OT: MLB Offseason 2022-23

There have been some exciting happenings in the MLB offseason so far and still a lot of deals to be made. Figured we should have a place to discuss for anyone interested!

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Seeing Trea in a Phillies uniform is gonna hurt as a Nats fan. Glad DeGrom is out of the NL East but facing Verlander will be tough.

I'm convinced Philly is just striking back for Washington grabbing Jayson Werth years ago

You know what, it doesn't hurt 😎

Phils probably just need another starter and some bullpen arms and they're ready for another run next year. As for the Turner and Harper contracts, the more I think about it the less I care about the money in the later years. The way salaries have been growing the last decade or so, those probably won't look that bad at all when those last few years roll around. I mean you're already talking about $40m per year pitchers in Scherzer and Verlander, so $25m-$27m for those two already doesn't look that bad.

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I agree on the salary perspective. If they are playing anywhere close to their current production then their salaries are going to look like a bargain in favor of the Phillies.

Didn't even take that long for these contracts to look cheap.

Judge gets 9 years $40m a year to stay with the Yankees

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my jaw dropped. that's nuts man. can't even fathom.

"Now Miami wants to talk about it." *Cue Enter Sandman*

Harper is to be $242M until 2031. Judge is to be paid $360M until 2031.

You can argue that Judge is a better player and worth more than Harper, but you can't argue that he's worth $118M more over the next 9 years. Definitely not a buyers market in 2022 like when Harper signed 4 years ago.

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There's also a lot of difference in production right now. What Harper got when he got it, he was at the top of his game and helped set the bar. Judge just did the same thing, and he could not have picked a better time for himself to have the year he just had.

Harper got when he got it, he was at the top of his game

Harper's Nationals career was somewhat enigmatic. His best year, by far, was 2015 (9.7 WAR, wins MVP). After that banner yea, his WAR for each of the following years was: 1.5, 4.8, and 1.8. So, he was definitely an up and down player with his contract year actually being pretty average. He also didn't didn't have good numbers in any postseason.

He has been better as a Philly, or at least more consistent when healthy. In the two seasons he was healthy, his WAR has been 4.4 and 5.9 and his WAR numbers for the other two seasons were pretty good for the number of games he played: 2.0 in 58 games and 2.5 in 99 games. So, Phillies didn't get that 2015 Harper, but they got an overall better Harper, including the 5.9 WAR MVP season in 2021 and an excellent postseason in 2022.

When Harper signed, he did set the bar (13 years, $330M), but it was quickly passed later that offseason by Trout's contract extension (10 years, $360M). So, he had the highest overall contract for only a few weeks.

I think Philly got Harper for a fair value because AAV is low and he has been playing more consistent. Harper has been hit with the injury bug a decent amount and I think that his history suggests he'll likely have a lot more injuries over the next 10 years that devalues his contract, especially towards the latter years. He's already missing half of 2023 after missing 1/3 of the season last year. However, if has one or two more MVP seasons or gets a WS championship, then I think his value has been earned, whether or not he finishes out his contract.

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The other thing to note. Since the AAV is lower, the back end of the contract is way less likely to be a problem. Already had him for 4 seasons before age 30, and as the tax threshold increases/inflation/etc etc, that 23m per looks a lot more palatable

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

You do have to hope that his propensity for injury doesn't to begin to affect his power or speed as his injuries are already affecting his ability to play in the field. It'll be interesting to see whether he'll play any outfield in 2023. There are no guarantees on getting that throwing arm back with TJ surgery.

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I mean lets be realistic for a second, even if he is just the DH for the Phillies for the remainder of that contract, its still a good value for the Phils.

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We'd have to agree to disagree there. I don't think there is a GM that would suggest that 10 years of $25M AAV for a DH is of value.

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Lol when Judge is getting $40m a year who gives a shit.

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I can assure you that at this time, literally no Phillie fan is upset about Harper's contract.

He is one of those guys that you hate when he plays against you, and absolutely love when he has your pinstripes on. I never in a million years would have ever thought "that guy is Philadelphia", and now I can't picture him anywhere else.

The Phillies starting middle infield ( Segura & Gregorious) last season cost more than their starting middle infield (Stott & Turner) to start next season.

Middleton wants that trophy, and his money is the only one that matters.

I wouldn't trade the 2019 championship for anything but it sure does hurt to see all of the Nats star players go elsewhere. Except for Strasburg but we all know how that turned out.

The Nats facing anybody will be tough. 2023 will be just as bad and likely worse for the Nats. With the sale of the team on-going, Rizzo isn't allowed to spend enough to put together a competitive team.

The super terrible TV deal that Angelos and the MLB forced upon the Nats when they moved to DC is killing the ability of the team to be freely sold at its market value. Until that's resolved or somehow compensated for, I dont think the deal gets done. Sucks for the fans, but I guess the Nats won't be good until a bulk of their young talent makes it to the league, which will be by 2025 or 2026.

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The Turner deal also sets the stage for what will happen with Correa. Lots of teams with a need there, and at least from the forums I pay attention to there is extreme interest from Minnesota trying to sign him to a 10 year deal.

I think this also just jacked up the price for Dansby Swason, and the Braves aren't going to overpay him. My 12YO is going to be super mad since he is her favorite player by a mile.

Yeah, rumors are that the Braves turned down a $140M counter from Swanson's people. Don't know the term, but if it was for 6 years, that's a reasonable $23.3M AAV. At least we were able to get something similar when we let Freeman go, but I don't know what we're going to do at SS if Dansbae signs elsewhere. Grissom isn't a ML-quality SS (yet, if ever).

Still have holes at SS and LF. Not sure what AA is going to do there, but he's a lot smarter than I am, so I'm not worrying (a lot).

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

In AA I trust. I don't want to overpay for Swanson considering even his career year was super-streaky.

My biggest concern is that without the shift next year a great defensive SS (like Dansby) is going to be even more valuable.

My guess it was $140m for less yrs maybe 5. They do have Arcia who is a decent not great SS mainly his bat needs work. I am more worried about the offensive blackhole they have in left field currently. I would love for them to get Bryan Renyolds to put in left.

We're not getting Bryan Reynolds, unless you consider trading something like Contreras, Grissom, one of the potential 5th starter pitchers, and a throw in. We just don't have the organizational depth to pull off that kind of trade without sacrificing ML talent.

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If they wanted to I think they could use Elder, Muller, or Anderson with Grissom as trade candidates. I dont think they would trade Contreras leaving Travis and a defensive only catcher in Pina. Who knows though, but they need to make some more moves.

The Cubs reek of mediocrity and the team's strategy seems to be getting their name attached to big name free agents and then doing nothing. They're going all in on a farm system that is maybe above average. We're the "loveable losers" again, but one of, if not the most expensive teams to go watch. Don't even get me started on the disaster that is marquee network. David Ross deserves a better team. I have no idea if he is a good manager or not, but he's going to take the heat for whatever the front office has been cooking up. Theo Epstein knew exactly what he was doing getting away from this organization when he did.

I don't think many here will care, but I had to let that out somewhere. Hopefully this will age poorly. I doubt it. Time to pull out the 2016 world series blu-ray set again.

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I wouldn't be shocked if Dansbae Swanson signs with the Cubs, as the woman he's marrying (Mallory Pugh) plays for the Chicago Red Stars of the NWSL.


If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

I'm not saying I wouldn't be happy to have Swanson, I would. He'd also be an upgrade, but considering the middle infield is one of the deeper spots in the roster I wouldn't fully understand this move. It really just seems to fit the narrative of the FO attach the organization to a big name player just that they can say that they tried. Also, kinda sad that you said that a week ago and it's still the same story going on.

Don't worry though, the Cubs signed an old reliever that'll likely put up decent numbers so they can flip him at the deadline for a bag of balls and cash considerations.

If I sound a bit short, please know my frustration is directed purely at the Cubs FO, you're cool.

"Hokie religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster at your side, kid." Han Solo

Also, kinda sad that you said that a week ago and it's still the same story going on.

To be fair, though, they did just get married over the weekend and are, I would assume, on their honeymoon. I'd hope he's not giving a lot of thought this week to where he'll be playing next year.

If I sound a bit short, please know my frustration is directed purely at the Cubs FO

All good, my Cubbie friend!

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Josh Bell to the Guardians for 2 years and $33 million with an opt out after the first year.

Damn you Arson....LMBO

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Sources saying the Yanks re-signed Judge for $360/9yr

Phillies not messing around this off-season. A day after signing Turner, they add Walker to the rotation, and Strahm to the bullpen.

Harper will be out a couple months, but that Phillies lineup is scary no matter what. Castellanos will start to hit eventually.

"... as there's a drive into deep left field by Castellanos and that'll be a home run."

Cardinals land Willson Contreras for $87.5mil/5 years! Absolutely love the pick up. (Relatively) small price to pay for a good addition to the batting order. Great competitor. Chaps the asses of our rivals. Doesn't get better than that!

I want the Lerners to sell the Nats so badly.

Amateur superstar and idiot extraordinaire.

They're trying. Blame MLB and Angelos for their BS MASN deal. The sale would have happened already but for that reason.

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Padres got their (*third choice*) man! Bogaerts 11 yrs/$280M

Didn't see Bogaerts signing a contract that big. Hot Stove season getting crazy this year.

Gonna make it harder to resign Swanson, too. =^/

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It blows the mind that the Pads have Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Juice Tatis Jr, and now Boegarts

As a life-long, die-hard Red Sox fan, this hurts. Love Bogey, a class act who has proved he can play in one of the most demanding markets in baseball. But, the length of that contract is insane.

I'm finding it shocking that Turner and Bogarts are separated by $1.8m per year over the life of those 11yr contracts. That makes the Turner deal already look like a bit of a bargain

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Pirates get first and Nats second in the MLB draft. Leave it to the Nats to start tanking the one year that the worst record isn't guaranteed the first pick.

The Mets have now blown past the "Steve Cohen tier" of the luxury tax, named after the owner himself lol. I wonder when they'll finally stop. There's been some real crazy spending this winter.

The Mets are spending a ton of money to still be the Mets.

Braves and Phillies are better than them right now.

Braves pull off a three team deal to get Murphy from the A's.

Braves get: C Sean Murphy
Brewers get: C William Contreras, RHP Justin Yeager, RHP Joel Payamps
A's get: LHP Kyle Muller, UT Esteury Ruiz, RHP Freddy Tarnok, RHP Royber Salinas, C Manny Pina

Braves definitely upgrade their backstops. Murphy, while similar to Contreras at the plate, will end up being a slight upgrade as a hitter, due to the move to a friendlier ballpark (he hit more than .100 higher OPS on the road last year). Where the Braves truly get better is defensively. He's top 5 at throwing out baserunners and manages pitching staffs well. This also allows TdA to move to the backup catching role and spend some more time at DH, which at 35/36 can extend his career. Braves now have one of the best pair of catchers in the majors. A clear upgrade.

Milwaukee also wins in this deal, picking up a solid-hitting catcher (or DH), while giving up only Ruiz, who was the third best player in the Hader deal.

A's are being widely panned on their return, getting a projected 3rd/4th starter in Muller, a couple of relivers in Tarnok and Salinas, a utility player in Ruiz, and a veteran catcher to teach Langeliers how to be a major league catcher. Underwhelming return for one of the best catchers in the game.

Solid trade by AA. Still waiting to see what he'll do at SS and LF, but I'm sure he has his plans. In AA we trust!

If you're not sure if my comment warrants a "/s", it probably does.

Rodon to the Yanks 6/162 with Heyman reporting a full no trade clause

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Bada-bah-bah-bah I'm lovin it. Solid starting rotation in the Bronx.

very solid -- cole, rodon, cortes, severino, montas with clarke schmidt and domingo german as the spot starters/long relief guys. wouldn't be surprised to see schmidt be used in a trade to improve LF

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

If we can get a defense first/average to good bat LF, then I think we're good to go. Wish we could move Hicks and Donaldson's contract to open up some room for the young kids to play (Cabrera, Volpe, Peraza).

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Now you should at least be able to lose 4-1 to the Astros in the ALCS /s

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Contracts line this off-season is why I still think Kyler Murray should've considered baseball a bit more.

Though he still ended up making about the same and arguably quicker, so kudos to him.

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Absolutely quicker. He's already gotten 60m after just 4 years and has a minimum of 43m more coming based on his contract. If he ever reworks his deal or signs another extension, it'll almost certainly have been the right decision


"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Dansby to the Cubs. Reporting $177m/7yrs.

He's a good player, no doubt about it. But at what point does "baseball is dead" come in? I understand and agree that the market dictates what guys "should" be paid...but for what is arguably third fiddle behind the NFL and NBA in the sporting eyes of the country, how can all these franchises afford these insane contracts? Again, understand the teams and league are making billions collectively. But just fascinated by the man behind the curtain making it work.

All that to say....wish the Nats would've offered $178m/7yrs. Fml.

Amateur superstar and idiot extraordinaire.

MLB is third fiddle, but they're still raking in the money. These types of contracts are also very much the exception. MLB's pre-free agency contract situation also helps teams keep payrolls lower. The Cubs, for example, only have 8 post-arbitration players on the roster, so most of the rest of the team's players aren't making that much money. You probably know that, but the main thing is that the money is there for the teams to spend. If it wasn't they wouldn't. And some teams don't even though it is.

The fact that baseball players get paid what they do just proves that they have the best union in sports and NFL/NBA player unions are far behind because the money is clearly there

It's because baseball teams were the first to drive RSNs for big time broadcasting rights, then leveraging sports fans to get cable companies to "overpay" for the content, which is often packaged and bundled with other channels so there are a ton of people who are paying for the channel but not watching it.

It's a decidedly different model for broadcasting than NFL/NBA, although some notable NBA teams have had their home games on RSN for a long time (Knicks on MSG, Nets on YES).

Aside from that, MLB pay scale/CBA is structured so that players make a fraction of their worth and then hope to cash in once, maybe twice, in free agency.

MLB rosters are way smaller than NFL as well, so the pie is split fewer ways

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

Plus it's 162 days of content vs 82 for NHL/NBA, and 17 for the NFL. Adds up eventually.

I feel like people forget this aspect and only see halfway empty baseball stadiums when they watch highlights. Some teams receive well over 3 million people in attendance over the course of a season.

The biggest NFL stadium is 82,500 seats which only equates to 660,000 total people for 8 games.

Meaning baseball can bring in 5x the attendance than what NFL does. Then I feel like baseball is much more friendly towards the people that want to sneak out between innings for food and beer.

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Baseball is more international than NFL and NBA too. Greater percentage of players from abroad, especially Japan, Korea, and across the Americas/Caribbean. I don't know how that translates to dollars or how much that impacts total revenue, but I imagine it's not insignificant and would be greater than the other two.

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Sad to see Dansbae go, but I figured it would pan out that way. He got his ring with the Braves and I'll always appreciate him for his time in Atlanta. Makes sense to get the money that AA would never offer him and be in the same city as his newlywed.

I guess one World Series ring was enough for him.

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Correa with a u-turn to the mets after an issue popped up in his medical with the giants

"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

I think it was an "issue" with his medical being he is getting the same money on 1 less year in NY.

edit: Guess I was wrong on the dollary-doos part, but damn that's wild.

Mets could be interesting this year. I'm not sure I like their 2 best pitchers being on retirement's doorstep and they certainly have a heck of a lot of fiery personalities, which, when combined with the NY market and knowing the NL East is gonna be a pressure cooker this year....

It could either go well and they win it all or it implodes is absolute spectacular fashion.

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It could either go well and they win it all or it implodes is absolute spectacular fashion.

I basically said the same on Twitter. I'm really hoping for the latter.

They are still the Mets.

Cohen is gonna pay a $100M luxury tax bill to watch his team choke again like they always do.

They've definitely moved up my hate meter though. They are not at Cowboys level yet, but that's because they have much less success. And even that's relative, the last time the Cowboys were good I was 13. I turned 40 a couple months ago.

And of course he fails the physical with the Mets... Lol

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I'd really like to know what these docs are seeing. This is a 9(?) year old injury that is making a lot of headlines, and the guy has demonstrated his ability to perform on the field. That said, as a Twins fan, I was happy we got out of the bidding war but I'm pretty excited that we're going to get Correa at a relative discount, and apparently the contract has vesting language in it to push it back near the Twins' initial offer during the off-season.

I think the biggest issue both the Giants and Mets had with things was due to the length of the contracts offered. Sure, his leg is holding up well now. But if he signs a deal for more than 10 years, who knows how he'll be for the second half of that deal.

This is what I was thinking as well. The new proposed deal is (only) for 6 years, so Correa should still be extremely healthy when this contract wraps-up and should avoid any major DL stints. Now that I've type it out, he's going to pull a Buxton in the first week and spent >81 games on the DL this year.

I've wondered the same thing. Correa has had some injury history, but there's been plenty of money thrown around the past few years to players with a similar amount of missed games. Playing a full season is not that common, it's not like there's a lot of Cal Ripkens, or even Craig Biggios, these days.

If Jeremey Pena hadn't developed so well this year, I'm pretty sure the Astros would have been happy to have Correa come back to Houston. He's a really good all-around player, and he's still only 28.

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As long as Correa isn't gonna be in the NL East I'm good. Honestly quite something that he has now failed physicals with two teams though

From what I have read, which isn't much, it isn't that he failed a physical but it has more to do with the long-term viability of his ankle. SF & NY were both offering contract lengths that would have had Correa retiring, and in both cases the doctors that did the evaluation were not convinced his ankle was going to hold-up to see the contract through. With both teams offering guaranteed money for an extended period, it made it a very risky financial move. The Twins took advantage of that, and now Correa is signing a contract that is about half the length, has vesting options for the last 2 years (I think), and has variable annual salary which I presume is to incentivize Correa to stay for the big production years, and gradually brings the annual payout down to account for the long-term risk. Very smart move financial from the Twins, and with him and Buxton locked-in for a while this allows them to put attention in a few other areas that could have them seriously competing in the next year or two, and for several years after.

I agree it's a savvy move by the Twins. And I'm more than happy that the Phillies don't have to see him 19 times a year. The NL East is going to be a fun watch next season with the moves the Phil's, Mets, and Braves made.

man, that whole thing went through some interesting phases. Both SF and NYM fans have to feel pretty rough about this outcome

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... but as a Twins fan, this feels pretty awesome. I can't remember the last time I felt this good about a free agent signing. Cruz was close, but not like this.

Nelson Cruz reportedly signing with the Padres on a 1-year, $1M deal.