The delays are over, and the schedule is finally here (complete ACC helmet schedule is here).
Sept 3 Ga Tech (Monday)
Sept 8 Austin Peay
Sept 15 at Pitt
Sept 22 Bowling Green
Sept 29 Cincy (Washington DC)
Oct 6 at UNC
Oct 13 Duke
Oct 20 at Clemson
Nov 1 at Miami (Thursday)
Nov 8 Florida State (Thursday)
Nov 17 at Boston College
Nov 24 UVA
Our opponents in 2012 will be much tougher than those we faced in 2011. Last season we didn't play a single non-ACC BCS opponent during the regular season. This year we play two: Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, neither of which will be in Lane. Also, Wake Forest rotates off of the schedule and Florida State comes on. So we play the two best Atlantic Division teams.
Hosting Georgia Tech Labor Day weeked to start the season is an obvious luxury. We'll be able to prep to defend the option during spring ball and August. It's also fortunate that we play North Carolina in the first half of the season. The 'Heels are very talented, and return Bryn Renner behind a veteran offensive line, but it will take them some time to learn the intricacies of Larry Fedora's spread. Playing Duke the week before Clemson is a bonus too.
The trip to Death Valley marks a three game stretch that could make or break the season. Last year, the Tigers limited our otherwise productive offense to 3 and 10 points, the lowest totals on the season. When (moderately) healthy we had success stopping Chad Morris' offense, but stopping Tajh Boyd and a bevy of playmakers is no easy task. We do get extra rest before heading to Miami for our first Thursday night game. Four extra days between games is important to 1) get healthy and 2) refocus after a big win or loss. Miami is team in transition —lacking depth and they're young— but Al Golden is working to change from a flashy to hardworking team, so expect another well contested game.
Florida State is my preseason favorite to win the ACC. To summarize Heather Dinich, "THEY'RE BACK!" Returning talent that is, from Bud Elliott of Tomahawk Nation.com who had the following to offer.
FSU returns its quarterback, roughly 70% of its carries (no defined starter at tailback), 7 of its top 8 receivers, and four starters on the offensive line. Some services list "two" returning starters on the offensive line, but the other two seniors COMBINED to start only five games total as they were lost to injury.
On defense, FSU returns 100% of its defensive linemen from the ACC's best defense [4th nationally in total-D, VT was 10th]. FSU has to replace Nigel Bradham at linebacker, but does return five of its top six including Christian Jones. And the 'Noles return three of four starters in the secondary, and five of their top seven. Kicker dustin hopkins returns, but FSU must replace punter Shawn Powell.
It looks like FSU will be a tough out, even at home on a Thursday night.
We finish the year against two improving teams. Boston College is looking to bounce back from a disastrous 4-8 season. Losing Montel Harris for spring ball isn't going to help them though. Harris tweaked his left knee (the one that caused him to miss most of 2011) in an early workout and will be held out.
Before 38-0, UVa looked like they had turned an early corner under now third year (pun intended, maybe?) coach Mike London. Then, well, the Hoos didn't limp through the finish, as much as they got beat from behind with 2x4s across it. The Cavaliers young talent is certainly starting to mature, and they're a pretty well coached and hungry team. I don't expect another blowout/shutout like last year, but I predict a win.
As of right now, I would set the over/under at 9.5 regular season wins. How many do you think we'll win? Do you guys think the schedule is manageable? Aside from Virginia, what are our must-wins? What games are you heading to the 'Burg or elsewhere for?
Comments
observations
brutal stretch run with clemson, miami, and fsu AND all three have bye's to prepare for us?!?!? wow.
i'm aiming to be at the following in order of certainty :
cincy
ga tech
fsu
@ pitt
@ unc
uva
Here's how I see it...
I can't predict anything. I'm really interested to see which of the receivers rises up to claim the Alpha Dog spot. We've all predicted breakouts by Marcus Davis and/or DJ Coles, but they've always been in Boykin/Coale's shadow. Wanna see if one of those guys steps up, OR if Dyrell can come back as the straight burner.
The secondary is intriguing to me also. I think Dietrick Bonner is going to be one to watch. He seemed to come on strong at the end of the year. Would like to see him mastering the Boundary Corner spot, so that Fuller can roam more in space at the Field spot.
As far as the schedule - GT is manageable, they always start out slow. Cincy and Pitt could be penciled in as W's. I think they eat UNC's lunch. Austin Peay, Duke, UVa, BC - Duh. Miami will be a tough out - too close to call. Clemson is tough to call as well. If it is Clemson from last year, then - "L", but Clemson could be in the middle of self-destruct mode by the time they roll around. VT gets FSU after a bye week, but FSU has to come into Blacksburg. In November. On Thursday. Night. I say it's a win.
GT starts slow?
Weren't they leading the country in points and total offense after the first few weeks? Tevin Washington actually looked like a real threat as a passer.
Granted it was against crap competition, but still...that's the case for most teams early on.
GT's first 3 games
Western Carolina: 1-10 in the SoCon, gave up at least 31 points in EVERY GAME OF THE SEASON.
Middle Tennessee State: 110th in scoring defense
Kansas: 120th in scoring defense
Woof.
I'll take the over.
Most winnable to least:
Austin Peay
Bowling Green
Duke
@BC
@Pitt
UVA
Cincy (DC)
GT
@Miami
@UNC (coming off DC trip, 2nd consecutive road game)
Florida State
@Clemson
I see 8 wins there without much further thought. The other 4 could be dicey. I like our chances of getting 2/4. Maybe even 3/4. FSU, Miami, and Clemson all get open weeks to prep for us. UNC gets a tune up v. Idaho.
Yikes
I am a little worried. I didn't realize our schedule was going to be this tough. I will probably go to the game at FedEx, maybe Ga Tech, FSU, UVA? I hope we win 10 games, but could see us only winning 8.
at least GT on Monday night shouldn't interfere with Jimmy Buffett's annual Labor Day weekend concert at Nissan (not announced yet, but its been that weekend for the last several years).
Definitely a tough schedule though. At Klemson, at da U, and vs. FSU could be brutal. Hopefully we will be mostly injury-free going in to those games. Ending the regular season with a win over uva is always nice too.
Like every year, I see no reason why we can't go undefeated and beat the noles for the acc title on our way to beating LSU for the national title to set up a huge game with Alabama to open the 2013 season...or, i might just be a little ahead of myself
love it .. exactly my train of thought as well.
Must Win
As a long time Hokie fan, every game this year is a must win. The big games are a must win, whatever bowl, hopefully national title game, is a must win. I dont think we can afford to lose any game this season. Tech needs to run the table and show the rest of the country we can hang w the big dogs. My hopes is we play a big 12 team for the national title. I would love for it to be a sec team but that would further provide evidence to the sterotype of the sec being untouchable. Fuck the sec
Am I overreacting?
Despite it being a less-than-notable FCS opponent, we've scheduled Austin Peay a mere 5 days after the Monday night opener against Georgia Tech. Yes, that three-game stretch beginning in late October is going to be a monster, but I don't get why we're back to doing things like playing games on a short week?
I think one reason we did that is because we are playing at home vs. GT, so we don't lose a day for travel
It's more beneficial to have byes at the end of year.
Rest and refocus at the beginning of the season isn't nearly as important.
Austin Peay has gone 3-13 in Ohio Valley Conference play the past two seasons and over that same time have been shellacked 72-10 by Cincy and 70-3 by Wisconsin. They are not good. JMU would blow them out by 50. All I-AA is not equal.
Basically we needed the easiest possible opponent to play on the short week.
I'll buy that
I agree; AP is certainly not the same team that we faced in JMU in '10. Madison and (to maybe a lesser degree) App State are probably the exceptions and not the rule when it comes to playing 1-AA teams.
After some of the comments following the scheduling in 2010, this made me think twice for a minute. But you're right, we're going to need the bye far more later in the season that we do after Ga Tech.
It Depends...
All depends on:
1. If Logan Thomas has another monster season.
2. If, yet again, a somewhat improvised offensive line can perform well. Numbers 1 and 3 hinge on this.
3. If the newcomers and old faces at running back can provide sufficient production.
4. If the defense is as good as we expect it to be, especially with the return of a number of our injured starters
from last season.
In my opinion, maybe 2 of those happen (LT and the Defense). It all depends on the O-Line. If they can gel, all four will work. But as we all know, Tech's O-Line has historically been the question.
If all four come together, it's going to be 11 win regular season with a loss to either Clemson, GT, or FSU and an ACC Title (likely beating either Clemson or FSU in a rematch). Next season could be special unless the BCS decides to continue its clingy and self-serving relationship with the SEC.
Don't get me wrong, I will be happy with an 8-10 win season as next year there are various areas in which we have very young talent. However, I BELIEVE that this team can win 11 or maybe all of its games in the regular season and reach the NCG. Chastise me if you will -- "Oh well, we think that every year" -- but I think this year could truly be it.
i agree with you, 100%
our d is going to be top 3 in the nation, and lt will be just as strong as last year. if we find a gem in holmes and/or coleman, and our receivers produce (who aren't as inexperienced as outsiders believe), i sincerely believe we will have a special year.
let's go!!!!!!
FSU's D
was #4 last year and returning 9 starters. VT was #12 last year with a much EASIER schedule. By your reasoning, it should be an even more special year for FSU. VT has many more question marks at linebacker and defensive backfield than FSU does. Conserve your enthusiasm, this is more of a rebuilding year for VT with 8 new offensive starters. 2013 should be better (if Fuller and LT3 don't bolt for the NFL).
nahhhhhhhh
i'm an optimistic person by nature, can't help it. besides, we don't rebuild, we reload...hence the 10 win streak.
logan is going to be the best qb in the acc, our recievers all have started games in the past including the straightburner so the 8 new offensive starters is a bit misleading. we reload every single year at running back ....so the only real question, which is a question every year, is the line.
i'm not worried about our offense.
i'm hyped, so stop trying to bust my bubble. lol
"Way too early and way too negative" prediction
Sept 3 Ga Tech (Monday) W
Sept 8 Austin Peay W
Sept 15 at Pitt W
Sept 22 Bowling Green W
Sept 29 Cincy (Washington DC) W
Oct 6 at UNC L
Oct 13 Duke W
Oct 20 at Clemson L
Nov 1 at Miami (Thursday) L
Nov 8 Florida State (Thursday) L
Nov 17 at Boston College W
Nov 24 UVA W
So yeah, 8-4 as a floor. Obviously 12-0 as a ceiling. I do know that Clemson is going to drink our milkshake once again. If we couldn't score more than 10 on that horrid, horrid defense (still a mystery to me), there is little chance we'll do better against a Brent Venables defense on the road. Then again, there is the significant possibility of Clemson being Clemson and derping the whole season away.
At UNC and Miami and Thursday FSU are coinflips to me, could go either way.
Seasons where we had back to back Thursday night games:
2011: W,W
that is harsh
and i'm hoping we don't hit your floor. ha
i see 2-l's. @clemson and @miami (you all might have figured out i always pencil in a loss to miami to start the season, i'm terrified of them for some reason)
Hidden in the schedule is the fact that Clemson, Miami, and Florida State all have byes the week before they play us. In addition, UVA will have 10 days (Thursday night the week before) and Georgia Tech will have the whole offseason. So 5/8 ACC teams we play will more than a week to prepare for us. And that's not even counting UNC, who plays Idaho the week before we travel to Chapel Hill.
We caught a break with the schedule last year, and now we're facing its wrath this year.
I would argue that only 3 of those teams (Clemson, FSU, and UVA) have more time to prepare than we do. Still, brutal that our two best opponents have a whole week.
hmmmm
i don't know why everyone is so concerned about time prepared, we aren't gtech.
against fsu and clemson, it will be more about our line play than time prep, IMHO.
More time to recover
Players get over injuries during byes. Players rest and "get their legs back," not as tired. And, coaches have more time to plan and implement a scheme. It is a huge deal to play all these teams after their byes.
yeah
i understand all that, thank you.
i just think line play dictates the outcome of a game more so.
While
the schedule is tough one has to remember this is the same ol ACC that we make fun of every year for lack of competitive teams top to bottom.
I do not have any faith in the rest of the league until they prove me wrong so I like VT's chances to be right in the hunt as we are the only constant in this league besides Maryland players transferring
Coastal Division
Miami has the easiest. UVA, UNC and GT are manageable. VT's is definitely the toughest.
The only difficult part of UM, is going back to back at BC and at Kansas State to begin the year. They also play Notre Dame in Chicago. So, their toughest games are OOC. They play at GT directly after Bethune-Cookman, get UNC and FSU back to back at home, VT at home after a bye, and end the season at UVA, USF, and at Duke. The only team they play after their bye is VT. Based on schedule, Miami is the team to beat in the coastal this year... Oh, that 4-letter station will love a UM-FSU ACCCG.
at least
if that happens, they would play the acccg in charlotte. lol #partialwin
Scheduling Conflict
My new little Hokie is due on 9/1. Let's hope the wife doesn't wait to go into labor on Labor Day, or I can't watch the GT game...such a good husband, right?
They have TVs in the delivery rooms nowadays right? haha
i agree
with this possibly being a special year. i think a great QB, which we will have, is one thing that is needed, a great defense the other. LT will make the rest of the offense play better ... the last piece of that puzzle, for VT, is doubt, nay-sayers, talk of being the middle of the ACC, that FSU and Clemson will woop our ass .. and it sounds like that piece will be there too
ACC is the ACC
I'll be worried about FSU when they field a team, and not just a collection of extremely talented players. Clemson.....I just don't get that one, and Miami is always scary to me. But remember, this is the FSU that lost to UVA at home last season, and Miami still hasn't seen the result of their violations, so who knows what to expect from them.
As of now I'm more scared of UNC and Clemson. Big lines always stump us.
I say we go 2-1 in the Clem-FSU stretch and then maybe drop one other in our traditional meltdown game. I like the enthusiasm above but we aint goin to the MNC. It just isnt happening for a number of reasons. I see no reason we wont do our normal 10-3 or 11-3.
I've already got permission from Mrs BCH for Cincy and GT is right before my bday so thats pretty much a given. Other than that I've never seen us play FSU in person so that may be a priority. Then theres always some random game I have no plans on attending and get a phone call on Thursday night before the game and someone offers me ticket and away we go.
As far as dark horse upset contenders, how about the Bearcats? While there will be plenty O&M in the stands, its still a game 5 hours from Bburg against a well coached team that has some speed. Then theres fake Tech. I know PJ's record when the opponet has time to prepare but they start every season strong with new wrinkles that seem to take people a few weeks to figure out. I'm gonna be very nervous Sept 3
Special Teams
No worries about the defense and our offense is usually serviceable by the end of the season. Real question I see is our special teams play, replacing a long snapper, new kickoff guy, new punter, and new place kicker. Could decide close games. Also would hope to reduce penalties and bonehead plays on special teams. With that in mind I agree with Joe putting us around 9 wins with a good chance at another 10 win season. 2013 will be Frank's year to go all out.
Damn.
Didn't even think about that. I guess that proves that we take the Special Teams for granted at Virginia Tech... Hopefully all the newcomers can jump right in and perform to the caliber we're used to.
On that note, last season's unit was a real eye-opener. In a bad way.
"2013 will be Frank's year to go all out."
If Logan Thomas is still at Tech and not in the NFL.
/incoming objects being thrown
//ducks
No incoming objects from this direction.
It may just be that all of the early departures lately have me jaded, but I fully expect Logan to head off into the sunset if his draft grade is anywhere close to first round which I think is likely barring an injury.
worried about the defense
I think we'll have a good defense, but I'm not ready to attribute "no worry" status. There are several things to be concerned about, especially in the secondary. And let's not forget how much we rely on our secondary. Need some young guys to step up quickly. And we need to avoid injuries at certain positions.
Don't really think we can be that good this season.
Oline is undoubtedly the biggest uncertainties. But as well as our defense played last year, we didn't really see any dominant pass rusher like Andre Branch or Coples. I think that's why we struggle against any team with a big line. And it's probably not going to change this season.
Special Season
Maybe it's because my first Hokie "game" was the lightning game when we opened with GT, or maybe its the fact that the first game I won't be at will be the Miami game, but I have a very good feeling about this team. The defense has the makings of one of Bud's best and I honestly believe just that combined with LT and at least decent OL play is enough to get us back to the ACCCG. If one of the running backs steps up and takes control then this season really has a chance to turn into something great, the schedule shouldn't keep us out of the NCG discussion and if we give GT a beating on Monday night with the nation watching it will kickstart the campaign perfectly.
Going to be in Columbus,IN next year.
Not sure if I can make any home games. Right now the Fedex game seems most likely, but definitely wish I can be there for GT as it's usually the most nail-biting game in our season.