I'm continuing to drop some posts evaluating guys on my radar who could potentially be the next guy for VT. This is my third post. The first was on WKU coach Tyson Helton. The second was on JMU coach Bob Chesney.
This week: Dan Mullen
Who is Dan Mullen?
Dan Mullen is the 53-year-old head coach at UNLV who returned to the sidelines in 2025 after spending three years as an ESPN analyst. The New Hampshire native has one of the most impressive coaching resumes in college football, having spent nine seasons at Mississippi State (2009-2017) and four at Florida (2018-2021), compiling a 103-61 record across 13 seasons—all in the SEC.
Before becoming a head coach, Mullen was a master offensive coordinator. He was the architect behind Urban Meyer's offenses at Bowling Green, Utah, and Florida, coaching Heisman winner Tim Tebow and developing Alex Smith into the #1 overall NFL Draft pick. His quarterback tree is arguably the best in modern college football.
He's proven he can build winners at programs with structural disadvantages
At Mississippi State—historically one of the SEC's weakest programs—Mullen achieved things that seemed impossible. He guided the Bulldogs to their first-ever #1 ranking in 2014, finishing 10-2 and appearing in the Orange Bowl. That team was the first Mississippi State squad to crack the initial College Football Playoff rankings at #1. Mullen led MSU to eight straight bowl games (2009-2016), and the program went 69-46 during his tenure with multiple nine and ten-win seasons.
What makes this more impressive? He did it while competing against Alabama, LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M for recruits and wins. Mississippi State's recruiting classes under Mullen typically ranked between 18th-30th nationally, yet he regularly beat teams with far superior talent. His 2014 squad that reached #1 was built largely with three-star recruits.
His quarterback development is unmatched
This is where Mullen separates himself from nearly every other candidate Virginia Tech could consider. The man is a legitimate "quarterback whisperer" with receipts spanning two decades:
- Alex Smith (Utah): Developed into the #1 overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft
- Tim Tebow (Florida): Won the Heisman Trophy, two National Championships, and became one of college football's greatest players
- Dak Prescott (Mississippi State): A three-star recruit who LSU wanted to play tight end became a fourth-round NFL pick, NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and multiple-time Pro Bowler
- Kyle Trask (Florida): Led the nation with 4,125 passing yards and 43 touchdowns in 2020, finished 4th in Heisman voting
- Nick Fitzgerald (Mississippi State): Set SEC single-season records for 100-yard rushing games by a quarterback (8) and average yards per rush by a quarterback (7.1 yards per carry)
Need I remind you that Virginia Tech hasn't developed a legitimate NFL quarterback since... Michael Vick? Tyrod Taylor was solid, but he was never an All-ACC performer in college. Logan Thomas had all the physical tools but never put it together at VT. Since then? It's been a quarterback wasteland in Blacksburg.
His offenses are exactly what Lane Stadium needs
Mullen's offenses aren't just productive—they're fun. At Mississippi State, his offenses consistently ranked in the top 25 nationally in total offense despite recruiting limitations. His 2014 squad ranked 9th nationally in total offense (513.8 yards per game) and 15th in scoring (38.3 points per game). At Florida, his 2020 offense led the SEC in passing yards per game (325.2) and ranked 7th nationally in total offense.
More importantly, Mullen's offenses are innovative and adaptive. He's run pro-style systems, spread offenses, and everything in between. He tailors his scheme to his personnel rather than forcing players into a rigid system. When he had dual-threat Dak Prescott, he ran a QB-run-heavy attack. When he had pocket passer Kyle Trask, he went vertical with the passing game.
For Virginia Tech fans who have endured years of bland, predictable offense, Mullen would bring excitement back to Lane Stadium.
His track record against top competition is impressive
At Mississippi State, Mullen regularly beat ranked opponents despite massive talent disparities. His signature wins include:
- Upset #2 Auburn 38-23 in 2014 (propelling MSU to #1)
- Beat #8 LSU 34-29 at Death Valley in 2014
- Demolished Michigan 52-14 in the 2011 Gator Bowl
- Beat #11 Texas A&M at Kyle Field in 2014
At Florida, he went 11-2 in 2019 with wins over Auburn and Virginia in the Orange Bowl. His 2020 team started 8-1 with multiple top-25 wins before collapsing at the end of the season.
Mullen has shown he can compete with elite programs when the talent gap isn't insurmountable—which is exactly where Virginia Tech needs to be in the ACC.
He's thriving in his first year back on the sidelines
After three years away from coaching, there were legitimate questions about whether Mullen still had it. Would he be rusty? Would the game have passed him by? Through four games at UNLV in 2025, those concerns appear overblown. The Rebels are 4-0 with a stunning 30-23 victory over UCLA—UNLV's first win over a Big Ten opponent in 22 years.
While UNLV was projected to be decent entering 2025 (ranked 73rd in preseason SP+, but with lots of off season media hype), early returns suggest Mullen has quickly adapted to the modern transfer portal era. He brought in key transfers like quarterback Anthony Colandrea from Virginia (203 passing yards, 3 TDs against UCLA) and has the Rebels' offense ranked 41st in SP+ through four games. The defense is a work in progress at 115th, but UNLV inherited a strong offensive foundation that Mullen is maximizing.
But let's address the elephant in the room: Florida
Mullen's tenure at Florida started brilliantly but ended in disaster, and any honest evaluation must confront this. After going 10-3 in 2018 and 11-2 in 2019, his program fell apart in 2020-2021. That's often attributed to recruiting/roster mismanagement.
Here's the brutal timeline:
- 2018: 10-3 record, 12th in 247 Team Composite recruiting ranking
- 2019: 11-2 record, 15th iin 247 Team Composite recruiting ranking
- 2020: 8-4 record, 7th in 247 Team Composite recruiting ranking (but the team started 8-1 before losing their final three games by a combined 82-36)
- 2021: 5-6 record (fired after going 5-6), 7th in 247 Team Composite recruiting ranking
So what went wrong? Multiple issues converged:
Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham was a disaster. Mullen hired Grantham in 2018, and he was awful from the start. Florida's defense ranked 67th in SP+ in 2018, 47th in 2019, 51st in 2020, and 60th in 2021. Mullen inexplicably kept Grantham for three full seasons before finally firing him in October 2021—far too late to save his job.
Roster issues. The story here is that Mullen's laid-back approach to recruiting worked at Mississippi State but was insufficient at Florida, where expectations are National Championship or bust.
I don't know how true the comments about his 'laid-back approach' are, however, it's clear that there were issues: While Mullen managed to increase the team talent composite over his 4 years at UF, the talent wasn't balanced, resulting in underachieving offensive and defensive lines (sound familiar?).
The program culture deteriorated. By 2021, there were reports of player discontent and a lack of discipline. Florida gave up 52 points to Georgia, 49 to South Carolina (as 18.5-point favorites), and lost in overtime to Missouri. The team quit on him.
Here's the counterpoint: Virginia Tech is not Florida. The expectations, resources, and pressure are completely different. Mullen's biggest failures at Florida—defensive coordinator retention, recruiting complacency, cultural issues—are all correctable mistakes that he's likely learned from after three years of reflection.
Modern game management: He gets it
Mullen's first UNLV team has embraced the transfer portal era. He aggressively recruited the portal to rebuild after Barry Odom left for Purdue, bringing in key pieces like Colandrea (Virginia), Alex Orji (Michigan), and offensive linemen from North Carolina and Coastal Carolina. He understands that roster management in 2025 looks completely different than it did even five years ago.
His comments about NIL and the portal have been pragmatic and forward-thinking. He's not one of these coaches complaining about the "good old days"—he's adapted.
Can Virginia Tech actually land Dan Mullen?
Here's where it gets interesting. Mullen is making $3.5 million per year at UNLV on a five-year, $17.5 million contract he signed in December 2024. He's publicly stated he plans to be at UNLV for the long haul, saying "I love it here. You guys have seen that I love Vegas. We're having a lot of fun and really enjoying it" and confirming he'll "still be here next year."
Of course, coaches say these things all the time...
The real question is whether the Virginia Tech Head Coaching job is compelling enough for Dan Mullen to leave UNLV after just one season.
The game just changed: Virginia Tech's $229 million athletics investment
As every TKPer knows, the Board approved an additional $229 million investment in athletics over four years, with the explicit goal of competing with top programs in the ACC. President Tim Sands framed this as a "historic juncture" where "the tumblers at the institution, conference and national levels are all aligned."
What this means for landing Mullen
With this investment, Virginia Tech can now credibly offer:
- Competitive compensation: VT can now offer $6-8 million per year, roughly double Mullen's UNLV salary
- Modern infrastructure: The "front office" model for football operations that Mullen would need to succeed
- NIL resources: The funding to compete in the revenue-sharing era
- Long-term commitment: Proof that the university is serious about winning at the highest level
But why would Mullen still choose UNLV over Virginia Tech?
Even with the investment, Mullen might stay in Las Vegas because:
- Money:VT can likely match Mullen's $3.5 million in Las Vegas with no state income tax, but how much better can we do?
- ACC:Does Mullen want to go to a conference that could fall apart in the next 5 years? What's an easier path to the playoff: UNLV through the Group of Five autobid or navigating the ACC cul-de-sac
- Quality of life: Las Vegas in 2025 is a completely different place than Starkville, Mississippi in 2009. It's a destination city with no state income tax, world-class amenities, and a brand-new $2 billion stadium. After the Florida experience, would Mullen want to jump into another high-pressure rebuild?
His roots in the Northeast (New Hampshire native, coached at Syracuse and Notre Dame as a GA) could be a factor. The ACC is objectively a better long-term career move than the Mountain West. And if VT is willing to pay $6-7 million per year with complete operational control, that's hard to turn down—especially when the alternative is waiting and hoping a better SEC or Big Ten job opens up.
The realistic assessment
Before September 30, I would have said Dan Mullen to Virginia Tech was a pipe dream. The budget constraints made it unrealistic. Now? It's genuinely possible. How possible? I don't know.
Another piece to consider is what other jobs open up? Is Arkansas more attractive than VT? If Baylor opens, does Mullen go there instead of VT? If Florida or Auburn or Arkansas hire Rhett Lashlee or Sony Dykes away from SMU or TCU (respectively), are those newly-opened jobs more attractive to Mullen than VT? I'm not sure.
The final consideration I can think of is the 'General Manager' aspect. Virginia Tech has sent mixed signals around if the front office staff will be NFL-style (meaning that the GM hires the coach and players) or more traditional College style (The GM reports to the coach, and takes ownership of personnel and expenses). I'm speculating, but I imagine Mullen wants as few bosses as possible. While it's know that he doesn't really enjoy recruiting, I can't see him being willing to completely outsource personnel. There's zero doubt that VT's strategy here directly impacts how attractive we are to coaching candidates.
Comments
I totally read the post title as "The Announcement for" lol
lol one can dream
3.5 mil at a G5 should tell you how bad VT pay has been. Why move to the ACC for 500k when you can have a way less stressful work environment.
Never thought of it that way, but you're totally right.
Dan Mullen is my top choice among candidates I think are realistic. I've wanted Dan Mullen since our last coaching search, I think VT could be perfect for him.
remember when Mac Brown had a crazy high ranked class at UT that produced no draft choices?
Mullen's 12th ranked 2018 class produced only one defensive starter. He had 60% of one class transfer and 70% of another transfer.
The pro on Mullen is offense. Everything else is questionable at best. As of 10/5, UNLV SP+ for defense is 29.2 (102)
yeah he had apr and no idea what to do with him
also gave a scholarship to desmond watson lol
Look we love Grantham cause hes one of us, but we booted him for Vud 30 years ago, as long as Mullen hires a good DC then there's a chance
All of these points give me significant pause and Mullen was my front runner.
Keep in mind the timeline here. 2018 was also the first year the Transfer Portal existed. That 2018 class had 7 defensive players, three of them Defensive Ends. Four of the seven transferred out and three of those were after their position coach was fired. The three that remained were all on the two deep by their Junior years.
Dean was the only starter. Misses were abundant in his tenure at UF. If we are going to use recruiting rankings as an index, then we also need to see how those classes panned out.
If we want offense, Mullen can sure deliver. But he hasn't fielded a good defense in his last 5+ years of coaching.
I'm not going to lose sleep if we hire Mullen; he doesn't have a particularly low floor but I don't think his ceiling is particularly high either. And personality wise, he is a turd in the punchbowl. We can, and imo should, aim higher.
W hire tbh
I think choosing sec/big 10 over acc isn't the strong argument most people think it is. For the next few years acc champion and maybe acc #2 is going to be an easy path to the playoffs and once in the playoffs, anything can happen. Outside of the top 3 in sec/big 10, you have to basically get comfortable that you're not going to the playoffs.
After those years, the entire landscape could be different. If the coach does well, then vt will likely be in that next wave of pickups into the p2. If vt doesn't get picked up, the coach will have the experience of working in the modern system with a gm and all that and will probably have offers from teams that do get picked up into p2.
Now that VT has upped the budget, a coach coming here vs a mid or low sec/big 10 team is likely a much better a opportunity.
It's circumstantial. But I think most circumstances favor the P2 schools. After all, even the bottom of the P2 rung is making double the TV dollars that VT is making.
The other thing about the ACC... it's not hard to imagine a scenario where the ACC falls and VT gets left out of the P2 like Oregon State or Wazzou got left out of the P4. I think coaches think about those things.
I don't think coaches put too much thought into what might happen more than 5 years down the line when taking jobs. You have to remember, they all think that they can win anywhere. They almost all have the drive to move up to the next best thing. They know that coaching is a job that involves a lot of moving around barring a few exceptions.
I have no doubt that if Mullen thinks that VT could be left out of the next round of expansion, he could just use VT to up his profile and move on to a P2 job. If you are at least a decent coach, there will always be other job opportunities if things go south.
If VT really is serious about athletics and we really are putting our money where our mouth is with this current investment that the BoV approved, then I'm less worried about VT being left out than I was before. I think that has always been the biggest question for us, in that are we going to legitimately fund a program to compete or if we would continue being cheap. This answers those concerns.
I think the biggest question is if the P2 want to expand/what's the threshold where VT makes other schools money?
The other thing I wonder is if the P2 will implement an ACC-like revenue sharing in the next round of realignment, or will the bluebloods leave all together.
Anyways, it's way to early to tell, but I don't expect VT to get promoted to the top level, even with the added investment. As Bill C loves to say, "this sport hates a usurper"
I wouldn't hate a Dan Mullen hire. Thanks for the breakdown
Slight correction. Rhett Lashlee is SMU's coach
lol I'll blame that on autocorrect. Thanks for correcting!
My question with Mullen is:
I totally would be happy if we hire the guy.
I'm a bit doubtful tbh. I just think more attractive jobs will open.
Mullens worst year at UF was almost as good as Prys best year here
Looking good at UNLV so far. I'm curious how the game vs Boise goes.
This would be a big statement about VTs commitment to football, and would create some excitement around the program.
I wouldn't hate this move.
Of all the big fish out there, this is the biggest. If he's at all interested, you throw everything you have to get him in.
And this is where the investment into football that we're currently making could pay off big.
Matt Campbell is the other person who could potentially be in play who I think you mortgage the home to get. But I agree, you fight to land Mullen.
Yes. These guys have to be targets 1a and 1b
100% agree. These two have been my top two candidates.
I'm looking forward to the review of him in this series.
He would be intriguing and I think a good coach here. Arguably the path the playoff is much easier in the ACC than in the entire G5. With the cash infusion we could offer a competitive salary and I wouldn't mind paying it for a proven coach. The biggest issue will be does a SEC back up a brinks truck.
The idea that he could help pick the GM and push duties he doesn't want to that guy is also big.
I think more realistically, we hire him he improves the program and shows he still has the chops in a P5 program. Then gets hired away. But that still leaves us with a better program.
I think we need to not worry about a coach getting bought away. While it's not ideal, its better than having a coach no one wants to buy away.
Or hiring a coach that nobody else was looking to hire...
Been there, done that, watched the fouir year decline
This is the hire. VT has stepped up big time and can now has a legitimate shot at landing him. Mullen took a G5 job. I'm thinking moving to a P4 team may be more attractive for him vs a P2 team. He comes to VT and elevates us over the next 3-5 years and he will either be retained with a proper raise or get lured away. Either way, we benefit from his coaching.
Plus we can easily afford him. If we hire him, then for a first time, we will have a truly proven offensive HC.
LT Rob also made reference to 2018 and the portal. Helps explain the situation.
At this point I have no issue or concerns with Mullen. Go get him VT!!!!
slow your roll geezie... we can outbid UNLV for him. If SMU or TCU open up, then it changes things.
Yeah word is his buyout if he jumps to a P4 job is $7M which isn't exactly cheap.
I've heard also that UNLV has publicly stated that they don't actually have the revenue or funds available to pay out Mullen's full contract. So I'm not sure how that all plays out, but that to me would be a big mitigating factor in negotiating down any buyout. They know that they can't even fulfill his contract!
We can afford him. Now, like anything, if a bidding war comes to play, then things can become unaffordable or can remain competitive but one doesn't possess the winning offer.
From his current salary to what we can now payout, he is affordable. No question.
Does he bring Collandrea with him?
I'll take Drones + Mullen over Collandrea + Mullen. But I'm unsure that Drones has eligibility left after this year.
Huh? Drones should never be picked over anyone or anything. Just go to a game and watch it in person... if you know football at all you see just how poor he is at just about everything.
He's running a system that doesn't fit his skillset with an OL that can't pass protect. I don't think he's great, but I also think most college qbs suck, and outside of the top dozen, it's just about scheme fit and surrounding talent.
Strong comment.
And combine a 2nd tier QB, poor OL play, and some 2nd tier coaching.......
Just imagine Drones in Buster Faulkner's (GT OC's) offense with an OL coached by Brent Key. He'd be about as good as Haynes King.
Now imagine Haynes King in this Phillip Montgomery offense with this VT line... he'd be about as bad as Drones is.
Until he takes off with the ball for no gain while the jet sweep option had two blockers in front of him and wide open spaces.
Ugh 🤮, such a whiny doucheface. He was a perfect fit at loluva, but at least he could get the ball to wide open receivers
Sure. He would be a serviceable backup to the stud Mullen nabs from the portal
"The Argument for Dan Mullen to be the next VT Football Coach" anagrams to: "Dan Mullen needs to be VTs next coach".
Ahhhhhhhhh-nnnnd......there you have it!
Must acquiesce to science.
The man is a legitimate "quarterback whisperer"
Yea, well, so was Fuente, who is currently digging ditches in Oklahoma.
To paraphrase Patton:
'Thirty years from now when you're sitting around your fireside with your grandson on your knee, and he asks you, "What did you do as a football coach in the 2020s?" -- you won't have to say, "Well, I shoveled shit in Louisiana." Alright now you sons-of-bitches, You know how I feel.'
Comparing Fuente's QB development history to Mullen's is kind of a joke
I guess my sarcasm didn't come through
One of the funniest memes I ever saw on this site was created by Jcpvt. It's a picture of Fuente with the text "Justin Fuente is a QB Whisperer".
Bottom of meme: *whispers to QB* I am going to kill you...
Still have the screenshot of that one it made me laugh so hard
But that face is one of the most punchable in college football
I can only guess this was supposed to be in the Colandrea sub thread
Probably. But that doesn't change the fact that "Colandrea" sounds like some sort of STD.
It fits both.
Hire him. He's the number one target.
Can I put in a request for Glenn Schumann?
I have Charles Huff, Jon Sumrall, Will Stein, Alex Golesh, and now Glenn Schumann on my list! Maybe I'll add to (or remove from) the list as leaks start to drip.
Appreciate your work!
He was the ACC Player of the Year in 2010, and 1st team All-ACC. He definitely counts as a real NFL QB. He started multiple seasons, is still in the NFL at 36 (started a game a few weeks ago), made a Pro Bowl, and has thrown for thrown for 12500+ NFL yards.
Onto Mullen. I love this analysis. He is probably my top choice, and I would be elated if we landed him. My only quibble is that I don't think 2020 was bad. Record aside, I think that was the best Florida team since Urban Meyer left Gainesville, and his 2019 team was the second best one since then. That 2020 team went toe to toe with 2020 Alabama in the SECCG. 2020 Alabama, for my money, is either the best, or second best college football team I have ever watched.
At the end of the day, there's really no selling point stronger than he managed to turn Mississippi State into a consistent winner while being there during much of the peak of the SEC West, by far the hardest division in the sport in that era, and probably the weakest program in that division. That, combined with his recent success, particularly returning to sport in the portal era and utilizing it effectively, answer the biggest possible question of "well that was a different era..."
So much ^^this^^.
Great points. I've been high on Mullen since we fired Fuente. We need to do what it takes to land him, or someone like him. My concern is the utter lack of cohesive vision and messaging coming out of the athletic department right now concerning the process and the future... I think that might cripple us as it relates to landing a high profile coach.
Quote from Alex Kirshner on the split zone duo hurry up this week:
I clocked that too, and thought it was funny we were all so much quicker on that train. IIRC, he went unmentioned in our little "the Job" pod they did.
Yea, I was talking to Alex about it on Bluesky. He said they recorded it before the $50m increase was announced, but heard the rumors that it was coming. Seems like it didn't change their thought process that much, which has me concerned.. but I digress
While we are biased from being VT fans, they are national guys who can't possibly be perfectly clued in on every program in the country. RJ and Alex's less than stellar view of the job, etc. is simply not a concern to me. We know the downsides of the VT job too. Many here have a very realistic view of where VT is at in the CFB landscape, despite the potential for M&O blinders.