Halfwits and Wagers Knows What Time It Is

It's chop block o'clock!

It's Georgia Tech week, which means a ton of uncalled low blocks and the fastest game you'll watch all season. Thanks to the blissful time where football and basketball intersect, Pierson and I provide a limited gambling selection this week.

Don't blame us, blame Buzzketball (and TKP's Buzzketball season preview which you should read immediately after this).

On to the (fake) lines!

Over/Under: 6.5 times the announcers bring up the "chess match between Bud Foster and Paul Johnson."

Brian: Easy over. You see, Paul Johnson runs a very unique offensive scheme. It's not the triple option, but it's similar (it's totally the triple option and all of you Yellow Jacket nerds can fight me on it.) Bud Foster runs a very unique defensive scheme, and had been doing especially weird defensive things against Georgia Tech since Johnson's arrival.

One coach who's good at something against a different coach good at the opposite thing? Call Paul McCartney, because we're breaking out the ebony and ivory everyone!

(I know, I'm sorry.)

It is ridiculous, though. If you put Paul Johnson and Bud Foster in front of an actual chess board and told them to play, they would just use all 32 pieces to diagram formations.

Pierson: Over. If you've watched this game on television before, you've heard it a thousand times. They utter the phrase so often you can't even look at a chess board for a month after Bud has his way with CPJ. Fun Fact: Bud Foster and Paul Johnson invented the game of chess with the sole purpose of providing boorish color commentators with something "insightful" to say one day a year. With the game being played on a Saturday, I guess we're all forced to wait another year for Jesse Palmer's Emmy winning performance.

Who leads the team in rushing yards: Travon McMillian (EVEN), Jerod Evans (3-1), or anyone else in the field (7-1)

Brian: I would never gamble on this, simply because I think McMillian's the guy. The back has really picked things up over the last half of the year, and now he's up against a defense giving up nearly five yards a run? Sign me up for the sophomore's third game over the century mark this season.

One thing along these lines that's concerning, however? This stat:

Concerning, particularly with a mobile QB: Va Tech is converting just 46.3% of third-and-short plays, 125th out of 128 FBS teams.— David Hale (@DavidHaleESPN) November 10, 2016

It's not a great sign this is happening with both an established running back and a mobile quarterback the size of your average refrigerator. Think about what an already explosive offense could do with better consistency in situations like that. It could be the difference between a really good offense and an elite one. This is also why I have faith in McMillian. If he can continue to add strength and run through tackles like this, the team's improvement will follow.

Pierson: Ooooh this one is interesting. The degenerate in me wants to take the field (where's the fun in taking Travon with those odds?), but Evans' recent play in the run game is making me think about this. Jerod has led the Hokies in rushing each of the last two weeks and the only person not named Jerod or Travon to lead the team on the ground was Marshawn Williams back in Week 3 against Boston College. Let's face it, the run game has been led by Evans and McMillian all year long (as it should be). The odds of that suddenly changing are solely reliant on an injury (please no) or someone busting a long run.

I like the odds on the field, but 3-1 odds on Jerod feels like the smart man's bet. I'm taking QB1.

Over/Under 405 yards for Virginia Tech

Brian: Over, but there's a reason this line is so low. With the Hokies' struggles at defensive end, and the absences of Terrell Edmunds for a half, the Yellow Jackets could move the ball effectively. And if they move the ball relatively well, it means they'll eat clock and give fewer opportunities for Jerod Evans and the offense to gain yards of their own. Add to the fact that Georgia Tech can have fumble problems at times, the Hokies could work with a short field or two, they could see a smaller than average showing. I'll still take the over, because the Jackets' defense has struggled throughout the year, but there are multiple situations where it doesn't happen.

Pierson: Over. Georgia Tech's defense sucks

Okay, that's a little extreme. But if you remove home games against Mercer and Georgia Southern, the Bees are surrendering nearly 428 yards of total offense per game. They gave up 442 yards to Clemson; 407 to Pitt; 559 to Duke; and 636 to UNC. Meanwhile, the Tech offense has gained 458 yards (Liberty) or more in Lane Stadium and logged a season low 399 yards last weekend at Duke. Not too shabby. GT has struggled all year to contain multi-dimensional offenses, which puts the Hokies in a position to succeed. 405 yards seems easily attainable to me.

The Hokies only had 264 yards in the hurricane game at UNC? Well if Tar Heels conveniently discount that game to state their case, then I might as well do the same here.

Over/Under: 350 yards for Georgia Tech

Brian: Georgia Tech averages just over 400 yards a game, but has struggled mightily against the Hokies over the last five years. Here's their yardage output since 2011:

• 2015: 258
• 2014: 375
• 2013: 273
• 2012: 288
• 2011: 340

Bud Foster has certainly done his job well against the Jackets. But again, play at defensive end and rover are key against the option. French did a great job detailing the less-than-stellar performance the ends had against Duke. Edmunds is out for a half. If there's ever a time for Georgia Tech to take advantage of the Hokies, it very well may be this year.

(Given all that, I'll take history and say under.)

Pierson: Under. Bud Foster's defense is awesome.

That is all.

Matchup Over/Under: 55

Brian: I'll go under, again due to pure time of possession. I don't foresee Georgia Tech lighting up the scoreboard, but they'll keep the ball long enough to prevent the Hokies from dominating. Think along the lines of a 24-17 type game.

Pierson: These two teams combine to average 57 points per game against Power 5 schools. As much as I want to call on historical scoring data, I have to ignore it because the Hokies' offense is more potent than ever and the Bees' offense is more impotent that an old...you get the idea.

Here's an interesting tidbit: Every Georgia Tech game has totaled more than 55 points since Week 4 against Clemson (33 total points). Go figure. I'll take the over because I believe in the Hokies' offense.

Spread: Virginia Tech (-14)

Brian: Over the last eight years, this game has had an average margin of victory of 5 points for either team. It won't make sense, considering the Hokies look like the significantly better team, but I'd seriously take the Yellow Jackets to cover. It's a lot of points, and considering the tight contests Tech's seen over the last two weeks on top of the history of the series, I'll expect it to be tight again.

Pierson: Traditionally, this matchup produces tight scoring margins. 3 out of the last 4 games had a margin of 3 points or less, and only one game (2011) in the last 8 years was won by more than a touchdown. The talent level at Georgia Tech is the lowest we have seen since Paul Johnson took over a young program on NCAA probation in 2008 (that team still finished 9-4 but lost the Coastal Division tie-breaker to the Good Guys). The talent they do have is either hurt, suspended, or surrounded by inexperienced guys (probably) playing hurt.

Conventional wisdom tells me that the chess match (DRINK!) will keep this game close. But the talent chasm separating these two Techs makes this spread feel right. A two touchdown victory against CPJ and the Bees would be oh so sweet. I'm taking the Hokies and laying the points because "Chess Match" rearranged spells, "Techs Chasm." Boom. Anagrammed.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.