We've taken a long look at the minutes played by the bench, but after staring at box scores for too long I started looking more closely at our scoring. I realized quickly that all 9 of our usual players have hit the "Top 3" on a night - including Ojiako. Through 15 games, we've had 45 chances for a player to hit that "Top 3". Here's the breakdown:
| Game | High Scorer | 2nd High | 3rd High | VT Score | Top 3 % of VT Scoring |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson | Nolley (30) | Alleyne (11) | Horne (8) | 67 | 73.1% |
| Coppin State | Alleyne (18) | Nolley (11) | Radford (10) | 74 | 52.7% |
| USC Upstate | Nolley (23) | Cone (11) | Cattoor, Horne, Alleyne (9 ea.) | 80 | 76.3% |
| Lehigh | Nolley (27) | Horne (14) | Cattoor (11) | 79 | 65.8% |
| Delaware State | Alleyne (20) | Cone (17) | Wilkins (15) | 100 | 52.0% |
| Michigan State | Nolley (22) | Horne (12) | Bede (11) | 71 | 63.4% |
| Dayton | Nolley (15) | Cattoor (12) | Alleyne (9) | 62 | 58.1% |
| BYU | Nolley (22) | Horne (13) | Alleyne (12) | 77 | 61.0% |
| Duke | Horne (15) | Bede (12) | Radford (12) | 63 | 61.9% |
| Chattanooga | Alleyne (22) | Nolley (19) | Radford (8) | 63 | 77.8% |
| Gardner-Webb | Nolley (18) | Wilkins (13) | Cattoor (11) | 73 | 57.5% |
| VMI | Cattoor (14) | Wilkins (13) | Cone (9) | 64 | 56.3% |
| UMES | Nolley (18) | Cattoor (17) | Ojiako (15) | 92 | 54.3% |
| Virginia | Nolley (18) | Radford (8) | Horne, Cattoor (4 ea.) | 39 | 87.2% |
| Syracuse | Cone (19) | Nolley (13) | Horne (12) | 67 | 65.7% |
The data has some interesting points:
- Our "Top 3" scoring on a given night accounts for 52-87% of VT's total points.
- Bede, Cone and Radford have been part of the top 3 scoring only 10 times.
- Alleyne has missed out as part of the Top 3 for five straight games, after being in the Top 3 for 7 of the first 10.
So breaking all that down led me down another rabbit hole - at the player level, how many of the points are coming on "hot" nights versus "not" nights? So I put together another table...
| Player | Times in Top 3 | Points as Top 3 | Total Points | % of Pts/Top 3 | PPG/In Top 3 | PPG/Not Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolley | 12 | 236 | 257 | 91.8% | 19.67 | 7.00 |
| Horne | 8 | 87 | 128 | 68.0% | 10.88 | 5.86 |
| Alleyne | 7 | 101 | 140 | 72.1% | 14.43 | 4.88 |
| Cattoor | 7 | 78 | 107 | 72.9% | 11.14 | 3.63 |
| Cone | 4 | 56 | 98 | 57.1% | 14.00 | 3.82 |
| Radford | 4 | 38 | 117 | 32.5% | 9.50 | 7.18 |
| Wilkins | 3 | 41 | 81 | 50.6% | 13.67 | 3.33 |
| Bede | 2 | 23 | 87 | 26.4% | 11.50 | 4.92 |
| Ojiako | 1 | 15 | 54 | 27.8% | 15.00 | 2.79 |
This gives some more food for thought:
- Nolley, even on an off night, is still productive at 7 PPG but also has the widest separation between his 12 games as a top 3 scorer and the remaining three.
- Radford has the lowest differential at 2.32 PPG.
- Cone, Alleyne, and Wilkins - with 14 appearances in the Top 3 - all have a separation of 9+ PPG between when they're scoring and when they aren't.
So in summary, I think the data does show some hope. All 9 of our regulars have hit into this odd metric, and my thoughts are that this data supports the view that when someone has an off night, someone else is stepping up. Look at Jalen Cone's performance against Syracuse as an example.
I'd welcome anyone else's thoughts in looking at this. Have a great week, y'all!
Comments
Thanks for doing this (Leg!), good analysis.
I think this points to Mike Young building a broad scoring base as a part of the team offense which makes the opposing defenses tough to just key on one guy. Love that!!
I think your initial point - that all 9 players in the normal rotation have been in the top 3 - suggests that this team is pretty deep, at least from a contribution standpoint.
It makes me curious to know how our mid-to-low end contributors (like the 5th, 6th, 7th-highest scorers on the team) compare to similarly ranked scorers from other ACC teams.
Is the team deep or shallow? It could be that there is parity in terms of talent and a starting 5 had not separated themselves from the rest. I suspect we will start to see minutes and points consolidate into fewer players as the season progresses.
As a followup to Homebrew and Steve...
I ran the same numbers for NC State ahead of our game tomorrow.
VT and NCST are close in NET (we actually just swapped positions 49/51).
Here's the chart for NC State:
A few takeaways:
Overall, this should be a good matchup tomorrow. I'll be in Section 17, just off the Frontage Road.... See you in Cassell!!!
Looking at just ACC games, they have 5 players averaging double figures. Interestingly, only 3 players have started all four ACC games and only one of them is in the top five for scoring average in ACC play. Their top scorer(Bryce) has only started in 1 ACC game; their third highest scorer(Funderburk) has not started a game and only played in 3 of the 4 ACC games. They have played 10 players in ACC games but only 8 play significant minutes.
The point of all this rambling is that is that NC State seems to shuffle their line up a lot. I don't if that is looking for the hot hand or just playing a lot of players because they have the depth.
Bryce is in concussion protocol and probably is out tomorrow which is big.
I was afraid he would be. He got hurt Dec 29. Three weeks is a long time unless he has a very serious concussion.