And Then There Were Three: 2021 Coastal Division Statistical Analysis

After yet another week in the books, two more teams have officially been eliminated: UNC, by losing to Pitt, and Miami, by losing to Florida State, both in excruciating fashion. The good news: that leaves us with only 3 teams left in Coastal contention: Pitt, UVA, and your Virginia Tech Hokies. The bad news: the Hokies have less than a roughly 1% chance of pulling it off. (Note: these odds are based on last week's SP+ rankings. I will update them tomorrow after this week's are released. these odds have been updated with this week's SP+ rankings.)

At this point, there are only 4 meaningful games remaining in the Coastal Division race:

- UVA @ Pitt
- VT @ Miami
- Pitt @ Syracuse
- VT @ UVA

This means there are 16 possible outcomes for the Coastal Division from this point on. Those are:

These are the conditions for each of the 3 contenders to win the Coastal:
Pitt:
- Beat UVA, or
- Beat Syracuse, and VT beats UVA

UVA:
- Beat Pitt and VT, or
- Beat Pitt, Miami beats VT, Syracuse beats Pitt

VT:
- Beat Miami and UVA, UVA beats Pitt, Syracuse beats Pitt

I know, I know, we have a chance! But that chance relies on a team that just lost 41-3 to Louisville being able to beat the current leader in the Coastal division standings. Not to mention the fact that we have to somehow play two more games without shooting ourselves in the foot. So... not great.

Anyway, here are the updated charts: