Would You Rather - Beating UVA or Winning the Coastal

I was thinking yesterday about which meant more: beating UVA or winning the Coastal. I think it's a hard question to answer straight up but I think I found an interesting way to frame it. Would be interested in hearing what everyone else thinks.

So you're sitting on your couch watching TV and all of a sudden the Devil shows up. He says, "Hey there *insert your name*! Really appreciate your boys beating those God fearing folk in Indiana this past week. I felt like I owed you a favor."

"I can guarantee a UNC loss this week, but because I can't make any deal all too sweet, I am Satan after all, I would also have the guarantee that you would lose to UVA. But you would win your division so I think this is a fair deal. But, I also know you all have a bit of a thing with them and that might not be so appealing. So the other option I can give you is to guarantee a UNC win but I can't then guarantee a VT win. I can however give you the odds of a VT win in that scenario to help you make a decision."

"If you take the second option, guaranteeing a UNC win, the odds of VT beating UVA are __%."

So my question to all you guys is: What percentage do you need in that blank to take Option 2 over a guaranteed Coastal crown but also a loss to the Hoos?

I know you can make an argument about how losing to UVA would hurt our bowl opportunities and all that but I'm trying to keep this about just beating UVA and winning the division.

I think I would need 70% to even consider Option 2.

EDIT: You have to take an option is this scenario. The question isn't if you'd make a deal. It's what odds do you have to have against UVA to turn down a guaranteed Coastal crown. If you answer that you would only want both, then you're saying that the odds for Option 2 have to be 100%.

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Having a conversation with you is like a Martian talking to a Fungo.

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I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

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"I liked you guys a lot better when everybody told you you were terrible." -Justin Fuente

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Another white bronco? The first one didn't go too far.

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I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

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"I liked you guys a lot better when everybody told you you were terrible." -Justin Fuente

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I told him I’d crawl on my hands and knees to be the DL coach at Virginia Tech. Now, all of a sudden, I’m sitting in this chair and I told him I’d still crawl on my hands and knees to work here. I just want to be here.
JC Price

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I just sit on my couch and b*tch. - HokieChemE2016

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I have no idea why my username is VT_Warthog.

Arkansas blew a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl.

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"I liked you guys a lot better when everybody told you you were terrible." -Justin Fuente

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Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

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I just sit on my couch and b*tch. - HokieChemE2016

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"Mike London is the only cop in Tallahassee trying to catch Jameis Winston."

All Maroon everything

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Even when you get skunked; fishing never lets you down. 🎣

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Outside it's night time, but inside it's LeDay

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21st century QBs Undefeated vs UVA:
MV7, MV5, LT3, Kyron Drones, Grant Wells, Braxton Burmeister, Ryan Willis, Josh Jackson, Jerod Evans, Michael Brewer, Tyrod Taylor, Sean Glennon, and Grant Noel. That's right, UVA. You couldn't beat Grant Noel.

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I just sit on my couch and b*tch. - HokieChemE2016

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Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

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Even when you get skunked; fishing never lets you down. 🎣

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Even when you get skunked; fishing never lets you down. 🎣

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Even when you get skunked; fishing never lets you down. 🎣

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Amateur superstar and idiot extraordinaire.