I'm continuing to drop some posts evaluating guys on my radar who could potentially be the next guy for VT. This is my fourth post. Checkout the previous three:
This week: Matt Campbell
Who is Matt Campbell?
Matt Campbell is the 45-year-old head coach at Iowa State who has quietly built the most successful era in Cyclones history. The Massillon, Ohio native played defensive line at Division III powerhouse Mount Union (winning three national championships), then immediately entered coaching. He's methodically worked his way up from graduate assistant at Bowling Green to offensive coordinator at Toledo, then head coach at Toledo (35-15 from 2011-2015), before landing at Iowa State in 2016.
Now in his tenth season in Ames, Campbell is the winningest coach in Iowa State history with a 69-52 record at the time of writing this. He just signed a contract extension through 2032, but as we know, that doesn't count him out.
His track record of sustained success is unmatched for programs with structural disadvantages
Campbell has turned Iowa State into a consistent winner despite every conceivable disadvantage. After a 3-9 debut season in 2016, Campbell has led the Cyclones to seven winning seasons in eight years, including bowl eligibility in seven of eight seasons. The 2024 season was historic - Iowa State's first-ever 11-win season, a Big 12 Championship game appearance, and a Pop-Tarts Bowl victory over Miami (BTW, fuck Miami).
Campbell has won 45 Big 12 Conference games (that number might be a little dated, and impacted by realignment, but it's close enough, and allegedly tied for seventh-most in league history). The Cyclones have been ranked in the AP Poll for over 50 weeks during Campbell's tenure; they'd been ranked just 40 weeks total in the 80 years prior.
What makes this performance even more impressive? Iowa State's recruiting classes under Campbell have never been ranked better than 39th nationally per 247Sports.
He's a proven program builder, not a one-hit wonder
Unlike some G5 coaches who have one magical season before flaming out, Campbell has sustained excellence across a decade. At Toledo, he went 35-15 with the 2015 team peaking at No. 19 in the AP Poll. At Iowa State, after the rough first year, he's posted eight eight-win seasons in nine years. He's won Big 12 Coach of the Year three times (2017, 2018, 2020).
Campbell's teams consistently overachieve their talent level. Iowa State is currently 5-0 in 2025, ranked 22nd in the AP Poll. SP+ ranks them 26th overall with the 45th best offense and 18th best defense, despite recruiting classes that barely crack the top-50 (and often don't).
His defensive scheme is innovative and has influenced the entire sport
Quick disclaimer: Scheme is not something I'm super knowledgable on - I found two articles (Match Quarters, SIS), and used AI to help me understand then summarize
Campbell, working with longtime defensive coordinator Jon Heacock, helped popularize the 3-3-5 "three-high safety" defense that has become one of college football's most influential schemes. The defense features three deep safeties with a middle safety ("Star") who can fit into the box against the run while disguising coverages. It's designed to confuse offensive blocking schemes, limit explosive plays, and create matchup advantages with hybrid defenders.
The scheme has been so successful that coaches across college football have adopted variations of it. Iowa State's defense has ranked in the Big 12's top three in scoring defense in seven of the last eight seasons (per Iowa State) - scoring defense is a dumb stat, but across a period of many seasons, it signifies a good defense. In 2022, Campbell's defense led the nation in forced turnovers (however, please remember that turnovers are quite random).
His offensive scheme adapts to his personnel, not the other way around
Unlike coaches who force players into rigid systems, Campbell's offense is built on multiplicity, physicality, and adaptability. The scheme uses four-receiver sets, two-tight end looks, and under-center power packages - whatever maximizes the talent available.
When Campbell had elite running backs like David Montgomery and Breece Hall, he leaned into a physical run game. When he had quarterback Brock Purdy (now starring for the 49ers), he opened up the passing attack. Current quarterback Rocco Becht threw for 3,505 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2024, while the Cyclones also had two 1,000-yard receivers (Jayden Higgins with 1,183 yards and Jaylin Noel).
He develops NFL talent better than almost anyone
Campbell has sent 15 players to the NFL Draft during his Iowa State tenure, including four in 2022 and four in 2025. The 2025 draft marked the first time Iowa State had three players selected within the first three rounds.
His NFL success stories include: David Montgomery (3rd round, 57 career NFL touchdowns), Breece Hall (2nd round, unanimous All-American), Charlie Kolar (first three-time All-American in Iowa State history), Will McDonald IV (1st round pick in 2025, first Iowa State first-rounder in 50 years), and most famously, Brock Purdy - "Mr. Irrelevant" in the 2022 draft who became an NFL MVP candidate with the San Francisco 49ers.
He's pragmatic about the modern transfer portal and NIL era
At Big 12 Media Days in July 2025, Campbell claimed that his "top 20 guys took a pay cut to come back to Iowa State" rather than entering the transfer portal for more NIL money. Now, that's probably some coach speak - we all know how these quotes work - but there's truth underneath it: Campbell hasn't experienced the mass portal exodus that's devastated other programs. His roster retention has been solid, if not spectacular.
His approach to roster management is refreshingly pragmatic. He tells players and staff in the preseason that everyone will evaluate their options at the end of the year. This transparency seems to build trust rather than paranoia. When coordinators leave for bigger jobs, Campbell promotes from within. When players transfer out, he finds replacements who fit his system. He's not fighting the new reality of college football - he's working within it, even if he's not thriving in it the way some programs are.
His coordinator hiring record is unique
Here's where it gets interesting. Campbell's coordinators have been incredibly stable but haven't followed traditional college football career paths. Offensive coordinator Tom Manning served two stints (2016-17, 2019-21), left for the NFL Colts, then returned. He never secured another P4 coordinator job. Nate Scheelhaase was OC for 2023 before moving to the LA Rams as pass game coordinator. Current OC Taylor Mouser has been with Campbell since Toledo but has no P4 experience outside Iowa State.
Defensive coordinator Jon Heacock has anchored the defense since 2016. He had previous DC experience at Kent State and Youngstown State, plus position coaching at Indiana (pre-Cignetti, if it wasn't obvious). Despite his innovative scheme being copied league-wide, he's never been hired away.
The pattern is clear: Campbell either promotes internally or hires coaches with mid-major or NFL experience. Very few of his coordinators have prior P4 experience outside Iowa State, and when they leave, they typically go to the NFL or lower-tier programs rather than other P4 coordinator positions.
For Virginia Tech, this presents both opportunity and risk. On one hand, Campbell clearly knows how to identify coaching talent and develop it. On the other hand, would his Midwest-heavy coaching tree translate to recruiting the Mid-Atlantic?
The recruiting question is the elephant in the room
Campbell has a reputation as a "boy scout" recruiter (per Steven Godfrey) who isn't willing to 'get in the dirt' to win a recruiting battle. Seems like Campbell chases OKGs instead of stars. But, this approach has worked at Iowa State, where he's consistently landed top-50 classes and developed players beyond their rankings.
However, there's legitimate concern about whether this translates to the ACC. Campbell's recruiting is heavily Midwest-focused. His 2025 class included seven players from Iowa. His coordinators and position coaches are largely from the Midwest or have Midwest ties. Can this system work in Virginia, where you're competing against Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, and Penn State for the same kids? Combine this with Campbell's unique staffing strategy... I dunno it gives me some concerns.
If you want to be optimistic, you could make the argument that the revenue-sharing era might actually help Campbell's approach. Pre-NIL, Charismatic personalities, handshake deals for playtime, and under-the-table money helped aggressive recruiters. In the new era, Maybe Campbell can be more competitive by making an offer 'above board'. But that's speculative.
What would Campbell cost Virginia Tech?
Campbell just signed an extension through 2032 at $5 million per year - notably taking a discount to increase his assistant salary pool and revenue sharing budget.
VT can definitely afford him (with the new athletics investment) but the bigger question is whether Campbell wants to leave a place where he's beloved, stable, and has complete control for a rebuild project in a conference facing existential uncertainty. They're probably going to build him a statue if he sticks around
The realistic assessment: weighing the concerns against the upside
Would I have concerns with a Campbell hire? Absolutely. The recruiting question looms large - can a guy who's built his entire career in the Midwest recruit the Mid-Atlantic effectively when his staff has almost no experience in this region? His coordinator tree is unusual, with the lack of P4 experience outside Iowa State raising questions about whether his system is hard to export. Iowa State plays in a weaker conference than the ACC, and after 10 years building his program exactly how he wants it, can Campbell rebuild at 45 years old? Does he even want to?
That said, Matt Campbell is a proven winner who has sustained success longer than almost any candidate Virginia Tech could realistically target. If the administration can convince Campbell that the ACC provides a better path to the College Football Playoff than the Big 12, that the $229 million investment demonstrates commitment to winning, and that the recruiting challenges are solvable with the right support staff - then Campbell becomes a home run hire. But if he sees Virginia Tech as a lateral move with more risk and less job security than Iowa State, he'll stay put. And honestly? That might be the smart play for him.
Still, Campbell would be a significant upgrade over the current situation, and if announced as the next Virginia Tech Football Coach, I'd be cautiously optimistic about the direction of the program.
Comments
Dan Mullen would be my #1, but Matt Campbell isn't far behind. If he's interested, you throw everything you can at trying to bring him in.
And if he's not interested, stop at nothing to make him interested.
After the committee recommends him, Whit has only one job....
No! Let Campbell stay at Iowa State and keep doing well. I want at least one of my teams to do well.
Sorry Papa F, I want your other team to do well. Go Hawks
"Go Hawks"
Must not downvote opinions. Must not downvote opinions, must not
heh heh heh. Fear not, the Hokies are far and away in first place, but Iowa is a firm 2nd. I normally keep quiet about it here but I couldn't resist
should be at or close to the top of our list...current and sustained success at a fairly comparable program...produces competent offenses and good defenses...should have access to a much larger talent pool at VT than ISU
Also, I wrote most of this before Iowa State's loss to Cincy. So there might be some stats that are a week outdated and others that are not.
I'm too lazy to correct because it doesn't really impact the thesis.
This is the hire that I think our conference affiliation kills. In a healthy ACC I think he'd make this move in a heartbeat but otherwise. He's spent his career in the midwest, is there now in a stronger conference where he probably won't win any championships but its steady sailing and stable with no reason to jump to the ACC circle of suck.
Not sure about this take. Outside if the $ec and Big10, the ACC is the only other conference that's had a national champion in a long time. Someone stated in another post that the path to the playoffs is much easier and more likely in the ACC than elsewhere and as of right now that argument is pretty accurate. I think there's enough attractiveness with the opening to draw a big name, of course having a boatload of cash to offer certainly helps.
I don't think it's the strength of the teams in the actual conferences that's a draw. What hurts the ACC IMO is the general uncertainty of the conference.
While the Big 12 is mid, it made moves to pick up other schools when they got raided, and is definitely staying around. There's a world where the ACC falls apart with a select few going to P2 and everyone else trying to stay out of Washington State & Oregon State territory.
This. No one wants any of the schools in the B12. There are 2-8 ACC schools who will likely be of interest to other conferences. The ACC could collapse at any time. VT is not in the 2, but definitely in the 8.
I won't go as far as none of the schools. I could see Houston, Texas Tech, Arizona State and maybe Kansas being considered (Kansas purely for basketball.) The two Texas schools in recent years have shown the willingness to spend oil money to compete. Arizona State might be a stretch but if it's B10 looking for a bit more balance to USC/UCLA/Oregon/Washington side I think they make sense.
Not sure either conference wants to deal with BYU and some of its unique challenges.
This is was what I meant by stronger. At least in my perception there's more stability in the Big12 than the ACC right now. The Big12 is a conference of average football teams though.
I think we'll approach Campbell and Golesh (maybe he's next in this series) and Golesh might be #1 on our list. He does know/recruit our area and coached for both Campbell at ISU (recruiting coord and TE) and obviously Heupel at UCF and Tenn...two successful programs...and now he has his own successful program. I think long term his might be the highest ceiling of the realistic candidates.
We can't afford him.
I think this might be the ultimate issue.
There were rumors that Whit had made a play for Campbell last time around and the price was much too high..maybe accurate, maybe not.
But it seems clear that Campbell is content at ISU, obviously doesn't have tremendous resources but also doesn't have unreasonable expectations and people constantly looking over his shoulder.
I think ultimately the price to get him out of ISU is going to be more than even our new cash-infused Athletics Dept can muster.
we can't afford anyone we want. The price to pull them away from where they are is too much, and the allure of being in the ACC pales to anything in the Big10 or SEC. Even if we did manage to build up the courage to make an offer, its going to be like that girl in HS that you asked to the prom and she says she's waiting on someone else to ask her.
I would have said a month ago Campbell is who I want. However since then, and especially considering the "Boy Scout" recruiter reputation, I am not as sold. I hate that we are at this point in college football, however the simple fact is you have to be able to compete for the Jimmys and the Joes even if you have to get your hands dirty.
So what is he is paired with a cutthroat bulldog mentality GM? I want a coach who knows the X's, O's. Jimmie's, and the Joe's and can tell the GM "this guy would be perfect, go get him", and actually win with the guys he identifies. I don't know that the coach needs to be the sales guy anymore, but needs to be able to explain the system and the opportunity and the GM can close deals.
Is a "Boy Scout" recruiter reputation really that much of a hindrance when all the below-the-table stuff is now above-the-table?
That's a big unknown, right? Does Campbell's pragmatism play to his advantage if he has a GM who just tells him what numbers to run?
Here's another semi-related question: If Campbell's entire 'coaching tree' is (basically) FCS or NFL, is he more likely than other coaches to work with a GM with an NFL background/NFL system?
Rev Share hasn't even existed for 6 months yet. Definitely too soon to know what will work and what won't.
Obviously, this is all dependent on Campbell actually wanting to give up personnel management.
Over 10 years he's basically 7-5 on average (in the Big 12). Yes, that does seem to be ticking up in the last couple of years.
While better than where we currently are, is this what we want to aspire to?
Only won 9 or more games in two seasons although it appears this will be a third with a 5-1 start. He has had them in the rankings in seven of those seasons but not really enthusiastic about him and if he really wants an enormous amount to walk away from ISU then not worth it to me. 2022 was especially brutal. Been to two Big 12 Title games but lost both. Been to 7 Bowl Games but 3-4 there.
if you look at heat maps/equivalent of where HS football talent comes from, Iowa is pretty cool. I think winning consistently there is outstanding.
2019 but not that out of date
https://www.bannersociety.com/2019/8/14/20747379/college-football-player...
You misunderstand how bad Iowa state has been historically.
This. Comparable to Kansas State pre-Snyder, but for much longer.
So UVA?
UVA wishes they had KSU's football history
When I was a freshman at VT back in 1983, UVA had not had back to back winning seasons in 30 years!
No, I get it, they are excited to just have winning seasons and a bowl game. I just think we need to aim higher.
Maybe an SEC coach that just consistently has winning seasons could do well outside the P2, but ISU is playing in the Big 12.
The thesis is that if Campbell can perform well at an underfunded B12 school, he should be able to preform at a properly funded ACC school