In the midst of last night's disappointment, there have been a lot of comments (here, on twitter, etc) that say something to the effect of "Shane Beamer and Mel Tucker won in year 1, why can't we?"
I wanted to take a look at some recent hires, and see if coaches (a) actually are turning programs around quickly, and (b) how bare the cupboard is when they arrive. For each coach, I listed:
- The 247 rank of their first 'partial' class (when a coach is hired in November/December, the previous coach recruited most of the players, and the new coach has to basically convince everyone to stay, hence the term 'partial')
- The 247 Team Rank for the first season they coached - this includes all talent on the roster; it include recruits/transfers in, and excludes transfers out
- The 247 rank of the coach's first full class
I'm happy to expand this list of coaches, but these were names that came to mind.
|Coach||Date Hired||First Partial Class||247 Team Talent Score (year 1)||First Full class||Year 1 Record||Year 1 SP+ Ranking|
|Justin Fuente (Virginia Tech)||Nov-2015||42||36||26||10-4||22|
|Matt Campbell (Iowa State)||Nov-2015||55||56||52||3-9||66|
|Bronco Mendenhall (UVA)||Dec-2015||63||42||58||2-10||83|
|Tom Herman (Texas)||Nov-2016||25||13||3||7-6||30|
|Matt Rhule (Baylor)||Dec-2016||40||35||29||1-11||76|
|PJ Fleck (Minnesota)||Jan-2017||38||48||45||5-7||45|
|Chip Kelly (at UCLA)||Nov-2017||19||19||40||3-9||76|
|Scott Frost (Nebraska)||Dec-2017||23||26||17||4-8||49|
|Mack Brown (UNC)||Nov-2018||30||28||14||7-6||30|
|Greg Schiano (Rutgers, second time)||Dec-2019||60||61||39||3-6||101|
|Mel Tucker (Michigan State)||Feb-2020||N/A||35||23||2-5 (COVID)||65|
|Brent Pry||Dec-2021||36||52||40 (in progress)||0-1 (so far)||PRESEASON PREDICTION: 61|
|Tony Elliott||Dec-2021||65||59||64||1-0||PRESEASON PREDICTION: 65|
- Most coaches don't turn things around in year 1. Everyone talks about Mel Tucker, but the media/the internet largely ignore his first season (I'm sure because it was a weird covid year, but it wasn't good)
- Lots of talk about Shane - dude had way more talent on his first roster than Pry does. No way to ignore it.
- The numbers can't account for scheme change (or lack thereof) - switching from zone blocking to man? Switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3? This is going to slow your progress.
The team can definitely play better than they did yesterday. The coaches can definitely coach better than they did yesterday. I don't know if Pry will be a good coach. I do know that this is a big rebuild, and we won't know for sure for a couple seasons.
Anyways, if there's any other coaches, teams, or data points you'd like to see on this table, let me know, and I'll try my best to update.
- I added some schools/coaches requested in the comments
- I added a column for year end SP+. For those unaware, SP+ is a tempo and opponent adjusted predictive analytics system. It (intensionally) ignores things like penalties and turnovers (which are statistically random)