By the (Advanced) Numbers: Boston College

Before the Duke game, it felt like the Hokies were a definite underdog and yet inexplicably Las Vegas and computers both slightly favored Virginia Tech. It is often said if a spread really surprises you, bet opposite your instinct. Against the Blue Devils, that would have been reasonable advice. Despite the painful ending, the Hokies weren't overmatched at all.

Things are a little more complicated this week because Boston College is such an extreme team. The Eagles feature one of the best defenses in college football, and are handicapped by one of the worst offenses. However, it may be special teams that determine the outcome of this game.

Where the Season Stands

Virginia Tech is currently 3-5. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:

The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:

Currently the bowl picture is looking grim but there is still a chance:

Rankings and Computer Predictions

The computer rankings and predictions for each team:

Much like last week, this is anyone's game with Virginia Tech enjoying only a slight advantage. The odds of a 2.5-point favorite winning are 57.5%.

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:

As stated in the intro, the Eagles are a team of extremes. The defense is truly elite and will be a very difficult matchup for the Hokies' offense, while the Eagles' offense is simply terrible. Both teams aren't much above the middle-of-the-pack in overall rating but they take two very different paths to get there.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.

Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Tech offense has the ball?

Offensive success will be hard to come by on Saturday, and given the Eagles' 3rd-ranked rush defense, this is not the game to turn away from Travon McMillian. That said, the statistics suggest the passing game is more likely to create at least a little movement, and will need early gains to open up any running room.

Offensive and defensive line performance are compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:

Not surprisingly, Boston College's defensive success starts with the defensive line. The unit controls the line of scrimmage, not even allowing short gains by runners while getting to the quarterback at a high rate. Virginia Tech's offensive line is slightly above average, but will be overmatched. Tech will require good play calling and schematic advantages to avoid negative plays.

Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Hokie offense versus the Eagle defense:

The Hokie offense isn't particularly good (or to be fair, bad) at any one metric, but they face an Eagle defense that is particularly good at all of them. There is no one area where the offense will play strength-on-weakness, as BC's defense has few statistical weakness.

The FEI No. 61 Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:

1. Akron
2. Duke
3. Louisiana-Lafayette

The FEI No. 5 Boston College defense is closest in personality to:

1. Alabama
2. Boise State
3. Ohio State

Gulp.

When Boston College Has the Ball

Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:

The Eagles, despite being a weak offense, are surprisingly okay in the run game and any success will likely come on the ground. They have a tendency to dig themselves into a hole on standard downs, but then do an okay job of recovering.

Offensive and defensive line performance are again compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:

Unlike Duke, Boston College provides more opportunity for sacks and the Eagles' offensive line gets little push. Stuff Rate, which measures the percentage of the time the team rushes for negative or no yardage, is particularly weak and suggests the Hokies will get some TFL.

As for personality traits:

Oof. The Eagle offense also lacks strength-on-weakness opportunities, but in this case due to not having any strengths.

The FEI No. 69 Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:

1. BYU
2. South Florida
3. Nebraska

The FEI No. 121 Boston College offense is closest in personality to:

1. Kent State
2. Hawaii
3. Tulane

Special Teams

First we look at the Hokies' kicking units:

Virginia Tech must have faced some exceptional punting teams thus far to have such a high punt return rating: Greg Stroman has the second lowest punt return average in the country among qualified returners on cfbstats.com. That said, put together, the Hokies are a surprisingly strong special teams unit.

When the Eagles kick:

Football Outsiders does not go into detail on how overall special teams efficiency is weighted and calculated, but has the Eagles as the 126th (out of 128) unit in the country. Presumably field goals hold significant weight as they have the highest point implication, and Boston College has thus far been poor at kicking them.

Who To Watch Out For

And they're not all on the defense!:

1. Freshman QB Jeff Smith (concussed against Louisville last week) is a runner (sigh), averaging 6 YPC. Certainly he and the BC coaching staff have noticed that Virginia Tech struggles with those.
2. Senior LB Stephen Daniels is a monster at getting behind the line of scrimmage with 12.5 TFL including 5 sacks, and leads the team with nearly 12% of total team tackles.
3. Whoever takes field goal attempts from among the three who have thus far — likely freshman Colton Lichtenberg — as a missed field goal, or more, could be the difference in this game

Statistical Key to the Game

This is a difficult game to project because Boston College is so good on defense and so bad on offense. In digging through their advanced statistical profile on Football Study Hall, I found one weakness in the defense — explosive rushing. If the Hokies can take advantage, they can score enough points to win. My statistical key to the game will be the percentage of Virginia Tech runs that gain 10 yards or more. If that hits 25% or more things are looking great.

Statistical Prediction

Statistically, Virginia Tech is projected to gain 160 yards passing and 241 yards rushing, totals I would readily take against such a tough defense. Boston College projects to 211 yards rushing and 58 yards passing, a number that is almost comical and surely will be broken.

I think the return of Michael Brewer and different game plan last week against Duke — especially the use of TE's — will make it harder for the Eagles to prepare. Against an aggressive defense that will likely win the line of scrimmage, quick routes will be key and the same tight end play will give the Hokies an advantage. I also think Travon McMillian gets a couple of big gains that counter a frustrating day of getting stuffed. As usual the Boston College offense will look better than it is against the Hokies' defense, but it won't be enough; special teams especially can play a big part in this game and those lean heavily in Tech's favor.

Virginia Tech 17, Boston College 13

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.