After a dominating 51-24 win at Purdue, it was easy for Hokie Nation to feel good about the remainder of the season. The offense was rolling. Beamerball was back. The less-than-elite performances by the defense were an anomaly; certainly correctable given the talent and Bud Foster's acumen. Just a week later, the sky is falling. Virginia Tech's defense was inept in a 28-35 loss at East Carolina. Moreover, miscues and penalties plagued both the offense and special teams. And now Foster's unit will have to get by without star corner Kendall Fuller.
In either case, the counter to irrational emotion is analytical thinking. Looking at hard numbers and film reviews restores a sense of control and clear thinking about what to expect from the Hokies moving forward. Even in areas where the team is clearly mediocre, seeing how Virginia Tech stacks up nationally is a good reminder that while the team may not be where fans want, there are many, many teams that are clearly worse. Thanks to how teams cluster towards mediocrity, the numbers also offer reason for genuine hope—even a moderate improvement moving forward can move the national ranking by leaps and bounds.
Moving on from East Carolina, a team the Hokies inexplicably seem to struggle with, this week's By the (Advanced) Numbers takes a look at Pittsburgh, a team the Hokies inexplicably seem to struggle with.
Where the Season Stands
Virginia Tech is currently 2-2. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:
But hey, upsets feel really good and look at how many opportunities Tech has!
The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:
It is currently more likely that Virginia Tech does not make a bowl than does.
Rankings and Computer Predictions
The computer rankings and predictions for each team:
Most computers are seeing Pitt as a slightly better team, but given homefield advantage Virginia Tech tends to be favored. The odds of a 4.5-point favorite winning are 63.2%.
Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:
S&P+ is one of the computers that has Virginia Tech rated higher than Pittsburgh, but the margin is very thin. In what is a clear trend at this point, the Hokies' offense is rated higher than the defense.
When Virginia Tech Has the Ball
Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.
Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Tech offense has the ball?
Thanks to the inept rushing committee formed in Blacksburg, Tech is not rated particularly well at running the ball; fortunately, the Panther's rush defense appears to be even worse, so there is some room for success. According to Football Study Hall's advanced statistical profile of Virginia Tech, Travon McMillan needs to be the Hokies' feature back. The profile credits the offensive line for the first five yards of a carry, and terms those yards beyond that "highlight yards". Travon is averaging 7 highlight yards per opportunity, compared to the next best running back — Trey Edmunds — at 6.0, and no one else is close. But the bigger reason is the ability to hit the right hole and gain opportunities for highlight yards — McMillan has an opportunity rate of 58% compared to 29% for Edmunds. The eyes of every fan watching Tech's games agrees, McMillan needs the lion's share of touches.
When Pittsburgh Has the Ball
Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:
This could turn into a long day on the ground, as the Panthers field a top 15 rushing unit against a Hokies' run defense that is ranked in the top 102.
Who To Watch Out For
- Oh my. 6-2, 230 redshirt freshman running back Qadree Ollison might make me wish James Conner was playing. Recalling the highlight yards per opportunity stat, Ollison is sitting on an incredible 12.7 yards, making him a huge home run threat.
- Elite WR Tyler Boyd is targeted on 36% of throws (next closest: 13%) and hauls in 84% of them for 9 yards per target.
- Diminutive CB Avonte Maddox has 6 pass break-ups on the season, but may struggle if he is put into one-on-one situations with Bucky hodges. Hodges has 10 inches on the 5-9 Maddox.
Statistical Key to the Game
TECH CANNOT GET GASHED ON THE GROUND. It's been discussed plenty thus far — the statistical key to the game is highlight yards gained by Pitt per opportunity. Bud must find a way to stop the home run threat the Pitt rushing game brings and force them into long drives.
Statistical Prediction
Statistically, Virginia Tech is projected to gain 241 yards passing and 171 yards rushing while Pitt is projected at 161 yards passing and 208 yards rushing, putting the Hokies at an overall yardage advantage. There is no evidence one team is more likely to turn the ball over more than the other, so I'll take the Hokies to narrowly escape and back us all (slightly) off the edge.
Virginia Tech 27, Pittsburgh 24
As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.
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