In our quest to make the NIT, we want #1 seeds in conference to win their conference tournaments. Every reg. season "small" conference champ that loses in their tourney gets an automatic NIT bid and takes up a free at-large spot. Brian laid it out very well in his VT/NIT thread.
http://www.thekeyplay.com/virginia-tech-basketball/2016/03/11725/buzzket...
Unfortunately, #1 seeds aren't off to a great start. Bucknell, #1 seed in the Patriot League, lost 77-72 in 2OT at home to Holy Cross in the quarterfinals of the Patriot League tournament. So that's one spot gone.
Something weird is going on in the Atlantic Sun conference.....
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the-dagger/north-florida-s-ncaa-tour...
#1 seed North Florida got an 89-56 beating (at home) from #4 seed Florida Gulf Coast. FGCU meets #7 seed Stetson in the A-Sun title game. The problem for Stetson is that they're ineligible for postseason play because they failed to meet the Academic Progress Report requirement. But if Stetson wins the tournament, the bid doesn't go to runner-up Florida Gulf Coast...it goes to Reg. season champ North Florida. So if Stetson can go into Dunk City (is it still called that?) and upset FGCU, then N. Florida goes to the NCAAs and it's an extra spot for NIT at-large hopefuls. If FGCU wins, then they go to the NCAA tournament and N. Florida steals an NIT bid away from a team like VT.
Either way, #1 seeds are 0 for 2 in tournaments so far and we haven't even gotten to any conference champ. games yet. March Madness already off to an interesting start.
Comments
And when we win the ACC tourney, it won't matter
This is the TL;DR for half of the posts this weekend.
Here are all the non-power conference/1-bid league regular season winners to keep an eye on:
NCAA BOUND:
NIT BOUND:
Key Games (March 10)
Key Games (March 11)
Key Games (March 12)
Key Games (March 13)
EDIT: Updated as of 3/10 - Added remaining schedules
High Point went down
Not looking good - a #1 seed is yet to win their tourney.
Hey a 1 seed finally won, Chattanooga.
3/8 WCC Finals St Mary's vs Gonzaga
I excluded that because I feel that St Mary's is safely in the NCAAs even with a loss.
Nobody sleep on TBD. I hear they are looking to win the MEAC and go deep in the NCAA.
I'm wondering if TBD can get an at-large bid though. They pass the eye test and have some quality wins, but TBD's RPI is pretty low.
Ohio Valley #1 seed Belmont goes down (in their hometown of Nashville) to #8 seed Austin Peay in overtime. So that's another spot gone.
Interesting tidbit, you have to go back to the 2009-2010 season to find an ACC tourney 6th seed that made the NCAA tourney with Clemson. Since then VT(2011), Miami (2012, 2015), FSU (2013), and Clemson (2014) have all gone to the NIT.
We might be the 6th seed, but we finished in 7th place (Louisville). I think we need to run the streak to 8 to make the NCAA, but may already be NIT lock thanks to last night.
I wouldn't consider us a lock for anything just yet, we could conceivably still stink it up in our ACC tourney game(s).
But you made me curious how 7 seeds in the ACC have done the past few years:
NC State earned an NCAA bid the past two years (2015: W vs Pitt, L vs Duke; 2014: W vs Miami, W vs Syracuse, L vs Duke)
Before them Maryland earned an NIT berth in 2013 (W vs. Wake Forest, W vs Duke, L vs. UNC)
Clemson got left out in 2012 (L vs the good guys)
Maryland got left out in 2011 (W vs NC State, L vs Duke)
GT earned an NCAA bid in 2010 (W vs UNC, W vs Maryland, W vs NC State, L vs Duke).
All this to say, of course, that I have no clue what we'll end up doing. GT made the ACC title game when they earned their invite so I don't think it's unreasonable to say we'd have to do the same.
Any idea what the corresponding RPI was for each? That probably fills in the pieces on why some got in and some did not.
Used this page to grab the RPI ranking from the date the ACC tournament started in each of the years
2015: NC State RPI- 45, made the NCAA
2014: NC State RPI- 67, made the NCAA
2013: Maryland RPI- 86, made NIT
2012: Clemson RPI- 141, left out
2011: Maryland RPI- 106, left out
2010: Georgia Tech RPI- 43, made the NCAA
Our current RPI is 88 so based on that our closest comparison is 2013 Maryland
If we handle FSU and Miami, we're getting in.
2013 MD, with the same starting RPI, won two, including Duke, and went to NIT which is a lot more crowded this year because of above. Loss to FSU/BC may bump us to a lower tournament than the NIT, or we could be there even if we beat Miami. Just glad to still have something to play for after today.
The only way we're getting in is if we win the ACC. Our RPI is not good enough to get a bid otherwise, and we do have some awful losses on our resume.
We have two bad losses. One to Alabama State and the other to Northwestern. Both at home, both in the early half of the season. We can't magically make those go away, but thankfully computers are not picking. There is a human element. Wins against Miami and FSU would bump us up in to the 70s and we've got a shot. Lot of ifs, but saying only through auto bid is not quite right. Some bubble teams might bounce early in their tournaments, it's all in flux right now.
There's precedence for teams in the high 60s to get in, and they've all been from major conferences. It's a might longshot, but an impressive showing this week and two wins, will get us in the discussion at the table.
Look, I know what you're saying... But we're not getting in without winning the ACC. At this point in the season, anyone who is in consideration has good wins on their resume, so they're going to look at RPI and bad losses. Neither of those will help us in the slightest. That loss to Alabama St alone might be enough to make the committee move on.
But that's actually ok. I think the possibility of a much longer run in the NIT will help this young roster out rather than immediately heading to Dayton only to have to jump on a plane right away to make it to the next venue for a game a couple days later should we even win a game in the NCAA.
There may have been precedence in years past for teams with RPIs in the high 60s to get in, thats just not going to be the case this year more than likely because of the number of #1 mid major seeds that have lost in their tournaments but will still make the tourney. There are the potential for six teams getting bumped out. Most of the prognosticators right now have teams in the high forties, low fifties being the last teams out.
CBS is projecting Tulsa, Cincy, Washington and St Bonaventure being the last four out, they have respective RPIs of 48, 39, 82, and 27. Washington fell off a cliff to end their season which is why they were on the list but the others are still at risk.
Another CBS analyst has these: Michigan, George Washington, Wichita State, Monmouth: RPIs 67, 62, 47, 53
Campus Insiders has Ohio State, Colorado, St Bonaventure and Providence: RPIs of 76, 29, 27, 43
ESPN projecting Oregon State, Gonzaga, Tulsa, Florida: RPIs 30, 60, 48, 57
ESPN projecting next four out behind those as: Ohio State, George Washington, Valparaiso, Michigan: 76, 62, 51, 67
All of that said, Tech HAS to win the ACC to make the tournament this year. Even winning the tournament only would move our RPI into the low 60s but we would be autobid. Beyond that, even a loss to a top ACC team in the final wouldnt do enough to get us over the unusual hump that is this years tournament selection. Regardless, who would have thought we would be sniffing this air at this time of year. We came up short this season but as long as we continue to improve, beating the teams we should in OOC next year, we should be right in the mix again.
And to further clarify this point, we're not even mentioned in ESPN's Bubble Watch. Like, not even on the radar to be on the radar for a possible bid.