Editor's Note: Aidan's been writing and keeping us updated on HokieBall for the second half of the season. Enjoy this ACC Tournament preview he wrote. --Joe
The ACC Baseball Tournament starts today and finishes Sunday, and for the first time since 2010 Tech will be making a postseason appearance. Arguably the best baseball conference in the country, the 8 team field for this weekend's tournament boasts 6 teams ranked in the Baseball America Top 25, promising a great weekend of baseball in Durham.
The tournament consists of two pools of four teams each; every team will play one game against the other teams in their pool. At the end of play on Saturday, the team with the best record in each pool will move on to the championship game on Sunday. If two teams have the same record after Saturday's games, then the tie breaker will be the decision of their head-to-head matchup.
Pool A:
#1 North Carolina (47-8, 21-7 ACC, #6 National Rank)
Many writers thought that North Carolina would be the best team in the country coming into the season, and they did little to disappoint in the early months. However, they have struggled recently, dropping their last two ACC series to Georgia Tech and Virginia. Despite falling in the national rankings, the Tar Heels captured the ACC regular season title and have added an extra spark to the lineup with standout freshman Skye Bolt returning from a fractured left foot. Also expect productive weekends from junior draft prospects, Colin Moran (.369/.496/.612) and Kent Emmanuel (9-3, 2.28 ERA) as they look to carry UNC like they have all season. Hobbs Johnson (4-0, 2.18 ERA) and Benton Moss (8-1, 3.21 ERA) round out a superb Tar Heel rotation.
#4 NC State (42-13, 19-10 ACC, #9 National Rank)
The Wolfpack's season has mirrored the performance of sophomore ace Carlos Rodon, who is 8-2 with a 3.86 ERA. After a lot of offseason hype, Rodon struggled more than expected at the start the season but he has settled in and been stellar in his last few starts. Likewise, NC State has heated up as of late, winning 24 of their last 27, after a less than admirable start to the season. The dominance of Rodon and the explosiveness of Trea Turner (.383/.463/.589), should allow the Wolfpack to make things interesting in Pool A.
#5 Clemson (39-17, 18-12 ACC, #18 National Rank)
Clemson is the only team in the tournament who the Hokies have not seen yet this year, but it would have been a heck of a matchup. The strength of the Tigers is their pitching staff which features a rotation composed of three underclassmen. Sophomore Daniel Gossett and freshman Matt Crownover have been spectacular, boasting a combined 16-5 record and 2.20 and 2.05 ERA respectively. The Clemson offense has been just good enough to get by this season, led by sophomore catcher Garrett Boulware (.310/.378/.473). The Tigers need their bats to step up if they are going to have any hope to advance out of this group against North Carolina.
#8 Miami (35-21, 14-16 ACC)
The Hurricanes squeaked into the 8 team field on the last weekend of the season, taking 2 of 3 games from Georgia Tech. Pitching has been no problem for Miami this season; their top two starters, lefties Chris Diaz (6-4, 1.58 ERA) and Bryan Radziewski (8-2, 1.64 ERA), rank second and third respectively in the ACC for ERA. The real barometer for success for the Canes will be whether or not the offense can consistently produce runs. The Miami lineup does not have a single starter who has an average above .300 and they have the second fewest runs scored in the entire conference, leading only Boston College.
Pool B:
#2 Florida State (44-11, 20-10 ACC, #7 National Rank)
The regular season Atlantic Division champions, Florida State can beat you many different ways. They have a great pitching staff who has posted the 11th lowest team ERA in the country (2.68) and they have also scored double digit runs 12 times on the season. The Seminoles are led offensively by DJ Stewart (.328/.438/.510) and Marcus Davis (.311/.393/.524), but two sport athlete Jameis Winston could prove to be the difference maker this weekend. Scott Sitz (9-1, 1.66 ERA) is a senior looking to make a deep run in the postseason in his final year in Tallahassee.
#3 Virginia (45-9, 22-8 ACC, #5 National Rank)
When the Cavaliers came into Blacksburg in late April, it was the most excited I had been to see a baseball game in a long time. In my opinion, Virginia is the best team in the ACC and provides the most well rounded attack the Hokies have seen all year. Mike Papi (.408/.547/.669) is one of the top hitters in the entire country, despite missing part of the season due to injury. The Cavaliers also have an elite rotation, featuring Scott Silverstein (8-1, 3.19 ERA). Their pitching staff isn't quite as dominant as UNC or FSU, but could still provide a problem for any team on any given day.
#6 Virginia Tech (35-19, 15-14 ACC, #21 National Rank)
The Hokies have one of the most powerful lineups in the conference, trailing only Georgia Tech in team home runs (48). Tyler Horan (.344/.392/.625) and Andrew Rash (.327/.382/.572) pace Virginia Tech offensively, as they look to be able to out slug their opponents in the coming games. The reason the offensive will be so key this weekend is because of the inconsistency of the starting pitchers. Joe Mantiply (5-0, 3.14 ERA) and Devin Burke (9-3, 3.49 ERA) have had solid outings, but the third starter spot is still up in the air. Brad Markey (4-4, 5.40 ERA) enjoyed a good beginning to the season, but has struggled as of late and may find himself out of a starting spot come tournament time.
#7 Georgia Tech (33-23, 15-15 ACC)
When I saw the Yellow Jackets play earlier this year, they were hot; very hot. Prior to coming into Blacksburg in early March, they were 12-1 and averaging 10.1 runs per game. Their trip to a snowy English field did nothing to slow them down as they took two of three games from the Hokies by a combined score of 27-16. Since then, however, the Yellow Jacket pitching staff has fallen apart and they dropped two series to teams outside the RPI Top 40 (Costal Carolina (41) and Duke (69)). The offense has been potent, led by Daniel Palka (.344/.443/.665) and Zane Evans (.364/.430/.618) are 1 and 2 respectively in the ACC for home runs. Buck Farmer (8-4, 2.80 ERA), the ace of the Yellow Jacket rotation, has been the only sign of consistency from the pitching staff.
Predictions:
Pool A Winner: North Carolina
Pool B Winner: Virginia
Conference Champion: North Carolina
In a rematch of last weekend's series, North Carolina will be out for revenge after being upset at home by the Cavaliers. I believe the Tar Heels will get the last laugh and take home the ACC Tournament trophy after winning the regular season title.
All games seen in the schedule at the top can be seen on ESPN3 (except Sunday's game on ESPN2). The official tournament webpage is here.
Go Hokies!
Comments
Okay, explain this to me because I don't get it...why is UNC the #1 seed, FSU the #2 seed and UVA the #3 seed when UVA has the better conference record than both and a better overall record than FSU? Somehow that just doesn't line up to what I would have expected...
UNC has a better record, with 21-7 being 0.750 winning percentage and UVa at 22-8 with 0.733, so UNC is first place in Coastal. FSU is first in the Atlantic but has a lower record, so they're #2. Someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but it looked weird to me so I looked up the full standings to be sure.
This is the same justification I came up with too. I think it would have been a lot easier to understand if they just ranked the top 8 conference winning percentages, but this adds incentive to try and win your division.
Indeed. For a while, I had operated under the assumption that the baseball standings were like basketball, given that the season schedule is also a lot more like basketball (play anyone in the conference) than it is football (play your division + 1 from the other division).
Okay, that makes sense. I didn't do too much looking into it, but just saw that UVA had 1 more win than UNC, didn't pay attention to the fact that they played 2 more games than UNC (presumably due to weather cancelling games). Also, I didn't realize that Baseball used the divisions like we do in Football. Now it all makes sense.
6-1 Hokies, top of the 6th
10-1 Hokies, 1 out still top of 6th
10-1 top of the 8th
#LOLUVA
Top of the 9th so much for the slaughter rule
What's the 3-way tiebreaker in the ACC Tournament for pool winners? I know a two-way would be head to head, but I'm just thinking of ways we can get in. Win out obviously, but what if we beat FSU tomorrow and then lose to GT but GT loses to UVA. That would put us and GT at 2-1 and then if UVA beats FSU they're 2-1 also. What's the tiebreaker there? Higher seed seems like a BS tiebreaker to me if that's what it is.
Found this over at Virginia Tech's 247 page in an article written by Kyle Bailey:
Should there be a tie atop the pools, the head-to-head winner between tied teams advances. Should there be a three-way tie, the following tiebreaker is in place, per an ACC release:
a) The team with the best overall conference winning percentage in regular-season play will advance.
b) The team with the best head-to-head conference winning percentage among the tied teams in regular-season play, provided all teams were common opponents during the regular season, will advance.
c) The team with the highest seed in the respective bracket will advance.
So in that scenario, UVA would move on to the championship game since they have the better regular season conference winning percentage (.733 to Tech's .517). That being the case, there is no way that we would be able to advance out of a three way tiebreaker, so let's just win out like you suggested!
Hokies beat uva 10-1! It's not exactly "38-0, bro" but it still feels oh so sweet considering uva is #5 in the country. That gives the Hokies 3 out of 4 wins over the cavs this season! BOOM!
Game. Great way to start the tournament
No better way to start a postseason than beating UVA like a rented mule.
Nice Mike Lange shout-out! Need to beat Ottawa tonight and put them on the brink after that debacle last game.
Id say 7-3 was a pretty good recovery
That was just a good analogy. It was definitely not intended to be pro-Penguins. In fact, I've never had anything positive to say about them. I'm a Caps fan, currently rooting for the Kings. Because god forbid a Washington sports team do well in the postseason. They need to do a hockey version of Damn Yankees.