In the midst of last night's disappointment, there have been a lot of comments (here, on twitter, etc) that say something to the effect of "Shane Beamer and Mel Tucker won in year 1, why can't we?"
I wanted to take a look at some recent hires, and see if coaches (a) actually are turning programs around quickly, and (b) how bare the cupboard is when they arrive. For each coach, I listed:
- The 247 rank of their first 'partial' class (when a coach is hired in November/December, the previous coach recruited most of the players, and the new coach has to basically convince everyone to stay, hence the term 'partial')
- The 247 Team Rank for the first season they coached - this includes all talent on the roster; it include recruits/transfers in, and excludes transfers out
- The 247 rank of the coach's first full class
I'm happy to expand this list of coaches, but these were names that came to mind.
Coach | Date Hired | First Partial Class | 247 Team Talent Score (year 1) | First Full class | Year 1 Record | Year 1 SP+ Ranking |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Justin Fuente (Virginia Tech) | Nov-2015 | 42 | 36 | 26 | 10-4 | 22 |
Matt Campbell (Iowa State) | Nov-2015 | 55 | 56 | 52 | 3-9 | 66 |
Bronco Mendenhall (UVA) | Dec-2015 | 63 | 42 | 58 | 2-10 | 83 |
Tom Herman (Texas) | Nov-2016 | 25 | 13 | 3 | 7-6 | 30 |
Matt Rhule (Baylor) | Dec-2016 | 40 | 35 | 29 | 1-11 | 76 |
PJ Fleck (Minnesota) | Jan-2017 | 38 | 48 | 45 | 5-7 | 45 |
Chip Kelly (at UCLA) | Nov-2017 | 19 | 19 | 40 | 3-9 | 76 |
Scott Frost (Nebraska) | Dec-2017 | 23 | 26 | 17 | 4-8 | 49 |
Mack Brown (UNC) | Nov-2018 | 30 | 28 | 14 | 7-6 | 30 |
Greg Schiano (Rutgers, second time) | Dec-2019 | 60 | 61 | 39 | 3-6 | 101 |
Sam Pittman | Dec-2019 | 29 | 29 | 25 | 3-7 | 57 |
Mel Tucker (Michigan State) | Feb-2020 | N/A | 35 | 23 | 2-5 (COVID) | 65 |
Shane Beamer | Dec-2020 | 79 | 22 | 24 | 7-6 | 84 |
Brent Pry | Dec-2021 | 36 | 52 | 40 (in progress) | 0-1 (so far) | PRESEASON PREDICTION: 61 |
Tony Elliott | Dec-2021 | 65 | 59 | 64 | 1-0 | PRESEASON PREDICTION: 65 |
Takeaways:
- Most coaches don't turn things around in year 1. Everyone talks about Mel Tucker, but the media/the internet largely ignore his first season (I'm sure because it was a weird covid year, but it wasn't good)
- Lots of talk about Shane - dude had way more talent on his first roster than Pry does. No way to ignore it.
- The numbers can't account for scheme change (or lack thereof) - switching from zone blocking to man? Switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3? This is going to slow your progress.
The team can definitely play better than they did yesterday. The coaches can definitely coach better than they did yesterday. I don't know if Pry will be a good coach. I do know that this is a big rebuild, and we won't know for sure for a couple seasons.
Anyways, if there's any other coaches, teams, or data points you'd like to see on this table, let me know, and I'll try my best to update.
UPDATES
- I added some schools/coaches requested in the comments
- I added a column for year end SP+. For those unaware, SP+ is a tempo and opponent adjusted predictive analytics system. It (intensionally) ignores things like penalties and turnovers (which are statistically random)
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