Well, that was less fun. Both Hokies teams underperformed in their respective early season tournaments, with the men finishing 4th and the women finishing 3rd.
The Men's Team
Going 2-2, with wins over Bryant (#307) and Colorado State (#68), followed by losses to Saint Mary's (#33) and VCU (#43). That puts the Hokies' resume at 1-2 in Quad 1 matchups, 1-0 in Quad 2 matchups, and 4-0 in Quad 4 matchups.
Scoring
Scoring fell off a cliff as competition got stiffer. From 95.75 ppg last edition, this edition, the Hokies only averaged 69.5 ppg. That being said, Amani Hansberry leads a group of 5 Hokies in double figure scoring, with 14.67ppg. Avdalas (11.25ppg), Lawal and Schutt (10.5ppg), and Johnson (10) round out the double figure scorers. Ben Hammond just missed out at 9ppg. Bedford averaged (5.5ppg), while Gurdack (3.75ppg), and Dorn (3ppg) all averaged at least a basket a game, while Pasha rounded out the scorers with 1.33ppg.
Rebounding
Like scoring, rebounding also fell off considerably from the 40.75 rpg to the 28.5 rpg over this set. Lawal still maintained the lead at 7.5 rpg, with Johnson (7.25rpg), Hansberry (6), and Gurdack (4) averaging at least 2 rebounds per half. Avdalas (3), Bedford (2.75), and Dorn (2) averaged at least 1 per half; while Hammond (1) , Pasha (0.67), and Schutt (0.25) completed our rebound numbers.
Assists
Ballhandling and thievery are still looking good for the Hokies, as they completed this 4-piece with a steals adjusted assist to turnover ratio of 49:10, bringing the entire season to 123:10. Hammond has clearly demonstrated reliability with the ball, achieving an ATO of 20:5, and was the top thief, with 10 steals. So far he's actually purloined 10 more steals than turnovers committed. Hansberry has been a reliably successful passer for a forward, putting up an AATO of 18:1 for the season. Teams have started pressuring Avdalas more, and he led the team in turnovers with 10, but he was still the #2 passer with 13 assists.
Experience/Depth
The Hokies have settled in to a solid 7 player rotation, led by Hansberry (33 mpg), Johnson (31.25 mpg), and Avdalas (31 mpg) in getting at least 30 minutes per game. Hammond (29.75 mpg) just missed out by a minute, and leads Lawal (26.5 mpg), Schutt (23 mpg), and Bedford (22 mpg) in the second tier of minutes. Gurdack (12.25 mpg) and Dorn (10.66 mpg) round out the major contributors at the mid-bench. Pasha (5.67 mpg) and Jones (2 mpg) contributed the deep bench minutes.
Overall that indicates 2 guards and 1 forward eating up about half of all minutes, 3 guards and 1 forward get about half of all minutes as well. Mid-bench is 2 centers. Deep bench is 1 guard and 1 center.
Next Four
Traveling to South Carolina (89) will begin this book of four with what might be a Quad 1 game by the time the season has finished. Eight players have appeared in every game, with a balance of 5 guards and 3 forwards. That being said, this is going to be a very guard-heavy attack, as all five players averaging at least 20 mpgs are all guards. They have two 7-footers in Jordan Butler and Christ Essandoko, but the two play a combined 21 mpgs, score 6.8 ppgs, and pull down 4.4 rpgs. From beyond the arc, they have two relatively high volume shooters, led by top scorer Meechie Johnson's 6.5 attempts per game at 35.6%. Disrupting the passing lanes will be key for this game.
Next, the Hokies will welcome a currently undefeated George Mason (#61). This is a dangerous matchup with all starting guards being solid 3-point shooters, and 6-11 Riley Allenspach clogging up the middle. They are a little careless with the ball, which could be where the Hokies feast.
Western Carolina (#243) gets welcomed, next. Again, the Hokies will be dealing with a 7-footer down low. The Hokies will have a height advantage against the guards. They do have some decent range, but are pretty shoddy ball-handlers.
This window ends with Maryland-Eastern Shore (#337) who will be on game 5 of a 7 game road trip. This is not a scoring threat of a team, averaging just 61.2 ppg. Aussie Forward Joseph Locandro is their only scorer in double figures at 11.6 ppg. They do have a slight height advantage at the guard, with 6-8 Zion Obanla and 6-7 Trey Brown. In fact, only two Hawks that will see major minutes are shorter than 6-7. As tends to be expected from bigger teams, they have a very poor ATO margin, which should be a Hokie advantage.
Prediction
This prediction is predicated on the health of Lawal. If he's good, I think 3-1 or 4-0 is possible. If not, 2-2 is the ceiling.
The Women's Team
Also going 2-2, the Hokies now have a resume that added a Quad 2 win and Quad 2 loss, to go along with a 5-0 Quad 4 record. Unfortunately, the Hokies are 0-1 in Quad 1. CMD now has 25 career wins as the head ball coach, one win behind Carol Alfano for 4th best two-year start.
Scoring
Like the men, scoring for the women dropped off from the 83.25ppg in the last edition to 69.25 ppg this window. Wenzel led all scorers with 15ppg, followed by Daley's 13.75 and Baker's 11.75. The surprise in scoring has been the disappearance of Kayl Petersen, who went from 9 ppg to 0.5 ppg, the power outages in Freelon (15 ppg to 7.75 ppg) and Suffren (10 ppg to 5.67ppg). Really, those have been the only areas where scoring has dried up.
Rebounding
Rebounding also dropped by 10 rpg, which tends to tell me, coupled with who dropped off on scoring, that the Hokies have been getting blown out down low. Freelon still leads, but she's down to 8.5 rpgs. Only Nelson (5.3 rpg) and Baker (4.0 rpg) also have at least 1 rebound per quarter.
Assists
The ATO margin has dropped to almost even, but the defense has been up to the challenge, as the Hokies actually had more steals this window than last. Through 8 games, the Hokies have an adjusted ATO margin of 137:37 adjusted by 76 steals. Nelson is clearly the PG. Through 8 games, she has 51 assists; good for 13th nationally, and just 1 behind Athena Tomlinson for tops in the ACC, but has 2 fewer turnovers per game. In fact, the Hokies have two of the best passers in the ACC, as Wenzel is 10th. The two combine for over 10 per game.
Experience/Depth
The Hokies are what they are. Our starters are clearly Baker (30.25 mpg), Wenzel (29.5 mpg), Nelson (28.5 mpg), Daley (26.75 mpg), and Freelon (26.5 mpg). We have a a two player first-off bench with Suffren (16 mpg), and Wells (15.75 mpg). The midbench is led by Petersen (12.5 mpg), followed by Jenkins (10.25 mpg). Swanson (8.66 mpg) and Trent (5 mpg) are the deep, while Brecelj (3 mpg) is the final reserve. Of note, Petersen, Suffren, and Trent have had a dropoff in playing time by 7, 6, and 5 mpg, respectively. Daley has seen more play, by about 7 mpg, and Nelson has seen 3 more mpg, but that's about it as far as significant minute changes.
Next Four
The Hokies open this frame with the ACC/SEC Challenge, hosting Florida (40). This is a Q2 matchup, which could easily become a Q1 matchup by the end of the year. The Gators are led in scoring by 2nd in the nation's So G Liv McGill's 26.3 ppg and 6-4 guard Me'Arah O'Neal's 15.8 ppg, and Jr G Laila Reynolds' 14.2 ppg. These are the high volume shooters, as each take between 10 and 20 shots per game. As a team, they take about 20 shots from beyond the arc per game, hitting about 5 per game. With their size, they don't need to be taking deep shots, as the aforementioned O'Neal is one of three starters 6-3 or taller. Weirdly, their 6-4 C, Caterina Piatti, is only pulling down 4.2 rebounds per game and has no blocks. Being tall, they do have a tendency to be plundered consistently. However, this also means they, too, are efficient in the steals department.
Next, the Hokies open ACC play, welcoming Duke (13). I don't know why the computers like them so much, as they are 3-5, but here we are. They are led in scoring by 6-2 Toby Fournier's 15.8, and two other players scoring a bucket per quarter are 6-3 or taller. This is a team the Hokies should feast on, defensively, as they turn the ball over four times per quarter. It would also not be a bad idea to foul them if we are trying to catch up, late, as they only shoot 63.4% from the line, which is 304th in the country–but not dead last in the ACC (I see you Miami (312) and Clemson (352)). I think I see why they are 3-5.
Heading back out of conference, the Hokies continue their homestand with Presbyterian, whose wins have been against Warren Wilson and Erskine, and, as such, are rated the worst team in the NCAA by barttorvik. If there was lower than a Quad 4 game, this would be it. I'm not saying, I'm just saying they lost to Elon by 45. I will say, they do get all 13 players on their roster playing time, pretty consistently. I wanted to see how this team fares against Div 1 opponents. Against Div 1 teams, they are led in scoring by Sr G Ja'Cia Cunningham's 8.1 ppg and Sr G Aminata Tal's 7.7 ppg. The only other player scoring more than a basket per half is So G Morgan Boyd who is averaging 5.6. Five Hokies are scoring more per game than the Blue Hose's top scorer, and Nelson is only 0.1 ppg behind. In their lone game against a major conference (Wake Forest), they only managed to score 41 points. In their last game (UMBC), two starters, including their lone big (6-3 Laetitia Kamdoum) played a total of 12 minutes, scoring 3 points, and racking up 5 personal fouls. The Hokies should expect a stealsfest, as the Blue Hose give up 20 turnovers per game.
East Tennessee State (253) wraps up this edition with a December 14th visit to Blacksburg. Like Presbyterian, no scorer is averaging double figures, though Sr G Anala Nelson is averaging 9.9 ppg. The Bucs have three plates taller than 5-10, and those three platoon the post. They have a combined ATO of worse than 1:2, they don't block shots, they are bottom 5 in 3pt%, are 346th in FG%.
Prediction
I am not as worried about Duke as I probably should be, as their losses over the last week and what I'm expecting from this week, are against the #2, #3, and #5 ranked teams in the country, with a loss against #16 earlier this year. What I do see is a 13 point loss against a 5-3 South Florida team. I don't know what's going on in Durham, and for that uncertainty, I think we start the ACC campaign at 1-0.
Depending on how CMD is feeling, Presbyterian might see a record night for scoring (117 pts at Mercer in 1987, or 105 pts vs Houston Christian in Cassell, 39 in a quarter, 67 in a half, largest margin - 69, fewest points allowed - 24). Personally, I'd think we could be capable of halftime biscuits. ETSU should also be an easy win. Freelon and Petersen should be back to form in scoring and rebounding with this game and Presbyterian. Additionally, I would expect starters to be on the bench for a bunch of these games.
If we don't start shooting better, Florida will be recorded as a loss. The computers consider this a coinflip. ESPN Analytics gives us a 57% chance of winning. Bleachernation has Florida winning by 1. McGill will give the Hokies a foreshadowing of Hannah Hidalgo down the road. I want to give this one to the Hokies, but until the team can get out of their shooting slump, protect the ball a little better, and hit some 3s, I can't.
3-1, to improve to 9-3 on the season, 1-0 in the ACC.
Comments
Ladies finished third in their bracket so really was like a 6th place finish.
Ladies my biggest concern wasnt who was scoring as much as it was who was. Baker and Wenzel are getting their points but at what cost. Carleigh is shooting 37% from the floor and 30% from 3. Baker is 41% from the floor and 36% from 3. They shoot the ball over 24 times per game and score on less than 10. The team seems to rely way too much on the perimeter and barely attempt to get the ball inside to Freelon. Freelon and Daley are both hitting over 50% of their shots so really would like to see them get the ball more.
Carleigh continues to throw the ball away at an epic clip too. 3.6 turnovers per game. Combine that with her poor shooting and you get someone that gives up 10 unproductive possessions per game.
I can't explain the Petersen Black Hole. She has completely disappeared even on the rebounding part of her game. Her time on the floor has reflected it to. Last game she only played 7 minutes. Four points total in the last five games and those were single baskets against CCU and Niagara where the Hokies dominated.
One other concern is that Suffren did not play against Oregon State so wondering if there is an injury we dont know about yet.
I'm not sure if our guys have some nagging injuries that are bothering them right now, which would be not good this early into the season, but multiple of them seem to be really slow to help on D or even cover their man at all. Not aggressively attacking the boards and allowing players to get wide open to the basket on lazy screens and cuts drives me insane.
Lawal is in a boot and that concerns me. Hansberry missed at least one game in that past four game stretch I believe as well.
Mens side I put alot of the St Mary's loss squarely on Coach Young. The Gaels were not a transition scoring team. They want to go slow. Yet Young admitted post game that he purposely gave up on offensive rebounds to ensure they prevented transition baskets. It smacks of poor planning. Before we started fouling at the end, it was a five point game. Getting three second chance buckets in the prior 37 minutes flips the switch of this contest.
VCU was embarrassing because it was clear outside of Schutt none of them were ready to play. I dont know if it was the back-to-back, too much time at beach or bars or just a shitty attitude because it was early and not the championship game but that was a totally flat performance with multiple 4+ minute scoring droughts.
Personnel wise my main concern is Neo. He seems to have shunned taking the ball to the rim so teams are able to focus more on forcing the ball out of his hands. Less free throws, less layups makes him easier to account for.
Lawal injury is impactful but I didnt think it would be as big as it was with our depth at forward. Hansberry was less effective as teams could focus on him. Dorn seems to be a taller Wessler, clunky in the paint and has a tough time possessing the ball. Thought we would see more Gurdak against the faster VCU team but he only got 2 minutes. Not sure that made sense as he is a faster smoother ball handler in the paint than Dorn. Hammond had a really poor shooting performance going 2 for 10 in that last game. I hope that was just a one off.
Great take. The one thing I see from Neo that bothers me greatly is how many times he starts driving to the basket, has a clear path to the rim and he pulls up and passes the ball out. IMO, with his height, should drive to create one of three outcomes - a largely uncontested layup, a contested And1, or two FT's. He's does this multiple times a game and from what I've seen the better decision is to continue with his flow to the basket.
Yep this is exactly what I was talking about. Well put. I am ok with the occasional deke with step back jumper but that only works if you take it to the hoop most times, otherwise defenses are going to expect it and stay with him on the step back.
I picked a hell of a week to write about basketball.
Thank you for putting all of this together, I really appreciate it!
I was really hoping Coach Duffy would find some size before the season. Is this a Buzz-like preference for 6 footers or were we just not able to land a couple 6'4" and up girls?
Duffy started behind the eight-ball with this class.
She was hired in April of 2024, after Brooks took 6-5 Fr Clara Strack and incoming 6-7 Clara Silva, 6-4 Amelia Hassett. We added 6-5 Ramiya White, who still hasn't developed into a starter after transferring out in March. 6-4 Myah Hazelton also transferred out and also hasn't cracked a starting lineup yet. Those departures also emptied the roster of big bigs.
Trent and Jenkins are talented bigs at 6-3, but they are freshmen. So, too, will be Arianna Harris-Mott (6-4) next year.
Looking at the rest of 2026, we have a bit of a challenge. We're only graduating 2 players, Freelon and Daley, and we've already secured 2 commits. That gives us 13 players. 3 Srs, 4 Jrs, 3 Sophs, 3 Frosh. Of those, all of the bigs are Sophs or Frosh. I think we can consider Brecelj a big, but not Baker, as Baker has been more of a wing player, while Brecelj has played as a C for her Slovenian national team.
We have 2 more scholarships available, but would we want to delay development of our homegrown 4* bigs to try to grab out out of the portal?
So then that draws attention to 2027. wbbblog.com has Duffy on the hunt for some serious bigs, all of whom are uncommitted as of this writing.
In May of 2024, she offered 6-7 Jayla Forbes of Montverde Academy (FL) and 6-5 Khalia Hartwell of Westside (SC), following that up in July by offering 6-6 Harper Dunn of Corona (NM) and 6-3 Destiny Manyawu of Staley (MO).
In 2025, she really started, offering 6-7 Kendall Hulsman of Iroquois (NY), 6-9 Abuna Ruop of Norfolk Christian, 6-3 Samaya Wilkins of Purcell Marian (OH), and 6-5 Ogechi Okeke of Hightower (TX)
So that is 8 additional bigs that I know of that we've offered, including 1 in our own back yard. Of the ESPN Super 60 for 2027, all of the bigs are uncommitted. Hell, Duffy could only land 4 VA players in the 2027 class and wind up with a 5* wing, 2 x 4* guards, and 6-9 Ruop.
a 6-9 girl? Holy crap the hormones in the meat are getting out of control. Also Purcell Marian is just down the street, would be nice to get some more Cincy Hokies.
hey man TMI ... around here usually we just say "she's qualified" and move on
She's originally from South Sudan, and has reclassified from 2026 to 2027.
I would imagine she is probably Dinka; the people who chase antelope into exhaustion