By the (Advanced) Numbers: Hokies Host a High-Octane Wake Forest

Virginia Tech will have to outpace the Demon Deacons if it wants to bounce back and win its next ACC game.

As the saying goes, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. And against Notre Dame, the Hokies may not have been good, but they sure came close to being lucky, and all wins count the same.

To be fair, Virginia Tech fought especially hard on both sides of the line and the defense was mostly excellent, especially given the losses in the secondary as the game went on. However, given the statistics of the game (yardage difference, turnovers, etc...) Notre Dame had a 99% win probability:

In other words, given the statistical gap in performance between the teams, Notre Dame would be expected to win that game 99 times out of 100. It's a fair point. Forcing fumbles is not a skill that teams tend to be much better at than others, and once a fumble is forced, who recovers it is pretty much a coin flip. So the goal line turnover by Notre Dame is a pretty big "luck" play. Divine Deablo catching that fumble in mid-air and returning it 98 yards for the score is even luckier.

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