Expectations, and some reality:

I am really excited about this year.

After years of frustration watching Virginia Tech football lose it's identity on offense (and special teams), and losing games that could have been won, significant changes have finally been made.

The reaction to the new coaches was 'thank GOD' at first; then 'who are these guys?' and then 'I was expecting a little bit more at the Spring game....'
But slowly, as we have gotten some looks from recruits that we never would have before, and have expanded our recruiting footprint with apparent success, the Hokie faithful are starting to develop some love for the new staff; and hope that the new inspires the old to get back to Hokie football.

I personally want to see a lot of 4 yards and a cloud of dust with occasional vertical strikes ala 'Andre Davis is open deep!' I want to see opponent's kickers lying on their backs, craning their necks to see one of our boys recover the blocked punt for a score. I want to see Hokie defenders flying around again with seeming abandon causing fear, disruption, and confusion as Coach Foster smiles on the sidelines knowing that he knew what was going to happen once again........

But, I have to temper this with reality. This is unfamiliar territory for the Hokies. The last time the Hokies suffered a season similar was 1992 when we went 2-8-1 with losses to ECU, Southern Miss, and UVA, amongst others, prompting coaching changes. We changed BOTH offensive and defensive coordinators, and started the rise to new levels of success never seen before at Lane stadium. The Hokies went 9-3 in 1993 and formally introduced Beamer Ball to anybody watching the Independance Bowl, decimating Indiana in the last moments of the first half. We went 8-4 in 1994, but the season that changed it all was 1995-the promotion of one Bud Foster to Co-defensive Coordinator and shocking the football establishment with our 28-10 destruction of THE university of Texas on prime-time national television.

We all know the rest, and the Hokie faithful have enjoyed a wave of success; but last year was a reminder of how fragile success can be.

So, now that the Hokie train is back on track, I'm ready to enjoy another 10 win season....right?
But how realistic is this expectation?

I looked back at the top 10 winningest programs from 2000-2009 for some guidance:
#10-our beloved Hokies. We know all this. Besides going 8-4 in 2001 and 8-5 in 2003, the Hokies have been solid and blessed.
#9-Georgia. The Dawgs' worst period started in 2009. They went 8-5 causing a change in DC from Willie Martinez to Todd Grantham. There were also off-season issues with multiple arrests, allegations of agents, and the firing of the AD for a DUI. The next year was worse: 2010 they went 6-7 with a loss to Central Florida in the Liberty Bowl! But Georgia recovered in 2011 going 10-4.
#8-LSU. The Tigers have been very consistent, but had their worst period starting in 2008 when they went 8-5. They lost Bo Pelini in the off season and had put in Doug Mallory as a replacement. He lasted a year and was replaced by John Chavis to help the 2009 Tigers go 9-4, then 11-2 in 2010.
#7-TCU. Yep, kinda surprising, but here they are. They are the #7 most successful program from 2000-2009, even though they went 5-6 in 2004. This was Gary Patterson's 4th year as HC, but only the first year for Dick Bumpas as DC. They rebounded to go 11-1 in 2005, helped by the change from Conference USA to the Mountain West.
#6-Florida. The Gators went 8-5, 8-5, 7-5 from 2002 to 2004 with the great Ron Zook experiment. But then Urban Meyer led them to 13-1 in 2009 with a senior Tim Tebow under center. They lost Charlie Strong in the off season and went 8-5 2010 again with new DC Teryl Austin, and then lost Urban Meyer to go 7-6 in 2011 with 1st year coach Will Muschamp. They bounced back to 11-2 in 2012.
#5-USC. 1999 6-6, 2000 5-7 with the dismissal of Paul Hackett. The Trojans hired Pete Carroll to go 6-6 in 2001, but then went 11-2 in 2002.
#4-Ohio State. The Buckeyes went 6-6 in 1999 causing John Cooper to let go 18 year DC Fred Pague. It only gave Cooper one more year as the 2000 team went 8-4 and Jim Tressel was hired. After a 7-5 2001 season, the Buckeyes went 14-0 in 2002.
#3-Oklahoma. They have been consistent with only 2 sub-par seasons: 2005 they went 8-4 prompting a change in their recruiting coach. The Sooners went 8-5 also in 2009, but then went 12-2 in 2010 with the same coordinators in place.
#2-Texas. After a great run with a 13-1 season in 2009, the Longhorns have fallen on hard times going 5-7 in 2010, 8-5 in 2011, and 9-4 in 2012. The OC Greg Davis resigned when other coaches were leaving, and DC Will Muschamp left the ship to become UFla's coach after the 2010 regular season.
#1-Boise State. Yes, Boise State was the winningest football program from 2000-2009 going 112-17 or winning almost 87% of their games. They 'suffered' through an 8-4 season in 2001 under 1st year HC Dan Hawkins and OC Chris Peterson. They rebounded to 12-1 in 2002, and by 2006, Peterson was HC.

SO.....what does all of that mean?
It is RARE to have multiple 10+ win seasons. Looking at that, it's hard to blame Beamer for trying to keep the mojo rolling despite some glaring issues.
Even the top programs suffer bad seasons. And when they do, typically, it triggers some deserved introspection and usually coaching changes. And, within a FEW years, the ship is righted and the top programs return to glory.
So while I want and hope that the Hokies bust out a season of double-digit wins, it is not likely that it will happen; it usually take 1-2 years with the new staff in place.
And, if it doesn't happen in that time period, usually the head coach is the fall guy.....

I appreciate your attention, and any comments are welcomed. Go Hokies!