The stats look good:
3rd in yards per play allowed
1st in scoring defense
5th in 3rd down percentage
4th in ESPN's defensive efficiency ratings
3rd in Football Outsiders' Defensive S&P+ ratings
But they've played some putrid offenses (Tulane, NC Central, Northwestern, Boston College, Army). The only top 100 offense they've faced this year is Georgia Tech.
I was really impressed when I watched them vs Ga. Tech, but we know GT is having a down year. I know NC State also has some great defensive stats vs a soft offensive schedule and we were able to move the ball pretty well on them.
So I'm wondering how much of Duke's defensive success is based on the schedule, and how much of it is based on their skill. Are they really 'best defense in the nation' material?
Comments
I'm as confident in judging Duke's defense and I am in judging our offense this week.
^^^^^ Which team do we get this weekend?
It isn't a top 10 defense but its more than enough to give us trouble
Cash by himself makes their defense pretty scary, but I don't think it's as good as advertised. Solid for sure, but I think we can beat it.
Bucky was all over Cash in last year's matchup. Caught the GW TD matched up against him.
Like I said somewhere else, if you're giving up < 10ppg after six games, you're pretty good regardless of who you've played.
FBS Total Defense through 10/22/15:
Rank Team
3. NC State
4. Duke
Need more be said?
via GIPHY
Total defense is so lazy
FEI: Duke 20th, NC State 100th
S&P: Duke 3rd, NC State 36th
Simple and lazy are two different things.
What were NC State's defensive FEI and S&P ranks before playing VT?
Don't know. FEI only came out this week
I think whatever Joel's statistics tell me to think.
Duke is bad against the run and good against the pass, when adjusted for opponent. Whether or not we can actually do something about that...
"Duke is bad against the run and good against the pass"
So we should expect McMillian to get the ball about 10-15 times and Brewer to throw 40-50 passes.
Sounds about right.
Two words: bubble screen.
Here's your damn turkey leg. Dammit GuitarMan
*le sigh*
It's going to be a beautiful day, leaves are peaking, maroon t-shirts will stretch across the horizon, and the Hokies are going to show up and finally drop 30 on somebody not named Purdue.
35-17. It's on.
Better than VT's offense...
I think they're legit, but in any case Cash is a monster and dangerous...3 FF.
It's not like our offense is much better than those listed. They're good enough to shut us down if we don't click.
The question is does the OC and the OL have the balls to actually pound the rock with consistency. I am not convinced. 50/50.
I am going to "will" a Hokie Victory!
I think Brewer sparks the team and we win big in this one. And by big I'm saying 14 or more. Defense was crushed in the filmroom after watching Miami film and seeing how close they were to actually allowing us to win WITH the offensive mistakes. They come out with a chip on their shoulder. Dadi finally gets a sack.
McMillian gets a healthy dose (at least 20 please) of carries. If we don't come out to play all bets are off and we could lose a close one. However I'm still in the camp of "We have no business losing to Duke.....ever."
No result will surprise me.
Ditto. All of that.
If Duke has corners that can take 1v1 on our #1, #2 WR today... we will be in trouble.
The recipe for beating us offensively is shut down 1v1, #1, #2, put additional resources on Bucky and stopping the run.
If our WRs get 8 or more catches, we win this game with 30 points. Duke will have to compensate and this will open the game for run and TEs, etc.
Mebbe I'm wrong.... just feel like teams are following a pretty simple formula against us.
good enough to beat us at home in 4 ots