Would You Rather - Beating UVA or Winning the Coastal

I was thinking yesterday about which meant more: beating UVA or winning the Coastal. I think it's a hard question to answer straight up but I think I found an interesting way to frame it. Would be interested in hearing what everyone else thinks.

So you're sitting on your couch watching TV and all of a sudden the Devil shows up. He says, "Hey there *insert your name*! Really appreciate your boys beating those God fearing folk in Indiana this past week. I felt like I owed you a favor."

"I can guarantee a UNC loss this week, but because I can't make any deal all too sweet, I am Satan after all, I would also have the guarantee that you would lose to UVA. But you would win your division so I think this is a fair deal. But, I also know you all have a bit of a thing with them and that might not be so appealing. So the other option I can give you is to guarantee a UNC win but I can't then guarantee a VT win. I can however give you the odds of a VT win in that scenario to help you make a decision."

"If you take the second option, guaranteeing a UNC win, the odds of VT beating UVA are __%."

So my question to all you guys is: What percentage do you need in that blank to take Option 2 over a guaranteed Coastal crown but also a loss to the Hoos?

I know you can make an argument about how losing to UVA would hurt our bowl opportunities and all that but I'm trying to keep this about just beating UVA and winning the division.

I think I would need 70% to even consider Option 2.

EDIT: You have to take an option is this scenario. The question isn't if you'd make a deal. It's what odds do you have to have against UVA to turn down a guaranteed Coastal crown. If you answer that you would only want both, then you're saying that the odds for Option 2 have to be 100%.