The Argument for Dan Mullen to be the next VT Football Coach

I'm continuing to drop some posts evaluating guys on my radar who could potentially be the next guy for VT. This is my third post. The first was on WKU coach Tyson Helton. The second was on JMU coach Bob Chesney.

This week: Dan Mullen

Who is Dan Mullen?

Dan Mullen is the 53-year-old head coach at UNLV who returned to the sidelines in 2025 after spending three years as an ESPN analyst. The New Hampshire native has one of the most impressive coaching resumes in college football, having spent nine seasons at Mississippi State (2009-2017) and four at Florida (2018-2021), compiling a 103-61 record across 13 seasons—all in the SEC.

Before becoming a head coach, Mullen was a master offensive coordinator. He was the architect behind Urban Meyer's offenses at Bowling Green, Utah, and Florida, coaching Heisman winner Tim Tebow and developing Alex Smith into the #1 overall NFL Draft pick. His quarterback tree is arguably the best in modern college football.

He's proven he can build winners at programs with structural disadvantages

At Mississippi State—historically one of the SEC's weakest programs—Mullen achieved things that seemed impossible. He guided the Bulldogs to their first-ever #1 ranking in 2014, finishing 10-2 and appearing in the Orange Bowl. That team was the first Mississippi State squad to crack the initial College Football Playoff rankings at #1. Mullen led MSU to eight straight bowl games (2009-2016), and the program went 69-46 during his tenure with multiple nine and ten-win seasons.

What makes this more impressive? He did it while competing against Alabama, LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M for recruits and wins. Mississippi State's recruiting classes under Mullen typically ranked between 18th-30th nationally, yet he regularly beat teams with far superior talent. His 2014 squad that reached #1 was built largely with three-star recruits.

His quarterback development is unmatched

This is where Mullen separates himself from nearly every other candidate Virginia Tech could consider. The man is a legitimate "quarterback whisperer" with receipts spanning two decades:

• Alex Smith (Utah): Developed into the #1 overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft
• Tim Tebow (Florida): Won the Heisman Trophy, two National Championships, and became one of college football's greatest players
• Dak Prescott (Mississippi State): A three-star recruit who LSU wanted to play tight end became a fourth-round NFL pick, NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and multiple-time Pro Bowler
• Kyle Trask (Florida): Led the nation with 4,125 passing yards and 43 touchdowns in 2020, finished 4th in Heisman voting
• Nick Fitzgerald (Mississippi State): Set SEC single-season records for 100-yard rushing games by a quarterback (8) and average yards per rush by a quarterback (7.1 yards per carry)

Need I remind you that Virginia Tech hasn't developed a legitimate NFL quarterback since... Michael Vick? Tyrod Taylor was solid, but he was never an All-ACC performer in college. Logan Thomas had all the physical tools but never put it together at VT. Since then? It's been a quarterback wasteland in Blacksburg.

His offenses are exactly what Lane Stadium needs

Mullen's offenses aren't just productive—they're fun. At Mississippi State, his offenses consistently ranked in the top 25 nationally in total offense despite recruiting limitations. His 2014 squad ranked 9th nationally in total offense (513.8 yards per game) and 15th in scoring (38.3 points per game). At Florida, his 2020 offense led the SEC in passing yards per game (325.2) and ranked 7th nationally in total offense.

More importantly, Mullen's offenses are innovative and adaptive. He's run pro-style systems, spread offenses, and everything in between. He tailors his scheme to his personnel rather than forcing players into a rigid system. When he had dual-threat Dak Prescott, he ran a QB-run-heavy attack. When he had pocket passer Kyle Trask, he went vertical with the passing game.

For Virginia Tech fans who have endured years of bland, predictable offense, Mullen would bring excitement back to Lane Stadium.

His track record against top competition is impressive

At Mississippi State, Mullen regularly beat ranked opponents despite massive talent disparities. His signature wins include:

• Upset #2 Auburn 38-23 in 2014 (propelling MSU to #1)
• Beat #8 LSU 34-29 at Death Valley in 2014
• Demolished Michigan 52-14 in the 2011 Gator Bowl
• Beat #11 Texas A&M at Kyle Field in 2014

At Florida, he went 11-2 in 2019 with wins over Auburn and Virginia in the Orange Bowl. His 2020 team started 8-1 with multiple top-25 wins before collapsing at the end of the season.

Mullen has shown he can compete with elite programs when the talent gap isn't insurmountable—which is exactly where Virginia Tech needs to be in the ACC.

He's thriving in his first year back on the sidelines

After three years away from coaching, there were legitimate questions about whether Mullen still had it. Would he be rusty? Would the game have passed him by? Through four games at UNLV in 2025, those concerns appear overblown. The Rebels are 4-0 with a stunning 30-23 victory over UCLA—UNLV's first win over a Big Ten opponent in 22 years.

While UNLV was projected to be decent entering 2025 (ranked 73rd in preseason SP+, but with lots of off season media hype), early returns suggest Mullen has quickly adapted to the modern transfer portal era. He brought in key transfers like quarterback Anthony Colandrea from Virginia (203 passing yards, 3 TDs against UCLA) and has the Rebels' offense ranked 41st in SP+ through four games. The defense is a work in progress at 115th, but UNLV inherited a strong offensive foundation that Mullen is maximizing.

But let's address the elephant in the room: Florida

Mullen's tenure at Florida started brilliantly but ended in disaster, and any honest evaluation must confront this. After going 10-3 in 2018 and 11-2 in 2019, his program fell apart in 2020-2021. That's often attributed to recruiting/roster mismanagement.

Here's the brutal timeline:

• 2018: 10-3 record, 12th in 247 Team Composite recruiting ranking
• 2019: 11-2 record, 15th iin 247 Team Composite recruiting ranking
• 2020: 8-4 record, 7th in 247 Team Composite recruiting ranking (but the team started 8-1 before losing their final three games by a combined 82-36)
• 2021: 5-6 record (fired after going 5-6), 7th in 247 Team Composite recruiting ranking

So what went wrong? Multiple issues converged:

Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham was a disaster. Mullen hired Grantham in 2018, and he was awful from the start. Florida's defense ranked 67th in SP+ in 2018, 47th in 2019, 51st in 2020, and 60th in 2021. Mullen inexplicably kept Grantham for three full seasons before finally firing him in October 2021—far too late to save his job.

Roster issues. The story here is that Mullen's laid-back approach to recruiting worked at Mississippi State but was insufficient at Florida, where expectations are National Championship or bust.

I don't know how true the comments about his 'laid-back approach' are, however, it's clear that there were issues: While Mullen managed to increase the team talent composite over his 4 years at UF, the talent wasn't balanced, resulting in underachieving offensive and defensive lines (sound familiar?).

The program culture deteriorated. By 2021, there were reports of player discontent and a lack of discipline. Florida gave up 52 points to Georgia, 49 to South Carolina (as 18.5-point favorites), and lost in overtime to Missouri. The team quit on him.

Here's the counterpoint: Virginia Tech is not Florida. The expectations, resources, and pressure are completely different. Mullen's biggest failures at Florida—defensive coordinator retention, recruiting complacency, cultural issues—are all correctable mistakes that he's likely learned from after three years of reflection.

Modern game management: He gets it

Mullen's first UNLV team has embraced the transfer portal era. He aggressively recruited the portal to rebuild after Barry Odom left for Purdue, bringing in key pieces like Colandrea (Virginia), Alex Orji (Michigan), and offensive linemen from North Carolina and Coastal Carolina. He understands that roster management in 2025 looks completely different than it did even five years ago.

His comments about NIL and the portal have been pragmatic and forward-thinking. He's not one of these coaches complaining about the "good old days"—he's adapted.

Can Virginia Tech actually land Dan Mullen?

Here's where it gets interesting. Mullen is making $3.5 million per year at UNLV on a five-year, $17.5 million contract he signed in December 2024. He's publicly stated he plans to be at UNLV for the long haul, saying "I love it here. You guys have seen that I love Vegas. We're having a lot of fun and really enjoying it" and confirming he'll "still be here next year."

Of course, coaches say these things all the time...

The real question is whether the Virginia Tech Head Coaching job is compelling enough for Dan Mullen to leave UNLV after just one season.

The game just changed: Virginia Tech's $229 million athletics investment

As every TKPer knows, the Board approved an additional $229 million investment in athletics over four years, with the explicit goal of competing with top programs in the ACC. President Tim Sands framed this as a "historic juncture" where "the tumblers at the institution, conference and national levels are all aligned."

What this means for landing Mullen

With this investment, Virginia Tech can now credibly offer:

• Competitive compensation: VT can now offer $6-8 million per year, roughly double Mullen's UNLV salary
• Modern infrastructure: The "front office" model for football operations that Mullen would need to succeed
• NIL resources: The funding to compete in the revenue-sharing era
• Long-term commitment: Proof that the university is serious about winning at the highest level

But why would Mullen still choose UNLV over Virginia Tech?

Even with the investment, Mullen might stay in Las Vegas because:

• Money:VT can likely match Mullen's $3.5 million in Las Vegas with no state income tax, but how much better can we do?
• ACC:Does Mullen want to go to a conference that could fall apart in the next 5 years? What's an easier path to the playoff: UNLV through the Group of Five autobid or navigating the ACC cul-de-sac
• Quality of life: Las Vegas in 2025 is a completely different place than Starkville, Mississippi in 2009. It's a destination city with no state income tax, world-class amenities, and a brand-new $2 billion stadium. After the Florida experience, would Mullen want to jump into another high-pressure rebuild?

His roots in the Northeast (New Hampshire native, coached at Syracuse and Notre Dame as a GA) could be a factor. The ACC is objectively a better long-term career move than the Mountain West. And if VT is willing to pay $6-7 million per year with complete operational control, that's hard to turn down—especially when the alternative is waiting and hoping a better SEC or Big Ten job opens up.

The realistic assessment

Before September 30, I would have said Dan Mullen to Virginia Tech was a pipe dream. The budget constraints made it unrealistic. Now? It's genuinely possible. How possible? I don't know.

Another piece to consider is what other jobs open up? Is Arkansas more attractive than VT? If Baylor opens, does Mullen go there instead of VT? If Florida or Auburn or Arkansas hire Rhett Lashlee or Sony Dykes away from SMU or TCU (respectively), are those newly-opened jobs more attractive to Mullen than VT? I'm not sure.

The final consideration I can think of is the 'General Manager' aspect. Virginia Tech has sent mixed signals around if the front office staff will be NFL-style (meaning that the GM hires the coach and players) or more traditional College style (The GM reports to the coach, and takes ownership of personnel and expenses). I'm speculating, but I imagine Mullen wants as few bosses as possible. While it's know that he doesn't really enjoy recruiting, I can't see him being willing to completely outsource personnel. There's zero doubt that VT's strategy here directly impacts how attractive we are to coaching candidates.