Statistical Analysis: Predicting Draft Likelihood

First off, want to give credit to u/dabressler on r/CFBAnalysis. Here's the reddit post, and here's the link to the full piece. Moving on...

The analysis takes 4 inputs - Recruit's home city & state (or region), Position, Evaluation score/rating (aka 247 score), star count, and college the recruit committed to - and determines if there is a correlation between these 4 variables and IF the player gets drafter. And it turns out that there is.

Some interesting takeaways:

  • 1% of one stars get drafted, 2% of two stars, 6% of three starts, 19% of four stars and 49% of five stars
  • The rate at which players get drafted increases as stars increase across all positions (except one star safeties, on a base of only 15 players, ie: not statistically significant).
  • Interestingly, players labeled as "Athletes" have either the highest or second highest rate of getting drafted across all star counts.
  • When comparing expected draftees against actual draftees, VT slightly underperforms, sending less players to the draft than expected given our players' home town, position, and recruiting score.

Anyways, super cool read, enjoy!

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