Comparing what Pry inherited to other recent hires

In the midst of last night's disappointment, there have been a lot of comments (here, on twitter, etc) that say something to the effect of "Shane Beamer and Mel Tucker won in year 1, why can't we?"

I wanted to take a look at some recent hires, and see if coaches (a) actually are turning programs around quickly, and (b) how bare the cupboard is when they arrive. For each coach, I listed:

  • The 247 rank of their first 'partial' class (when a coach is hired in November/December, the previous coach recruited most of the players, and the new coach has to basically convince everyone to stay, hence the term 'partial')
  • The 247 Team Rank for the first season they coached - this includes all talent on the roster; it include recruits/transfers in, and excludes transfers out
  • The 247 rank of the coach's first full class

I'm happy to expand this list of coaches, but these were names that came to mind.

Coach Date Hired First Partial Class 247 Team Talent Score (year 1) First Full class Year 1 Record Year 1 SP+ Ranking
Justin Fuente (Virginia Tech) Nov-2015 42 36 26 10-4 22
Matt Campbell (Iowa State) Nov-2015 55 56 52 3-9 66
Bronco Mendenhall (UVA) Dec-2015 63 42 58 2-10 83
Tom Herman (Texas) Nov-2016 25 13 3 7-6 30
Matt Rhule (Baylor) Dec-2016 40 35 29 1-11 76
PJ Fleck (Minnesota) Jan-2017 38 48 45 5-7 45
Chip Kelly (at UCLA) Nov-2017 19 19 40 3-9 76
Scott Frost (Nebraska) Dec-2017 23 26 17 4-8 49
Mack Brown (UNC) Nov-2018 30 28 14 7-6 30
Greg Schiano (Rutgers, second time) Dec-2019 60 61 39 3-6 101
Sam Pittman Dec-2019 29 29 25 3-7 57
Mel Tucker (Michigan State) Feb-2020 N/A 35 23 2-5 (COVID) 65
Shane Beamer Dec-2020 79 22 24 7-6 84
Brent Pry Dec-2021 36 52 40 (in progress) 0-1 (so far) PRESEASON PREDICTION: 61
Tony Elliott Dec-2021 65 59 64 1-0 PRESEASON PREDICTION: 65

Takeaways:

  • Most coaches don't turn things around in year 1. Everyone talks about Mel Tucker, but the media/the internet largely ignore his first season (I'm sure because it was a weird covid year, but it wasn't good)
  • Lots of talk about Shane - dude had way more talent on his first roster than Pry does. No way to ignore it.
  • The numbers can't account for scheme change (or lack thereof) - switching from zone blocking to man? Switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3? This is going to slow your progress.

The team can definitely play better than they did yesterday. The coaches can definitely coach better than they did yesterday. I don't know if Pry will be a good coach. I do know that this is a big rebuild, and we won't know for sure for a couple seasons.

Anyways, if there's any other coaches, teams, or data points you'd like to see on this table, let me know, and I'll try my best to update.

UPDATES

  • I added some schools/coaches requested in the comments
  • I added a column for year end SP+. For those unaware, SP+ is a tempo and opponent adjusted predictive analytics system. It (intensionally) ignores things like penalties and turnovers (which are statistically random)
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"Why gobble gobble chumps asks such good questions, I will never know." - TheFifthFuller

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