On the message boards, I've noticed a bunch of people commenting how teams that beat us always seem to shoot better from range against us than they do throughout the rest of the year.
Well, as a useless stats guy, I went on the four-letter dot com and pulled up the three years of CMYBall and took a look.
Year 1: 2019-2020
In 16 losses, the average Virginia Tech opponent's season average was 33.6%, but against Virginia Tech, they averaged 37.9%. UNC had the greatest variance, hitting 53.8% against a season average of 30.4%. Two other schools, FSU and Georgia Tech, averaged greater than 10% over their season averages. Five other opponents averaged greater than 5% over. Five teams actually shot poorer than their season averages.
>20% = 6.25%
10-20% = 12.5%
5-10% = 31.25%
0-5% = 18.75
<0% = 31.25%
Year 2: 2020-2021
In 7 losses, the average our opponents season average was 33.5%, whereas against the Hokies, they averaged 39.5%. Penn State had the greatest variance, hitting 52.2% vs their season average of 33.8%. They were the only opponent averaging greater than 10%. One team averaged less than their season percentage.
>10%: 14.29%
5-10%: 57.14%
0-5%: 14.29%
<0%: 14.29%
Year 3: 2021-2022
Your defending ACC Champions had 13 losses. Those 13 teams averaged a 34.6% through the season, while they averaged 39.4% against the Hokies. Miami had the craziest variance, going from 35.3% to 61.1% against the Hokies. Joining them in the 20% range was Texas, who went from 32.3% to 52.6%.
>20%: 15.38%
10-20%: 7.69%
5-10%: 7.69%
0-5%: 46.15%
<0%: 23.08%
Comments
I last took statistics approximately 20 years ago, so I don't know if there's anything statistically significant in any of that, but I can tell you that seeing the huge variance hurts a lot.
That's about how long ago I had my last stats class.
You only considered losses right? If you look at only the wins, I would be willing to bet a bundle that most opponents shot below their average and probably VT above theirs. I think that conclusively proves that whoever shoots the ball better is more likely to win. Go figure....
That is correct. I focused on the losses because, let's be honest, so do the message boards. However, in some of the games, the team that shot worse lost.
It was interesting to see it in the losses, but for comparison sake the whole season would have been a better gauge. It is possible teams shoot better against us and still lose.
There are lots of outcomes that could be seen, when we defend the 3 better then we win. Or are we defending the 2 more because that team is better In the paint so we leave the 3s more open.
Pomeroy ran the stats a decade back. Defensive 3pt% has the lowest correlation through a season of any team defensive stat. It is almost purely luck.
https://kenpom.com/blog/3point-defense-should-not-be-defined-by-opponent...
Coincidentally weren't we like last in the entire ncaa in "luck" at one point in the year according to kenpom rankings
We're pretty far down there this season (and two years before that we were in the same area): https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankLuck
310 out of 357. Ugh
I believe it was much worse after the Miami loss and improved through the rest of the season.
This year, if it weren't for bad luck, we'd have no luck a'tall. But it goes to show, with a great coach, a couple of Mutts with Aluma, and several wings that shoot the rock you can still win an ACC *mfn** Championship. Luck be damned!!!!
I think we have had to keep our defense closer to the hoop to make up for the lack of rim/paint defenders the past couple of seasons. Basically you hope our typically smaller lineup had the speed to get back out to the arc and close out on threes. I would bet we give up more uncontested looks than most and when we do close out better, the scores are probably closer. If we can get some size and do not have to bring a guard down to double the post as much, the difference between an opponents average and our games would probably shrink.
I wonder if any of this correlates with our opponents average height vs VTs average height....
I would be interested to see the relationship between Home vs Away. Do teams shoot better at home? How much is that a factor in winning more at home? How does that correlate with the above? I feel like we have some players who shoot better from three at the Cassell.
Ok. I have many new ideas for further research. Give me a few days.
my brain cant wrap around only having 7 losses in 20-21... is my memory wrong?
COVID led to many cancellations. We finished with a 15-7 record. 9-4 ACC with one OCC loss.
lost first round of ACCT and first round of NCAAT