So Joe posted a great question in a recent forum topic titled "What's Tech's ceiling, what are reasonable program goals?" He went on to include informative stats about our program in comparison to all of the elite and mid major program across the country (definitely check it out if you haven't done so yet). There were a good amount of comments regarding our goals and our ceiling. Most believe our ceiling is a national championship, while still being realistic about the pieces in place. Some basically said that we shouldn't hope for a national championship with our current pieces unless we get lucky.
Regardless of how you feel about our current coaching staff, players, national respect, recruiting efforts, etc. I know every single member of this site wants a National Championship. So my questions are: Do you guys think we have what it takes to eventually be a national championship program? If changes were made, do Key Players and Hokie Nation believe we have enough tangibles and intangibles to one day bring a crystal ball to Blacksburg? What's holding us back from being the elite program we all wish we were?
If it's so close, why aren't changes made to put us in a better position? And if certain changes are made, does that change opinions of those that think a NC isn't realistic?
**This is not intended to be an Anti-Beamer piece. I honestly would like to know why passionate Hokie fans would think we're not that far away from our true goals, but at the same time think it's understandable/tolerable to not make changes to move forward.**
Comments
FYI
I know "national powerhouse" is a strong expression, but I don't think "Can we win a national championship" is a strong enough question. Staying power > one and done.
If you examine national champs there are two basic roadmaps.
1) Be a traditional power
2) Have a magical season with a/several unique once in a lifetime superstars in a BCS conference having a down year.
If the Hokies want to win a national title, the ACC is a better path than the SEC because the path to the title game is easier in the current format. The missing piece from a talent perspective is big time offensive line recruits. That requires a legit OL coach with a track record of producing NFL quality linemen (Todd Washington from Baltimore would make sense as a Hokie alum). Then, you can recruit outside of Virginia, as Virginia has a very poor history of producing quality offensive linemen. The rest of the talent is there, especially with good coaching to mold it.
Once they transition to a four team playoff (and ultimately I think they will go to 8 or 16 team playoffs,) then coming out of the SEC would be much more critical. It would give more access for Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina recruiting grounds and the level of competition would toughen them up to win in a playoff format. But (and I will believe it forever) that the will to win at VT does not match up with the will to win that you find at top SEC programs. I think that SEC may ltimately be a better path, I think if the Hokies got there, they would be a mediocre team, similar to Tennessee and Arkansas, rather than a top power.
So it's highly unlikely we win a national championship unless we find another Vick? You're not the first person to tell me this but you're the first Hokie to tell me this. Can't deny the truth in the statement, but I still feel there's so much parody now that well run systems can beat the traditionals on a good day.
But this feeling I have continues to grow that I have such high hopes for no reason. I feel like coaching changes would put us down the right path, but then I constantly hear from outsiders (and now one of the most knowledgeable insiders) that we've reached our potential. This is depressing. I don't know what to believe in anymore.
I don't think its as bad as it sounds.
Same goes for these schools who miss their stars...
USC - Reggie Bush
Texas - Vince Young, Colt McCoy
Auburn - Cam Newton
Florida - Tim Tebow
Oklahoma - Jason White, Sam Bradford
Ohio St - Troy Smith
It's not like VT is Baylorish. Baylor I think won't ever repeat what kind of season they had with RG3,
This is going to sound obvious and simple but VT just needs to win more games...I'll keep it more recent
The gimmies
James Madison and East Carolina for example. VT should have won these games. Not losing games like these is pretty easy to fix, if it hasn't been already.
The key out of conference games
Kansas, Auburn, Michigan, Boise etc. VT should have beaten all these teams (I know they did beat Michigan...) Each one of those loses was hard in the sense that I thought VT was still the better team even though they lost, I know that makes me sound like a total homer, but I still think that way.
The Champions
LSU, USC, ALABAMA. yea VT lost to Alabama and USC, I don't think VT was as good as either of those squads, but they could damn well play with those teams, and are capable of beating teams of that caliber, which is top shelf. They were beating USC at the half and Alabama through the 3rd Quarter. LSU I know was another story but that just happens sometimes, even to the best of programs. Even then a star was baptized in fire with Tyrod Taylor.
So VT has had some blunders, but who hasn't? The National powerhouses have lost to Louisana Monroe (bama), App state (Mich). There are teams like ND that have had TERRIBLE seaons, Texas got blown out by Oklahoma, Ohio St got blown out by USC, USC got blown out by Oregon and Stanford. Some powerhouses get temporarily halted (Florida with Ron Zook).
I guess my point is I don't think VT isn't far off from being on the next level.
The main problem for me is figuring out when it'll happen. I don't think anyone believes we could comeback next year and win it with the team we have right now. So if we look ahead, Beamer will probably retire when his contract is up, who's the next coach? If it's Shane then Bud is leaving that day, and if Bud leaves then we're screwed.
I do think that a National Championship is possible, but these next few years are crucial for Tech football, either make a run under Beamer or we need to pick the absolutely perfect coach to follow him, if we don't it could be a few years before we can contend again.
If Bud leaves and Grantham is hired, I think they will be ok.
me too
As HC or DC?? I think Grantham would be a good, legitimate HC hire ... and i'd have to think that he'd be interested. A lot of people are talking as if Shane Beamer is destined to be the next head coach. In my opinion, he doesn't have the experience to carry a program like VT ... yet
Media and national recognition
The last first time winner of a national championship, I belive, was Florida State many years ago. In the eyes of the media you are not a powerhouse until you win a NC. You don't get recognition and thus enough big recruits if you are not a powerhouse. You can't "be back" in the national picture.
We don't have a 80,000+ stadium, a big enough national following (band wagon), good enough coaching staff, recruits, money, and positive media to be considered a top 10 team every year. We need to be a consistent top ten team to be in the mix.
Sure, we could have a lucky year where everything clicks and the talent peaks, a favorable schedule, losses by enough top ten teams, and no coaching blunders when the pressure is on. I don't think the odds favor it though.
The telling sign is that we are having a bad year but the national press isn't making a huge deal out of it. There is not a national expectation that we should be contending for a national title every year. If there was then we would truly be a powerhouse.
We have been exceeding expectations in many ways but under performing at critical times. Can we win it all with the current staff? I doubt it but I am always hopeful. They make too many mistakes and can't adjust when the pressure is on. Could we ever get a staff that was good enough? Not likely since we are not a national powerhouse.
We have not yet arrived.
I think we could get a coaching staff that would make us a perenial top 10 ten, but it would take some smart hires of young up and comers who have the goods and weaver and steger being willing to pay for such a thing.
I think the program has a good enough national reputation we could recruit good coaches but are the powers that be willing to do what it takes?
Beamer change your thinking
VT is capable of winning a national title under Frank Beamer and a HC change is not something I feel should be looked at or considered. We have all the right pieces in place except for on the offensive side of the ball. We've heard it a million times: fire Stinespring. Hire someone who shows promise---Tony Franklin is a name that jumps out. The man was a running back at Murray State right before Beamer coached there and played along side Bud Foster; his offense is ranked 2nd in the nation currently. Find a guy like him with VT ties or someone who has a track record of success and knows their offensive blueprint like the back of their hand. Franklin runs an effective spread---not that we need to pick the flavor of the month--but just find a guy who really knows his offense and will stick it out for Beamer's remaining years. Newsome, sir, it made sense at the time to hire you but you've shown us 7 or so years now of very poor results. Thank you for your efforts but please step down and insert Mr (anyone out there...there are probably a dozen men who can improve the o-line...and recruit).
I would say in two years with a talented and effective HC, line coach and Bud FOster amped up with all of the success in defensive recruiting we've had recently, along with a capable QB and improved line...we can really begin to whip teams and turn heads and get into the play offs and get Frank and the rest of us our trophy.
Or we can continue to rank in the 80s in offense and maybe win the ACC and possibly an orange bowl once or twice....or sink in the ACC.
We ARE a National Championship program, we just don't have the
offensive philosophy required to win it. You asked the following: "What's holding us back from being the elite program we all wish we were?" One word- stubbornness - plain and simple. That is Coach Beamer's blindspot, and I am not convinced that Shane is capable of changing his father's mind. Some folks have argued that his loyalty to his staff has played an important part in our success, and I would agree with that - up to a point. The point where being loyal prevents one from possessing self-awareness of a particular situation. Beamer does not believe our struggles are caused by the offensive staff's incompetence. He is more inclined to defend them and most times this defense includes bashing the critics. Fans are whacked. A person can't fix a problem if they don't even acknowledge that there is a problem.
From a performance standpoint, our offense has been lacking for some time now. We have no coherent strategy. We may script the first 10 plays, but that is not a strategy. Oregon has a strategy - win the game in the first quarter and demoralize your opponent into capitulation. What does Tech do? Cook spaghetti and throw a bunch of plays at the wall, and use whatever sticks. Talk all you want about recruiting the right players, tougher scheduling, better execution. All of these things matter, but until Tech gets the prerequisite taken care of first, it will continue to be for naught.