Just because Ive heard a lot of people say "I dont like this guy hes just an 'x' or we cant bring this guy in hes 'y' or I love this guy hes a homerun hire" etc.
I wanted to see how our offensive analytics from broad to some deep analytics over the last couple of years stacked up with some of the names Ive read as potential coaches
Datapoints:
*All averages are based solely on the time the coaces were there. I just ran it through 2016 when Fuente started, but obviously not all the coaches have been there that time * denotes years coaches were not the head coach at that school
Points per Game - obvious
20+ Gain Per Game - The number of plays that go for over 20+ yards
10+ Gain per Game - The number of plays that go over 10+ yards
Yards per Game - obvious
3rd Down Efficiency - obvious
Red Zone Offense - Touchdowns/Field goals as a percent of Red Zone appearances
Games under 30 Pts - The number of games in a season where the team scored less than 30 points
Dave Clawson
| Team | Stat | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | Avg | Avg Rank | Max | Max Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake | Points Per Game | 44.7 | 36 | 31.8 | 32.8 | 35.3 | 20.4 | 33.5 | 3 | 44.7 | 1 |
| Wake | 20+ Gain Per Game | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 2 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Wake | 10+ Gain Per Game | 16.2 | 15.1 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 16.2 | 11.3 | 14.8 | 5 | 16.2 | 5 |
| Wake | Yards per Game | 498.4 | 444.4 | 464 | 449.8 | 465.8 | 311.5 | 439.0 | 3 | 498.4 | 1 |
| Wake | 3rd Down Efficiency | 50.9 | 40 | 47 | 41.9 | 39.5 | 34.8 | 42.4 | 4 | 50.9 | 2 |
| Wake | Red Zone Offense | 93 | 94 | 91 | 87 | 94 | 85 | 90.7 | 1 | 94.0 | 1 |
| Wake | Games under 30 Pts | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 5.2 | 2 | 10.0 | 4 |
Jamey Chadwell
| Team | Stat | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018* | 2017* | 2016* | Avg | Avg Rank | Max | Max Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal | Points Per Game | 42.3 | 37.2 | 30.3 | 26.7 | 23.7 | 36.6 | 1 | 42.3 | 2 | |
| Coastal | 20+ Gain Per Game | 6.2 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3 | 6.2 | 1 | |
| Coastal | 10+ Gain Per Game | 17.8 | 16.5 | 12.5 | 14.3 | 13.1 | 15.6 | 1 | 17.8 | 3 | |
| Coastal | Yards per Game | 492.8 | 449.8 | 393.8 | 379.3 | 345.3 | 445.5 | 1 | 492.8 | 3 | |
| Coastal | 3rd Down Efficiency | 55.9 | 52.4 | 40.7 | 41.9 | 36 | 49.7 | 1 | 55.9 | 1 | |
| Coastal | Red Zone Offense | 88 | 86 | 78 | 88 | 84 | 84.0 | 4 | 88.0 | 3 | |
| Coastal | Games under 30 Pts | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 4.3 | 1 | 7.0 | 1 |
Luke Fickell
| Team | Stat | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016* | Avg | Avg Rank | Max | Max Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinatti | Points Per Game | 39.2 | 37.5 | 29.6 | 34.9 | 20.9 | 19.3 | 32.4 | 4 | 39.2 | 3 |
| Cincinatti | 20+ Gain Per Game | 5.3 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 5 | 5.7 | 4 |
| Cincinatti | 10+ Gain Per Game | 13.8 | 16.1 | 13.7 | 18 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 15.0 | 3 | 18.0 | 2 |
| Cincinatti | Yards per Game | 417.7 | 451 | 390.3 | 458.5 | 351.8 | 374.1 | 413.9 | 4 | 458.5 | 4 |
| Cincinatti | 3rd Down Efficiency | 44.3 | 45.5 | 43 | 48.2 | 37.8 | 37.9 | 43.8 | 2 | 48.2 | 3 |
| Cincinatti | Red Zone Offense | 86 | 78 | 83 | 77 | 71 | 82 | 79.0 | 5 | 86.0 | 5 |
| Cincinatti | Games under 30 Pts | 3 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 6.2 | 5 | 11.0 | 5 |
Billy Napier
| Team | Stat | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017* | 2016* | Avg | Avg Rank | Max | Max Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana | Points Per Game | 31.2 | 33.6 | 37.9 | 31.9 | 28.2 | 23.6 | 33.7 | 2 | 37.9 | 4 |
| Louisiana | 20+ Gain Per Game | 5 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 1 | 5.9 | 3 |
| Louisiana | 10+ Gain Per Game | 14.3 | 15.2 | 18.1 | 13.9 | 15.4 | 13.2 | 15.4 | 2 | 18.1 | 1 |
| Louisiana | Yards per Game | 420.1 | 421.5 | 494.1 | 424.4 | 398.5 | 356.5 | 440.0 | 2 | 494.1 | 2 |
| Louisiana | 3rd Down Efficiency | 37.9 | 42.8 | 47.6 | 47 | 35.8 | 37.4 | 43.8 | 2 | 47.6 | 4 |
| Louisiana | Red Zone Offense | 82 | 81 | 87 | 88 | 84 | 86 | 84.5 | 3 | 88.0 | 3 |
| Louisiana | Games under 30 Pts | 6 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 5.3 | 3 | 7.0 | 1 |
Virginia Tech
| Team | Stat | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | Avg | Avg Rank | Max | Max Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VT | Points Per Game | 24.3 | 31.1 | 30.7 | 29.8 | 28.2 | 34.9 | 29.8 | 5 | 34.9 | 5 |
| VT | 20+ Gain Per Game | 4.8 | 5.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4 | 5.5 | 5 |
| VT | 10+ Gain Per Game | 13.7 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 15.8 | 14.7 | 16.4 | 14.9 | 4 | 16.4 | 4 |
| VT | Yards per Game | 360.7 | 440.7 | 385.2 | 428.2 | 412.8 | 444.9 | 412.1 | 5 | 444.9 | 5 |
| VT | 3rd Down Efficiency | 42.3 | 38.1 | 38.3 | 37.3 | 40.8 | 42.5 | 39.9 | 5 | 42.5 | 5 |
| VT | Red Zone Offense | 78 | 83 | 94 | 88 | 78 | 90 | 85.2 | 2 | 94.0 | 1 |
| VT | Games under 30 Pts | 7 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 6.0 | 4 | 9.0 | 3 |
Comments
Feel free to add any other candidates - any other data points.
Just first thoughts:
Our offense relative to what people would call 'explosive' offenses (or even good offenses) we lacked - heavily. Our floor was lower than these other candidates and our ceiling was much lower than where these other staffs have performed.
Our offense didnt pass the eye test and now it shows why - 3rd down efficiency was really poor.
Second thought:
Clawson has had a really consistent high powered offense
-all of the other candidates have a much higher offensive ceiling than weve seen in Blacksburg, so Im excited about that.
Those numbers have me really wanting Chadwell or Clawson. Chadwell's numbers basically improved every year. His red zone offense was the weakest, and I think the number of great O line potentials that go to P5 schools vastly out numbers the ones willing to go G5.
At the same time, he put those numbers up against mostly Sun belt defenses.
Impressive... but might be good to temper your expectations a bit.
Its hard to get an apple comparison for both Chadwell and Napier, and to a lesser extent Fickell -
He did it against sun belt defenses - with sun belt players. Whos to say either couldnt put up those numbers against ACC defenses with ACC players. You could look at how theyve done against Power 5, but thats not really fair, because they dont necessarily have a power 5 roster...
That being said, if you look at FEI which takes into account strength of schedule and opponent:
2021 OFEI Rank:
Wake Forest - 4
Coastal Carolina - 18
Cincinnati - 31
Louisiana - 39
Virginia Tech - 72
2020 OFEI Rank:
Coastal Carolina - 9
Louisiana - 25
Wake Forest - 33
Virginia Tech - 35
Cincinnati - 37
2019 OFEI Rank:
Louisiana - 20
Virginia Tech - 54
Wake Forest - 55
Cincinnati - 56
Coastal Carolina - 89
2018 OFEI Rank:
Louisiana - 36
Virginia Tech - 56
Cincinnati - 61
Wake Forest - 63
Coastal* - 88
2017 OFEI Rank:
Wake Forest - 21
Virginia Tech - 52
Cincinnati - 86
Louisiana* - 88
Coastal* - 93
2016 OFEI Rank:
Virginia Tech - 48
Wake Forest - 99
Cincinnati* - 107
Louisiana* - 123
Point being -
All other coaching staff's offenses showed continued improvement across all metrics...
..except one.
{hint: you might want to spend some time considering defensive coaches}