After yet another week in the books, two more teams have officially been eliminated: UNC, by losing to Pitt, and Miami, by losing to Florida State, both in excruciating fashion. The good news: that leaves us with only 3 teams left in Coastal contention: Pitt, UVA, and your Virginia Tech Hokies. The bad news: the Hokies have less than a roughly 1% chance of pulling it off. (Note: these odds are based on last week's SP+ rankings. I will update them tomorrow after this week's are released. these odds have been updated with this week's SP+ rankings.)
| Team | Odds | # Outcomes |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh | 10 | 82.91% |
| Virginia | 5 | 15.97% |
| Virginia Tech | 1 | 1.12% |
At this point, there are only 4 meaningful games remaining in the Coastal Division race:
- UVA @ Pitt
- VT @ Miami
- Pitt @ Syracuse
- VT @ UVA
This means there are 16 possible outcomes for the Coastal Division from this point on. Those are:
| UVA @ Pitt | VT @ Miami | Pitt @ Syracuse | VT @ UVA | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | VT | Pitt | VT | Pitt |
| UVA | VT | Pitt | UVA | UVA |
| UVA | VT | Syracuse | VT | VT |
| UVA | VT | Syracuse | UVA | UVA |
| UVA | Miami | Pitt | VT | Pitt |
| UVA | Miami | Pitt | UVA | UVA |
| UVA | Miami | Syracuse | VT | UVA |
| UVA | Miami | Syracuse | UVA | UVA |
| Pitt | VT | Pitt | VT | Pitt |
| Pitt | VT | Pitt | UVA | Pitt |
| Pitt | VT | Syracuse | VT | Pitt |
| Pitt | VT | Syracuse | UVA | Pitt |
| Pitt | Miami | Pitt | VT | Pitt |
| Pitt | Miami | Pitt | UVA | Pitt |
| Pitt | Miami | Syracuse | VT | Pitt |
| Pitt | Miami | Syracuse | UVA | Pitt |
These are the conditions for each of the 3 contenders to win the Coastal:
Pitt:
- Beat UVA, or
- Beat Syracuse, and VT beats UVA
UVA:
- Beat Pitt and VT, or
- Beat Pitt, Miami beats VT, Syracuse beats Pitt
VT:
- Beat Miami and UVA, UVA beats Pitt, Syracuse beats Pitt
I know, I know, we have a chance! But that chance relies on a team that just lost 41-3 to Louisville being able to beat the current leader in the Coastal division standings. Not to mention the fact that we have to somehow play two more games without shooting ourselves in the foot. So... not great.
Anyway, here are the updated charts:
Comments
Unless UVA's QB1 comes back we can go ahead and crown Pitt. Even with two weeks notice, that offense was woeful tonight.
Yeah, Pitt would have to absolutely Pitt the bed to lose to UVA next week without Armstrong. They are arguably the second worst team in the conference (lol Duke) without him.
how much you want to bet he comes back against us
So you're telling me there's a chance...
On the Atlantic side, if Clemson beats Wake and NCSU wins out... Who wins that division with a 3-team tie at 6-2?
Wake forest only has a none conference lose right now. Wake would have to lose to BC also.
That Wake UNC game was a nonconference game. Wake just has to beat BC.
The Wheel of Destiny has answers.
I cannot deal with any situation where Clemson somehow wins the Atlantic this year. Desperately need Wake and NC State not to screw this up.
I think Wake is clearly in the driver's seat with that win last night. They literally can drop the Clemson game and still clinch by beating BC. Clemson needs the most help, as they need to beat Wake, have Wake lose to BC, and have NC State drop one more to either Cuse or UNC. Even if Wake loses out, as long as NC State doesn't lose another Clemson loses the three way tie.
I forgot last night that the UNC-Wake game didn't count as ACC. If it did that could have set up the most ridiculous three-way tie opportunity ever.
I know they are the longest shot, but I will never doubt Clemson's ability to have everything go their way, outside of their control or not.
I liked the old version of Clemsoning better.
I have to cheer for UVA and Syracuse to win. Then if we lose to UVA they get the coastal.
Some things are unreasonable asks. Like rooting for UVa.
That's why I am rooting for scandal at Pitt to make them inelligible.
Like having one of Pickett's mystery wives come forward to reveal he's actually 28 years old and has been playing college ball under different pseudonyms for 10 years? Something like that would work for me.
I was thinking like selling books back or something, but that works.
So I'm compartmentalizing the way I look at that game:
I don't have to root for LOLUVA to win, I just have to root for Pitt to lose.
So long as I can view it through the lens of only what happens to Pitt, I can be happy with the outcome if they lose. Having said that, I can also decide to be happy with LOLUVA losing.
But just for the sake of hilarity, how awesome would it be if all the remaining games go our way, we end up winning the Coastal, go to the ACCCG and somehow beat, I dunno, Wake Forest, and end the season with an 8-5 record, an ACC Championship, and fire our coach anyway.
A horse can dream
Bo Pelini got fired for being an asshat, but it's the closest Nebraska came to winning a conference title in decades. So it's not outside the realm of possibility to fire a coach under conference championship circumstances.
Side note about Pelini, the recording that got him in trouble, he clearly stated: let's see what they can do when I'm gone. Boy was that dead nuts.
A) Bo was right
B) FSU beat us to win the ACC when they we like 8-4.
Can I say that this has been my ultimate dream all season? A new coach and an ACC title?
And somehow it's mid-November and both are still on the table.
One chance?
Fly away, Thanos can't fly.
Give it to Captain Marvel, she can handle the power...
If you guys want to see something really crazy, go take a peek at the SEC West.
On the one hand, Alabama can clinch the division by just winning one game.
But...if Alabama loses out, they could potentially have up to a 6 team tie at 5-3. I didn't get through all of the variations on the ties, but I'm pretty sure that each team (except for LSU who is already eliminated) still has a chance of winning the division.
The good news is that it can't be Florida or Tennessee.
Husband?! What was all that one in a million talk?
I have updated the odds with the latest SP+ rankings. UVA falls from ~21% to ~16%, we rise from 0.97% to 1.12%, and Pitt rises from ~78% to ~83%. A bigger shift than I expected, but it still doesn't change any of the math on what we would need to win the division.