So I have only really gotten involved in studying recruiting for the last year. I am someone who tries to find patterns and correlations to see what has an effect on recruits and what doesn't. Constantly seeing people talk about losing instate recruits has made me wonder how much it really matters.
The world has changed a great deal in the last 5-10 years in terms of media and exposure. Twitter, Facebook, etc have blurred state lines a fair amount. We are more likely to hear news about the west coast more than ever.
I want to look at the top 10 recruits from the top 10 football states and attempt to show that in-state does not carry as much weight as so many believe it does. I think it is an exaggerated factor and although it is a variable it really is not as strong as one might believe.
I will throw some lists out which rank the football in said states based on recruits, schools, etc.
1. Texas
2. California
3. Florida
4. Ohio
5. Georgia
6. Pennsylvania
7. Illinois
8. Mississippi
9. Tenn
10. Alabama
10. New Jersey
9. North Carolina
8. Ohio
7. Alabama
6. Virginia
5. Louisiana
4. Georgia
3. Texas
2. California
1. Florida
Here is another list from espn ESPN state football rankings
So now I am just going to look at the top 5 schools in Texas, Florida, Cali, Ohio, and Georgia. These 5 always seem to come up in recruiting talks and we are going to focus on the top 10 recruits from each state both last year and this year and see if they stayed in state or not. Mind you these states also all house National Championship teams. For this I will use the 247composite rankings to rank the top recruits from each state. This is also as of 11:00 am on Feb 5 (national signing day)
Texas
2014
Myles Garrett A&M
Tony Brown Alabama
Solomon Thomas Stanford
KD Cannon Baylor
Jamal Adams LSU
Edward Paris LSU
Davion Hall Baylor
Nick Harvey A&M
Derick Roberson Texas
Jerrod Heard Texas
6/10 stay instate
2013
Keith Ford Oklahoma
Ricky Seals-Jones A&M
Robbie Rhodes Baylor
A'Shawn Robinson Alabama
Darius James Texas
Kent Perkins Texas
Derrick Griffin Miami
Mike Mitchell Ohio State
Dontre Wilson Ohio State
Justin Manning A&M
5/10 stay instate
California
2014
Adoree' Jackson Undecided
John Smith Undecided
Joe Mixon Oklahoma
Royce Freeman Oregon
Damien Mama Undecided
Keller Chryst Stanford
Michiah Quick Undecided
Viane Talamaivao USCw
Nifae Lealao Undecided
Bryce Dixon USCw
So far 3/10 staying instate
2013
Su'a Cravens USCw
Eddie Vanderdoes UCLA
Max Redfield ND
Chris Hawkins USCw
Tahaan Goodman UCLA
Steven Mitchell USCw
Damore'ea Stringfellow Washington
Marcus Baugh Ohio State
Kylie Fitts UCLA
Justin Davis USCw
7/10 stay instate
Florida
2014
Dalvin Cook FSU
Bo Scarbrough Alabama
Sony Michel Georgia
Ermon Lane Undecided
Chad Thomas Miami
Travis Rudolph FSU
Joseph Yearby Miami
KC McDermott Miami
Travonte Valentine Undecided
Artavis Scott Clemson
So far 5/10 staying instate
2013
Vernon Hargreaves III Florida
Laremy Tunsil Ole Miss
Matthew Thomas FSU
Derrick Henry Alabama
Kelvin Taylor Florida
MacKensie Alexander Clemson
Leon McQuay III USCw
Demarcus Walker FSU
Joey Bosa Ohio State
Alex Collins Arkansas
4/10 stay instate
Ohio
2014
Marshon Lattimore Ohio State
Dante Booker Ohio State
Erick Smith Ohio State
Parris Campbell Ohio State
Kyle Berger Ohio State
Michael Ferns Michigan
Sam Hubbard Ohio State
Derek Kief Alabama
DeShone Kizer ND
Darius West Kentucky
6/10 stayed instate
2013
Jalin Marshall Ohio State
Cameron Burrows Ohio State
Dymonte Thomas Michigan
Evan Lisle Ohio State
Michael McCray Michigan
Taco Charlton Michigan
Shelton Gibson WVU
Gareon Conley Ohio State
Malik Zaire ND
Jake Butt Michigan
4/10 stayed instate
Georgia
2014
Lorenzo Carter Undecided
Raekwon McMillan Ohio State
Nick Chubb Georgia
Deshaun Watson Clemson
Malkom Parrish Georgia
Bryson Allen-Williams USCe
Dante Sawyer USCe
Nick Ruffin Auburn
Kalvaraz Bessent Auburn
Korie Rogers Clemson
2/10 stayed instate
2013
Robert Nkemdiche Ole Miss
Montravius Adams Auburn
Carl Lawson Auburn
Vonn Bell Ohio State
Alvin Kamara Alabama
Tyren Jones Alabama
Demarcus Robinson Florida
Tray Matthews Georgia
Kelsey Griffin USCe
Brice Ramsey Georgia
2/10 stayed instate
And finally we will look at Virginia
Virginia
2014
Da'Shawn Hand Alabama
Quin Blanding UVA
Andrew Brown UVA
Jalyn Holmes Ohio State
Derrick Nnadi FSU
Jamil Kamara UVA
Caleb Henderson UNC
Steven Moss UVA
Raymon Minor VT
Travon McMillian VT
6/10 stayed instate
2013
Christian Heckenberg Penn State
Jonathan Allen Alabama
Derrick Green Michigan
Holland Fisher VT
Taquan Mizzell UVA
Matt Rolin Florida
Wyatt Teller VT
Ryan Burns Stanford
E.J. Levenberry FSU
Tim Harris UVA
4/10 stayed instate
Now this is just a small sample of what happens EVERYWHERE. It seems California does an amazing job keeping talent in state but it sure does look like when a National Power comes knocking recruits listen over instate ties. Well unless you are part of the breds.
Comments
The disappointment in losing a lot of in-state players comes from one of the primary philosophies of this program under Beamer when it comes to recruiting: Hit your state the hardest, develop long term relationships with coaches that reap long term rewards. It's an investment strategy. The idea is that if you put in the work now, the classes that come once or twice a decade that are just *Stacked* with in-state talent will pay off in great returns due to the relationships you have cultivated over that time. That's the theory.
The trouble is that it never seems to work out that way. When the truly loaded classes come up all that happens is we get very few of the top guys.
Yep... THIS was the class that all the in-state emphasis should have paid off on, and we whiffed on the true elite talents.
You're talking 4 5* elite players on the defensive side of the ball, and we whiffed on them all. We didn't even get any consideration from two of them, who fast tracked themselves to our biggest rival. Hand should have been ours, we had all the relationships, we had his favorite coach recruiting him, and we completely missed. We missed out on Nnadi as well, after being the favorite most of the way.
No, we don't need to lock down the state, but when true elite in-state classes come by that could potentially be program-changers, its just unfathomable how often we whiff on the whole lot.
Probably his point. All major universities whiff on major talent in-state. See Alabama and Jameis Winston. But, you also got to get the major out-of-state talent. State-pride isn't what it used to be. How many times have you seen "757" quoted or hash-tagged, but never VA. It's not about the state, it's about their neighborhood, and their neighborhood being represented all over the US.
Percy Harvin set the modern mold. Represent the 757 or 804 on the biggest stage, which currently isn't VT.
Right, but the problem is that we're putting all of our eggs in the in-state game, so that when the elite talent comes up we theoretically have a chance to get them. When we don't, it burns.
It doesn't matter if Alabama is whiffing on in-state elite talent because they are pulling in national elite talent...like the #1 recruit in VA. If we were doing that, in-state wouldn't matter as much.
The problem is that you can't not get your elite in-state talent and also not get elite out of state talent and expect to compete on a very high level. So, putting all of our emphasis on developing "relationships" with in-state coaches in order to land elite talent as a result of those relationships in the future and then whiffing is bad news bears. Maybe it's time to adjust the strategy a little bit.
Arguements can be made that part of the reason not to address Marcus Davis'....shortcomings...earlier/at all was because the coaching staff didn't want to damage their relationship with the Ocean Lakes Coaching Staff, but in the end Nnandi went to FSU anyway...
It's time to focus more on getting the best possible players from wherever, every year, and winning more ballgames including big ballgames which matter. Win and the recruits will come, this applies to everyone but UVA.
I completely agree. Beamer needs to shift his philosophy, and I already think you can see the shift occuring. Their is a much greater emphasis on Ohio, Pennsylvania, NJ, and in the south. If you look at the current players holding VT offers for 2015, there are 71 according to 247. Only ~20 are from VA. If you were to go back to 3-4 years (maybe even 2), at this time, you would see about 30 offers for the next year, with 20 from VA, and the other 10 from MD, NC, etc. We'll see if their expanded strategy will pay off, but it was a completely necessary strategy to acclimate to.
I agree in that I think he already has shifted his philosophy.
While he will continue to mine VA for all he can, VT's recruiting footprint has enlarged-specifically to the north.
And while VT missed on some of the top kids in VA-(I'm not so sure that we were much in the running anyway except for Hand for a while, and obviously Nnadi) we got some great out-of state talent AND got some looks from top kids that I don't remember us getting interest from before.
I think Loeffler has shown his ability to get some looks-(maybe Hackenburg would have stayed in-state?).
The new staff is more tech savvy and younger and motivated. I think this pays off next year.
If not.....then their are some tough times ahead.
The key will be maintain, or better as far as games won next year.
If uva lays another egg next year, they will have an uphill climb in that they got a few highly rated kids and didn't do diddly again, AND London's seat will be infinitely hotter.
I think we are in a good position if we can produce on the field.
*757 is more than a neighborhood but your point is well received.
EXACTLY
Yes. Yes it matters.
Good stuff...timing might be a lil off tho.
California is big. It's really far to travel from anywhere in Cali to Oregon, Washington, or Arizona. So, they're definitely going to win the "in-state" battle. When you consider they're pretty much the same exact size of the entire east coast from PA to AL and all states in-between, it's not a valid comparison.
But I agree, In-state doesn't mean much. Skype, social media, and relatively cheap airfare will broaden the recruit landscape.
USC, UCLA and Stanford will keep talent in, just because they want to stay in the area, I mean who wouldn't. I even considered applying to USC because of the area. But California is so big that there are kids from California on the a lot of rosters in the NCAA. I was just looking at ODUs roster the other day and they have 3 or 4 kids from California. Just think, with ODUs location, kids are buying into this "#353" mantra which isn't much different from what London is selling at UVA. If VT was located near the beach, we'd probably be landing these 4/5* kids. If ODU does well in the next 5-10 years and gets reshuffled again, we could be competing with them for these same recruits.
Moral of the story if that wasn't coherent: Location, Location, Location.
353?
I didn't know what it was at first, but apparently the coaching staff is using Virginia Beach and the surrounding area as motivation for recruits to come there. Basically you only play 12 games in a season, so what are you going to do with the rest of your time in college.
http://odubleedblue.com/recruiting-update-353-pitch-is-working/
Hitch is a point I've been making for a long time.
Then I realize Miami must be REALLY be doing something wrong.
All they should to do is whisper South Beach to these guys and get 1/2 of them just with that.
Technically, no. It's most important that we recruit talented players who fit our system and have good character. If a recruit has all three of those things, I don't care if they're from VA, MD, CA, or the UK.
But from a practical standpoint, it's easier to develop relationships with local (within a 5-6 hr radius) coaches, teams, families and communities. The advantages of this are:
TL;DR
We cannot recruit successfully without building 'pipeline' relationships with schools/coaches/communities. It's (typically) easier to build these relations at in state schools rather than out of state schools.
Honestly, I just hate losing to UVA.
Good thing you're a Hokie then. We haven't in a decade. There's even a shirt for it
I'm wearing mine today! Figured it was only appropriate.
Not worried about the STARS, Confident the VT Coaches will continue to develop talent that produces more wins than loses year after year after ...
Love the Avatar.
Woof! Woof!
"I don't fix-em, man, I just know how to drive 'em!"
I've tried to find good GIFs from Kelly's Heroes with no luck!
The flaw in your approach - and it's the common flaw any time anyone does this - is comparing Top 10s. It assumes equal levels of talent in each state.
For instance, The Top 10 in VA equates to the Top 35 or so in Texas, due to the fact Texas has a lot more talent. So if Texas gets 8 players from the TX Top 35, it's the same as VT getting 8 players from the VA Top 10.
So to really do an honest comparison, you have to determine the talent distribution. Fortunately Rivals does this for you in their rankings by state, to a degree.
List of Top X prospects by state
But for VT, the reason instate recruiting matters so much is the huge concentration of resources we place in VA.
did you read my post? I am not comparing the level of talent in each state. I am comparing the likelihood that someone in a certain state is going to stay instate. I even used the top 5 football states and did not compare its level to VAs. Furthermore the top 5/10 in VA compare pretty well this year to other of the top states. They dont beat them but they are not miles behind in talent at the top
I think the dilemma here is :
1. BmoreHokie isn't really saying to compare the levels of talent. Instead, he's saying the bigger and/or more talent rich states naturally have more talent, so to do an accurate assessment one must choose their sample sizes relative to each state's size and/or talent level.
2. But I think Adrian (nice name btw, I'm an Adrian myself) was unconcerned with comparing talent in any regard. I think he just chose top 10's because that's easiest to do and presents a quick breakdown of the numbers.
I don't think either way is wrong but I do think BmoreHokie's way may be a more accurate, more in depth analysis. For Cali/Tx/Fla increase the sample sizes and see what the numbers say then. The percentage may come out to the same as what you already discovered. The link Bmore provided gives the basis to create the exchange rate, so to speak.
You also have to consider the # of instate major programs there are. Ohio and Florida/Texas are very different in that regard.
The most effective reason to retain in-state recruits is to develop a continuity , connections, legacies and tradition. Having long standing relationships is most reasonably done closer to home (in-state). Proximity geographically is important for visits but also with culturing relationships, rivalries(UVA) and familiarity ("my 2 cousins went to Tech...")
I found it interesting in Kevin Jones' interview after Whit Babcocks press conference. KJ said that Whit, being from the area and a Tech fan, wouldn't have to be ~brought up to speed~ about being a HOKIE. It sounds funny, but it does speak to the fact that having familiarity with a program helps in the continuity of a culture that Frank & Co. has developed. Becoming a HOKIE isn't just playing for a good team, It's about becoming part of a family, the HOKIE NATION family.
GO HOKIES!!!!
I don't know if you listed those names in order, but it looks like the "top recruit" in each state generally stayed home, regardless of what percentage of the total left state. Except for Virginia...the "top recruit" left the state. You then look at 2, 3 or even 4 for VA...elsewhere (UVA doesn't count as in state).
To put that in a number: Only 4 of 12 top (#1) recruits in your lists left their home state, and two of those were from Virginia
VA (and Virginia Tech) needs to get at least a few of the top 2 or 3 recruits to be comparable to those other states, IMHO.
Just a thought, but wouldn't the radius around Blacksburg be a better marker of what recruits we shouldn't be missing out on? The Peninsula and South Hampton Roads are 5.5+ hours from the Burg. While obviously we shouldn't give up on recruiting the 757, wouldn't it make more sense to try and lock down Charlotte (>3hrs), Richmond (3.5hrs), DC (4.5hrs), etc?
It is a shorter or same length drive to Cincinnati, Columbus OH, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, The Triangle, Columbia SC... heck, Atlanta and Nashville are only 6hrs from Blacksburg. Now I know some of these cities have schools in them or whatever, but distance seems more important than state loyalty right? It isn't like these kids have to pay out-of-state tuition if they are on scholly!
If the Peninsula is 5.5 hours from Blacksburg, something's wrong. :)
Also, within your "radius" argument is much of the entire state of West Virginia (45 minutes to the border). Good luck trying to lock them down, for whatever they're worth.
Agreed on your comment about the Peninsula. My parents live in Hampton, and it takes me almost exactly 4 hours to get from my townhouse in Blacksburg to their house. Just checked Google Maps, and it says 4:14 between the exact addresses.
It would take me about 5:30 to get from my townhouse to OBX. No way is anywhere in the 757 a full 5.5 hours from the Burg, unless you're driving under 70 all the way up 81 and down 64.
Fair enough, I guess I was comparing travel time with a stop or two but that would add a half an hour to all my other distances. Plus I drive slow :-)
Anyway, my point is, there isn't anywhere in the state that is much further away from Blacksburg than the 757 right?
Chincoteague Island... Where the real Thoroughbreds play.