Halfwits and Wagers Was Ready to Get Wet

After a Hurricane-induced hiatus, Halfwits returns for another week of impeccable gambling advice.

It's officially 757 week, the week where Virginia Tech plays in an impressively large high school football stadium against an 0-3 Conference USA team in the Commonwealth's most fertile recruiting grounds.

What could possibly go wrong?

To ease our minds from nightmarish visions of losing to Old Dominion at, well, anything, let's take a quick glance at the Halfwits & Wagers 2018 scoreboard:

Brian's Record: 3-12

Joey's Record: 11-4

Not much else to add, so on to the lines!

Over/Under: 250 passing yards for Josh Jackson

Brian: The Monarchs are 108th in the country in passing yards allowed so far this season. They've surrendered 855 yards in three games (that would be 285 per contest, for the liberal arts majors out there), and that's come against the likes of Liberty, FIU, and Charlotte. They've given up an average of 8.4 yards per attempt, nine touchdowns and have only come away with one interception.

In case you just skimmed that whole paragraph, let me summarize. ODU is bad at defense.

Now I know what you're thinking, Jackson hasn't passed for more than 217 yards in either game so far. Justin Fuente and Brad Cornelsen seem intent on establishing a consistent ground game with their group of strong as hell offensive linemen. Plus, if the Hokies steamroll ODU like we think they will, they might not leave their starting quarterback in for longer than a half. I hear that. But let me remind you of one thing.

When Fuente sees a weakness, he attacks it. Jackson scorched ECU through the air last year, and did pretty well against the Monarchs the next week (20-30, 298 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT). I'm going to smash that over button.

Joey: Brian already broke down the numbers around ODU being miserable, so I'll skip straight to the punchline. This game is getting William & Mary ugly, and it's gonna happen quickly.

While that may suggest the over as the obvious bet, it wouldn't shock me if Jackson doesn't take a snap in the second half with a road trip to vaunted Wallace Wade Stadium lurking in the shadows for the Hokies. I'll roll the dice and take the under.

Over/Under: 3.5 sacks for the Virginia Tech defense

Brian: Tech picked up just one sack against the Tribe two weeks ago, and seemed content to not pick up first downs as long as it meant that Houshun Gaines and Trevon Hill didn't decapitate their quarterback.

And to their credit, ODU's only given up four sacks in three games thus far (for reference, Florida State has given up 10). Last year, the Hokies only brought down Monarch QB Steven Williams once. And so even though Ricky Walker is seemingly healthy, and the starting ends seem like they're on a whole other planet (we need to give them a nickname, right? How do we feel about The Smash Brothers? I'll workshop it.), I'm going to take the under here. Williams will run for his life, but he'll get out of dodge most of the time.

Joey: The Hokies have six sacks on the year, five of them coming against the lethally simple, impressively porous Florida State offensive line that is trying their darndest to just #DoSomething (#DoAnything?).

(Side-note: I regrettably can't take this as my lock of the week because that's reserved for our fine military institutions, but I love Northern Illinois catching 10 points against the 'Noles this weekend. Buy a half-point to 10.5 and Florida State has to score two (2) touchdowns in sixty (60) minutes for you to even sniff losing. That's what we like to call free money.)

Getting back on topic, a healthy Ricky Walker coupled with Trevon Hill and Houshun Gaines patrolling the perimeter should lead to a field day in the Monarch backfield Saturday afternoon. While Steven Williams' shiftiness will keep the sack total in check, I like the Hokies to sneak past 3.5 late to hit the over.

True/False: Stephen Peoples leads the team in rushing

Brian: Who the hell knows. Two weeks ago I was all in on Deshawn McClease, then he and his skinny arms fumble early in the game and was sent to Fuente's pit of misery for a quarter. Peoples looked good in McClease's stead, but still didn't lead the team in rushing—in fact he didn't even finish second.

Terius Wheatley broke off 58 yards on seven impressive carries, only to be outdone by Hendon Hooker shifting into third gear on his 69-yard touchdown scamper (the #nicest debut of any player in the history of sports?)

But here's the thing that concerns me. Against William and Mary, Tech split 46 attempts among 10 players including quarterbacks and receivers. If we're just playing the odds here, I'll take the field rather than a single back. False.

Joey: With McClease stuck in adult timeout, Peoples looked stunningly dynamic in Week 2 against an overwhelmed William & Mary defense. Building off the well overused "STEVEN PEOPLES RUNS LIKE A BOWLING BALL" analogy, watching Peoples make defenders (with an 'S'!) miss was like seeing a decent-but-forever-limited bowler finally learn how to put spin on the ball. Kidding aside (and I do love Steven Peoples), the Hokies backfield is simply too crowded to take anything but the field here. False.

P.S. This is the first time all season that I've read Brian's pick and thought, "Well, that's logical." I think he's finally tired of getting spanked.

True/False: Larry Fedora is still coaching UNC in November

Brian: True. They don't have the money to fire him, and even if they did, who would they ask to coach the rest of the way? The coordinator of a defense that just gave up 41 to ECU? Or the guy running the trash fire of an offense?

(Actually, trash fire is probably too generous, because at least those are capable of getting hot.)

Nope, the Heels are stuck with the man who has held them hostage since the day he was hired. Mississippi State, LSU (lololol, okay), and Tennessee. Think Larry has a type?

Joey: This is a tough one. I fully expect UNC to be 1-6 entering November, their sole win likely coming against the 'Hoos on October 27th (and if not Virginia, this weekend against the Fighting Narduzzis is their second best shot). Is that prolonged ineptitude enough to fire Fedora, a man who not too long ago appeared to have UNC primed to be a consistent presence atop the Coastal Division?

Not quite. As sad is it makes me, I think Fedora squeaks out another three-win year in Chapel Hill before riding off into the sunset to throw around some weights at your nearest Planet Fitness.

(I thought about Gold's Gym, but the mental image of Larry "CTE Doesn't Exist" Fedora grunting loudly mid-deadlift at a Planet Fitness was simply too much to pass up.)

UVA (-5) vs. Louisville

Brian: Wait. Is Virginia kind of...decent?

And Louisville is not decent. Not in the slightest. Like, "struggled for a half against Indiana State" not decent, and "needed an epic comeback to beat Western Kentucky" not decent.

But here's the deal. I'm not going to bet this game in real life, because I think UVA will probably cover. But we haven't seen them beat a power five team since November 4th of last year, so why would I just assume that they'll be able to do it now? So even though all logic and statistics say to pick the Cavaliers, I'll take Louisville +5 until I've seen this iteration of Wahoo do anything of consequence.

Joey: I'll be honest, I did a double take when I saw this line come out. Part of my surprise at seeing Virginia -5 was my dumb brain thinking the game was in Louisville, but that considered, I'm still a bit shocked to see Bronco Mendenhall favored against Bobby Petrino in anything remotely athletically related.

My actual pick here is to tease Louisville +11 with Georgia - 8 (at Missouri), because if I know just two things about college football in 2018, I know:

1) Virginia doesn't beat real football teams by double-digits, ever.
2) Nick Saban's largest adult son continues to destroy mediocre SEC football programs.

Forced to bet the actual line, I'll be boring and take Louisville +5.

Alabama (-27) vs. Texas A&M

Brian: In college I had a buddy who did really well for himself every weekend. He was charming, pretty good looking, and had the knack for saying the right thing at the right time. Needless to say, those three things went a long way with the ladies at TOTS circa 2012.

But then one summer, my friend stopped drinking beer. And showed up the next semester with a six-pack of abs that made him look half-man, half-Greek statue. If it wasn't fair before, it was certainly less so after that.

What I'm saying is that Tua Tagovailoa is Alabama's six-pack.

They already beat the brakes off the rest of the country, just off of sheer talent. But remember when they were winning national titles with the likes of Greg McElroy, A.J. McCarron, and squints Jake Coker? And remember when we said things like 'at least they don't have a guy like Deshaun Watson or Johnny Manziel.'

Well he's here now. And Saban's ready to march through the rest of the south and burn everything to the ground. I'm taking Bama until proven otherwise.

Joey: I took Ole Miss +22.5 last week. Not something I'm proud of, probably not the smartest move, but 22.5 was a preposterous amount of points to spot a legitimately good offense at home in primetime.

Ole Miss proceeded to score on the very first play. Nick Saban was ready to explode. I had an easy winner.

Then Alabama got the football.

What happened next was borderline inhumane to the good people of Oxford, Mississippi. Make no mistake, 'Bama could have scored 100 without blinking on Saturday night, and I would have been stuck twiddling my thumbs waiting for Swag Kelly to stroll in half-drunk* from the Grove to pull off the backdoor cover.

Long story short, this line seems way too high. It's not. Alabama is not fair.

Roll Tide.

*Piss drunk.

The Joey Coogan Memorial "Navy Hits the Over" Lock of the Week

Brian: Remember when we covered how bad UNC was? They're not only coming off of an awful loss to ECU, but they'll also be rusty after having their game against UCF Florence'd. Last week, Pitt shut down Georgia Tech and raced out to a 24-6 lead before beating the Jackets 24-19 (a score that was much closer than the actual game.)

And now, the Panthers and the feisty Kenny Pickett are coming into Chapel Hill, favored by only 3.5 points? Even though Chazz Surratt and the rest of Carolina's suspended players aren't coming back until next week? There's no such thing as a home field advantage in Kenan Stadium.

Lock up the Narduzzis.

Joey: With Hurricane Florence wreaking havoc on Week 3 of Halfwits*, it's been a while since we've checked in on Navy overs. For those following along at home, we're 1-1 on the year with a DNB (did not bet) last week because I couldn't find a book to take money on the Navy total against a feisty Lehigh squad. That said, we're back with a vengeance with Navy vs. SMU this weekend, a matchup that blessed us with 83 points last November.

Total is 64, Navy's good for 50. Over.

*In case anyone is actually concerned, I live in NOVA and Brian lives in Texas. In other words, we took the week off to stand in solidarity with our Pirate brethren.

Virginia Tech-Old Dominion Over/Under: 51.5

Brian: Okay, let's work off the assumption that Tech pitches a shutout (only because they did it last year, nothing else). That means they'd have to score at least 52 points on the road, in front of a very pro-Hokie crowd, against a team who gave up 52 to Liberty in week one. Wait, that sounds way more realistic than it was supposed to. And now think of the bust in coverage that's bound to happen with Tech's young back seven (they've given up huge gainers to both FSU and W&M), and now we're looking at a score like 52-10. It's the over, and it's easy.

Joey: I'm tempted to run back the "big underdog and over" bet after it worked like a charm against William & Mary, but I'm getting greedy this week. Old Dominion is treading water, the Hokies are well-rested, and a road game in the 757 should essentially be a home game for the good guys. I wouldn't be shocked if Tech hits 50 by themselves, so give me the over.

Spread: Virginia Tech (-27.5)

Brian: The only reason I can figure this line being so low is that Vegas is thinking Tech could be a little rusty after the unexpected week off. Even if they have a slow first quarter, I think Jackson spreads the ball around, gets a few big plays from Hazelton and Grimsley, and cover this number with relative ease.

But of course I'm 3-12, so what the hell do I know.

Joey: At the danger of sounding like a blowhard, Tech by four touchdowns should be a no-brainer. Don't forget, this is the same Old Dominion team that lost to Liberty 52-10 and then followed it up with losses to FIU and Charlotte.

Tech -27.5.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.

Comments

This right here, ladies and gentlemen, is grade-A shit

If a tree falls in Scott Stadium does it make a sound?

As in shit or da shit?

Excellent as always boys

I can imagine no more rewarding a career. And any man who may be asked in this century what he did to make his life worthwhile, I think can respond with a good deal of pride and satisfaction:
“I served in the United States Navy"

KCCO

We need to beat the spread, sizable, and not sustain injuries. That would have serious impact just for a win against a weak opponent. This needs to be a tune up game with good playing time for the depth chart.

Justin Fuente's Pit of Misery! Dilly dilly!

“Stats are for losers.” -Mel Kiper Jr.

tease Louisville +11 with Georgia - 8 (at Missouri),

I don't bet on sports beyond a $1 with an alum of another school who is a good friend. What does this mean?

That means he's betting that Louisville can keep the game within 11 points and that UGA will win by at least 8.

“Stats are for losers.” -Mel Kiper Jr.

Basically, a teaser is a parlay where you bet multiple games and get 6 points on each side/total that you take. The catch is that you have to win each (modified) bet to win the teaser. Depending on how many games you include, your payout odds increase much like a parlay would.

In short, NFL teasers are the shit.

Tnanks to both of you.

So.. Betting CFB isn't tough enough, now we have to add a turbo charger to the process?

"I just wanna make bank, bro. I want to get ass!" -Brennan

“Stats are for losers.” -Mel Kiper Jr.

I'm not going to lie, this has the feeling of a game where we are capable of hitting the O/U over in the first half all on our own. ODU's defense is straight up trash.

Therefore, we're probably going to win this by some score of like 34-10 with the majority of the points coming in the second half..

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

Liberty beat this team by 42, if we don't cover the 52 over/under I will be very disappointed. Lets take over the 757 this weekend!!

I don't know what a Hokie is but God is one of them (excluding JMU/ODU)- Lee Corso

Lets take the over the on 757 this weekend!!

ftfy

Chem PhD '16

I love Northern Illinois catching 10 points against the 'Noles this weekend. Buy a half-point to 10.5 and Florida State has to score two (2) touchdowns in sixty (60) minutes for you to even sniff losing. That's what we like to call free money.

Love this line!

Hokie in West Africa...sadly, I can't jump up and down hard enough for it to be felt in Lane

Frida State

...

(That's not a typo. Florida State is sans OL. Don't @ me.)

Wonderful.

Also, remind me to never piss off "FrankDNole", whoever that is.

And finally, this gem was found in the comments:

NIU: 3
FSU: 7i
FSU's points are imaginary.

Hang 60 on the Monarchs and don't let the starters play longer than a half, then I'll be happy

I think the better question is whether or not our Hooker will go for more than 69 on the ground this week

"Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s ass. I’ve been a horse’s ass for a little while." - Roy Halladay

Will this be the game where we see all the QBs for more than a series or 2? I think that just might tease us too much.

I'm not sold on Alabama being the Death Star (sans ventilation shaft). I know they crushed Louisville and Ole MIss, but both of those teams really, really, REALLY suck this year. You guys obviously know that UVa is favored over the Cards this weekend.

I like the Aggies and points in that one.

Leonard. Duh.

This is probably the responsible way to view Bama/Tua/the line. But if I was responsible, how would I have used my "Tua is a sick set of abs" metaphor?

Point taken.

And... I knew a guy like that back in college, except that he had the abs, and he drank the beer.

Leonard. Duh.

I'm not sold on Alabama being the Death Star (sans ventilation shaft).

They are, ventilation shaft included. However, it is Nick Saban's butthole, and for all intents and purposes it is permanently sealed shut due to being clogged by years and years of oatmeal cream pies.

That and the fact that part of "The Process" is to have a permanently clenched sphincter. Or maybe the oatmeal creme pies were what made him create the process due to his closed butthole. This is FifthFuller territory here and I just don't have the "research know-how" (creativity) to get to the bottom of this "truth" (absurd fabrication).

"That move was slicker than a peeled onion in a bowl of snot." -Mike Burnop

I will always laugh at a Nick Saban/Debbiecake joke.

My coworker asked who we were playing this week. I said Old Dominion. His response was, "A bye week. Cool."

One of my sisters was talking to me about football not too long ago and asked "Who is B.Y.E.? Its a home game but no time yet. Should I go.. Will that be a good game.?"

Same sister that I told to face her tired rotated and she said "I should be ok, I mean they rotate while the car is moving, dont they?"

She graduated with honors from Florida State....And yes, these are 100% true, sadly.

Warning- Filter lost.

"Look at this... This is just spectacular.... These people are losing their minds"

FREE THE "STICK IT IN" CHANT!!!

Book sense and common sense are two different things.

Very true. But I feel like someone who is that book smart, ought to have an acceptable level of common sense....

Warning- Filter lost.

"Look at this... This is just spectacular.... These people are losing their minds"

FREE THE "STICK IT IN" CHANT!!!

This reminds me of a story about my sister.

My first car was a large station wagon (for the youngsters out there who don't know what that is, google it). Very heavy car. I was visiting a friend after a snow storm (school was closed), and she was along for the ride. Car got stuck in the snow, so I put her behind the wheel (she had her license) and told her she was going to have to rock the car a bit (meaning move rapidly from F to R and back repeatedly) to see if we could get it moving, and I'd push. So she started forward no moving, and I'm wondering why she isn't shifting into R to try to rock the car. I look up, and she's rocking in the seat like it was the rocking chair on my grandma's front porch. Unfortunately before the days of the interwebs and youtube, or it would have been immortalized forever.

Take the shortest route to the ball and arrive in bad humor.

As much as I hate to say it, I think the line for UVA-Louisville is perfectly reasonable. UVA has played a GOOD Louisville close in the recent past, so I don't see any reason why a slightly better (debatable) UVA team can't take down a BAD Louisville team. Hope I'm wrong.

"What kind of person would throw away a perfectly good dog?"

starting ends seem like they're on a whole other planet (we need to give them a nickname, right?

HillGaines

That one sack against W&M was a doozy though, Gaines lit up Mitchell from the blind side.

Also, having your third string QB lead the team in rushing and only on 1 carry, what a weird box score.

It's like an NFL preseason game where the projected starters play 2 or 3 series max.

For funzies, I put $1 on the Navy over. At the time of my bet it was 61.5. At game time, it was 58. Final score? 31-30. Ugh

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

I got 59.5. 2-1!

Nice. Missing the navy over by half a point was a microcosm of my betting weekend overall. Only hits were NCSU -5 and the Vt over. Oh yeah I also went 7/8 on an 8-leg parley (thanks a lot OKSU).

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

I also had Navy -6. When SMU had the ball down 30-23 in OT, I was convinced they were gonna score, go for two, not get it, and lose 30-29. Would have been quite literally the worst double beat of all time.