So I've heard from several #sources that the east coast is going to get some wintery weather this weekend. I have heard conflicting forecasts ranging from less than a half inch possible to 12 inches. I am travelling from DC down to Blacksburg this weekend by way of Roanoke and I'm hoping to get a detailed forecast from TKP's very own expert meteorologist. Please help.
Thank you!!
Go Hokies!
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I've been summoned! Haha it all depends on the temperatures and where you are. I think its going to be primarily a wintery mix with maybe a few inches of accumulation. It should start friday evening and most of the accumulation won't occur until Saturday evening you should be good to go and most of the accumulation will be in the Shenandoah valley region. Again though it won't be that significant it kinda fell through on us. May I ask where you're leaving from?
I would like to warn that it might be coming down as snowflakes/sleet I just really don't see it sticking much. I would leave in the afternoon though it shouldnt be an issue at night either but the temperatures could drop just a little bit on Saturday night from the precipitation. I hope this is in depth enough! If you still have any questions feel free to reply and drive safe. Virginia drivers can be insane in any sort of inclement weather
Thank you Thank you!! We are leaving from Rosslyn in the evening on Friday (probably 7-8ish) and taking 66E to 81S all the way to 581 to Roanoke. We'll be travelling into BBURG via Salem late morning/early afternoon Saturday. I have pretty good tires and 4WD though I'm not expecting to need it. I'm really not too worried about the weather but I have to convince the Fiance that everything will be okay.
Thanks for your expert input!
Yeah you'll be fine I'd be more concerned about virginia drivers panicking than the conditions
Eshiben5, big fan of the weather knowledge you're always dropping on us here at TKP. Same question as OP, different route. Traveling Friday afternoon (from Charlotte) up 77 N to 81 N. I'm a little worried about running into ice or accumulation especially in the Fancy Gap area. Any weather info?
If you leave in the early afternoon you should be fine. I would definitely try to get up there before it gets super dark as a few pockets of ice might develop. I still don't think the odds of it are all that great of happening but better to be safe than sorry! You guys should be ok though and if you're really concerned I would take a route east of the blue ridge mts. It will be WAY to warm over there and will be all rain/mix that won't stick AT ALL
Thanks! I'll upload the best upvote gif I can find when I'm not at work but for now take some turkey legs!
Im also doing DC to Blacksburg tomorrow. This was convenient
Who wouldn't want to be going to Blacksburg?
Haha I know I'm happy to be back!
I miss Blacksburg.
Last weekend I ended up on 29 S going through Charlottesville and Lynchburg on my way back to Georgia. It was the closest to Blacksburg I've been in a couple years and I was surprised at how homesick I got seeing the mountains again.
Wait pump the brakes..there should be absolutely nothing about Charlottesville that reminds you of Blacksburg.
Well, I drove past Scott Stadium last year and all I could think of were Hokie victories...
Exception found
I feel you. I know a lot of people, myself included, who grew up in the mountains and then when they move away they miss those big piles of dirt.
Totally read "Putting out an ABP for eshiben5." I envisioned someone leaving a trail of croissants, pastries, and made to order sandwiches to ensnare our beloved forecaster.
For a trail of ABP, I would gladly make stuff up about the weather.
All you really have to do is say "eshiben5" 3 times into a mirror in the dark and you will summon him from what I hear. Just have a whiskey ready for him or he'll be cranky.
Just make sure you give me the whiskey AFTER the forecast
Eshiben5 walks away from the weather green screen, sits down, and..
I do love scotch, its officially become my new years drink. scotch and a little club soda, i could down it for days. Now I just gotta work on my facial hair, I couldnt grow a stache like that if my life depended on it
Perfect now were talking
That won't work. You'll need your hands to pantomime cold fronts and such during your forecast. Maybe something like this:
Got a little worse than I thought hope you made it OK
I was riding my motorcycle far side of Salem when I stopped and happened to check my email. They closed schools for a cold rain. WTF?
I had to drop off the bike to grab a car to go get the kids from school. Fecking obnoxious that is.
Just rained the whole way. It wasn't bad at all. I am actually thankful that weather channel was predicting an apocalypse because it kept people off the roads so we had light traffic.
Bump.
I was going to start another OT post, but realized this one is almost exactly the same, right down to the date! Just a year later, crazy how nature do dat...
Much smaller snow event this time, but any news regarding the DC / Baltimore area? Flying in Friday night (hopefully) for a week, and the various forecasts have been all over since its still a few days away. Thanks!
I hadn't looked at the dates, and thought this thread was about this weekend until I got to your comment...
that new year, it'll get after ya. yeah its crazy almost a year later theres another "storm". have a leg for any confusion i caused.
Haha..weird! Strange how weather works. I saw the title of the thread first and thought "hmm..that looks oddly familiar" and then I saw who authored it and I was kind of confused for a second before I realized it must have just been bumped from a while back...good find sir!
Yeah same as what VBVTUSCG said, I am flying out of DCA to Orlando for a Disney trip and cannot miss saturday morning. What do you think the chances of a 6:30pm flight making it (delays that night are fine, just not cancelled).
not a meteorologist or expert, but saturday might be tricky. the snow might start tapering off by the evening, but delays could be abundant after maybe building up through the day. Unless it snows significantly, i dont think (re: hope) they wont start cancelling flights. best of luck!
From a meteorologist friend of mine: odds are not good for flights late Friday and into Saturday from the DC area. Leave early Friday if at all possible.
haha i was actually debating putting something up before I saw all this. Luckily for you guys my semester hasnt started yet so I can answer mucho questions
While the event seems much smaller at the moment than this time last year, you must remember most forecasts (myself included) believed we were getting no more than a foot of snow. Noreasters can be fickle, and exact amounts very difficult to forecast. The euro was this time last year was forecasting 26" of snow and nobody bought into the hype. Once more we're looking at a forecast of 27.7" of snow from the euro.
Normally I'd say dont buy into the hype train of the Euro, however other models are on board as well. GFS has roughly an 18" maximum snowfall in areas, really the primary difference between the two is where the bullseye will hit, with the GFS falling over the chesapeake region (which I hope to god I nail this forecast or else my girlfriends parents will kill me) and the Euro goin right up the good ole shenandoah valley. Somebody is getting a lot of snow just waiting for the bullseye to land. (might be why some meteorologists are a little hesitant from what I've heard)
My bets are hedged on the shenandoah valley getting pummeled, by no other evidence other than my gut based on similar previous systems and my utmost trust in the euro. Which means everyone up to DC may be looking at as much as a foot of snow Friday. The storm should start late thursday night in the blacksburg region and Fridayish (like pretty early friday) in the DC region. I'll have more info shortly.
Sorry if this seems scatter brained I'm literally talking and explaining the same points for 4 different parties, and I'm pulling up model data and trying to compare and contrast everything at once
If you guys want to keep tabs here is the badger weather model site (tech doesnt have one up yet but I do know its in the works) if you can make sense of this. I would share the site I get the prettier version of the euro from but its behind a paywall and I'm pretty sure thats illegal (dont wanna be the weather version of shockwave around here)
http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_models/Models.htm
for those of you in Blacksburg, get your toilet paper and food (lots of ramen) and steal some lunch trays because I have a feeling you're getting quite the storm this weekend
all aboard the hype train!
Thanks. I love you.
Interestingly enough, my Fiance is supposed to be heading down towards Roanoke this weekend (again) but looks like the weather might be putting a big 'ol 'NOPE' on that plan. We'll see what happens, I suppose.
Yeah ill put out a big boy post on wed. Morning once the entire system and all of the models have totally zeroed in
Is this an annual trip to SWVA? it will pretty much be 12 months on the dot from your OP...
haha..funny how that is. full disclosure: My Fiance is from Roanoke (parents still live there) and our wedding is in Lexington. The venue has food tastings around the 25th of January every year. We've been engaged since 2014 so we went to the food tasting at the beginning of 2015 cuz we could and it was free. She's supposed to go again this year to actually pick out the food we're going to have at our wedding this spring. I'm staying behind because I have stuff I need to do here. She is planning on going with her parents and then spend the rest of the weekend in Roanoke with them.
Very cool. I grew up in Augusta County, 20 mins or so in Lexington. Lexington is a cool city to host a wedding- lots of shops, restaurants, and things to see around there. Best of luck with the planning - my wife and I are newlyweds (May '15)- it's a lot of fun when the party actually arrives. Planning can be frustrating, but fun at the same time.
With the latest eshiben forecast, the trip to that area may be postponed. DC will go through a snowpocalypse with anything over .05" of snow on the ground.
True story. Maryland drivers turn into blithering idiots as soon as it becomes too cloudy, or too sunny, or if there is a slight breeze or chance of precipitation. If anything actually falls from the sky (including light mist), there is absolute pandemonium.
I just moved to North Bethesda, MD 5 months ago, and can already fully support the validity of this statement.
same story in NOVA. The whole region, really. Too many cars in too small of a space. Add weather to the mix and it turns into a disaster in no time.
True; I grew up in NoVA. But when I moved to MD, it was a whole new ballgame. Just amazing to me how these people got licenses and have managed to stay alive this long. The things I see every day along my commute continue to surprise and amaze me.
I guess I haven't' spent enough time driving in MD to know the difference. I grew up in Charlottesville, spent 4 years in BBurg, and then 4 years in Asheville, NC before moving to Arlington. I don't necessarily think that there are worse drivers in one place than in another. I just think that the bad drivers stand out more in heavily populated areas. There are waaaaay more people so you've got a better chance of encountering a crappy driver here. If you consider how many stupid drivers you see in a week and compare that to how many drivers you see in total the percentage is probably just about the same nation-wide.
Keep Asheville weird.
I love that town.
I do too - great food, beer, mountains, rivers, downtown shops, and people
Yeah man Asheville is great! I loved it there. I miss it. I still have friends down there and we try to get back there to visit when we can.
Beer.
Everywhere.
The River Arts district is awesome. I could also set up camp in the corner of Wicked Weed and just have my mail forwarded there.
I grew up in NOVA and spent my time commuting from Manassas to Alexandria for school, to Reston for soccer, and to McLean/Langley, Springfield, Fairfax, Arlington, and Mount Vernon to hang out with friends.
Now, I live in PA and travel across the turnpike to hit 70 West to get to 270 to 495 to get back to VA to visit friends and family.
Let me say this as clearly as possible:
The only person in the world that is more stupid and reckless than Florida Man is Maryland Driver.
It doesn't matter what the weather is. It doesn't matter what time it is. Nothing matters. Driving in Maryland is an exercise in risk management. I've never seen a more incompetent group of reckless drivers and dangerous vehicular buffoonery than on the highways in Maryland. Maryland Driver is bad and they should feel bad.
I commute from North Bethesda to Herndon and back each day for work. I leave Maryland with Maryland Drivers, and return to Maryland with Maryland drivers via the same route that you describe. I have no words to emphasize the magnitude of the truth to this. I've had Maryland Drivers purposely run me off the road because they have no care for others while driving.
I used to commute into Quantico for work.
A friend from Md used to do the same. Once, he changed lanes next to me (cut me off badly) without using turn signals.
I asked him, "Why do you not use turn signals, friend."
He answered, "Why would I want to let me enemies know what I am doing."
I grew up north of Baltimore.
I spent my adult life living in Tokyo, San Diego, Los Angeles, Norfolk and Richmond.
I would never, ever move back to MD or the DC area due to the driving conditions. The drivers and the roads in MD are the worse I've seen in the U.S. with the possible exception of roads in eastern PA.
The roads in PA are pretty bad - and Maryland roads are closely behind. From what I've seen, Virginia takes pretty good care of their roads, minus a few areas. But the beltway in VA is much, much smoother than the beltway in MD.
Yeah the roads in PA are turrible, our state and local don't do nearly enough to maintain them. I don't notice a particularly poor quality to the drivers, except the abundance of Elderly Driver and Yokel Driver (where 'Yokel Driver' is the person who stays in the right lane, right next to you, as you're trying to merge onto the highway even though they are the only car on the road they can't be bothered to shift lanes to let you on).
Can confirm. Live in Baltimore.
Current status:
Holy cow....I am not smart enough to click on the link. I randomly clicked on one link then another and I saw the US all black with pink clouds and I got scared and closed the tab immediately.
awesome, thanks again! was pretty close to staring a new post but i figured its still a ways out to forecast and i found this old thread.
seriously though, i get just as hyped reading your forecasts as i do french's film reviews. both have a ton of knowledge and contain passionate, informed writing. looking forward to wednesday!
Toilet paper and ramen...you kids don't do bread and milk anymore? ;)
Once again it looks like I live too far north to get more than a few inches (still getting used to that), but things can change.
"for those of you in Blacksburg, get your toilet paper and food (lots of ramen)"
A friend of mine calls it "the neighborhood French Toast party" as the milk/bread/eggs shelves will be bare in Roanoke.
Milk sandwiches
"Big storm's coming, better get all the perishables!"
I've never understood this.
yeah, you know, before they perish..?
"It's gonna snow! We need to buy milk and bread!"
"Why?"
"I DON'T KNOW WE JUST DO!!!"
With Bread, milk and eggs you can make pretty much anything, or at least fake it.
Can't make steak. Missing a major food group there.
To make fancy french toast while waiting out the storm of the century. Duh.
Without power....
Was hoping someone would post this. I love it.
Whole milk is like pouring yourself a tall, frosty glass of Elmer's glue.
Whole milk or no milk, I say.
Fuck it. Let's just drink half and half.
To be honest, I could. That stuff is delicious.
Can't wait for this!!
Thanks bro for the update bro!
Not sure if anyone follows this guy on Facebook, but he's making some interesting predictions:
EDIT: More of his post:
According to him I'm in the 46" area? WAY more than any other prediction, I've been hearing for a little over a foot in my location, not nearly 4 feet! I'll believe this guy when I see the snow on the ground.
These maps aren't predictions, they are most-case scenarios. I live pretty near you so I've been watching this closely. I think we are in the 12" minimum area with a 30% chance of that going as high as 20" and a 10% chance or less of it getting to 30".
But wherever the bullseye hits, whether that is Snowshoe or Rockingham or Front Royal or Hagerstown or Fredericksburg....they will get hit with more than 3'. With all the models coalescing today, it's pretty clear that our region is going to be hit pretty hard and somebody is going to get a historic storm.
dayum! I'd be okay with 3' of snow. I'm not expecting any more than 3" though...these things are so hard to predict.
Again this is what happens when the euro goes loko and meteorologists buy into the hype. The numbers game is still a little tricky to forecast. Just last year I saw a storm go from "totes McGotes gonna be 15 inches" to..."oh oops maybe 3" but the fact that the gfs is in board is looking promising. Look for the amounts to taper off a little bit tonight and tomorrow morning. Big boy update will come during TA time
TA time?
I'd like to break out that acronym for you but it's NSFW.
well now I'm really curious what your definition is
t***
n
a**
obviously
ahh..gotcha. Not where I went with it
Time Allows?
Temperature Assesment?
...Tele..pathic...Arithmatic
Tube Ankles? (kankles for short)
This thing needs to move further East. Hampton Roads is trying to get in on the snow action too!
eshiben5 one last one please! I have a flight out of NYC Saturday morning (7am) for Cancun(Woooooo!!), what do you think the chances are there are any flight delays in the area at that time when these things go down?
he's gonna post a much more in depth and educated forecast in a bit, either later today or tomorrow. Just hang tight and best of luck for your travels!
EDIT: new post is up as its own topic
Come on, Washington County! Turn all of the way red!
Oh damn I didn't realize I was going to be in southwest Virginia this weekend.
6"+ ain't that much
I hope you realize that I'm constantly lobbing softballs in your direction.......shi*. Just did it again
woop woop! Looks like it's gonna be a Brunswick Stew making weekend for me!
My co-worker was just talking about Brunswick Stew, never
had it or heard of it. She said it's awesome. If you have a recipe
I'd love to try it. :)
Are you not a native Virginian?
Yes I am. Is that supposed to mean something??
I'm a native Virginian as well, never had Brunswick stew either. Or at least we never called it that.
I think I have had it before. My Mother called it "Hamburger Hash".
I will have to ask her.
We called it Manwich. I think that's the name brand.
Never thought those two were anything similar. Manwich was like a sloppy joe - ground beef cooked down with a heavy katsup type bbq sauce until it has a chilli consistency, served on a bun. Brunswick stew is a thick soup with a chicken broth and tomato base, any meat you might get at a BBQ joint, corn, and either potatoes or Lima beans., served with corn bread or hush puppies, depending on if you in VA or NC.
From what I can tell, Brunswick stew is more popular in the Richmond area and East, and through southside Virginia, probably since Brunswick County is in that general area.
Just a joke.
Joke or not. You seem to have to comment on everything...
Well, I kinda thought that was the point of this place.
Speaking of Brunswick stew, I always keep a supply of this in my canned goods stockpile. It's a great Virginia creation, originated from Hanover County. Nothing beats homemade, but this serves as a pretty good substitute.
I've met people all around the country who get this shipped to them.
I live in Massachusetts, and I confess that I have imported cans of Mrs. Fearnow's a time or two. I grew up in the Richmond area and really miss Brunswick stew, corn pudding, Dot's cookies from Ukrops, etc.--none of which is known in the northeast.
As I recall, I think that years ago Brunswick stew was made with squirrel in more rural areas. Probably during the Depression when people were apt to hunt for their own meat?
I believe it originated in the back of a BBQ place in Brunswick County. Add leftover succotash, chicken, and pulled pork to chicken stock and cook all day.
Interesting and thanks for sharing instead of judging me.
I've never even been to that area of VA.
Sure thing - I'll shoot a tweet your way with one.