The Argument for Matt Campbell to be the next VT Football Coach

I'm continuing to drop some posts evaluating guys on my radar who could potentially be the next guy for VT. This is my fourth post. Checkout the previous three:

1. WKU coach Tyson Helton
2. JMU coach Bob Chesney
3. UNLV coach Dan Mullen

This week: Matt Campbell

Who is Matt Campbell?

Matt Campbell is the 45-year-old head coach at Iowa State who has quietly built the most successful era in Cyclones history. The Massillon, Ohio native played defensive line at Division III powerhouse Mount Union (winning three national championships), then immediately entered coaching. He's methodically worked his way up from graduate assistant at Bowling Green to offensive coordinator at Toledo, then head coach at Toledo (35-15 from 2011-2015), before landing at Iowa State in 2016.

Now in his tenth season in Ames, Campbell is the winningest coach in Iowa State history with a 69-52 record at the time of writing this. He just signed a contract extension through 2032, but as we know, that doesn't count him out.

His track record of sustained success is unmatched for programs with structural disadvantages

Campbell has turned Iowa State into a consistent winner despite every conceivable disadvantage. After a 3-9 debut season in 2016, Campbell has led the Cyclones to seven winning seasons in eight years, including bowl eligibility in seven of eight seasons. The 2024 season was historic - Iowa State's first-ever 11-win season, a Big 12 Championship game appearance, and a Pop-Tarts Bowl victory over Miami (BTW, fuck Miami).

Campbell has won 45 Big 12 Conference games (that number might be a little dated, and impacted by realignment, but it's close enough, and allegedly tied for seventh-most in league history). The Cyclones have been ranked in the AP Poll for over 50 weeks during Campbell's tenure; they'd been ranked just 40 weeks total in the 80 years prior.

What makes this performance even more impressive? Iowa State's recruiting classes under Campbell have never been ranked better than 39th nationally per 247Sports.

He's a proven program builder, not a one-hit wonder

Unlike some G5 coaches who have one magical season before flaming out, Campbell has sustained excellence across a decade. At Toledo, he went 35-15 with the 2015 team peaking at No. 19 in the AP Poll. At Iowa State, after the rough first year, he's posted eight eight-win seasons in nine years. He's won Big 12 Coach of the Year three times (2017, 2018, 2020).

Campbell's teams consistently overachieve their talent level. Iowa State is currently 5-0 in 2025, ranked 22nd in the AP Poll. SP+ ranks them 26th overall with the 45th best offense and 18th best defense, despite recruiting classes that barely crack the top-50 (and often don't).

His defensive scheme is innovative and has influenced the entire sport
Quick disclaimer: Scheme is not something I'm super knowledgable on - I found two articles (Match Quarters, SIS), and used AI to help me understand then summarize

Campbell, working with longtime defensive coordinator Jon Heacock, helped popularize the 3-3-5 "three-high safety" defense that has become one of college football's most influential schemes. The defense features three deep safeties with a middle safety ("Star") who can fit into the box against the run while disguising coverages. It's designed to confuse offensive blocking schemes, limit explosive plays, and create matchup advantages with hybrid defenders.

The scheme has been so successful that coaches across college football have adopted variations of it. Iowa State's defense has ranked in the Big 12's top three in scoring defense in seven of the last eight seasons (per Iowa State) - scoring defense is a dumb stat, but across a period of many seasons, it signifies a good defense. In 2022, Campbell's defense led the nation in forced turnovers (however, please remember that turnovers are quite random).

His offensive scheme adapts to his personnel, not the other way around

Unlike coaches who force players into rigid systems, Campbell's offense is built on multiplicity, physicality, and adaptability. The scheme uses four-receiver sets, two-tight end looks, and under-center power packages - whatever maximizes the talent available.

When Campbell had elite running backs like David Montgomery and Breece Hall, he leaned into a physical run game. When he had quarterback Brock Purdy (now starring for the 49ers), he opened up the passing attack. Current quarterback Rocco Becht threw for 3,505 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2024, while the Cyclones also had two 1,000-yard receivers (Jayden Higgins with 1,183 yards and Jaylin Noel).

He develops NFL talent better than almost anyone

Campbell has sent 15 players to the NFL Draft during his Iowa State tenure, including four in 2022 and four in 2025. The 2025 draft marked the first time Iowa State had three players selected within the first three rounds.

His NFL success stories include: David Montgomery (3rd round, 57 career NFL touchdowns), Breece Hall (2nd round, unanimous All-American), Charlie Kolar (first three-time All-American in Iowa State history), Will McDonald IV (1st round pick in 2025, first Iowa State first-rounder in 50 years), and most famously, Brock Purdy - "Mr. Irrelevant" in the 2022 draft who became an NFL MVP candidate with the San Francisco 49ers.

He's pragmatic about the modern transfer portal and NIL era

At Big 12 Media Days in July 2025, Campbell claimed that his "top 20 guys took a pay cut to come back to Iowa State" rather than entering the transfer portal for more NIL money. Now, that's probably some coach speak - we all know how these quotes work - but there's truth underneath it: Campbell hasn't experienced the mass portal exodus that's devastated other programs. His roster retention has been solid, if not spectacular.

His approach to roster management is refreshingly pragmatic. He tells players and staff in the preseason that everyone will evaluate their options at the end of the year. This transparency seems to build trust rather than paranoia. When coordinators leave for bigger jobs, Campbell promotes from within. When players transfer out, he finds replacements who fit his system. He's not fighting the new reality of college football - he's working within it, even if he's not thriving in it the way some programs are.

His coordinator hiring record is unique

Here's where it gets interesting. Campbell's coordinators have been incredibly stable but haven't followed traditional college football career paths. Offensive coordinator Tom Manning served two stints (2016-17, 2019-21), left for the NFL Colts, then returned. He never secured another P4 coordinator job. Nate Scheelhaase was OC for 2023 before moving to the LA Rams as pass game coordinator. Current OC Taylor Mouser has been with Campbell since Toledo but has no P4 experience outside Iowa State.

Defensive coordinator Jon Heacock has anchored the defense since 2016. He had previous DC experience at Kent State and Youngstown State, plus position coaching at Indiana (pre-Cignetti, if it wasn't obvious). Despite his innovative scheme being copied league-wide, he's never been hired away.

The pattern is clear: Campbell either promotes internally or hires coaches with mid-major or NFL experience. Very few of his coordinators have prior P4 experience outside Iowa State, and when they leave, they typically go to the NFL or lower-tier programs rather than other P4 coordinator positions.

For Virginia Tech, this presents both opportunity and risk. On one hand, Campbell clearly knows how to identify coaching talent and develop it. On the other hand, would his Midwest-heavy coaching tree translate to recruiting the Mid-Atlantic?

The recruiting question is the elephant in the room

Campbell has a reputation as a "boy scout" recruiter (per Steven Godfrey) who isn't willing to 'get in the dirt' to win a recruiting battle. Seems like Campbell chases OKGs instead of stars. But, this approach has worked at Iowa State, where he's consistently landed top-50 classes and developed players beyond their rankings.

However, there's legitimate concern about whether this translates to the ACC. Campbell's recruiting is heavily Midwest-focused. His 2025 class included seven players from Iowa. His coordinators and position coaches are largely from the Midwest or have Midwest ties. Can this system work in Virginia, where you're competing against Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, and Penn State for the same kids? Combine this with Campbell's unique staffing strategy... I dunno it gives me some concerns.

If you want to be optimistic, you could make the argument that the revenue-sharing era might actually help Campbell's approach. Pre-NIL, Charismatic personalities, handshake deals for playtime, and under-the-table money helped aggressive recruiters. In the new era, Maybe Campbell can be more competitive by making an offer 'above board'. But that's speculative.

What would Campbell cost Virginia Tech?

Campbell just signed an extension through 2032 at $5 million per year - notably taking a discount to increase his assistant salary pool and revenue sharing budget.

VT can definitely afford him (with the new athletics investment) but the bigger question is whether Campbell wants to leave a place where he's beloved, stable, and has complete control for a rebuild project in a conference facing existential uncertainty. They're probably going to build him a statue if he sticks around

The realistic assessment: weighing the concerns against the upside

Would I have concerns with a Campbell hire? Absolutely. The recruiting question looms large - can a guy who's built his entire career in the Midwest recruit the Mid-Atlantic effectively when his staff has almost no experience in this region? His coordinator tree is unusual, with the lack of P4 experience outside Iowa State raising questions about whether his system is hard to export. Iowa State plays in a weaker conference than the ACC, and after 10 years building his program exactly how he wants it, can Campbell rebuild at 45 years old? Does he even want to?

That said, Matt Campbell is a proven winner who has sustained success longer than almost any candidate Virginia Tech could realistically target. If the administration can convince Campbell that the ACC provides a better path to the College Football Playoff than the Big 12, that the $229 million investment demonstrates commitment to winning, and that the recruiting challenges are solvable with the right support staff - then Campbell becomes a home run hire. But if he sees Virginia Tech as a lateral move with more risk and less job security than Iowa State, he'll stay put. And honestly? That might be the smart play for him.

Still, Campbell would be a significant upgrade over the current situation, and if announced as the next Virginia Tech Football Coach, I'd be cautiously optimistic about the direction of the program.