Bud Davis (stat dude) posted this a few days ago:
pic.twitter.com/1RHP3DJg5D— Bud Davis (@JBudDavis) September 11, 2024
The big takeaway here is that teams are lining up in zone 81% of snaps.
The TSL podcast talked about this as well (unsure if the source is the same), but I found their analysis to be interesting (Link, 18:10ish for Drones Discussion):
- Across all of college football in 2023, offenses saw zone coverage 52% of the time. VT is seeing it 81% of the time.
- Chris Coleman believes that the zone coverage is forcing drones to read the entire field
- "He's seeing some things for the first time this year and struggling to process it, but the more he sees these things, I'm sure he'll get better at it"
- They also talk about Drones inexperience: He has not started a full season of college football yet, and due to COVID, only started one normal season of high school football
- Will Stewart (using PFF data) makes the argument that Drones is getting pressured the same amount, but getting sacked more and is throwing it away less.
- Will Stewart also makes the argument that Drones isn't as effective of a runner this season. Andy says that Pry addressed this the midweek presser, and Pry says that a lot of these are read plays, and the defense is forcing Drones to give the ball up.
Discuss.
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Comments
The number that stands out to me is "vs non-Blitz 79%"
Given how often he's being immediately pressured by a pass rush, or how often he freezes like a deer in headlights when he sees an unblocked rusher, that's really disturbing about our OL play. You can't have your QB hearing footsteps the second he gets the ball on a constant 4 man rush, even the best passers will crumble behind pass blocking that poor.
That 79% of the time against the Blitz means we need to have more than 1 dump position for him to default to. Quick Slants, five yard post, RB chip and release (that was open multiple times against Marshall).
Sorry, I mistyped, I didn't mean to bait and switch the comment on you like this.
The actual stat is 79% against the non-Blitz. Which is so. much. worse. in this context.
Agree. It is absolutely ridiculous how bad our OL is that teams can constantly pressure us without really blitzing a lot. French is right. It's the blocking, stupid. Or, the not blocking, I guess.
You dirty rat, you set me up!!! :)
Interesting thing is that his EPA against the Blitz is higher than no-blitz downs - meaning that Drones/Bowen perform better against the blitz than the average FBS QB/offense on the average play.
But my guess is that's because when a blitz comes, someone else is open for a quick release. When there's no blitz, drones is taking way more coverage sacks (assuming you believe the PFF data shared by TSL guys to be accurate).
Yep. If you're looking to get the ball out quickly, beating the blitz is as simple as figuring out where the blitz is coming from and then throwing to a receiver in that vacated space.
It's the same reason run-heavy team's quarterbacks tend to be efficient on play-action, or RPO teams with a significant run threat can tear up the MOF. When you've got linebackers/safeties up in the box, and especially when they are attacking the LOS at the snap, there's a lot bigger windows and more open grass on the back end.
Marshall was using a basic corner blitz in the first half. We countered by throwing it the opposite way. SMH
It's clear you meant "vs No Blitz 79%" according to the data and you're analysis...
Interestingly, it's not far from relative usage at (+6%). Defenses will continue to not blitz because (1) VT's run game and (2) poor O-line pass blocking. It will critical for the O-line to get better. They don't need to be great, but just good enough such that medium and long pass plays are more than an occasional threat and Drones can find lanes to scramble and/or take off to get a few yards.
Drones has struggled with pressure. Week 1, he just dumped it to the RB in the flat just about every time. Week 2, he did try to scramble and/or take off, but was not successful. The fault really lies with the WRs as they did not get open. They have to get better at the scramble drill; there is no reason a WR cannot find an open spot in a zone when Drones buys time, especially when the LB and safeties are creeping up to prevent Drones from taking off. And when the scramble/WR play becomes a legitimate threat, along with the threat of a RB valve, the take off and run will open up more.
Yeah, I mistyped.
At this point the pass blocking is so poor we have to do what we can to completely take the pressure off the passing game. I said it in the other thread, but our offensive attack has to be to run the ball down the opposing team's throat. Our OL is capable of opening up holes, and if you can get through the line against a zone defense, which teams have been showing us a lot, you can pick up chunk yards. And the second you start getting the defense to adjust to take away the run by not getting too deep in the pocket, you start to give Drones just enough time to find an open guy in a route, even being a crap line.
Its literally what we did to open up the offense last year. The OL is still bad enough that we have to do it again.
Do you know what SR means? Success Rate?
Thanks for sharing. Quick takeaways:
Correct - which in this case is % of plays with EPA>0, slightly different than the Bill C definition.
Relavent to your last point of Drones not being as effective a runner... bourbonstreet was saying something about Drones (and Tuten) getting dinged up near the end of camp. For what its worth...
I did not realize that was a post about drones being banged up lol.
I mean how were you supposed to know that based on the post haha
Yea I thought that was about Tuten. Pry said he was in blue/no contact earlier this week
After he got rolled up on last week then he for sure didn't need to be hit in practice this week. I was so worried it was going to be Jennings from last season all over again.
I mean if you can get pressure with 4 you should play a lot of zone. Not to many teams have 4 good DBs to man up on Jennings Felton, Gosnell, and Lane. MLB vs Tuten on a swing pass, I'm taking Tuten. Our skill players are difficult to deal with but they can't be useful if 4 DLine can pressure the QB.