I did a little (and the key word is little) research post apocalyptic NSD (sarcasm intended) about past recruiting successes/failures and how that affected the Hokies performance against formidable opponents. The two opponents that I wanted to look at and take a sample from are two teams that completely dominated us on the field.
The first is Stanford in the 2011 Orange Bowl. The game was close for a while with a couple of our playmakers making plays. But the absolute domination up front on both sides of the ball by Stanford won out and the Cardinal won big that evening. Did that team have far superior athletes than the Hokies?
The other team is Clemson in 2011-20112 and 2012-2013. In each of those three games, the Hokies managed to do next to nothing offensively and Clemson simply won from start to finish. Though they didn't dominate the Hokies up front quite like Stanford did, we still struggled in that area. Did they have far superior athletes than the Hokies?
I'm not looking at these two opponents just because we lost, I wanted to look at these two opponents because of how they dominated the Hokies on the field. During the same two seasons (and again, this is a small sample size) the Hokies did not dominate anyone on the field that they would have been considered "on par" with. That is unless you add in #14 Miami in 2010 and #24 UVa in 2011.
I wanted to know if Stanford and Clemson dominated the Hokies because they had far superior athletes. In other words, how did recruiting look in the three years leading up to those seasons as the players in those classes would have, most likely, had the larges impact in those games.
2007 rankings: Clemson #17, VT #26, Stanford #46. http://247sports.com/Season/2007-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
2008 rankings: Clemson #10, VT #20, Stanford #45. http://247sports.com/Season/2008-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
2009 rankings: Stanford #18, VT #24, Clemson #31. http://247sports.com/Season/2009-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
I'll let those numbers speak for themselves...
Here is my point. Recruiting does need to get better, however what happened yesterday is not the end of the world of Hokie football. I know the trend has been a downward one, but we aren't completely out of the game here.
Next season, for the first time in a loooong time, the Hokies will have depth on the Offensive line. Next year, for the first time in a long time, the Hokeis will have depth on the D line. Next year, for the first time in forever, the Hokies will probably run 5 or more deep at the receiver position. Next year, there will be depth at RB and a highly touted QB under center (although he may be developing). For the first time in a long time, the staff is bringing in kids who will be playing positions that they were brought in to play.
The staff is filling holes and trying to meet needs so that the system (just like the ones at Stanford & Clemson) can thrive long term. And I can be excited about that.
We won't really know weather CJF and co. can recruit until the 2018 cycle. So until then, I'm excited to see us get a group of "big uglies" who are actually "big uglies" Until then, I'm excited that we are signing receivers as opposed to 4 or 5 dual threat QB's who we hope can play receiver. Until then, I'm excited to see CJF install an offense that will be fun to watch.
Who knows, maybe CJF is going to be able to do to other teams what Jim Harbaugh at Stanford and Dabo Swinney at Clemson have done to the Hokies.
Comments
Fuente had an extremely good reputation at Memphis for coaching up 2 and 3-stars. While recruiting classes like this aren't sustainable at a Power 5 level, this is Fuente's first NSD, just two months after being hired. Next year's NSD will be a better barometer as to how this staff will recruit.
To me, the NSD angst seems to hinge on us being unable to flip verbal commits to other schools and the shocker of losing JaQuan Bailey due to what appears to be a family issue. We didn't lose anything we thought we had going into yesterday, we just didn't add to it when we really hoped we would.
This was never a great class by the rankings. I don't get why everyone's pulling their hair out over a mid-30s ranking, since that's exactly where we've hovered for like three months. This isn't a sexy class, and it never promised to be one. Yet it still filled a lot of needs. We got 4 WRs, 4 OLs and 3 LBs.
Maybe it's because all the sexiest names enrolled early that's got everyone all emo over yesterday's signing class, but it was about what I expected. Losing Bailey sucked, but not nearly so much as if we had simply been out-recruited by the Vols for him. I would have loved to flip Fox, Ross or Pine, but I'm never shocked when we fail to flip a recruit who feels good enough about another program to give a solid verbal commitment to them. The fact that we went hard after them knowing they were verbally committed elsewhere was enough for me to appreciate that the recruiting culture at VT is changing under Fuente.
Yesterday turned out about how I expected it to, with the one exception being disappointment because a guy wanted to play his college ball with his brother.
I with you, I am not getting any anxiety over our class. We seem to have addressed our needs for a year or two down the road.
Bailey was a bit of a shock, but both brothers playing at ISU means it is a lot easier for the parents to visit and see games and not show favoritism. That was probably a family matter and a financial reason for the parents.
My disappointment is not with the lack of flipping recruits. I am very happy with the recruits that signed.
My disappointment is that we have a lack of objectively good depth at LB & DE, and filling those needs over the past several seasons has been less than stellar.
My only real knock against Bud is that his system is probably the single biggest impediment to convincing 4 star talent to sign.
You can poo poo the star system all you want, but there is no doubt Foster has targeted that talent himself and values it very highly. That sort of objective talent can overcome a lot of the issues we have directly faced: lack of speed, lack of size, lack of strength at the point of attack.
Ultimately he needs heady guys filling those positions. Brains/technique will generally suffice for his system. But if the light doesn't turn on, or if we lose a starter to injury, we run into exactly what we've seen on the D these past couple seasons.
So yeah, I think Bud needs to up his game on the recruiting trail. I think Fuente did an awesome job holding the commitments we had, and getting some other key players into his program, and that given a full season, next year should go better in terms of recruiting the O-side of the ball.
I also think the energy of the new staff will likely light a fire under everyone's tail in terms of recruiting.
In the end, I have high hopes for next year, and just think this year was never going to be a big recruiting season regardless of who we had on staff.
Gaines, Fullwood, Taylor and Trevion Hill will all be freshman next fall at DE
I'm speaking not about who we ended up with, but who we missed on.
I love who we have coming in. I also think that there were higher targets over the past several years that we whiffed on.
Oh yeah, no doubt, we have bodies and some good ones I think, but the misses have been brutal, especially in state the past couple years- Clelin Ferrell, Sweat, Darrell Taylor, Hand, Jaylyn Holmes...
The losses to Clemson in 2011 were two of the more perplexing ones in recent memory. By pretty much all accounts other than head to head we were a better, more consistent football team that year. They got embarrassed by GT, WVU, and NC State. Our only two losses (it was a catch) were inexplicably to Clemson, inexplicably overwhelmed by their defense which was atrocious that year, it was just a bad matchup. Great example of how our offenses during the last 10 years or so have made horrible defenses look great.
Two out of the three worst offensive performances from a Chad Morris led Clemson offense were against our defense. The perplexing thing is how/why our offense performed so poorly against them.
Exactly, we made them look like world beaters on defense when we were ranked 4 or 5 and then watched WVU drop 70 on them the next game they played.
Clemson made our 2011 offense look like our 2012 & 2013 offense.
I can finally say that I'm not bitter about those losses anymore.
I'm still kind of bitter haha, that was my freshman year at Clemson, and I went to both of those games and the 2012 game. Most of my friends are Clemson fans sooo. Extra bitter after the ACCCG where we were trending up and top 5 and they had lost 3 out of their last 4 or something and limped into the ACCCG by making a double digit comeback against Wake Forest and then made us look like trash.
They figured out Stinespring's offense, and knew Stiney was incapable of on-the-fly offensive adjustments to counter what they were doing to take our receivers out of the game.
We signed who we expected, minus the family guy. Florida flipping 1992 DB Torian Gray at the wire was the real shocker.
Yea but I don't see him getting much on field action!
clearly didn't go there for early playing time. I expect him to transfer out of the program after a year or two anyways.
... and if he wanted off-the-field action, he'd have picked FSU.
I slept on it. Today, I am even more disappointed in losing TG. I think a part of being successful is keeping your best recruiters, which TG was. I would have understood an elevation, I really think he could/should be a DC. But a lateral move? I am disappointed our Atheltic Dept let him get away.
The secondary was the one area that seemed to be our bread&butter in terms of transition to the NFL, one of the major selling points to high school kids. 7/18 Hokies in the NFL are in the secondary (7/10 on the defensive side of ball)
While the profile and assignment of DBs in Bud Foster's system aren't going to change with a new DB Coach, the talent level we attract might. Bud has never shown a real affinity for recruiting. Let's hope TG's replacement can fill the void.
TG had been our DBs coach for ten years, which seems like a pretty long time to be an assistant at one school. It is unrealistic to think he would wait around to take over for Bud, especially when Bud stayed on as DC. I think we see going to Florida as a lateral move, but it terms of prestige, he's on a little bit bigger of a stage there. I see Florida being the stepping stone he needs to land a great DC job somewhere. I don't think we can really blame anyone for letting him get away, this move makes sense for him.
I see what your saying in terms of a bigger stage, Florida is a top 10 program in the country, despite wins and losses. If he turns out 2 years worth of positive performance and recruiting, he is guaranteed a shot at an upper-tier DC job somewhere.
I guess I just thought that TG would leave VT for a defensive coordinator position at a comparable program, I never expected him leave his alma mater to move up in the p5 realm for another position coaching job. He is from Florida after all, but I can't help feeling that a paycut is what started this.
If not the money, or the imposed feeling of disrespect that comes with a paycut... is a few years at Florida really going to to improve his resume that much, is being a finalist for the nations top position coach, albeit at VT, worth that little? Maybe it was just the respect TG carries with Hokies fans, but I had really expected him to be a DC somewhere else, starting around 2010!
During the 8 year 10+ win streak I think many fans envisioned, whether seriously or as an enjoyable what if, that TG would become the DC under Bud Foster as HC and we would bring in some hotshot OC. Interesting how a few bad years can change so much.
In many respects recruiting is a sales job.
Clients buy because they can afford it (they can get an offer) and like the product (the school/team potential) and/or the salesman (the coach). Usually this is a relationship that's taken years to build before the buy comes. Getting someone who's buying brand X to change to brand VT requires them to internally admit that their evaluation process was flawed- they made the wrong choice. Barring external events this is something this is difficult to do- folks don't want to admit that they made a mistake even if it really wasn't.
Asking a new coach to come in and in 2 months and convince a HS kid of this is a tall order. That JF was able to get some very talented kids to even consider switching is; I feel, a good sign of his recruiting ability and what he's selling.
To be honest I'm in the minority here and see our recruiting as pretty good considering:
1) VT football was a lame duck for half the season while on the Beamer's retirement tour
2) an unimpressive on the field display for most of the season (offensively and defensively)
3) Saving face with already committed recruits with new staff
4) Two month recruitment period
5) Black out period (No visits, and limited contact)
6) Winter Snow storm
7) New Coaching Hires and Moves
Shit if you think about it, the new guys had more like a month to make an impression on new recruits (who already had established relationship with other schools) and build a quick relationship. Our coaching staff hasn't been in their offices long enough to use a whole roll of toilet paper yet!
I completely avoided coming on this site yesterday because I knew "the sky was falling" mentality would be everywhere. I am majorly disappointed in the reaction by our fan base, we sound like the boHOOS. In every situation in life, change brings obstacles and if you didn't think there was going to be some obstacles then you need to go outside and stick you head in the nearest hole.
Now if the ball is dropped in 17 &18 with all the buzz players are already giving us then we can reevaluate but cool your jets and let the man do his job before we throw him to the wolves.
(and yes, it's hard cider)
I'm ok with that
via GIPHY
Um, who is that?
If you redirect your attention to her face, it might help.
I just want to know how that gif is such high quality
Cause everything Natalie Dormer is High quality
Natalie Dormer. I'd post her esquire gif but... work.
Queen Marjorie. If you aren't watching GoT, then you must not like nudity, violence and Peter Dinklage.
These are a few of my favorite things...
I think we were out coached.
I also don't think this class was terrible. Sure some more 4 or 5 stars would be great, but I think the team addressed some needs. The WRs look great on film and 3 of them already enrolled is awesome.
I was hopeful that we'd get the 2 UNC guys, but it didn't work out. Fuente had them interested enough for VT to be in their top 2 on NSD after being recruited for only 2 months. I think that is an encouraging sign and hopefully we'll seal the deal on players like that after being recruited for a year or two.
Pigrome would have been nice, but I wasn't worried about losing him. He wanted to play QB and we got some good prospects at WR.
The Bailey thing was just weird. It was obvious it was a family decision and didn't he say he was going to ISU "because of the woman behind me"? He wanted VT but did what was best for the family.
screw your glass half full. Everything is awful. I'm going back to bed. Wake me when spring ball starts...
only half /s
Okay, my concerns come not from our poor recruiting but from conference rivals recruiting better and better.
From 247, ACC teams above us in class rankings include UNC, Duke, Miami, Louisville, Pitt, Clemson, and FSU. Add to that teams we are playing in the near future like Tennessee, Penn State, and Notre Dame, we're setting ourselves up for some uphill seasons.
We could have some rough sledding in the near future ladies and gents. It's gut check time not just for the team but for the fan base as well. We could lose a lot of people. It's a one day at a time approach. For me, 9/3 against Liberty is a must win. Right after that game, Tennessee will be next on the chopping block.
That is how you win recruiting battles. Prove you develop talent, win games, and grow resources.
I don't think we could handle a season where playing Liberty wasn't penciled in as a win. Losing would be one thing, but not expecting to win would be another.
The Offseason, It'll get after ya!
But think of the implications it would have. We have a "terrible" recruiting cycle followed by a loss to the guys who produced this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-dc9nHwC2w&index=1&list=PL3F3B76BDDBA0F518
It would just spiral.
I worked with this guy at Liberty during my Masters Degree. Nice guy but yea a lot of student there still roll their eyes about this whole bit. And it's played all the damn time!
At first I heard the beat/chorus and was like
then I listened to the lyrics about the history of the University and it ended up as
i'm a bit confused with this post...yet no worries about NSD
I have found some good news!
Imagine if we were Georgia Tech. Their recruiting class is ranked worse than Wake Forest.
I agree with your sentiment. Yesterday wasn't a good day. An expectedly underwhelming recruiting class coupled with losing TG makes the future look bleak. But, looking at the big picture, I think the future is anything but bleak.
-We are bringing back almost every single contributing offensive player from last season.
-We'll be having a new starting 4* QB (or Motley, an experienced starter) working with a HC that is known for bringing out the best in his quarterbacks.
-We have arguably the best returning WR in the ACC.
-We have a RB that finished in the conference top 10 for RB rushing yards. He didn't even start a game until midseason.
-We lost TG, yes. That is a part of modern college football. Coaches change schools. It'll hurt the defense, but at the end of the day I still trust Bud Foster.
-We have young, promising guys on the defense. (Settle, Alexander, Edmunds, Reynolds, many others I'm probably forgetting)
All in all, at this point I see about 6 games on our 2016 schedule that we should win. Call me crazy, but I think the bowl streak will live on into 2017.
I think what's strange to me is having so much more confidence/hope in our offense than our defense. Most of the positives you named for the year applied for the offense and the one you mentioned for defense (D-line depth) really applies to DT's much more than DE's. Honestly with the primary offensive drawbacks this year being a somewhat new system for the offense and having a new QB under center (even though we have great prospects), I'm easily more confident in our offense then I have been in some time. Our current talent across the board is pretty darn impressive.
However I have found myself in new territory with the D. In the past I have felt that no matter what the defensive personnel looked like that Bud would come up with some way to field an above average to elite group. However with some weaknesses exposed these past few years and after some recruiting misses/some player's not panning out/ some players not working out for whatever reason (injury, discipline, let down, etc) I'm starting to get a little nervous...
It's not that I doubt Bud (I promise I believe in you Bud, please don't kill me) I think it's just maybe that Beamerball has spoiled me so much that I am used to always having consistent defense/special teams that can carry the offense on their shoulders. It certainly is unique territory for Hokie fans to be in.
PS: I still have faith that Bud will find a way. He always has and I believe he always will.
It's pretty simple (to me at least). If we start producing on the field, the recruits are going to take notice. Hopefully a more aggressive staff will be able to close with these guys when that happens.
One of the key things I take from this is that success on the field CAN happen with the guys we have. It just takes really good coaching and player development. Historically, we have had that on the defensive side, not we (hopefully) have that on the offensive side of the ball.