Indiana shouldn't have happened.
More precisely: there is hundreds of years of evidence, across multiple sports, with thousands of teams, to suggest that Indiana would never happen. But it did.
The Hoosiers are national champions. They are the first FBS program to win its first national title since Florida won it all in 1996. That 29-year drought without a new natty winner was the second-longest among all Division I championship sports.
Bill Connelly has written about just how unprecedented this turnaround has been. People who follow analytics and recruiting have been completely baffled by it. IU is the worst program by win percentage to ever win a national title. They haven't just shuffled the pecking order of college football; they've completely taken a sledgehammer to everything we thought was achievable in college athletics.
The implications for a school like Virginia Tech are pretty groundbreaking. The traditional powers of the sport will always be relevant, but the cracks are starting to slip. This year's contending field was the most wide-open we've seen in years, and the supposed best conference in football with its gaudy TV contracts and unapologetic tampering completely flopped in the postseason.
Indiana's win means that the era of nihilism is over. What college football has been missing for the past 20-plus years is hope — the belief that your team is actually capable of playing for a championship.
Tech fans should ask themselves: why not us?
The New Bloods
To put into perspective how shocking this turnaround is, Indiana isn't just the worst football program to ever win a title. They might be the worst in any major sport.
I looked at every title winner in the five most-watched NCAA championship sports — FBS football, men's and women's basketball, baseball, and softball. The Hoosiers have by far the worst winning percentage among all of them.
IU came in ranked 125th among 136 FBS teams in all-time winning percentage. The previous worst program to win a natty in the modern era? 1990 Colorado at... 46th.
Most college sports are defined by haves and have-nots. This is especially true in football, where history matters: success begets success and failure lingers. It's the speed at which Indiana has rebuilt, and the fact that they've shattered the ceiling for what "three-star" programs are capable of, that has made it so stunning.
How did it happen? Well, mainly because Curt Cignetti is an elite head coach. That's been detailed elsewhere. But what allowed it to happen is a far more interesting question.
It Just MeansMeant More
The SEC's dominance from 2006-22 was remarkable, with the league winning 13 of 17 national championships. But it was also an aberration in the history of college football — a singular run at a unique point in the sport's evolution. And it might be over.
I would cautiously note that the SEC still has the best non-conference winning percentage versus Power Four teams over the last three years. But the league no longer has the juggernauts it used to, a fact that Kirby Smart openly admits. They've been shut out of the title game for three straight years, the longest streak since 1999-2002.
What changed? The popular narrative goes, "Well, now everyone can play the players!" This is a fun jab, but a little oversimplified.
Steven Godfrey of Yahoo Sports is perhaps the leading authority on under-the-table payments to college athletes, having written the seminal work on the topic, "Bagmen", in 2014. His short take is that almost every big program cheats (not the least of which is Miami — there's a whole Wikipedia page about it), but the SEC was probably better at it than everyone else.
The transfer portal is the bigger culprit. I've written before that the portal has led to more volatility year-to-year and evened out talent across major programs. The SEC has recruited the best simply because the south has the best players. With the portal, geographic proximity to talent is no longer a limiting factor when players can just leave if they don't like their situation.
And SEC or not, the portal and NIL have combined to make college football more about talent evaluation and asset management than shady southern boosters selling 18-year-olds on the allure of playing close to home.
The More Things Change
I don't mean to say that everything about college sports is great just because Indiana is good. Unlimited free agency isn't sustainable. The line between professional and collegiate sports continues to blur. But one might view the current climate as more of a bump in the road rather than an existential crisis.
A quick story.
In 1956, the NCAA formally legalized athletic scholarships, also known as the grant-in-aid. At the time, scholarships were considered a violation of the principles of amateurism (a fact of great irony now). The NCAA fought hard against schools offering financial benefits to induce recruits, but eventually caved as a way to taper over cheating, and because it had little regulatory authority. This probably sounds familiar.
However, there were no guardrails. For the next 17 years, teams could offer as many scholarships they wanted. As those recruits were not signed to any contracts, many were poached by other schools, which led to the creation of the National Letter of Intent in 1964. (This might also sound familiar.)
It didn't happen right away, but the 60s and 70s were dominated by major players. Alabama, Ohio State, USC and Nebraska won 12 titles from 1964-79. Later, academic requirements for incoming high schoolers were weakened, and scholarships were moved to one-year renewables with freshmen immediately eligible. This led to a period of unprecedented academic disregard and rule-breaking, which is why a large percentage of forfeited and vacated games come from that era. It was a disaster.
But reform eventually did come, and the sport saw a resurgence in equity. Colorado, Georgia Tech, and Washington all won titles in the early 90s. Then we entered the television megadeal/conference realignment era, and it switched again. Nick Saban came along, dominated, and then he retired because he wasn't cut out for the next new era. The SEC wasn't the SEC anymore.
The more things change, the more they stay the same... you know the saying.
Man at Work
Meanwhile, in the year 2026, James Franklin is putting together a heck of an offseason. He signed a three-year starting quarterback in Ethan Grunkemeyer, turned in a top-25 high school recruiting class, and (depending on which site you believe) a top-five transfer class too.
At Franklin's disposal will be a very strong NIL budget and an assistant coach salary pool that could rank among the nation's most competitive. Indiana is bankrolled by a billionaire; so what? Schools find all sorts of creative ways to raise money. The Virginia Tech Board of Visitors chose to make an investment in the football program, and nothing has to stop Tech from winning.
I would like to boldly claim today that the Hokies are capable of winning a national championship. That doesn't mean they will. Or that it won't be damn hard. But it's not impossible. As a student of history, I would never have said that before.
Curt Cignetti is a truly remarkable coach, but he's not a superhuman. It would've taken a superhuman to do this in the old era, because stories like Indiana literally never happened. To win a championship in today's age simply requires the right people and proper investment.
In the old era, you had to be someone. Now, you don't have to be anyone. And that's a beautiful thing.
Comments
Just last year I figured there was a 0% chance we win a natty in my lifetime. Outside forces and a seemingly significant financial commitment from the school has me thinking its no longer 0.
Because we are cursed and cant have nice things
"Because Virginia Tech" is all the write up I require.
That's what Indiana thought
I'm also wondering if the NIL and transfer portal era aren't significantly loosening the SEC's chokehold on the sport. Now three years in a row the Big Ten has won the CFP. And the SEC hasn't had a team in the national championship game for three years straight now. Obviously their "brands" are still big and they bring in top TV revenue, along with the Big Ten. But I think the new landscape is proving that, as long as your school can still find a way to make the financial commitment, and you hire the right coach, you can insert yourself in as a national contender fairly quickly.
Miami making it to the title game has me wondering if Franklin and VT can't do the very same thing. Obviously big picture, ACC leadership is still terrible and we have too many low or no brand football teams. But I am seriously starting to wonder if the P2 talk of them taking CFB and running away with it may be a bit premature.
I think the days of burying 5 star depth on all the sec teams are ending and those "bench" players are being spread out for the time being.... Makes everyone more exposed to injury luck but more parity across those willing to pay
The $ECs loss is all of our gain.
This is the right way of thinking, no one will replicate Indiana, is a fluke, and Franklin isnt the in game coach or talent developer Cignetti is. The 72nd most talented roster just won the national title. The next least talented was Michigan at 14th, and they cheated to do it. There are only 1-2 more unlikely championships in all of sports history.
But an elite recruiter with questionable 4th quarter decision making is right up are alley, so if miami can do it then we have a chance.
People will be analyzing what Cignetti managed to do for a long time. There are some key elements of it that VT is certainly well-positioned to execute.
We'll definitely give it the old college try.
What Cignetti has done is crazy. Six major contributors/starters were from JMU, all of which were essentially unrecruited by any P4 school. And although IU is now getting major talent via portal (ranked #2 in 2026 by On3), it only did OK in 2024 and 2025. In 2024, ranked 10th by On3, but only 68 average player ranking of incoming talent (2nd lowest in top 25). In 2025, ranked 13th and again only 68 average player ranking of incoming talent. IU completely busted the blue-chip ratio.
VT is building their team a little differently, and taking a longer view. They're building in a manner that is more similar to Miami, building up the OL and DL with young talent and developing them. Big difference from Miami is that VT could have a multi-year QB starter. VT could be playoff caliber in 2027 and 2028.
This year, I'd agree. JMFF has basically used the portal to shore up his '25 and '24 recruiting classes, creating the base he needs to be winning in '27 and beyond. I'm willing to bet that if you add the portal entrants to those two classes (and take out the portal outs), then VT's '25 and '24 classes will be close to top 25.
While Cignetti and others are paying out the nose for production in the portal, JMFF is taking the long view by buying controllable talent, intending to use his ability to recruit to retain the best talent of those three classes.
You cannot overlook the age gap between the teams last night. 23 year old maturity, habits, conditioning, discipline, muscle density, etc all factor in. Youth is a blessing and a curse, and Cignetti put a premium on maturity and proven production, and then layered in a healthy dose of discipline and belief.
Easy stat for that is to look at turnovers and penalties. UI was insanely good on both.
The core problem is that every college football program in America is wrestling with the same fundamental question right now.
Curt Cignetti represents the 2.0 version of Beamer after promoting Bud to DC. It's extremely difficult to find that in the open market, especially with great coaches leaving college for the NFL at a higher rate than ever before.
It's appealing to believe there's a non-zero chance of winning a national championship. That kind of hope is a solid business model for any athletic department: optimism drives ticket sales, TV viewership, merchandise, and overall engagement.
But realistically, sustained national-title contention requires capturing lightning in a bottle.
Shelton, you have a gift, and we are lucky to have you on TKP. Great job once again!
Great article. Thanks Shelton.
Great piece! The more I've learned about Cignetti and this IU program, the more I hear about how good they are at talent evaluation and getting "production" in the door. That is the intangible here that separated them from the pack.
Every P4 school should have, in theory, access to the resources needed to compete for a national title in any sport. Now it's seemingly up to the athletic departments to prioritize which sports get first dibs on these resources and ensure they hire staff who can utilize it to the fullest.
There are a large handful of schools who probably have similar articles being posted on their message boards today. "Why not us? If Indiana can do it, we certainly can." What will separate the successful from the failures is the ability of their coaching staffs to identify productive talent, prioritize and budget to maximize the amount of talent that can be brought it in at the right positions, develop that talent, and retain that talent.
Make no mistake, the Ohio States, Georgias, and Oregons of the CFB world still have advantages VT could only dream of. But what made the Beamer era successful was his ability to find a gap in that market (757 recruiting amongst other things) and capitalize on it. To Shelton's point, those gaps seemed mostly closed but in this new era they may be reopening. Can VT take advantage and step into one is a question only Whit, JF, & Co. can answer in the coming years.
I knew Shelton was Deablo Fan Account. I feel very validated.
I wrote before that VT was Indiana before (except we didnt finish the deal).
Our 1999 team was a remarkable story in its own right. We couldn't return because the system was still the system.
The difference is no one was looking at a VT model to copy because we were such an aberration.
Now, everyone is looking at Indiana because the system is destroyed.
(And throw in some karma that dumbass fsu and clemson sued their way out of relevance and a guaranteed share of BCS $$..... idiots.)
So, yes we have a shot.
That 1999 team had WAY more talent on it than this IU team. I think all but one starter on defense went to the NFL and all but Moore was in the NFL for 3+ years.
Underrated reference. Take your leg.
Side note - I used to really like Bud Davis. But this was the laziest take I've ever seen:
IDK if Lazy is even the right word. It's conspiratorial, unfounded, and just utterly stupid. It completely ignores that reality that:
I think how IU targeted transfers goes against how most people thought, but is this team really different than Bill Synder's philosophy with Jucos, or Jim Grobe RS every player except one (LB Curry). They built senior laden teams that others didnt replicate.
Im not sure what the difference is, is cignetti better at coaching, or was the field weaker due to NIL/TP or did IU have a better chance at filling holes due to NIL/TP.
I took as fairly tongue-in-cheek. But they are the biggest outlier ever from a recruiting rankings standpoint, even in an era where recruiting rankings don't matter as much.
They do matter, what's important now is keeping them or bringing in more. Talent is talent, and despite Indiana's meteoric rise, the blue chip ratio does matter.
"don't matter as much"
FWIW, the narrative I read multiple times during leadup to the Natty was that Miami turned down Mendoza, not the opposite.
Your point 2 was IMO the single biggest factor at play. I REALLY hope Franklin can keep our transfers in the bus. He was clearly loading up for the future. That was certainly the right play in the before times, however given the portal / NIL world we now live in I worry we won't be able to keep kids satisfied and staying through graduation.
Miami passed on Mendoza out of high school (despite Miami being Mendoza's first choice). However, Mendoza was Miami's #1 QB target out of the portal (source).
Going to quote myself here, because not to overstate things but I think it's one of the best things I've ever said on this site:
Time to put the case back in.
My signature begs your pardon!
.......maybe 2nd best
Would have been better if they had gone all in on recruiting and paying assistants that could get us there.
Unfortunately, they tried to go "economical" on paying assistants, and it didn't work.
It's terrible how bad the pay at VT has been it was actually a lot better under pry and that's not saying much.
Torrian Gray left and made 3x what Fuente was going to pay him. At least he went to and SEC school, Wiles got a massive pay raise at NC State. Dude coached some all acc DL and one 2nd team AA. He wasnt just a Bud guy. How do you severely underway some one they worked for you for 20+ years.
This is what I have been trying to say for the past month.
Look at the age of the players.
Franklin is stacking the team with players about the same age. Young guys with 3-4 years of eligibility.
He wants to peak the team for the year his QB is on his last year of eligibility. In this case 3 years.
Watch the class that predominates in the 2 deep. In 2 years we'll be at the ACC championship. At 3 years is the goal for Natty run.
I'm trying to compile data for a bar chart to track the classes but I think I have to wait for roasters to come out, I can't gather it right now.
Work schedule is too tough.
This assumes:
I think he's betting that (1) he will and (2) he can.
I think he's betting that his players will follow him if he decides to leave in 2 years...
I think he's betting that Franklin thinks VT is an appropriate place to stay and do this as long as VT keeps it's apparent commitment as declared by the board this fall.
Yes.
Franklin himself said that when BOV showed him 'the folder' with VT's plan he was interested.
Not so much the feeling good, but the specifics.
I think when Franklin was let go, he was shocked, then upset, then a slow smoldering pissed. And then he starting thinking what do I need to win this thing... and had a long self-assessment; and then an assessment at what a program would take to win with the changes.
We.just happened to have the folder which went along with his take; and here we are.
From well above your comment:
And then you wrote this:
If the 1st quote is true then VT and JMMF jointly have to have a plan in place which figures out how to keep a dominant %age of these players here for 2-3 years.
The 2nd quote says that serendipity occurred and that VT's and JMMF's strategy aligned. I can't imagine these would dovetail so perfectly, but maybe there was enough overlap that JMMF could help VT staff modulate their strategy to align with his and that resultant strategy has a better plan of execution success.
This makes the most sense to me. It's a long haul with some embedded risk, hopefully they have risk mitigation plans already in place - they will need them.
This strategy is far from assured. Strategy's based on the shaping functions in place now must be able to adjust to changing shaping functions - changing shaping functions will happen.
"roasters".....they'll get afta ya!
I'd like to add to this that a major issue that's going to come out of this is Athletic departments are now going to be expecting coaches to win some kind of championship (conference, national, at least make the playoffs) by year 2 no matter what school they're at. For example Rutgers hires a new coach in 2027 and he's already on the hot seat and the end of 2028 because he hasnt made the playoffs.
I think a lot of good coaches are going to be 'on the hot seat' very early in their coaching tenure because AD's are going to say "well if Cignetti can do it at Indiana why can't you?". And I get the point of your article that 'anyone' can do it, But Cignetti wasnt joking when he said "I'm a winner, google me", he's literally won a championship at every level he's coached at. That's not normal, that's not even 'great'. He' might even be beyond the level of "exceptional". Because exceptional can still have multiple examples...He might be a "one time in a never again" field
Bad example, I am not sure anybody but Schiano ever wins at Rutgers.
Hey man Rutgers won the first college football game ever so I could argue they're the best program in college history I'm just sayin
Why not us?
Because as an institution we don't have the stones to go all in to the level it takes to get over the top. Franklin will get us back close, but it will be up to us to make to make some, quite frankly, uncomfortable decisions to get us over the edge.
We'll need to stomach willing to buy players from other schools. We'll need to stomach paying backup players 6 figures just to keep depth. We'll need to stomach players not giving a shit academically and that being ok because they ain't on campus to play school. We need to be comfortable testing every legal boundary in recruiting and having a bunch of good capable lawyers on retainer to tell the authorities to fuck off if they ever threaten us.
The years of doing it the right way are over. What Indiana did is an aberration and will be looked back upon as a very odd and unique blip on college football in the big picture. But what we can't ignore is that the sport is wide open for anyone to come in and claim a title right now. There are no dominant programs. There are no juggernauts. You get into the dance you have a legit shot.
This might be a controversial opinion, but what Indiana did will never be replicated ever again. They are the exception, not the rule. Curt Cignetti is going to get a lot of coaches fired over the next few years because "Indiana did it, why can't you?"
Indiana took a lot of 5th and 6th year players that were basically fully developed grown men especially on the lines of scrimmage and was able to dominate all the much more talented teams in the playoff, while also being the best coached team in the country, they were exceptional at talent evaluation and found a bunch of hidden edges, they also never beat themselves and something that will get overlooked is they were the best tackling team in the entire country.
Curt Cignetti is one of one, and any program who has never won a national championship who suddenly has national championship expectations because "Indiana did it" is going to set themselves up for failure because the 72nd ranked most talented team will never win a national championship ever again, they are the exception and not the rule, never base expectations off of the exception, they had a very unique set of circumstances that they took full advantage of, the best coaching in the sport, and a 1st overall pick at QB.
I'm very excited about the future with James Franklin, to the point that my friends joke that I "Jump for James" but to act like all of a sudden we can win a national championship just because Indiana did it without looking at context is setting ourselves up for disappointment, the game is still about talent acquisition and coaching them up, and James Franklin can definitely do those things, I just think a lot of programs need to understand Indiana will never happen again. Sorry for the rant.
Your comment and Alum's above is exactly why I am not going to look at next year's schedule and "predict" a W/L record. I think it's an easy way to set one up for failure and let down.
However, I would be lying if I didn't admit I'm fully dipped in JMFF magic. I can't wait to see how our team is coached and how to our team plays next season. I think it will have some pains/bumps in the road, but will have plenty of shiny moments throughout that will foreshadow what's to come.
Until then......
Right.
they way to enjoy next season is to watch early and identify players you want to watch and be alert for improvements in their game.
Identify things you like on the macro and watch as they progress. Identify problems in the macro and see if they improve or get solved.
Watch the game with other Hokies.
He has done enough that I renewed my season tickets for next year. There had been a big internal debate.
I agree. In fact I'd go so far as to say that - of the two teams in the championship game - Miami is the one whose blue print is most relevant to us.
Miami:
That's a model VT can follow.
Funny enough, UVA is attempting the Indiana model for the second year in a row. But Tony Elliott ain't Curt Cignetti
100% agree. I said a month ago that Miami had the blueprint on how to succeed in the ACC. I was focusing on the player personnel when I said that, but also agree what they did off-the-field is just as relevant.
Get the financial and institutional support to build, develop, and retain the trenches with HS and young portal talent, and identify and pay the elite skill players via the portal.
Cignetti's teams punch well above their weight class due to superior development, system and coaching. Franklin's teams are build on traditionally strong talent, but his teams play to their talent level. If he can evolve to get his teams to be greater than the sum of their parts, Franklin has a shot.
We saw miami with a coach known for playing at there level snd some time way less be 1 poorly blocked play away from winning we just have to recruit.
I'm going to watch Franklin build us a system and see if he can cross the threshold.
I pray that the people at VT can recognize if he's learned how to progress beyond that build and can cross us the threshold to a Natty.
What development? >60% of the snaps were given to players who have been there 2 seasons or less? I know some guys were with him at JMU, but still...
What's unique about Cig's scheme? Their defense is pretty vanilla, they just play well.
I really think Cig separates himself with (1) elite scouting and (2) elite game day coaching.
I think Franklin is actually pretty good at scouting (except at QB... *nervous gulp*). He's also gotta improve in game coaching. But we just saw Mario Cristobal go a who season without an indefensible in game coach move... so it could happen 🤷♂️
I've heard the opposite, that the defensive scheme is very complicated. That's why it played so well with the JMU transfers who knew the system. Can't recall who said it.
Maybe I was thinking of their offense? SZD did a scheme school episode on Indiana/Miami.
Regardless, I don't think IU did anything super innovative on either side of the ball. It's not like Cig invented Match Quarters, or the Blur, or Air Raide, or the Coastal Carolina triple, or the Pavia/Kill misdirection...