The 2018 Virginia Tech football season was hardly one for the ages. Yes, the Commonwealth Cup remained in Blacksburg for another year. And yes, the bowl streak stayed alive (thanks to some Whit Babcock scheduling magic). But by and large, the season as-a-whole was difficult to stomach. Hokies fans were forced to take an honors-level course on the Transfer Portal, which resulted in a dramatic offseason full of enough "Will He's" and "Won't He's" to make fans of The Bachelorette roll their eyes. There was the rather public talk of a culture change, which was ultimately made public on a national scale in a Sports Illustrated article that wasn't exactly a glowing portrayal of the program.
The good news is that August 31st represents a new season of Hokies football. A fresh opportunity for the Hokies to turn the page and make positive steps towards returning the program to national relevance. Another chance to make a statement and another year to humble that team from Charlottesville. And The Key Play staff shares its thoughts on what lies ahead.
Joe Lanza
Season Prediction: Given the turmoil of the offseason, it's inane to venture a guess at how the season will unfold in this space. For those wanting some variation of 'Ryan Willis turns the corner', or 'the defense rallies behind Bud Foster but is still limited by inexperience', it's definitely a cop out. Instead, hopefully the season's outcome is free of ambiguity and the trajectory the program is on is clear come Winter.
Final Regular Season Record: 9–3
Key Matchup: The Black Friday trip to Virginia. In the comforts of Lane Stadium last season the streak should have ended. The Hoos snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. It was a Benny Hill-inspired loss that evoked plenty of schadenfreude from the Maroon-side. There's an opportunity for Virginia Tech to reassert its dominance in the rivalry — which is a strange thing to write with the Hokies in the midst of 15-game win streak — against a capable Cavaliers squad. It matters for renewed bragging rights, and the chase for the ACC Coastal title. It would take some real, and I can't believe I am typing this, 'Coastal Chaos' for Tech to lose at Miami and UVA and win the crown. And on paper, the matchup with the Canes is the tougher of the two.
Breakout Player: Keshawn King. This is the strategy of wishing a thing into existence. Tech needs improved production from its running backs. King is extremely talented, a solid scheme fit, but inexperienced. The former pros outweigh the latter con, but the prediction reservation is Tech's desire to rotate its backs to exploit matchups might limit King's touches to truly breakout.
Brian Marcolini
Season Prediction: Let's see. On one hand you have a massively talented offense, with more weapons at the skill positions than this program has seen in nearly a decade. On the other hand, you have a quarterback who has a tendency to give the ball away in the worst possible moments, coupled with an inability to hit those weapons over the middle to let them capitalize on their gifts in space.
On one hand you have a defense that returns some incredibly talented young players primed for immense improvement (Dax Hollifield, TyJuan Garbutt, Caleb Farley, Divine Deablo). On the other hand, you have a defense that's still incredibly young, has very little depth in crucial spots (defensive tackle, corner), and seems to be just as vulnerable to exploit as last year.
I have no idea how this thing's going to go. Does Willis take a step and lead an offense that can score in all four quarters of a game? Can Bud Foster's final year make everyone forget about the atrocity that was 2018? If so, the Hokies can go to the ACC Championship Game. If Willis is about the same (which is very much in play) and the defense just improves from bad to average, they may have a two-win improvement. If both Willis and the defense stay about the same, they'll be below .500.
And you know what the scary part is? Any of it is in play.
Final Regular Season Record: Ugh. Who knows. 7–5? 5–7? 11–1? It could be anything in between. I'll go 8–4.
Key Matchup: In Fuente's first season, he strung together three impressive wins at the end of September/early October to start getting people interested. He then lost to Syracuse in what was then the biggest head scratcher of his tenure. In 2017, a 4-0 Tech team got mollywhopped by Clemson in a matchup that showed fans that maybe the Hokies weren't as ready for prime time as they had hoped. And last season, a dominant win over Florida State was the difference between heading to bowl season or not. Each of the last three rotating cross-divisional games have played a huge role in the season at large. And Wake Forest, coming into Lane Stadium the week after Tech plays Notre Dame, could mean everything.
Wake won't be great, but they will have a quarterback who likes to chuck it (meaning he could give the Hokie defense some problems). Let's say Tech rolls into that game at 6-2 with losses to Miami and Notre Dame. With just one conference loss, their future is still entirely laid out in front of them. But a loss to the Demon Deacons could derail everything, with Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh and Virginia to follow.
Or, if Tech stumbles against BC, Duke, or UNC, the Wake game could become a must-win. It's not a scenario that we want to think about, but it's one that could definitely be in play.
Breakout Player: You might roll your eyes, but remember: Tre Turner only caught 26 passes last year. Now, those 26 catches went for 535 yards (which is a stunning 20.6 yards per reception) and four scores, but he still only got true playing time in the final five games of the season. Just think what he can do opposite Damon Hazelton, occasionally moving into the slot, consistently exploiting mismatches, for an entire year. In this offense, Turner could put up the single greatest receiving season in Virginia Tech history, regardless of how good the team actually is.
Pierson Booher
Season Prediction: The other day, my father asked me how the Hokies looked heading into this season. I found myself gushing about the position groups as I made my way through the offense, focusing on the depth and experience that returns in 2019. I talked about how the secondary looked poised to take a step forward this year and how the linebacking corps sounded like a throwback to the Aughts. And then I got to the defensive line. After I breezed through my thoughts in 10 words or less, my Pop noted the abrupt change in tone. The lack of experience and unknown depth terrifies me, I told him.
Traditionally, the defensive line is a group that enters each season with at least one accomplished returner. Their presence provides some cover for the pups to find their sea legs. Not to discount guys like Jarrod Hewitt and TyJuan Garbutt, but neither are exactly long in the tooth. This Virginia Tech team is more than a defensive line group away from an ACC title; however, I can't help but feel as though the team could live and die by their defensive line play. Given the number of JUCO transfers and freshmen this team could be forced to rely on, I worry about how they hold up against talented offensive lines and/or high octane systems. I feel confident that they can make plays, but how well do they hold up over 60 minutes, not to mention over the course of a full season?
Based on the projected year-over-year growth at virtually every other position, I remain bullish on this Tech team. That's why, come November, I think they will be in the race for the ACC Coastal. But forgive me for needing some time to gain some confidence in the defensive line play.
Final Regular Season Record: 7–5. Last season broke me...It's going to take a bit for the swagger to return.
Key Matchup: Boston College. A week one matchup at the ACC's northern outpost against a team featuring an uber-talented tailback, an experienced quarterback and a traditionally stout collection of offensive and defensive linemen is a heck of a test. A victory over the Eagles has the potential to set the tone for the weeks ahead, while a loss could rattle the confidence of a program that has spent an offseason highlighting a cultural reset.
Tech is fortunate to not only have a relatively favorable schedule, but their most challenging games are well positioned within the greater context of their opponents. Their trip to South Beach is bracketed by home games against a rebuilding Duke squad and FCS Rhode Island. Their road game in South Bend is preceded by a bye week and followed by a home game against a pesky but beatable Wake Forest team. While their last two games — against Pitt and at Virginia, respectively — should prove fateful, their opening date at Boston College represents an enormous opportunity to get a tough win under their belt before the calendar even turns to September.
Breakout Player: You know, I had a pretty good streak going with my breakout player predictions prior to things going off the rails last year with my Divine Deablo pick. Injuries and a wholesale step in the bucket by the secondary (thanks Tyrone Nix!) did me Deablo zero favors. In an effort to right the proverbial ship, I'm going to go with Chamarri Conner.
He may not be on the field at all times, and he may end up playing multiple positions, but everything we've heard about Conner this offseason gives me the tingles. I mean, when Reggie Floyd is stating the following, it's impossible not to get hyped about Conner's potential impact this season:
"He's a savage. He loves the game. He loves to learn. He loves being out there with his brothers. Tough guy. Doesn't matter how big or small you are if you come in his direction, you are going to feel all 220 [pounds] of him."
First of all, anytime someone is referred to as a "savage", you've got my full and undivided attention. Second, Conner is a physical specimen that could provide some much needed versatility to the whip position by making an impact both behind the line of scrimmage and in coverage. The Tech defense needs to strike fear in opponents once again, and Conner sounds like the type of player who can help them make big strides in that department. I, for one, am excited to see what he can do in 2019.
TheFifthFuller
Season Prediction: So I've gained a reputation for being overly optimistic, so I'm going to try to retain some balance here. Yes, there's an extremely deep receiving corps that are going to help make Willis look great. Oh, and Willis will be in his second year in the system, when quarterbacks under Fuente
tend to make a significant improvement. Oh, and I guess Tech has a pretty promising running back talent in Keshawn King who is trying to break into the rotation and has made some eyes pop in fall camp already. There's also some young talent making noise on the offensive line that should improve a decent unit. And well, yeah, young but now much more experienced defense that will be looking to make a statement after an embarrassing last season AND trying to show out for Bud Foster's last year. And a pretty manageable schedule with only Miami and Notre Dame looking like long odds AND with Georgia Tech transitioning away from Chinballs Chop Block O'Clock, the Jackets could finally lose to Fuente for the first time. Ah, %&#^ it,
Final Regular Season Record: 15–0, baby! WE WANT BAMA! AFTER WE GET CLEMSON! HELL, WE'LL PLAY THEM BOTH AT THE SAME DAMN TIME!
Key Matchup: I think a lot of people are circling the LOLUVA game here, but I'll take them seriously once they give me a reason to. You know what happens every time the Hokies have a great, not good, but GREAT, year? They beat Miami. That's my barometer for this season.
Breakout Player: Caleb Farley. I don't know if I've seen a player go from anointed to demonized by the fanbase quite like Farley. Everyone was dazzled by his elite speed, and then dismissed him after some tackling struggles. A kid who started every game as a freshman, at a new position, after going through a major personal tragedy earlier in the year AND missing the entire previous season with an ACL tear, I am amazed he was able to perform to the level he did. A year further into the system, I expect he's going to put himself into better positions to influence and make plays. Another year in the weight room, I expect his tackling to improve. He has the physical attributes to be the next lockdown corner for DBU, and I expect him to start showing that this season.
Joel Smith
Season Prediction: This is a veeerrrrryyyy manageable schedule. If the team chemistry is there, and the secondary is even in the ballpark of usual standards, there's no reason to think Tech can't hit 10 wins in the regular season. On the other hand, I'm not confident good receivers can keep making risky throws from Ryan Willis look smart, or at least that it will happen consistently. And believing the secondary will return near usual standards takes a definite leap of faith. Improved play at linebacker will help limit the huge runs opponents broke against the Hokies last year, which will turn out to be the biggest difference in defensive play. The unit will also go hard for Bud Foster, so I'd expect a return at least to top 40 form, if not top 30. The offense also has plenty of weapons, and improved o-line play will make the running game feel improved as well.
I think at the end of the season we all feel a mix of optimism that the program has taken a clear step forward, and pessimism that at a national level the Hokies still aren't particularly relevant, and may not get there any time soon.
Final Regular Season Record: When things are looking optimistic, I usually lean more 9-3 and figure they're not as good as people think. But when things are not looking hopeful, I usually see the bright side and go with 9-3. I predict 9–3.
Key Matchup: Virginia. I love my maroon and orange tinted glasses, but Bronco has the team moving in the right direction and Perkins is an excellent quarterback. The emotional impact of a loss to close out the season, especially one with potential Coastal Division title implications, makes this one critical.
Breakout Player: It's going to be James Mitchell. I'm sure someone will step up on defense, and a running back will look better thanks to improved offensive line play. But there is way too much smoke around Mitchell's performance in practice thus far for there to not be fire. I could see a Bucky Hodges-type role where not only does he act more often than not as a wide receiver from the tight end position, but often lines up in 4- or even 5-receiver sets as a wideout. Defenses will have to pick their poison between Turner, Hazleton, and Mitchell. I suspect Mitchell will be on the winning end of that decision.
Billy Berlin
Season Prediction: When I hear things like "easy schedule," "tons of returning talent," and "different energy around the program" it's hard not to get excited. I have been a fan long enough now and had my heart broken enough times that I want to believe I have learned my lesson. Yet in all my years I can't think of year except for 2010 when I was this excited for the offense. The defense can't be any worse than last year and I would love nothing more than for Bud to go out with a bang. Most people have Miami and Notre Dame penciled in as losses, but I say the Hokies beat one of them but in true Virginia Tech fashion they drop a head scratcher in any of the other games not against UVA.
Final Regular Season Record: 10–2
Key Matchup: Boston College. I know it's the season opener and there will be plenty of rust, but I feel this game can answer the many questions I have about this team. Will the defense be able to limit a powerful running back such as AJ Dillion? Will the offensive line dominate and open up holes for the ground game? Will the offense put up points as easily as I expect them to? I plan on seeing the Hokies back in the ACCCG and starting off 1-0 will set a good tone for the rest of the season.
Breakout Player: Keshawn King. I loved King as a recruit and I have high hopes that he will be the Hokies' next big-time running back. The reports out of camp have drawn comparisons to other Tech greats, and at the first sign of being dinged up the staff made sure to get him rest. To me means they plan on him receiving significant playing time. He is a bit undersized at the moment, so he won't be a workhorse this year, but he will work his way into the rotation and end the season as a focal point of our rushing attack.
Joey Coogan
Season Prediction: It's been a tumultuous twelve months for the Hokies. Between waves of attrition, untimely injuries, and getting absolutely boat-raced by Pat Narduzzi, the maroon and orange faithful seem desperately in need of a turnaround season. And there's good news on that front – Tech couldn't have asked for an easier schedule.
Setting aside road trips to South Bend and Miami, every game on the schedule feels eminently winnable. Sure, depth at defensive tackle and cornerback remains a concern, but it's tough to imagine Bud Foster endures another year as hellish as 2018. I think the Hokies ultimately end up a game short of a return to the ACCCG, but they'll do enough to restore confidence in the Fuente regime and get the Virginia streak its drivers license.
Final Regular Season Record: 8–4
Key Matchup: Boston College has to be the tone setter. Put simply, there's been too much talk of improved culture and a more cohesive locker room to lay an egg in Chestnut Hill before the calendar even flips to September. Win convincingly and the Hokies get much-needed momentum back to Blacksburg; win narrowly and shift focus to vengeance for ODU; or lose and all hell breaks loose. I prefer Option 1.
Breakout Player: Chamarri Conner. There's been a lot of buzz around the Florida native throughout camp, and he certainly looks the part. At 6'0", 211 lbs., he brings more physicality to the whip position than the slimmer Khalil Ladler, and the coaching staff has apparently been pleasantly surprised by his coverage skills. Expect him to get the majority of first and second down snaps with the potential for more should he show well early.
Henry Skutt
Season Prediction: My expectations for this season are relatively high, mostly because of how easy this schedule is. Add in the well-reported attitude shift in the locker room, Bud Foster's retirement as motivation for a defense that was shellacked last season, a dynamic offense, and I find it hard to talk myself out of a good season. Which, in the past, has never ended well.
Final Regular Season Record: 10–2. Last year, I predicted 7–5, to the chagrin of most of TKP. I just would like to take this time to point out I was the closest to the actual final record (6–7). Just felt like I should point that out. I went into last season with low expectations because of a difficult schedule and turmoil around the team. I have high expectations because of an easier schedule and a seemingly rejuvenated culture within the program.
Key Matchup: It's a popular choice, and rightfully so. The Virginia game. The talk that I've heard all offseason is that Virginia is trending up (and quickly), while Virginia Tech is trending down. If there ever was a year for another 38-0 type of game, this is the one. Give Bud one more beatdown of little brother while also squashing any and all claims that Virginia is about to take over the state.
Breakout Player: We've heard a lot about Keshawn King, but I don't think he'll be the breakout player on offense. I'm expecting a lot out of Tayvion Robinson. Fuente has been outspoken about the freshman's ability, and that Robinson definitely won't be redshirting this season. Hendon Hooker, when asked if there was one guy who had gotten his attention during fall camp, called out Robinson. With all the focus on Tre Turner, Damon Hazelton, Phil Patterson, and Hezekiah Grimsley as the main guys at wideout, I think Robinson could sneak past defenses into some big yardage this season.
Sam Jessee
Season Prediction:
In sports, there's generally a regression to the mean — a status quo. Looking at this season, there are two major questions for Virginia Tech's future under Justin Fuente: What does the status quo look like and why has it been almost 10 years since the Hokies were nationally relevant? I think this season, with a plethora of returning talent and a soft schedule, is when the Hokies get back to their norm — competing for conference titles as a top 20 team.
The Hokies are still a ways from the top couple tiers of college football, but the days of losing to Georgia Tech, getting upset by bottom of the barrel teams, and limping along to a crappy bowl are, thankfully, in the rearview mirror. I think that materializes itself this season. I don't see a letdown game happening in terms of results, although I do think there are some very tricky matchups on this schedule. The Notre Dame trip is going to be the toughest test for a Fuente team at Tech. Miami has absolutely dominated the Hokies recently, especially in Coral Gables. I think the Hokies will drop those two road tests. No shame in that.
It feels overly optimistic to predict the Hokies to run the rest of the table, even with this schedule. However, if you go game by game, there's no team (other than those Wahoos) that should really test the Hokies in terms of talent, depth, or harsh road environment. Is this roster 10-win good? Probably not. But this schedule plays right into their hands.
At the end of November, I think you see a Coastal Division title, a 7-0 home record in "The Terror Dome" (which hasn't been too terrifying lately), no awkward upset, and a 16-game win streak against the UVa. Sheesh!
In the words of Michael Scott, "I am ready to be hurt again."
Final Regular Season Record: 10–2
Key Matchup: Wake Forest. November 9th. Lane Stadium.
Yes, I know. This is far from the sexiest matchup on even this cake pop (not even a cupcake!) schedule. But hear me out. Virginia Tech will be returning home from South Bend the weekend before, and Wake Forest is no slouch. The Demon Deacons have 7 players on Athlon's All-ACC teams, including 1,000-yard running back Cade Carney. Wake Forest runs one of the most up-tempo offenses in the nation, ranking 4th fastest in FBS last season and had the most offensive snaps of any team in the country. That will test a thin Hokies D-line, especially that late in the season. In fact, 5 of Tech's 7 losses last season came against teams that ranked in the top 38 nationally in plays per game, over 75. (Editor's Note: That's one heck of a stat.)
Over the Fuente era, Virginia Tech is 13-6 overall in ACC play, 7-5 at home. Considering last season, that's not terrible. However, the "Terror Dome" hasn't been quite what it once was. Under Fuente, the Hokies are just 4-5 in home ACC games against teams that finished the season over .500. Another, more concerning, tidbit: the Hokies are 1-5 in the first two weeks of November under Fuente. The game against Wake Forest in the second weekend of November. Big oof.
This is where the Tech program needs to improve. These games are must wins. You can't call yourself a "football school" and then lose to Wake Forest, or Georgia Tech, or Boston College at home. You just can't. The tendency of Fuente's teams to struggle in the dog days of ACC play is troubling. Has this program gained any sort of consistency this year? Will Lane Stadium turn back the clock to its golden days? I think both of those can happen, but this matchup against Wake Forest will be a test for the program, and may be the deciding factor in what looks to be a close race in the ACC Coastal.
Breakout Player:
I think it's going to be hard for there to be a breakout player on offense. Even if Tayvion Robinson is as electric as the coaches say, there's only one ball. And besides, this offense has expectations this season within the fanbase that will make it tough for any player to really step out of the darkness and into the light.
Because of that I'm looking defense. I'm looking at a player I covered in the spring of 2017. After an open practice that spring, he said he wanted to "have a career like Adoree Jackson from Southern Cal." After he moved to defense, he had Bud Foster "doing cartwheels and somersaults." That player is Caleb Farley.
Farley has the best combination of size and athleticism on the roster. He's the fastest player and has the length to win 50/50 balls in the air. He has excellent ball skills, as shown in the Florida State game last season. I also think many Hokies fans don't really process that last season was the first time Farley played defensive back in his life, and didn't get a full spring at the position, as he was working at receiver as well.
In terms of this season, you'd have to think that the pass rush will be improved because, well, it can't really be worse. It will also help that his cornerback counterpart will be better because, again, it can't really be worse. Both of those things will lead to more opportunities for Farley to make plays. We've also been told by Fuente that his tackling has improved. His effort in the tackling department was never a question last season. His form, on the other hand, was atrocious. Again, it can only get better.
As a player, I think Farley may very well end up having a college career like Adoree Jackson from USC, a freakishly athletic player with elite ball skills. If this coaching staff can take his pure athleticism and create a hard-nosed defensive football player, then I'll match Farley up against any receiver on the Hokies' schedule and feel confident he can win that battle. It's just a matter of learning on the go for Farley. I think he puts it all together this season.
Comments
IT'S GAME WEEK BOYS!!! LET'S GOOOOOO!!!!
HOKIES!!!!!!!!!
LET's GO!
15-0 BABYYYYY! PRINT THE SHIRTS!
Edit: Also James Mitchell will be huge for this offense. Even if his numbers aren't out of this world, the ability for an offense to send a 2 Tight End set out on the field and being able to run a complete spread or power run offense is a headache for defensive coordinators. It's what the Patriots are making a living off of. Send 2 tight ends out, spread them out and get the defense in a nickel or dime package, and then go no huddle. The defense gets stuck in their nickel/dime personel and you can line up and go to your power run game the next play. Can't wait to see how that use Keene and Mitchell together.
Great googly moogly that's truly hard to believe even though its correct. If we can get him and Hazelton on the field together more often, they'll take the defensive pressure off each other and should both have monster years. And if they work like they can, it should help take a lot of pressure off the RBs as well.
Agreed. Hazelton will see more playing time if he decides to provide block support throughout the season. That's what Fuente and Cornelson will focus on for him (of course in addition to catches and yards).
When it comes to season predictions, I am somewhere between FifthFuller and French, 15-0 or abstain. I cannot bring myself to make a realistic prediction. I do predict we get back to the ACCCG this year!
Key Match-up: Right now the key match-up feels like BC, and we all thought the FSU win last year was a tone setter and we know how irrelevant that became. It has to be Miami. As lame as the turnover chain is, it has brought some serious swagger to that team. And I couldn't believe it when they showed the stat during the game Saturday night: 58 take-aways the last two seasons, most by P5 program. Is Miami Bak? I think it is vitally important to the national perception of our program and to the attitude and buy-in of our fan base that we beat Miami. Ultimately, that game will mean more for Coastal race than the BC game.
Breakout Player: I'm between two, so I'll pick one on O and one on D. Dax! Some would argue he can't be a breakout player, he broke out last year. But he made a lot of mistakes last year, was out of place numerous times, and was hesitant in his reads. He is clearly 8000% committed to bettering himself and VT football! I think he becomes a dominant force this season. I'm predicting 3+ forced fumbles. And on O, Ryan Willis! The dude has a fire and spirit that remind me of Brewer, only Willis has a much higher ceiling. I think he takes a big leap mentally this season.
The dichotomy of this very reasonable statement kinda tells ya all ya need to know about the Coastal this season. Leg. I wrote a brief Coastal preview myself, which I'll paste below:
Need a high-energy positive start against a beatable but formidable BC team in what has traditionally not been a terribly hospitable environment. In other words,
Let's fuckin' GO.
FOOTBALL IS BACK THIS WEEK YES SIR
Every prediction I've made for the last two years had been both negative and mostly correct, so I'm kinda scared to make one now. But I'll go with 7-5 thanks to a disaster of a DL, and some bad luck resulting in at least one flukey loss
7 or 8 wins sounds about right. Fuente has delivered at least 1 head-scratcher each year, and you could argue 2. With our 8 FR on the 2-deep, that's the limit for me.
It's not just Fuente, Beamer was also good for at least one head-scratcher each year, with few exceptions.
Wasn't really trying to compare them. But sure.
Just pointing out the pattern has been going on much longer than just the last 3 years, so the smart money is on it continuing.
My heart sank as I read "The Black Friday trip to Virginia".
If we go worse than 8-4 with the schedule, pressure will be on....
There was a 7-5 prediction... I we go 8-4 or 7-5 with this schedule, this program is not moving forward.
Agree...8-4 is my conservative pick, 10-2 outstanding year. I feel we will improve from last year, but still be below where the bulk of the fans want to be......and then 2020/2021 with possibly new defense scheme......all bets are off.
I'd like to say 9-3, but add in one inexplicable loss, and I'm at 8-4.
I'll be happy if I'm surprised to the upside.
Let me introduce you to Virginia Tech football, inexplicable losses happen more than I'd like to remember!
Scoring by quarter:
1st - 59th
2nd - 37th
3rd - 117th
4th - 55th
We lost the BC game in the 3rd quarter with our atrocious offense. The Miami game turned into a rout in the 3rd quarter. Virginia scored 31 in the 2nd half to our 17 (14-3 in 3rd quarter). Perhaps the most egregious example was our complete lack of offense in the 2nd half against GT after coming out red hot. We probably lose that game regardless because of our atrocious defensive performance, but what happened?
Football is a complementary game, the offense and defense can have enormous impacts on the other side of the ball. The 2000's made us far too accustomed to assuming that the defense can weather a seemingly endless amount of offensive ineptitude and hold strong and win games with our offense failing to pull their weight. What Bud Foster managed to do for us in those seasons was not the norm, it was extraordinary from one of the greatest defensive assistants in the history of college football. This past season when the defense desperately needed the help of the offense to give them some reprieve, the offense was far too inconsistent and unreliable during crucial stretches. The UNC game was a pitiful showing from our offense. We made a pitiful UNC defense that had been shredded by ECU look a top 10 unit. The BC game was lost in the 2nd half by stretch of abysmal offensive possessions culminating in us handing BC the ball at our 20. I am desperately hoping the offense will be more consistent this season, and all the pieces are there for it to be exactly that. We cannot have another year of coming out of the locker room in the 2nd half and losing every ounce of offensive momentum we had in the first half. Are we losing the adjustment battle between our O/opposing D after HT every game?
Thank you for putting so eloquently what I've pointed out in less coherent fashion many times in the last year
This was incredibly frustrating last year. We rarely looked like we were overmatched heading into halftime only to get the doors blown off in the second half.
The SI article had a quote from Hewitt that mentioned how quick the offense and defense would turn on each other during games last year. I'm hoping that was more of the cause of what you outlined than just a symptom. But I imagine it was a bit of both. Either way though, better team morale can't hurt. I'm trying hard to be optimistic, but I still have to see it to believe it.
You aren't beating GT or Pitt last year with the 2001 St. Louis Rams offense when you give up 8 yards a rush... period.
Didn't even mention Pitt and utterly irrelevant to my point anyways. The defense needed the offense's help last year, and the offense failed to step up in several games, especially in the 3rd quarter. We need both sides to be better this year if we want to take advantage of this weak schedule.
Agree- Look at Fuente/Cornelson's numbers against ACC/P5 competition only. Hardly "great" offense thus far against peer teams. Yes, a bit more consistent drives, better moving the chains, but still mediocre in the red zone and trouble moving the ball well against good defenses. I'm looking for a lot of improvement this year.
Yep, this year is a major measuring stick for longterm trust in the FuCorn offense. It's year 4 in the offensive system with continuity at HC and OC, a returning QB, a talented, deep OL (at least on paper), lots of weapons, largely this staff's weapons at receiver, H-back, and tight end, and a very favorable schedule. The only thing they don't have is a proven, bell-cow RB heading into the season.
Agreed. If your system doesn't excel unless every single position group checks every single box you want it to, the problem isn't the personnel, it's the system. With this OL and this WR and TE group and with this QB, we should be able to get away with not having an elite RB who is gonna get 1200 yards at 5+ ypc. Unless Willis is more of a liability than an asset, we should continue to break school records on offense because the bar is relatively low to begin with.
I might have gone with the 2007 Patriots, but the point is still accurate.
Even the best offenses in VT history have disappeared at times in games, but I've never seen anything like the 2018 defense in 27 years of watching VT football.
The good news is that with even modest individual improvement from each of the returning starters, there's an opportunity for a pretty dramatic turnaround for the defense overall.
I don't know how anyone can look at the product we had last year and pin it all on the offense.
I don't think Chris is making that case as opposed to responding to and expounding on one single point from the OP
Fifth is clearly the only one with a clear head here. Let's look at the picks:
10-2
9-3
8-4
7-5
To the rest of the staff, where is the 13th game? Why are you predicting that we will be post season banned? Is this some story you've yet to break?
via GIPHY
so ready for this season to start!!
via Gfycat
Pretty cool, but that doesn't look like Hokie Stone.
via GIPHY
I only came for the Fifth Fuller prediction
I told my wife Saturday night that if I can't watch the hokies win, watching miami lose in embarrassing fashion is an acceptable substitute. However, with week zero behind me, I'm uncontrollably excited to see my boys take the field. 1-0, baby!!
Holy Schnikies is it finally game week?! Let's Go!
H O K I E S !
A lot is being made about our offensive talent, but I'm still very much waiting to see. Instead of a Breakout Play, I think we need a Breakout Coach. It's time for Corny to step up. Getting consistent playcalling and execution out of the offense is on him, and needs to be a lot better. For all the offensive records we've broken under CJF, much of those can be attributed to the installation of a modern offense. We need to be able to score in the 3rd and 4th quarter of games show we can put up more than 20-24 points on P5 level competition.
Yea i think that's what frustrated me the most last year. Obviously our defense was struggling and we would need to put up points, but our playcalling at times was mindblowingly conservative, especially in the third quarter. If we know our defense is going to struggle some and we are constantly reminded about how much talent we have on offense, then we need to see Corny turn it loose.
7-5 with this schedule gets Fuentes's seat torching hot.
Prepare the pitchforks, but with our front 7 on defense, 7-5 is a rational take. We are going to find out a little about our run defense against BC - if we look similar to last year against AJ, 7-5 may be too optimistic.
Name the 5
BC, Notre Dame, Miami, UVA and Pitt
Now that you type that, it looks damn realistic... wow.
Yikes I had the same thought. Lets just get this show on the road and see what we got! I am dying over here.
I have been preaching that the mob thinking around here has evolved our schedule into some kind of cake walk and it just isn't. Easier than average P5 yes, but that probably means about one more projected win.
No, its literally easier than every P-5 team. If Virginia Tech somehow manages just one more win this season with the talent we have and with the schedule we play, then this program is not on a positive trajectory.
Virginia Tech has the easiest P-5 schedule of any member
Virginia Tech's pathway to double digit wins does not look all that unrealistic
Virginia Tech's 2019 schedule ranked #65 out of 66 P-5 teams
Yeah I don't get the "the schedule isn't as easy as it looks" argument. Find 3 easier looking P5 schedules.
My point is it may be relatively easy but that doesn't mean it is a cake walk. Replace Rhode Island with Bama and we jump way up on the strength of schedule list but it would only result in one extra (likely) loss. Last year we scraped and clawed to 6 wins. This schedule doesn't come with automatic ACC wins, and there is a chance those teams turn out better than projections. 9-3 would still be substantial improvement, especially if there are no embarrassing losses, yet folks are talking like that would be underwhelming.
As a thought experiment, let's pretend 2020 is going to be a high point with Hokie Football with a senior laden team? How many wins better would that team be than the same team composed mostly of sophomores and juniors? My guess is that great team could expect an 11-1 record and it isn't unrealistic to assume it would be 2 to 3 wins better than 2019. That reverse math tells me we are on track for an 8 to 9 wins season this year. Throw in a W for an extra FCS game and my prediction is 9-3 and right on track. 8-4 would be very acceptable and yes 7-5 could be explainable if Murphy arrives.
There is a difference between "us not for sure winning all of our games" and "an easy schedule."
Our DL will likely struggle, and we've got a ton of young pieces that are still unproven, which could lose us games. That doesn't make our schedule any less easy, though. We've still got statistically one of, and in some cases the easiest P5 schedule. More difficult teams would lead to more losses, which is why some of us are pointing out that 7-5 or even 8-4 may hint we're not on a Conference Championship-type trajectory.
Notre Dame and Miami would be surprise wins IMO.
BC replaces a TON. I know they have a stud RB returning, but we should be able to score 30+ points against that D.
Pitt will be fighting just to make it to a bowl game this season.
And LOLUVA... Well, I'm not buying the hype. They return a pretty good D and Bryce Perkins. Lose any three of these games and we should be disappointed. Lose all three and Fuentes seat should be on fire.
Edit: I'm not saying we will win all three of those games. What I am saying is that if we go 7-5, that might actually show regression from last season, and that shouldn't be acceptable.
We're not returning any studs at DT, but at least we've got bodies this year. They're young and/or new to the system, and they will make mistakes, but I think on the whole the group will be much more capable of lasting an entire game. If the linebackers shine and the other position groups live up to their potential, it could be a very serviceable defense.
10-2. Speak it into existence. Failure is not an option
Every year I look forward to this article. And every year TheFifthFulller is the only one with any sense. 15-0 BABYYYYY THIS IS OUR YEAR WE MAY NEVER LOSE AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!
11-1
This is based on scientific simulations from SG1 sports
Linky: https://youtu.be/B-5_1lehcCc
If their simulation holds true, Hez will be the breakout player of the conference and Ryan Willis is going to rush for 15 TDs.
I watched that a week or so ago. Highlyyy doubt it shakes out that way, but a boy can dream. And the ACCCG simulation was about like the 2016 game...just the computer Clemson coaches have no idea how to milk a clock late in the game.
You can have this pair of O&M glasses. I have extras 😉
To all of you saying that Fuente's seat will be hot with anything worse than 8-4 (and some of you saying 9-3), there are 12.5 million reasons you are wrong.
Now, if he somehow manages to trip up badly enough to where we end up somewhere in the neighborhood of 4-8 with a loss to an FCS team, then I could see the boosters coming together to pony up enough for the buyout. Anything short of that and he's safe for at least another year (more likely two, since his buyout next season would still be $10m).
3 points:
#1 - He was already on the hot seat with the fans last year. Whit didn't hire Fuente just to keep the bowl streak alive, and a mediocre season should put him in the hot seat with Whit.
#2 - If the ACCN revenue projections hold true (somewhere on the order of a ~$10M increase per school in revenue distributions) then a buyout is financially much less of a problem.
#3 - As of this writing we are 0-0... save the pitchforks and negative waves for October please.
grrr... meant this to be in response to macgraw's post just above.
Turkey leg for Kelly's Heroes gif, such a cool war/heist flick.
Always upvote Kelly's Heroes
1) I agree that he is somewhat on the hot seat as far as fans are concerned, but unless they're willing to pony up extra cash for the buyout (and we already weren't hitting our fundraising goals in the last few years despite being decent) we won't have the cash to pay the buyout with.
2) If we start getting an extra $10m just from the ACCN, I'll be a bit surprised.
3) I'm not the one brandishing a pitchfork. I'm just responding to everyone who's expecting a coaching change should we finish 7-5, which is completely unrealistic.
All good - wasn't trying to point directly at you, just in general at the community at large. I for one am pessimistic but I'm going to simply enjoy the fresh start to the season for what is it is and hold back any venom I feel the need to spew at least until October.
Im skeptical on the payout directly associated with the ACCN as well especially since there are still missing agreements with a couple major cable providers, so we just have to see what happens at the end of the ACC fiscal year.
Cheers!
1-0
That's a lot of hurricane cancellations.
9-3. Lose to ND. I'm betting we'll beat Miami so the other 2 losses are going to be very disappointing. Pitt and let's say GT or UNC for pure WTF factor.
In my first 30 plus years of being a Hokie fan I had no expectations for Tech's season beyond hoping they would have a winning season. All that changed with the win over Texas at the end of the '95 season. The last 25 seasons(yes I'm old) I have gone into the season expecting a great year: winning season with a great bowl win. Sometime it didn't end as I hoped but I never lost that hope. After last year and all it's downers I am going into this season expecting disaster to strike.
When Fuente was hired it was expected that the offense would quickly turn into a high scoring elite unit and that the years of relying on the defense to win games would be over. How has that turned out? Offense has been hampered by QB turnover, poor RB production and play calling in the redzone at times is mystifying. And then last year Bud could not overcome the inexperience and poor Dline recruiting to produce even a mediocre defense.
I like a lot of what I read about what Fuente and staff along with the players are doing to right the ship, but until I see it my expectations have hit an all time low. This year 6-6 with a lousy bowl loss is the best I can expect while weakly hoping for 8-4.
I respect your prediction....but today you are "Thrill Kill Will".
This is your daily reminder that a 6-6 season will result in the end of the bowl streak, unless one of the losses is to Furman or Rhode Island. 7-5 or bust.
Forgot about the FCS scheduling penalty. Makes me feel even worse about how bad it could get.
1-0. Fifteen times.
Thanks, Coach Beamer.
10-2, because I hate happiness. Believe this team is capable of beating every team except 1 on the schedule, and we haven't seen ND take a snap yet. Though seen a lot of solid points made here about sneaky teams like Wake. Part of my logic is we are so far off the radar. Watched The Huddle, literally an ACC Network football show, and if VT came up even once I don't remember it. Hell, I was excited about the show just because I figured we would get some air time because it's solely ACC. Disappointing for me, but I like our potential with no expectations outside of the fanbase.
6 wins: Hot seat for Fuente
7 wins: Warm seat for Fuente
8 wins: Simmering questions
9 wins: Next year looks big
10 wins: we bak
11 wins: ACC will be ours won't it?
12 wins: Notre Dame was overrated and we are amazing
13 wins: Clemson ain't played nobody Pawl!
14 wins: Oregon wasn't that good anyway
15 wins: Alabama might want to buy out Saban, we on top!
@Brian and @Joey, nice calls.
Also VTKey and Giles County Will.