are idiots out there that actually still think this is a media hoax, unfortunately daggum.

This is also the same country that is dealing with a pretty heavy anti-vaccination movement lately where science is being outright ignored over the opinions of celebrities based upon a sham 'study' that was immediately debunked by the science community as well as the person who actually released the study himself.

Make no mistake, the anti-mask, COVID-hoax movement here has roots that go straight to how and why the anti-vax movement has been allowed to cultivate. The more we allowed that kind of anti-science conspiracy drivel to spread without actively clamping down on it for the good of the population, we set up the kind of scenario where an actual disease outbreak would ravage us. And given the recent outbreaks of things like measles and polio in regions where the anti-vax movement took hold, we absolutely should have seen this coming.

It really doesn't matter how big the US is, we are a very selfish country where we try to couch our own ignorance and our own inability to care about the greater good over my own personal freedom to do whatever I want, regardless of who it puts in harms way. And we've long struggled to reign that kind of behavior under control. So yeah, I don't blame the EU for cutting us off. And I wouldn't be surprised if most of the planet follows suit, and we remain isolated for a long time after this is all over. Because we have long showed we just don't give a shit about anyone but ourselves, and they're all kind of fed up with it.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

Pesky Americans and their desire for freedom. We really must reign in and take control of such selfish behavior. Who needs individual freedom when the government can take care of us all with their wise and good intentions?

I'm glad you seem to have it all figured out.

Because we have long showed we just don't give a shit about anyone but ourselves, and they're all kind of fed up with it.

I don't think that is the attitude of anywhere near most Americans. I'm not an anti-mask or COVID-hoax person. I will defend individual freedom all the way though. I understand where you are coming from, but you cannot paint American attitudes and behavior with such a broad brush. And you cannot paint those beliefs generally as anti-science and conspiracy drivel either. There are financial and political motives on both sides. There are legitimate issues regarding Big Pharma.

And I think we've gotten too political, so I won't comment further. It is all a very complicated issue, but we have to discuss and avoid sweeping gneralizations.

It's really simple. The reason why America is lagging behind other countries in dealing with COVID-19 is because Americans, in general, values individualism over collectivism. People here will scoff at and fight against something that is a minor inconvenience to them, even if it will protect their neighbor.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

More sweeping generalizations about Americans.

Most Americans that I know are very willing to help their neighbor, and go out of their way almost every day, dedicating time, energy, money, you name it, to help their neighbors and show kindness to them.

Cool, so the vast majority of Americans should be ready and willing to wear a mask! Excited to do their part even!

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I believe the vast majority of Americans have done everything that their government (federal, state, and local) has asked of them regarding the Covid response. It is actually been quite remarkable how willing the country was to shutdown, stay at home, change their way of life completely. There has actually been quite little resistance to it, in my opinion. I'm not interested in any sort of debate. As I said in my response to Alum, I just don't like seeing such generalizations being made about all "People here" in America being selfish and not caring about their neighbors.

As I said in my response to Alum, I just don't like seeing such generalizations being made about all "People here" in America being selfish and not caring about their neighbors.

There are decades of evidence that show, when it comes to acting on our own self-interests, we're willing to go out of our way to absolutely destroy entire regions to make it happen. And that was before the anti-vax mess and the absurd anti-mask and COVID-hoax movements.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

You're talking about American foreign policy which has been long controlled by war profiteers. That does not represent the general attitude of everyday Americans which largely shielded from the truths of American foreign policy. Two different things in my opinion. By "caring about neighbors", I'm talking here at home, literally my next door neighbor, that type of thing.

By "caring about neighbors", I'm talking here at home, literally my next door neighbor, that type of thing.

Its not lost on me that you're taking this stance in a subthread that is about the anti-vax, anti-mask, and COVID-hoax movements. Movements that in themselves are very much something that values the delusional beliefs of the individual over the well being of the populace.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

You have a problem with those movements, that is fine. I have not defended them in this sub-thread. My only point was to simply call out your broad brush stroke that painted all Americans as having selfish attitudes. That is it. Regardless of any stance that you or anyone else may have on any of these topics, I don't think those types of statements help inform the discussion. As for American foreign policy, I don't want to get into it, other than to say Americans are misrepresented when it comes to that. American foreign policy is not the foreign policy of Americans, it was hijacked a long time ago.

As much as I enjoy discussing politics, I really don't like getting into debates on this platform and try to avoid them. I'll let you have the last word if you wish. Take care.

Slow your roll, cowpoke. You're heading into dangerous territory.

Leonard. Duh.

The reason why America is lagging behind other countries in dealing with COVID-19 is because Americans, in general, values individualism over collectivism.

This seems to be the quote causing a lot of contention, and it reminded me of the Hofstede Indices we learned about in my international marketing class. It is true that the United States does rank fairly high for an Individualist culture. Compared to a some of the countries in Europe that have moved to a later phase in the re-opening process, you can see that Individualism in the United States is much higher.

#38-0

Despite the disruptions caused by such a ban, European officials involved in the talks said it was highly unlikely an exception would be made for the United States. They said that the criteria for creating the list of acceptable countries had been deliberately kept as scientific and nonpolitical as possible.

Including the United States now, the officials said, would represent a complete flouting of the bloc's reasoning. But they said the United States could be added later to the list, which will be revised every two weeks based on updated infection rates.

Go Science!

It's an unwritten law that it's my lunch pail. I've issued the challenge. If someone outworks me, they can get it.
Darryl Tapp

If we get included in the exclusion list up front, I don't see us getting added into it for a very long time based on how things are going here. We've made a complete mess of this, politicizing it from the start and giving equal airtime to anti-intellectual, anti-science drivel that has done nothing but make a bad situation many times worse than it should have been.

And what's more frustrating is, given how much the US relies on a global economy to keep us going, this could severely hurt us economically over the short term if the rest of the world effectively cuts us off because of how bad it is here. Especially when the entire push to open back up early was that the economy was more important than keeping COVID contained.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

Yeah, I wouldn't let people from the US in either, sure as shit wouldn't let people come to the US, and if they did, I wouldn't let them back

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

There is data showing that spikes in Arizona and Texas are occurring mostly in border counties.

Really, just saying.

Leonard. Duh.

I feel like there is some kind of point that you're trying to make here...

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

That's a new story about it and right now, news stories suck.
Real source, the study, the review the journal, the individual scientist or doc that said it.

I think I have a bit of a theme going.
Besides, I dropped my subscription to NYT, too expensive and when I researched too many of their stories, they were flat out misleading.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

The data are from scientists and doctors - public health officials. The Times is just consolidating state-level data and they have an excellent description of their caveats. Cross-reference it against Johns Hopkins data. If you can't trust that, I don't know what to tell you. These aren't data that get peer-reviewed.

That's a new story about it and right now

huh?

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Virginia will enter phase 3 on 1 July. I have to go look and see if this applies state wide.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Northam was asked that during Tuesday press conference and said "at this time" it would be ALL of VA but that he and staff would, as they did before with NOVA and City of Richmond), allow local governments to petition to hold off if they felt local numbers didn't support moving to phase 3.

From the 2018 VT-uva game-"This is when LEGENDS are made!"

It would be great if they could realistically break those Virginia infection numbers down from state to County level. It seems like Montgomery County has gone up recently.

More context from our local representative:

Yup, and the "I went to Myrtle Beach" crowd knew they had been exposed to positive cases while around strangers and still attended multiple public gatherings (read: parties) in Blacksburg while waiting for their own test results to come back. So far, at least 4 positives out of the Myrtle Beach trip spreading it to who knows how many others at those gatherings.

still attended multiple public gatherings (read: parties)

That's where they got it in the first place.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Yup. Really really dumb.

Thanks, I was occupied during the presser and haven't watched it yet.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Looks like NC Gov Cooper wants to take Northam's lockdown champion status. Here in NC there is no indication as to when we will be in phase 3.

I think Cooper had a bad gym experience in a previous life. There seems to be a vendetta.

Leonard. Duh.

I think Cooper had a bad gym experience in a previous life. There seems to be a vendetta.

Or, I dunno, maybe we need to see things actually improving before we progress to the next step like was the intention from the start.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

I just don't understand why gyms are lumped into phase 3. I'm closer to people at Great Clips than I am at the Y.

The Y could do phase 2 social distancing measures just as well as a nail/hair salon. Bars I kind of get. Handsy, buzzed social interaction could be construed as a last bastion. I just don't get the mortal peril of the gym. Close the locker room, sign up for space, move stuff outside that can be, and rotate sanitizing. Whatever. I'm never within 6 feet of strangers at the gym. It's easy to do. I have a very sensitive nose, and I don't want to smell people at the gym.

Leonard. Duh.

Putting people in a generally humid, confined space with increased breathing and sweat flying from the exercise being done probably isn't the best idea during a pandemic that is spread through the respiratory system.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

Does social distancing work or not?

Leonard. Duh.

Cases are spiking in areas that aren't taking social distancing measures seriously. You can't possibly be this fucking dense.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

He is asking a reasonable question in a confrontational way. If social distancing is effective at avoiding viral spread, why are establishments that are capable of doing business while enforcing social distancing not allowed to open? He isn't (I don't think) asking for gyms to open with no changes.

Get Angry, Bud!

Social distancing works because you are putting space between someone else's breathing out, and your breathing in. If you increase the amount of particulate coming out from, say, breathing heavily due to a work out, then you would need more distance to keep the same amount of exposure. Then, say you throw in an A/C unit that is designed for increased airflow for everyone's comfort. You would need to increase the distance not just from the source (other gym goers) but from the path of the airflow since the HVAC would essentially be bringing the germs to you.

How many people are breathing heavy at your great clips?

And yes, requiring gym users to wear masks should reduce the particulate from each person making it into the airflow, but I'll be the first to admit that wearing a mask makes it hard to breathe. I can only imagine trying to run on a treadmill with one on. If people are willing, more power to them, but I think expecting 100% compliance with mask rules a pipedream.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Gyms have always been recognized as being some of the dirtiest places in terms of germs.

Think about how many people touch a dumbell, a barbell, the handles on equipment, etc., all while heavily breathing all over the equipment.

How many pieces of equipment does a single gym-goer touch in a single workout?

What about two or three people working in on the same apparatus?

Why do gyms always have bottles of cleaner and paper towels, or sanitizing wipes around or suggest you bring a towel to wipe off equipment?

Do you think everyone in the gym is washing their hands between sets?

The virus can remain viable on surfaces anywhere from hours to days. Are people going to wait hours before they use that dumbell that they want to use after someone else used it?

Now, if everyone was working out in masks, it would severely reduve transmission, but everone in the gym would have to promise to never touch their faces the entire time that they work out. Got something in your eye? Tough.

It could work if you only had PTs working out single individuals in closed off areas with dedicated equipment, but most gyms don't have tons of duplicate equipment laying around.

"Sooner or later, if man is ever to be worthy of his destiny, we must fill our heart with tolerance."
-Stan Lee

"Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
-Ron Swanson

"11-0, bro"
-Hunter Carpenter (probably)

real answer from my wife who works at the main hospital in Charlotte: Gyms are more dangerous because you are expelling more air at a faster rate, which makes the 6ft rule dicey, plus the air circulation will move the germs around the building. Plus, wearing a mask while doing strenuous activity is not likely to happen.

Cases in NC are exploding. I was just there and couldn't believe the lack of masks and cavalier attitude. I went to a fish market and people were just standing around inside right next to each other chatting without masks. Not buying anything. Just there to socialize. Same thing in a bait shop. The only place I saw masks was at the grocery store, it it was maybe 10% of people. It was insanity. On our way back, we stopped for lunch just across the VA border and it was like a different world. Over 75% in masks and social distancing. What a difference a border makes.

It isnt that simple. I work over a pretty wide region and the difference in mask compliance can change between towns 10 miles apart.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Being in NY - this is what is so troubling. Masks have made a huge difference here, and continue to do so. Compliance is way over 90% - seeing someone without a mask in an indoor public setting is pretty rare. Our local area has made a significant impact in the number of active cases - being half what they were in early May. The efforts of the health department have gone from working to prevent the community spread, to working on tracking new cases and working on preventing those new ones from breeding more community spread. None of that works if people stop wearing masks - and that message has been constantly reinforced by local and state officials.

NY shut down hard - and for a long time, and had a very data driven measured re-opening. It is very concerning to all of us that other areas of the country haven't done the same, and that Covid-19 cases are surging again in other areas.

Worse is travelers could bring it back to areas where it was either stamped down quick or eliminated as Americans typically travel during the summer.

Lots of NY, NJ, VA and PA plates driving around the Outer Banks right now, when I've had to go to the store, or to Lowe's it used to be about a 50/50 split wearing masks....seems to be trending more on the no mask side here lately.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

Not going to comment on mask issue. I work from home and don't really get out much since all of this started. So I don't really have any observations to make there.

With regard to increasing cases, I do have some thoughts. It is quite possible that cases are increasing because people are going out more and starting to relax the social distancing. However, here is some other data worth considering when it comes to NC...

NC was always quite a bit further behind than most other states. We locked down very early and yet the virus still spread, there were still outbreaks, and ultimately we entered Phase 1 when things were just starting to heat up. NC is now testing at 3x the rate in June compared to May. New daily cases are at 3x in June compared to May. The %positive tests are flat at around 8-9% from early May to now. Yet the cumulative hospitalizations have only increased from around 450 to 850 in May to June. And the average daily deaths has stayed flat from Mid April to present, hovering between 15-20. More tests means more cases, but the daily deaths have yet to rise. Maybe they will soon, but I would've already expected to see that rise. The lack of increasing deaths suggests that a higher percentage of the new cases in the healthy population that is less vulnerable as they venture out and take more risk. Furthermore, hospitals are desparate for $$, they currently have the room, where previously they were worried about space, so they are open to admitting more patients. This is not me being a denier on anything, it is simply good news that the average daily death toll has not risen since mid-late April to now.

NC was always going to have a longer first wave compared to most places. The virus has yet to run its course and we always knew it would take time. As long as the death toll is not climbing exponentially, then that is good news in my opinion. Cannot look only at new cases, have to look at the totality of data, which includes most importantly, deaths.

Private bar near St Augustine where our band plays just delayed their opening til August because of the spike

Friend's father in law is now in quarantine. They went to a local restaurant/bar and the bartender and lead singer that night both tested positive for covid

New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut just mandated a 14 day quarantine to anyone returning from visiting Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, Utah, and Texas due to how rapidly cases are spiking in those states.

But yeah, lets push to reopen quicker.

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

Is that legal? Who enforces it?

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

Did anyone ask those questions when Florida imposed a quarantine on NY visitors (that they recently extended indefinitely)?

New York residents have gone through a lot of pain, closing for longer and re-opening later than other states, and its working. We are not interested in states that are cavalier about Corona virus bringing their lack of action back to our state in the form of new infections.

I would yes. Does it apply to truckers? Are they going to off load merchandise at the border? It is unrealistic.

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

the previous bans did not. Flight attendants and pilots are also exempted.

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Did anyone ask those questions when Florida imposed a quarantine on NY visitors

Yes, besides the governor of NY and Mayor of NYC, it was all over the news the pundits with spittle flying.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

Okay, random question. Granted I would be wearing a mask, but how crazy would it be to take the train for a 12.5 hour ride? One train, no switching. I really need to check on my 80 year old Mom.

A mask that does not actually filter offers you little protection, especially if you're in a relatively crowded space for a long time. If you've got an N95, you'll be better off. The other question is where the train stops to let people on. If you're going through areas with high incidence of COVID, that could be dangerous. That said, I think generally few people are traveling so you may not encounter that many people, relative to a normal trip.

Unfortunately, Alexandria, Washington, Baltimore, New Your, various spaces in Connecticut.

Basically get on the train in Roanoke and get off it Rhode Island.

I would fly, tbh. Delta is doing a great job. Felt super safe on a flight this past weekend to visit my parents-in-law.

Various airlines are implementing various protections. United and American allow you to switch flights if it gets over 70% full. Delta doesn't allow the back of the plane to exceed 60% capacity. Delta is also providing purell wipes as you board to wipe down your seat, screen, etc. They also sanitize between each flight. The in-flight service is only getting a bag that includes bottled water, cheeze its, cookies, and a purell wipe.

Just do your research on the airlines and pick the one that you feel comfortable with.

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Gov Cooper just announced face covering requirement for NC

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

I hate blanket orders.
I really do.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

The order is that people must wear face coverings when in public places, indoors or outdoors, where physical distancing of 6 feet from other people who aren't in the same household or residence isn't possible.

That line "where physical distancing...isn't possible" gives it some wiggle room, I believe.

Edit: Here's a link to the order..."where face coverings are required" starts on page 5. Each of the items listed states that they must be worn when people "are or may be within six feet of another person."

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PD5b7SLTbT8PnrX1Or4fSPvsJvNRCUgL/view

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

If people followed the recommendations, a blanket order wouldn't be necessary.

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

See my discussion above about me wearing it here at work.

It's a fallacy. Because it doesn't take into account anything other than "do it or you suck", is the reason why people push back.

See the exemptions on this list about restaurants while eating or drinking. Guess what, I'm betting dollars to donuts these cases were not spread while outside distancing, they were in meat bars. Where all the young and immortal people meat to get fluid bonded. Guess what, they got fluid bonded.

Blanket pronouncements suck.

This is going to be great for the ACC.

This seems to be the opposite of what we should be doing right now

King Alum of the House Hokie, the First of His Name, Khal of the Turkey Legs, The rightful Heir to the Big Board, the Unbanned, Breaker of Trolls and Father of Gritty

Now finish up them taters; I'm gonna go fondle my sweaters.

You know, I've heard that we can reduce illegal immigration to zero by ending all funding for border patrol and ICE...

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Testing is a double edged sword??? πŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈπŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈπŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈ

Twitter me

Yeah...more tests = more positive cases.

Is there any more context around this?

My hunch is that it's not as sinister as implied in the tweet. There are probably several hundred testing sites across these states and these 13 were likely chosen for a reason such as low utilization, multiple nearby testing sites, etc

from my understanding, it's the only 13 that set up by the Federal gov't. You're probably right its not that sinister, due to the fact that Fed. Gov't's amount of testing is already really low. It does, however, fall in line with the notion that there is a certain political figure that wants to decrease the amount of testing done in this country.

Virtually every news source has the story, so pick the source of your liking for more information.

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Yeah, before today the positive test rate for our state was around 5.5% overall. Yesterday's alone was almost 23%... that'll hurt. The silver lining is that the death rate seems to be declining a bit percentage-wise.

Were probably closing down our common areas (pools/fitness room) at work again next week if the trend continues.... Which would mean I'm probably going back to working from home....

Warning- Filter lost.

"Look at this... This is just spectacular.... These people are losing their minds"

STICK IT IN HAS RETURNED!!!

y'all stay safe

the annual conference I attend in Marco is still on for late July but they are asking us presenters to do so remotely, so I won't be down for that. when all the shit clears, maybe I can bring the boat down for a day

the death rate seems to be declining a bit percentage-wise

This also likely due to the most spread is currently happening in younger individuals. Will these young individuals end up passing it on to the demographics most at risk? We'll see. Hopefully, this spike is somewhat of a wake-up call for the nation at large and people begin respecting the virus. Idk.

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Hospitalizations and deaths are remaining constant...

I'm not sure why people still look at positive test results increasing and think it's the end of the world. Of course they are going up! Testing is readily available and most people have started living their lives normally again. The real concern should be hospitalization or death rates increasing as that is indicative of the actual problem: more sick patients than hospital beds. That's why there was such an emphasis on flattening the curve, remember?

And yes, I do understand that there will be a lag between positive tests, hospitalizations, and death. So maybe in a few weeks we will look at the increase in positive tests and see spikes in the other indicators thereafter. However, in Virginia, you cannot be tested unless you have symptoms. I'm assuming Florida is the same. More than likely, someone who is experiencing significant symptoms will have checked into a hospital within a week of symptom onset. Now let's look at that Florida data. It has been almost two weeks since positive tests started increasing exponentially. In that time, hospitalizations/deaths are at the same rate as they have been for two months. If the situation was truly getting worse, we would have seen a noticeable uptick in either of those indicators.

I'm not trying to rile people up, but these threads have seriously turned into an "ERMAHGERD look what XXX is doing, we're doomed" dick-measuring contest. It used to be nice to come here and read thoughtful discussion or look at aggregated data. Now this page is littered with fear mongers posting sensationalist articles or pedantic arguments about the history of masks. If y'all have any interest in keeping this from turning into a total echo chamber, it might be worth posting some positive, or maybe even objective news every now and then. Here, I'll start - I've had coronavirus and it did nothing to me other than give me diarrhea and fry my libido.

Here is some more fear or data, however the reader chooses to look at it:

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I choose to look at this as either unintentionally inconsistent or maybe even propaganda if I'm feeling cynical.

  • If I look at the data showed on the chart below, this tells me that there are 1,298 people currently in ICU beds and the max beds available is 2,207.
  • If I look at the table above, I see that the percentage of COVID patients in the ICU is about 14% or 182 people out of 1,298. Conversely, this also means that 1,1116 people are in the ICU without COVID.
  • If we assume non-COVID number stays constant, the number of COVID patients would need to increase to 1,091 people to exceed the 2,207 capacity. At that point, COVID patients would make up about 50% of the ICU (not 30% like that chart indicates). Additionally, this would represent an increase of close to 500% of ICU patients with COVID. For perspective, that number has increase 100% in the past month.

I'm not trying to discount the fact that they are about to exceed their surge capacity. That is definitely a problem. But unless I missed something, this data is factually incorrect and for all intents and purposes, propaganda - misleading the average person who doesn't have the inquisitive nature or free time to run the numbers themselves.

The first graph is total bed occupancy, not ICU bed occupancy. We would need to know how many ICU beds and total beds (or percentage thereof) to truly make an accurate calculation.

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So, while I agree with your first paragraph, I think you are not realizing that some states (arizona) are about to max out their ICU bed, and un-flatten the curve.

Also, I know in GA you don't need to show symptoms to get tested, your assumption about Florida may not be valid.

Twitter me

Yeah I get that. My issue is more the 'doom and gloom' theme of the original post and how that embodies this thread in general.

"ugh. nothing about these graphs is good".

That's just incorrect. Hospitalizations are staying constant (good) and deaths are staying constant (good). Posting contextually incorrect commentary like that detracts from the value of this thread.

And your comment about getting tested without symptoms actually supports the argument I am making. If people can get tested despite having no symptoms, then that should diminish the 'value' of a positive test. Maybe Virginia's positive tests would be skyrocketing too if everyone was allowed to go get tested?

And your comment about getting tested without symptoms actually supports the argument I am making. If people can get tested despite having no symptoms, then that should diminish the 'value' of a positive test. Maybe Virginia's positive tests would be skyrocketing too if everyone was allowed to go get tested?

Hmmm... this is getting close to suggesting less testing. There is great value in knowing positive individuals without symptoms (or paucisymptomatic).

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Just stop.

This is a textbook straw man fallacy and frankly, you should be embarrassed.

Apologies. I guess I misunderstood what you meant by

If people can get tested despite having no symptoms, then that should diminish the 'value' of a positive test.

in context with your previous comment

these threads have seriously turned into an "ERMAHGERD look what XXX is doing, we're doomed" dick-measuring contest.

To me, that signified that you were of the opinion that we are over testing and that knowing this data over valued. I still don't know what you mean by "diminished value." If you want to explain, please do.

And I haven't ever referred to a coronavirus thread as a dick-measuring contest. So, no, I'm not embarrassed. Not one iota.

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You can be tested without symptoms in Virginia.

Wait, what?

And what happens when all these increased positive cases with low risk factors interact with people who have higher risk factors? That's the concern. Not necessarily for yourself, but for your fellow human beings.

There's always a lighthouse. There's always a man. There's always a city.

This is where facemasks, hand washing, and things like dedicated senior hours at a grocery store come into play.

  • Individuals at risk must take extreme precautions (sheltering in place except to grocery shop and whatnot)
  • 'Healthy' individuals should take simple precautions (wearing a mask indoors, washing hands, etc)
  • Grocery Stores, pharmacies, etc. can have special 'senior only' hours in the morning (so they have time to sanitize everything that morning/prior night
  • Government has to place other restrictions - Restaurants/bars can only operate outdoors with tables at a social distance. No large gatherings like music festivals or sporting events. Etc.

These are reasonable 'restrictions' that don't really restrict the lives of health people that much.

Twitter me

I do hope that sometime soon we get to a place where we can have normal discourse regarding this damn disease without it devolving into "you don't care about your fellow human beings".

"If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"

It is impossible to answer this question without seeming callous. The reality is that the only way to truly make sure that this isn't happening is to quarantine again, which just isn't logical anymore.

If you want my brutally honest answer: Low-risk people out socializing need to be aware of the risk they poise. At-risk people need to look out for themselves. It works both ways. Most people frequenting the bar scene assume that they have it and know they need to avoid those that might be at-risk. At-risk folks need to be aware of the current social climate and lay low until this all blows over.

I especially like the '.com' address in the bottom left for a government backed card.
Just kidding, the ADA didn't like it either.
I'm not saying there aren't legitimate people who need exceptions, but I absolutely picture this disingenuous person when reading about people using this excuse to push back against masks.