By the (Advanced) Numbers: North Carolina State

By most measures, this is the low point of Virginia Tech football since I began my "By the (Advanced) Numbers series" on The Key Play years ago. Is it the bottom? That's a more difficult question to answer, and as with most things, the bottom is only obvious in hindsight. Right now, Hokie Nation must accept that things are not going well, and the Hokies will be an underdog in almost every game the rest of the season.

Where the 2015 Season Stands

Virginia Tech is currently 2-3. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:

Virginia Tech is not favored in a single game remaining until ending the season against Virginia. Chin up...how bad is Virginia?

The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:

Making a bowl game is now considerably less likely than not making one. There is a 4.6% chance that we do not see another win for the remainder of the season. Good thing Tech fans like bourbon.

Rankings and Computer Predictions

The computer rankings and predictions for each team:

If the game was being played in Raleigh, Virginia Tech would be about a 6-point underdog. The odds of a 0-point favorite winning are 50.0%. No other website offers advanced analytics like that.

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:

N.C. State brings in an advantage offensively, and although that is opponent-adjusted, the Wolfpack have played a weak schedule and it is extrapolating to anticipate how they'll play against an elite average defense.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.

Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Tech offense has the ball?

The Hokies' weakness — rushing — plays into the Wolfpack's strength and vice-versa. After a poor performance against Pitt, fans must wonder which passing attack will show up. If the efficient and explosive aerial unit that started the season arrives, then there is potential to carve N.C. State's defense. However, a poor passing game will make life very difficult on the Hokies.

When N.C. State Has the Ball

Again, let's examine pass-run comparisons first:

The Wolfpack's offense is a little above average in each category, while the Hokies' defense is, well, not a traditional Virginia Tech defense. Perhaps personnel changes will be able to improve Bud's effectiveness for the remainder of the season.

Who To Watch Out For

Something to ponder: Given the season to this point, if another team were writing a similar preview what Hokie players would they watch out for?

1. QB Jacoby Brissett runs an efficient offense, he's completed 72% of passes with no interceptions on the season. However, he has a 7.5% sack rate, which is especially high, so Friday might be the night d-line busts out.
2. TE Jaylen Samuels is the favorite target in the passing game and will be seen regularly.
3. More due to what it says about their defense than the player himself, the third spot goes to Josh Jones — a safety who leads the team in tackles.

Statistical Key to the Game

There is not much hope for the Hokies' rushing attack so the team will have to be successful through the air to open up any chance of running. Most importantly the passing attack needs to spread the defense by completing mid-range and deep passes. Virginia Tech's statistical key to the game will be yards per catch, and it needs to be at least 13 yards.

Statistical Prediction

The statistics predict that Virginia Tech will finish with 174 passing yards and 161 rushing yards, and N.C. State will finish with 171 passing yards and 225 rushing yards. Given personnel changes and the potential return of Michael Brewer, I will be optimistic and believe the Hokies will beat that passing total and limit the Wolfpack rushing total.

Virginia Tech 24, N.C. State 14

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.