9. The Logan Thomas Project: Heading into last season, Virginia Tech's towering QB Logan Thomas was hyped by some NFL draft analysts as a potential top overall pick but 2012 quickly deteriorated for the agile 6-6, 260-pounder so much so that it seemed every nationally televised game the Hokies had, Thomas would end up trending and it wasn't for anything positive. The Hokies' supporting cast was already suspect, perhaps forcing Thomas to try to do too much. Thomas' accuracy, already a question mark with some folks, looked even shakier in 2012. He went from completing 60 percent of his passes in 2011 to just 51 percent while throwing six more INTs. He also completed just 45 of his passes in Tech's final three games in a dud of a season for the program. Frank Beamer shook up his offensive staff and hired Scot Loeffler, who has Tom Brady's seal of approval from their days at Michigan even though the Auburn faithful won't miss him after his Tiger QBs were dreadful in 2012, to fix the offense and polish up Thomas.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/bruce-feldman/21817314/top...
Comments
He'll rebound and terrify the FBS landscape once more.
Hope you are correct...
But to "terrify" the FBS, he better be able to complete above 60% of his passes, and really he needs to get close to 70% to really be a dominant passer. I sure hope he starts out well against Bama and continues upward against the balance of the ACC. Would be awesome if he rebounds 9% above his sophomore year stats after sinking that much below them as a junior.
Be nice to have a running game not focused on the QB as well, that might help him concentrate on passing instead of running for his life all the time.
I doubt we'll see a Beamer Offense with a 70% completion rate.
Why not?
A run-first mentality doesn't mean you can't be efficient passing the ball. In fact, I'd say it sets you up to be even more efficient. I know we probably won't see a 5,000 yard passing season under Beamer, but that doesn't mean that play-action off a strong rushing attack with an accurate quarterback and solid receivers couldn't yield a high completion percentage.
Now, will we have that next year? Seems doubtful. But I also wasn't expecting 7-6 last year (and be honest, you probably weren't either). So who knows...
Because historically that's not how run-first play action offenses work.
Could you devise a scheme where a team runs a lot, and uses play action for short to medium safe passes? Yes. But it wouldn't be successful. The point of the play action is to open up the vertical passing routes, which has lower completion rates.
Is it possible that Beamer will have a seventy+ percent completion rate team? Sure. Do I think that day will ever come? No.
Fair enough
Your points are well taken - I wasn't thinking in terms of the kind of routes that work best with a run-first/play-action mentality, and that they are by their nature lower percentage routes. I only meant to argue that I thought 'run first mentality' is more likely to impact overall production (yards and TD's per game or season), than completion percentage.
In any case, despite how logical your argument is, let's both hope you're wrong! An extremely efficient passing game would be an indicator of a very good season for us, I have to imagine (assuming normal constants of strong run production, defense and *wistful sigh* special teams hold true).
Redskins Offense
The Redskins Offense this year was all built off of run fakes. Yes, not typical pro set playaction but it effectively got receivers in matchups that resulted in wide open throws for RG3. Basically, a good run fake results in a wide open throw, so yes I think its possible.
I was about to make the same point. RG3 rarely threw in to anything more than 1 on 1 coverage, because the run threat was so great (and he made the right read most of the time). Logan might not be as good of a passer, but our offense can definitely have a big run threat
70%
I think the debate should be clarified. Is the debate over whether or not we can have 70% completion rate or just be an efficient passing team?
Hokiefan591988 didn't say we can't be an efficient passing team by being run heavy and/or utilizing fakes. He said 70% won't happen and in all seriousness, 70% is a very high mark. Tom Brady didn't get 70% last year, Peyton Manning did get 70% last year, RG3 didn't get 70% last year. Run heavy teams like Texas A&M, Bama, and KState didn't even get to 70% last year. They were approaching it but 70% is a tough number to attain. However, it would be foolish to say we can't be an efficient passing team just because we focus on the run (which Hokiefan did not say).
My only point was that a 70% completion rate was unrealistic under Beamer's preferred scheme.
Tech's passing attack could certainly be both efficient and effective though, and fans should expect/demand it to be so. If Tech has a 60% completion rate while throwing a large percentage of the passes down the field, it will have an exceptional passing game.
I think VT and the new staff try to do what Alabama does - - strong defense, run-first offense, simple play-action passing.
Granted, we don't have the same horses, but I do believe that our WRs are comparable and that Logan Thomas has a higher ceiling than AJ McCarron.
PASSING COMP ATT YDS TD
A. McCarron 211 314 2933 30
AJ obviously had a excellent year last year. He completed 67% of his passes for 30 TDs and almost 3,000 yards. The passing attack at Alabama is incredibly simple. AJ typically throws to wide open receivers in single coverage, and I rarely noticed him go through any sort of progression.
In my opinion, Logan and Loefller should be expected to achieve the same exact thing. The key for next years offense will be to develop a run game, and segue that into crisp, effective, play-action passinig. The 2013 Logan Thomas project will be dependant upon the offensive line / JC / Trey / Drew Harris (?) and their ability to keep safeties and LBs respecting the run game.
Our play action game was terrible last year. Some observations as to why:
1. We could not run between the tackles. Play action works best on quick-hitting, between the tackles, dive looks. Our play action was primarily out of zone read and stretch plays - - these slow developing plays gave opposing LBs and safeties too much time to diagnose and react. We could not run between the tackles because our RBs were not ideally equipped for that and our G-C-G combo could not make any room.
2. On several occasions throughout the season, Logan play-actioned to Manti Teo's girlfriend. On many more occasions, his ball fake was very lazy. One common thread among elite quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Peyton, Flacco, etc) is that they strive to make play action look authentic. This NEEDS to improve next year, and I expect it to do so.
VT does not have the horses
Don't have the same speed, size, and strength to match up or dominate against top teams. But that doens't mean VT can't win. With execellent execution and timing VT can win against bigger and faster players but it requires a lot of motivation, dedication, effort, practice, and high standards.
Ball Fake
I noticed that a lot last year. DBs didn't even think twice about biting because it was so sloppy and expected.
The TD pass to Knowles was probably one of his better ones and the DB still caught up to tackle/interfere with Knowles, who is supposed to be the speedster of the group.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGPmdBGKBTc
All the motioning and ball faking was a cluster all season. I remember the second series in the bowl game Demitri Knowles (I think it was him) lined up on the wrong side of the formation, Thomas notices' it and is yelling at him to get over to the right side and as Knowles is switching sides he opens his arms for a ball fake as he crosses in front of Logan. Logan just stares at him for a couple seconds and shakes his head as he was lining up. It was the perfect microcosm of our offense.
I remember a good portion of the time Logan would ball fake to one side and the running back would go to the opposite side. You're not gonna fool many people faking the ball to air
I was with you until you included Flacco as an elite QB. He may be the highest paid player in the league and may have won a superbowl, but not elite.
Flacco is DEFINITELY not elite. He can make the throws but he doesn't do it often enough.
It will definitely be interesting to see how both Loeffler and Logan mesh. Hopefully both can push each other to get rid of the demons that were subpar seasons for each last season. I think item number one is going to be re-instilling confidence into a player that looked completely alone out on the field last year.