First off....I'm completely over the anOSU loss. I was encouraged by a ton of things in that game, which have been brilliantly written about by the in-house writers, as well as the members here. I've been away for the better part of last week, so please forgive me if this has been discussed, but I couldn't find this particular question as a topic or within an individual thread....
Now that a week and a half has gone by and everyone's emotions from the game have passed, and we can all look back with an objective opinion, my question is this:
If Brewer doesn't go down....do you all think we win the game? I realize it's all conjecture, and doesn't matter now, but I just cant shake the curiosity of what you all think....
I'm looking for honest gut reactions....no O&M glasses, no excuses, no coulda's, maybes, etc....just a pure percentage ratio of what you feel......
I'll start off by saying i think it was 55% to 45% we pull it out.........
Comments
I don't know if we would have won if Brewer stayed healthy but we sure as hell would've kept it close. Maybe I'm remembering it wrong but it seemed like the offense was on its way to another solid drive when he went down and once that happened it collapsed like a house of cards.
I'd go so far as to say I was 85% confident we would win before his injury. Taking off the glasses and subtracting the emotions of being there I'm still probably around 70 or 75%
I think he was hit after throwing a pass on 3rd down which fell incomplete so I don't think the drive was going to last much longer...
I don't think we would have won that game if Brewer stayed healthy.
huh, woops. Would've sworn on a Bible that Motely had a play before we punted. Go bourbon!
No, but the D held the next series, a poor OSU punt later, and we got the ball back basically where we left off, you'd have to feel pretty good about starting a drive in OSU territory if Brewer was still in the game
In my opinion, this is the point that really killed us. We got the ball back on THEIR 40 and couldn't even get a FG attempt. We had picked up some yards on 1st and 2nd down and were right on the cusp of FG range when Motley took a sack on 3rd down to force a punt. I think even with Brewer's injury, had we managed a Touchdown or even just a FG on that drive, we still could've had a chance to win. That would have given Motley a great deal of confidence and the offense as a whole confidence that we could still score and compete with OSU. I know a lot of people will say that the JCC fumble was the real turning point, but I believe it was that drive that started at the 40.
Tough to say. It certainly was feeling like the magic was coming back. Lefty said he was excited about the 2nd half adjustments and I believe him. The realist in me thinks the game would drive into the fourth quarter with OSU putting up a late score to win since the D didnt play that great. That being said, if you get to the fourth in a close game anything can happen.
Going into the game, I felt like it would be decided by no more than 10 points. Couldn't tell you I was confident of a win, but I thought it was possible. The defense wasn't playing exceptionally that night, so they were going to give up some points, but probably fewer than 42 if the offense stayed on the field longer. There was a bit of magic there, so I think if Brewer stayed in we were probably going to keep it really close. Maybe a loss on the order of 35-31 or a very (very) narrow win.
This is kind of what I thought after the game. I think having Brewer stay in the game is worth 7 more points for us and possibly 7 less points for them. And I think that's a pretty conservative look at it, our offense with Motley at the helm did not help in keeping their offense off the field.
This would have had us at a 35-31 loss and I think there's a good chance we might have done better than that.
Lefty claims that they had a plan for the second half that would have taken advantage of what their defense was doing but didn't have a chance to use it when Brewer went down. So from that comment, I like to think we had a good chance.
However, Braxton Miller came alive in the second half and I'm not sure our offense would have been able to keep up. Brewer or not, Lefty's plan or not, I don't think we would have came away with a victory. It would have been closer but no cigar.
We were clearly in it (down 4?) when MB went down, wadr to espn.
We beat them last year at their place, 100% luck, of course.
Playing them 1/2, down by 4, I'd say (had the injury not occurred) we win it 25-30% of the time.
Yes.
Just a hunch but have felt that way since the second the game was over. For the second year in a row, the Buckeyes seemed to have no answer for Brewer.
TOP definitely goes up so, defense isn't on the field as long as they were.
Lefty was excited about adjustments he made 1/2 time.
Brewer was hot and we had a guy open on every pass play.
I say we're in position to win, whether we do or not is another thing entirely.
85% in position to win, 50% win.
Yes. Because the D feeds off and responds to the momentum and positivity the O creates. I fully believe the D would've made less mistakes. Foster and his unit (up until Brewer leaves) continually were making effective adjustments to counter Meyer even into the 2nd half. I don't think we hit the W by as much as last year. Oh yes, it would and most likely be closer. But I believe we would've won by as much as 10. But I'm ok now. They're (fans) aren't a terrible bunch and aside from that d*ckless statement from Jones and Thomas on twitter (of which I have an even stronger and more hit-home response to but will withhold) there's nobody I'd rather share the series with. I'm ok splitting the series (though I do want a rematch). Plus, we got 'em first. And they can't take that away. NOBODY can ever take that away.
If Brewer doesn't go down and we played like the first half or better given Lefty's adjustments I'd say we'd have a significant chance at winning. We definitely wouldn't have lost by more than 10 points, but that's how the cookie crumbles....
I predicted an 11 point loss prior to the game. We lost by 18. I think Brewer was worth at least 7 points.
I think, in the end, it would have been a 1-score game. I think a bit more from Bud's unit could have done the same. I think both would have won it for us.
Think it's a close game but don't know if the defense can keep OSU from scoring. As with most don't know if we get the win but definitely a close game.
Oh, why not.....It goes to OT, we go first, settle for a FG....they get to the one-yd line first down. They hand off to Elliott and he gets creamed by Dadi, fumbles and fuller recovers! As I said, why not?
I feel we would've lost a closer game.
Previously mentioned, Braxton Miller woke up in the second half...
I hate to say it, but I still think we would have lost. The score would definitely have been much closer, like maybe 7-10 points of difference.
It did look like the offense was starting to click, especially with how efficient Brewer was looking. OSU's defense looked like they were giving up some space in the passing game and Brewer looked like he was finding it nicely. With Brewer, drives would have taken longer, keeping OSU's offense off of the field.
However, it's clear that OSU's offense had some big time play makers. I think with the way we played on defense, OSU's offense had a 30-40% chance of making dangerous play, with us stuffing them the rest of the time. Cardale being a big guy with a big arm and with talented guys to throw to also did not help much.
While I'm very pleased for us to be 1-1 against OSU, I'd really like the team to have the opportunity to play them again (whether its this season or a couple of years from now). CFB and co appear to be laying down a solid foundation (actually building depth), maybe something special around the corner.
How about if osu's line got called for the obvious hold on elliott's (faux) td run? It's a different game completely then.
And no grammar police i'm not gonna take the time to use caps on this tiny phone. I'm still mad, kind of.
Go Hokies!
I hate thinking about this, just sucks so bad for Brewer. The only two things that still bother me about that game: (i) I believe Brewer would have played well in the second half and kept us in the game and (ii) that BS pass interference call on Edmunds in the 4th makes me so pissed off. That was 3 and 10, would love to see where he tugged on the jersey.
Sorry, rant over.
I can't say we win but I firmly believe it is within a 10pt game at the end one way or the other. Leoffler has come out and said they had some good stuff ready for the 2nd half that they had set up but they didn't get to run. I give us a 40% chance that we win that game but it woulda been close.
I think OSU's offensive success would not have changed, but if Brewer kept the ball moving and we scored commensurately it would have kept the ball out of OSU's hands a lot more. No telling if the turnovers would have still occurred. My gut tells me OSU was the better team and they played well enough to win, with or without Brewer. But it might have been a 7-10 point margin of victory.
I can't call a win, but I can call a much closer game. I think with Brewer in the VT offense scores two more times (6-14 points). In any scenario regarding those two scores, you most likely take two possessions away from OSU thus making the game much closer.
I think you can say that VT would have been in the game. I don't really think you can say they had more than about a 50% chance of winning with any certainty at all.
All you can say with certainty is that without Brewer, they didn't really have a chance to win.
I'd say 35% chance we win but 100% it was closer. Our defense for some reason couldn't stop a nosebleed in that game and I'm not sure that changes significantly had Brewer still been in. I think had he been in still, we lose by 7-10 points not 18.
I believe without a doubt in my heart that if Brewer stays in, VT wins the game. We started off very slow, but for once our coaches made the adjustments, and we started opening up the playbook. Now I also believe they should have had Motley way more ready with a package just for him. I feel like our team almost gave up after they realized Brewer wasn't coming back in. I have never seen our defense get gashed like that, except maybe Fitzgerald back at Pitt. But what if I also believe that we can win out and the crazy possibility is Ohio State is our only loss.......
Lose a close game. Their athletes are better than ours and it would've shown in the 4th qtr like it did when we played Bama in '09 and had the lead going into the 4th.
Honestly, I don't think we win because we still had no response for OSU once they opened it up with Braxton in space. I know that there are those that would say that if we were not on the field, we might not be as tired, but I still say no. We got some pressure on Jones on some throws, but zero sacks, ZERO. We couldn't bring him down. Once Miller started getting to the edge, it was going to be real tough to think we stop him and Jones and Elliot (I know he went quite after the 80 yarder). But we gave them hell for over 30 minutes, so what do I know.
It is fun to think about because Brewer looked damn good. Guess we will be left to wonder.
Game changer that no one has talked about or is talking about - the JC COLEMAN FUMBLE
Motley being the QB has completely made people forget about how big that fumble was.
OSU scores on their first drive of the half off of miscommunication from our DB's. Then our defense holds them the next two drives/the whole third quarter. Our offense has great field position for all of our next drives as well. And then... JC fumbles, literally the next play = Braxton spin move.... GAME CHANGER
I don't ask myself what the end result would be if Brewer had finished, I ask what the end result would be without that fumble. That to me is the turning point in the game, not Brewer.
I think it stays a 1 score game that is exciting to the finish, but given how the defense played in the second half and the moves that Miller showed off, I don't think we would have ended up winning. But a healthy Brewer and a closer score would have painted things a lot more positively for us (including votes received in the polls) than how it did turn out.
They just had better athletes all over the field, and our inexperience on defense got exposed with their adjustments down the stretch.
Once Brewer went down, the game felt like it was over. The players looked like they felt that way too.
So on that alone, I think Brewer not going down makes it a much different ballgame. Do we win? I still say we would have been in the 35-40% chance category. When you are playing a team like OSU, sometimes all it takes is one play to change a ballgame (unfortunately we got the negative version vs. the positive).
I think the odds are 100% more likely that Brewer could have delivered "that play" than Motley.
Lightning doesn't strike twice. I never really thought we would win the game with or without Michael Brewer. I did, however, expect to keep it close. Margin of win/loss +/- 10 points at a maximum. I'm confident that with Brewer at QB for all four quarters, this game would've been decided by less than two touchdowns. That seems to be the general consensus.
Oh no. They just turned it on in the 2nd half. We're just lucky they took a QTR off.
If brewer stays healthy, worst case we lose by 2 scores, best case we win by one.
Reading some of these comments is really disappointing to me as a Hokie fan. I understand that we don't have a full starting line up of 5 star blue chip athletes but come on fellas! We were hanging with them and had the lead. Brewer stays in the offense keeps Miller and co off the field. This is why you play the game. You're never out of the fight...
OMG THANK YOU!!! This. Right here. Same sentiment. Our D held them scoreless for the entire 2nd qtr and the majority of the 3rd. Don't give that crap about our D "not being able to stop a nosebleed."
Yup and this fight was 4 quarters.
I honestly believe if Brewer stayed healthy we would've won the game. There are some intangibles that the offense had with Brewer in game and we would have done enough offensively over 4 quarters to eek out a win. What we saw after the unfortunate injury is what we've been used to for awhile -- having the D keep us in the game. There's only so much our D can bring before we tire and peter out. Our offense has to put pressure on the opponent and it showed second quarter.
We never had a chance to adjust with a healthy Brewer in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Sam Rogers would have had another touchdown or two. Malleck would have caught a wheel route TD again. We would've had migraines from all the screaming and euphoria.
But yes I am over the loss because I think of it as two separate games with separate out comes. We won the first half game 17-14. We lost the second half game 28-10. Including the first game and at the end of 6 quarters, we still beat anOSU. With a healthy Brewer, it would've been 8 quarters won. Overly confident? Not at all.
So now I wait to see who is going to hang 24 or more on anOSU. Bud gave the defensive plan how to do it. Now it's up to some other team to look at our offensive plan, then scheme and execute their way to a victory over anOSU. Granted that no other team executes our scheme like us.
Won not done? There's still alot of football to be played. But some team is going to hand anOSU their loss this season.
Going off on a bit of a tangent/rant here, but that saying is one of the most arrogant things that I've heard in a long time. Maybe it's just that I've been spoiled by the blue-collar lunchpail work ethic that our coaches try to instill in our players. I like to think that if/when VT ever gets to that level of success, the motto would be something a bit less "we already know we're going to win again."
I just can't find it in me to have positive feelings for this year's OSU squad. Between the arrogance and the outright disrespect for others on social media that resulted in zero punishments on their players, they just rub me the wrong way. I don't like it when VT players do it, either, but when you're already on top it just comes off as worse.
/rant
Now that I got that off my chest, let's go beat some boilermakers!
Yup.. I never liked that phrase either...i too am not trying to get off topic but...
Reminds me of another individual who made similarly "overly confident" statements:
I wonder how that turned out? No it was just 2...not 3 or 4...5? Say no more....just 2...
No offense to the talent and player...just be humble about it all...
Our defense might have been on the field less if Brewer stayed healthy, but they still would have given up 30+ points. I think we would have been looking at about a 2 TD loss, with no garbage time scoring which would have made the game feel much different than it ended up actually being.
With Brewer healthy, I still think we lose. We were giving up too much ground on D, and we were the benefactor of some fortuitous bounces. I certainly believe it would have been closer, but we still lose by 14.