ESPN updated its Football Power Index (FPI) for the 2018 season. The Hokies are projected to go 8.0-4.2. The system projects Virginia Tech with a 0.1% chance to go undefeated and 4.1% chance to win the ACC. FPI projects Virginia Tech to lose to at Florida State, against Notre Dame and Miami.
| Date | Opponent | Virginia Tech FPI Win Probability | Opponent FPI (Rank) | FPI Differential (11.6 - OFPI ) | Preseason Aggregate Rank | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2018 | at Florida State (Monday) | 36.50% | 13.1 (18) | -1.5 | No. 18 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 9/8/2018 | William & Mary | 99.00% | × | × | × | Blacksburg, VA |
| 9/15/2018 | East Carolina | 97.30% | -15.1 (116) | 26.7 | × | Blacksburg, VA |
| 9/22/2018 | at Old Dominion | 94.20% | -14.1 (112) | 25.7 | × | Norfolk, VA |
| 9/29/2018 | at Duke | 51.00% | 8.6 (30) | 3 | × | Durham, NC |
| 10/6/2018 | Notre Dame | 27.80% | 22.3 (5) | -10.7 | No. 16 | Blacksburg, VA |
| 10/13/2018 | at North Carolina | 57.50% | 4.9 (46) | 6.7 | × | Chapel Hill, NC |
| 10/20/2018 | BYE | × | × | × | × | × |
| 10/25/2018 | Georgia Tech (Thursday) | 60.70% | 10.8 (24) | 0.8 | × | Blacksburg, VA |
| 11/3/2018 | Boston College | 69.00% | 8.2 (34) | 3.4 | × | Blacksburg, VA |
| 11/10/2018 | at Pittsburgh | 69.10% | 2.1 (57) | 9.5 | × | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 11/17/2018 | Miami | 45.90% | 16.2 (14) | -4.6 | No. 8 | Blacksburg, VA |
| 11/23/2018 | Virginia (Friday) | 89.10% | -3.2 (74) | 14.8 | × | Blacksburg, VA |
| 12/1/2018 | ACC Championship Game | × | × | × | × | Charlotte, NC |
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Comments
The fact that our chances of beating UVA are just 5% lower than beating ODU just made my entire week.
Lots of 69 on there.
Is this some of the 'new' math? How does 3 listed losses transform in to a projected loss total of 4.2? How do partial losses get calculated?
I would assume because there is not a predicted 100% win for each of the wins. So while on an individual basis we have 3 losses, there is a greater chance of going 4 losses.
Someone smarter than me please chime in.
Don't know FPI specifically, but typically if you have 50% chance of winning, you get .5 wins. That way the prediction isn't totally thrown off by having a run of close games where you are barely favored.
Add up all the percentage of wins and add up all the percentages of losses. Total will equal 12 (with some potential rounding error).
So,
add .365 + .990 + .973 + .942 ... for wins
add . 635 + .010 + 0.27 + .058 ... for losses
Wins + losses = 12
***Got beat to the comment. Yadda yadda, drink, yadda yadda
So the projection has us going 8-4, but only losing 3 games... So they're projecting a loss in our Bowl game w/ no opponent? Am I reading this incorrectly or is the math just not adding up?
The difference is in being favored vs projecting wins. You can be favored in a game, but if you're win percentage is 60%, you would only count that as .6 wins. A good example is if we had 4 games of 51% win probability, we would be favored in all 4 games, but you would only expect to win 2 of those.
Yep, makes a lot more sense now. Thank you!
Immediate Reaction:
Agreed with all of the above. I thought 27% against ND was laughable but not all that surprising.
I didn't realize we only play back-to-back road games once. And those two road games will hardly be road games. More like a 50/50 split between us and the home crowd. We will probably outnumber Duke fans at Wallace Wade as usual. And we will have a ton of people at ODU but ODU typically has good attendance numbers and this will arguably be their biggest game in program history, so I expect their fans to show up. We probably won't outnumber them but we might come close.
Having 4 of the last 5 games in Lane is huge. This schedule is nice.
Awfully low ain't it?
That's a typo. It's actually 891.0%.
Let's revisit this percentage once a reliable weather forecast comes out the week of the game.
ill get tinkerin on the weather control device
Enter councilmember Trayon White joke here.
Had to do some digging to get the reference.
But I found it.
I always thought a good Bond villain would be some guy off the coast of Africa that found a way to shoot little puffs of air across the Atlantic that grew into hurricanes. Now I know it's just Eshiben.
Are we sure this isn't our estimated margin of victory over UNC?
I love that our chance of winning the Miami game is higher than ND and FSU, though Miami's preseason aggregate is higher.
That being said, I still REALLY, REALLY wanna beat ND. Do we have the personnel to pull that off?
I guess that depends. I don't remember if we have a better record with Gameday Night games or without Gameday being there for a night game, because we're rolling into that game 5-0.
pitt percentage too high. Should have lost last year and they look to be significantly improved and VT to be about same
If by significantly improved, you mean they can pick up 1.5 yards on 4 plays, then maybe. Until proven otherwise, I'll just leave this here.
this makes me so happy. I especially like the 4th down where the whole left side of the o-line is in the end zone wondering where their RB went
Greatest. Gif. Ever.
I think this is the first year in a long time that I have absolutely no idea what to expect from this team. A returning (probably) decent QB, young talent at all the play making positions, and a decent offensive line on offense. On defense...
I'm just going to hope that in the next 3-4 years we are competing at the national level, and I think we will, but I'm not sure it's this year we make a leap in that direction. I think 2019 is when people start taking notice.
I wouldn't even qualify the returning QB part until it is shown that one of the other QBs is a legitimate threat to take over the starting job.
That's fair. My point was hopefully as good if not better then last year. JJ or whoever. I like to think regardless of the the starter, they will be an upgrade
I am highly offended that W&M is statistically lower than UVdoucheA.
I am worried that we play W&M only 5 days after FSU. FSU is a night game and there is travel back. So only 4 days to prepare. Should easily win but that is a tough turnaround. May not beat the spread.
Dude, I went there; you're fine. :)
I was at Lane in 1978 when it took a long, miracle, last second TD pass to beat William & Mary. Actually, it's a bit of a miracle I even remembered that pass & catch through the Southern Comfort and other 'drugs of choice' back in the day.
Wow. 1978....
Don't get Hokierick and his generation started again.
I resemble that remark!
Believe it was either the 1984 or 1985 game (during my student years) when VT knocked TEN Tribe players out on the field for a full ten count including their #1 quarter back and #1 and #2 receivers. They didn't play us again until 2007!
51% at duke?? Seems kinda low doesn't it?
It's the Coach K bump.
I thought they were referencing basketball...