Kirk Herbstreit doesn't believe college football or the NFL will be played in 2020
"I'll be shocked if we have NFL football this fall, if we have college football. I'll be so surprised if that happens," Herbstreit recently said according to TMZ Sports.
The ESPN analyst further explained his opinion is based on the fact we likely won't have a vaccine for the coronavirus for some time. When you take that into consideration, it may be tough for football to continue until that time arrives.
"Just because from what I understand, people that I listen to, you're 12 to 18 months from a vaccine," Herbstreit continued. "I don't know how you let these guys go into locker rooms and let stadiums be filled up and how you can play ball. I just don't know how you can do it with the optics of it."
Well that's a sobering thought.
Comments
I would think there is too much TV money involved to at least not play these games in front of empty stadiums. I think the vaccine will probably be created sooner than you think, but the production of 100's of millions of units I imagine would take several months to get up and going.
Everyone literally said the exact same thing about the NCAA tournament. It is crazy to think, but I don't think it is ridiculous to think or fair to say that it is just about the money given how much other sports have already sacrificed in terms of money.
Its a little early to know if we're going to have to cancel football season. if anyhting, delay them
You are absolutely right. It's too early. It's too early to know if they are going to cancel the NBA and NHL seasons. But to say there is too much money involved to cancel something, is just wrong. The NCAA lost $375 million due to cancellations.
For your first sentence... You don't think this is the case for professional Basketball, Hockey, Baseball, etc. ? For your second sentence... speculation is speculation.
There are already multiple vaccines that have entered limited human testing. However, the "12-18 months" figure is how long these things take to get from "starting limited human testing" to "being approved by the CDC". Can't take a chance on something that might not be very effective at stopping the virus and could also cause unknown severe side-effects. Manufacturing and distribution is a very small fraction of the time required in this process.
FDA
FTFY. Not that it's a critical detail, but the FDA approves, the CDC implements.
The discovery/development/production of therapeutics will have a much greater near-term impact than a preventative vaccine.
If this vaccine works, they're already saying it won't be available for distribution until 2021.
Edit: Statement withdrawn.
Lessons learned.
Dude. Stop making everything about Trump or "Trump's administration." That's just going to reignite political debate.
Almost EVERY projection from every epidemiologist, NIH, etc. says this is going through the summer. It's not like it's unique to the current administration.
Just me, but I simply took it as "given the information that has been reported by the administration"
Just using a politician's name in a post does not inherently make it political. If there were any commentary about the administration, or opinions given about the administration, I could see your point, but there is none here.
While it is a factual statement and I generally agree, he also posted another comment that had to be edited in another thread because it started a tangent. I want to stomp any potential flare-ups, especially when the same person does something across multiple threads.
the CEO of Carnival was on HBO last night saying the cruise lines are planning for this to last through the end of the year, for what its worth.
Had to talk one of my little sisters in college out of going on her spring break Carnival cruise... I was encouraged to do so by parents who she was not keen on listening to, but I was happy to give the assist.
I was on a conference call yesterday and our expectation is that we will be working from home for the rest of this year...
One of our upper level guys sent out an email the other day - we had initially planned on being home until Mar 27 and now it's extended to Apr 17. I wouldn't be surprised if my company did keep us off site for months. We're in really good form, as an entire company (300+) to work from home, our TechOps group is incredible. So it makes me thing why we got that bigass building. I mean I like the gym and the indoor pool but that a lotta building.
Funny you say that, our insurance/bonding company, since all the "work from home" decrees have came down, is seriously considering closing their main office due to the increased productivity from working at home.
I mean that seems fair, no? I'm considering whether working from home increases my own productivity. Can't blame no one for thinking about this.
Incorrect. Nearly every epidemiologist is not saying "this" will go throughout the summer - if by "this", you mean business and commerce remaining largely shut down.
The sober ones who aren't being paid by the cable news networks to create the next worst headline are more optimistic, but not pollyanna about it.
We have no idea how many people are already positive for the virus, are relatively asymptomatic, and have (or will soon have) developed an immunity to it. It could already be in the millions.
You're going to need to bring some sources on these epidemiologists you're referencing when you're coming in this hot. Also, I don't want this thread to devolve into "mainstream media/fake news" discussion as that is inherently VERY political.
No, you're making it political. I didn't single out any outlet. I'm criticizing the TV media of all stripes.
Nevertheless how about, for starters, googling John Ioannidis (Stanford), Jeremy Faust (Mass General) or Eran Bendavid & Jay Bhattacharya (Stanford).
Now about you provide some epidemiologists who can say with certainty how it's going to play out? Or even where the middle of the bell curve is in their projections rather than the worst case scenario? And if the scientific consensus settled, why are many of the original projections being revised downward with each day?
Social Distancing and State Lockdown policies that have been enacted since those projections first came out
This is what we run into every hurricane season or tornado etc. "why did you make us leave it wasn't that bad"
So, in something so fast moving, what makes today's models any more accurate about tomorrow than yesterday's were about today?
The problem with most of the models is they are largely static analyses which only take human action and ingenuity into account retrospectively.
We are going to look at this a month from now and there will be developments to attenuate this situation which aren't even (or barely) on the radar right now.
Four people, three of which work for the same research institution, does not qualify as "nearly every epidemiologist." The majority of those people's work is questioning the fatality rates (which we know are lower because lack of widespread testing, most accurate numbers in South Korea) and then questioning that "millions" will die. At this point whether it's millions or not or the fatality rate is .6% instead of 4% doesn't particularly matter because we are seeing hospitals overwhelmed in multiple countries already. What we do know from experience so far is that the overwhelmed hospitals are artificially raising the mortality rate of the virus because we can't effectively care for everyone who needs it.
Nobody can do this because no legitimate epidemiologist would make bold and certain claims about how this will play out exactly in good faith. If you find someone who is, I'll show you a liar looking for clout.
The downward trends are factoring in suppression and assuming suppression continues.
You asked for names and I provided them. It's not as though there are hundreds of people doing the analyses; 3 opposing studies is not insignificant. Am I supposed to search out and provide every other dissenting voice? There they are plenty of them. And what does the fact that some are from the same institution have to do with anything? Is Stanford not good enough for you?
How is itI have to provide names but don't? Because you claim to have the largely incorrect-to-date "consensus" on your side? Provide the names and do some digging. You'll find little details; just dire projections.
Most apocolyptic projections have been either shoot from the hip, based on clearly dated, flawed models, or taken out of context by headline seeking, layman media. Headlines like "the U.S. has now passed China in COV-19 deaths" are actually considered serious reporting and then used by gadfly's all over the web like this place to inflame fear.
The more thoughtful, boring, sober analyses have been far less dire.
My post was in reference to the fact that the disease is likely to still be a problem, not that we will still be on a total economic shut down. The context was lost when the original post was edited, so that's not obvious when you're coming in a day late to the conversation. But I don't think I'm incorrect.
Moderators Unite!
I disagree. Stadiums may not be full though.
This is alarming for me to think how much of my social life revolves around sports (from little League up)
Esports time.
Now go sanitize that hand, young man!
Drago = Coronavirus
Rocky = NCAA Football
Duke = the collective us.
Wait, who is Creed in this analogy?
LOLUVA of course
our full of 5 stars 2021 recruiting class. I was hoping the team would show out this year and get people excited.
It's okay, 2022 is the year the elite class comes together.
Nah, they'll get passed on the depth chart
2023 is the year 80% of them hit the transfer portal
"It's not Fuente's fault he recruited bad apples. He'll fix it and 2024 will be incredible."- Fuente apologists
I guess we're still doing this? I don't give a shit what the record is, I just want to watch the Hokies play some football. To each their own though.
Creed is actually the NCAA Tournament. Rocky is the 2020 football season.
Coach O and Saban have reached the folks down south...maybe it is football that really makes us get a better grip on this thing. Football may have to go to Russia (quarantine) and go about it a different way (no spring practice), but in the end...beat the shit out of Dolph Lundgren.
Unfortunately, I think he is right. While flattening the curve is the right thing to do, I believe it also prolongs the course of the pandemic as the area under the curve does not change. Flattening the curve allows for hospitals to not be too overwhelmed by the number of cases rather than if we were to just do next to nothing. This thing will continue for a long time.
Well I definitely turn to ESPN talking heads for my medical news so glad we cleared that up
He answered a question about sports and used information from the medical community to back up his position.
How presumptuous of him!!!/s
Must admit, I can't fault his logic, even if I hope it's wrong. Here's to HokieTapes to help us get through the tough times!
Sigh. With Hokietapes gone, this possibility has hit a all new level of suck...
While he might be right, I think holding the standard as "until there is a vaccine" is a bit off based. Not litigating the whole flu vs. covid thing, but I highly doubt the majority of college athletes currently get the flu shot. What's to think that would be any different with covid? Even if one is developed, it would presumable take longer that 12-18 months for it to be distributed wide enough to make "sports safe again". If the goal remains to bend the curve to keep hospitals from being swapped nationwide, then at some point life is still going to return to somewhat normal. Maybe college football has extra layers that make the 2020 season less likely, or maybe it's bumped back a few weeks. I have little doubt the NFL season will be played this season.
Because Covid-19's mortality rate is a lot, lot higher than the flus.
Right, but we have no clue if that would continue to be the case down the road once a substantial subset of the population has presumably been exposed to it. I just don't think the standard for a return to normalcy can be "once we have a vaccine", since having a vaccine + enough quantities of it to be as easy to get as a flu shot is what, 2 years away?
Based on how easily this virus transmits between individuals, the numbers I've read say that upwards of 60% of the US population would need to be infected before herd immunity starts to kick in.
What will be interesting is how many people will have the antibodies present for CV-19 later on. There is a growing belief that this disease might have globally spread long before we really knew to start testing for it, with early cases misdiagnosed (or, in many cases diagnosed without a test) as influenza. If this is the case, there is the chance that a far larger percentage of the population might already have those antibodies present than we think right now, and we actually might be better off than we think. The problem is, we need to test to know.
Fauci was on the Daily Show last night and he had some really interesting things to say. The first is that this virus can live on flat, smooth surfaces for a lot longer than you'd think. So it is vitally important to wash your hands after pretty much every time you touch a doorknob in public. Also, this can be transmitted through liquid particles in the air, so if someone is infected and sneezes in a room, the air around that spot could be contagious for upwards of 15 minutes, so its very important to cover your mouth when you sneeze or cough. Also, there really isn't a reason to worry about packages you get in the mail, or food you pick up at the store. The packaging material really doesn't lend itself to keeping that virus alive for long. The last thing he said is that, based on his professional opinion on researching hundreds if not thousands of viruses like this, if you do become infected and recover, your immune system should be able to fight it off easier down the line, so the risk of reinfection should be low. Can't say anything with 100% assurance now, but that is his professional belief.
So just wanted to follow up on one thing you mentioned. (My wife works in a field related to responding to pandemics (without specific attribution)). She told me the reason that it lives on surfaces a lot longer is because what normally happens with viruses is that they dessicate and die on hard surfaces pretty quickly. The outside of coronavirus doesn't dry out like normal viruses which is why it lives longer. The same thing that makes it live longer on hard surfaces seems to also make it viable on things such as paper and cardboard for around 24 hours.
Here's a {link} that shows specifics on how long it lives on various surfaces. It also says that the virus can survive up to 3 hours in the air.
Scary stuff.
Stay safe everybody!!!
If the virus can survive for 3 hours in the air, we're all doomed to get it anyway. Six feet isn't going to do Jack Diddly Squat. Hell, I could walk 12 miles in 3 hours.
that's the point of social distancing. to limit each person's travel. to reduce the amount of viruses in the air and on surfaces.
Unless you want to go golfing for your tee time, then that's perfectly fine.
/S
I was sick in November for about 10 days with the exact symptoms of COVID-19. I am talking really damn sick. Tested negative for flu a/b. I got nearly everyone I came in contact with sick as well. My mother had a tough time shaking it. Are they thinking its possible the disease had been around even that far back?
Yes, actually.
No.
Haha
I had a terrible bug end of December. Wondering now if it could have been CV-19. For days I felt awful though, chills, fever, etc. Doctors tested and said it wasn't the flu, that it was a "flu like bug." I live alone and basically quarantined myself to keep from spreading it so I don't know if it spread easily or not.
Ironically I forced myself out on New Years Eve to go to a Yacht Rock concert with some friends, decided to pound a dozen white claws and a few Gin and Tonics, got absolutely hammered and woke up next to a qualified blonde Clemson grad. Besides the hangover, was totally cured of the flu like bug. Perhaps White Claws and one night stands are the cure for CV-19....
I'm positive they're not
Technically, the science trial I conducted is in my favor. Have any more been attempted?
Also, I'm a qualified expert because my bro in law is a doctor
I've been hearing this to, but what I haven't really seen is an explanation as to why its suddenly overwhelming the medical system especially in NYC. It also seems like it would have hit more vulnerable places like nursing homes on a larger scale.
My opinion is that the symptoms of covid-19 are not particularly special. So, anybody with a viral infection the last 4 months that tested negative for flu thinks he/she had the coronavirus. The spread pattern doesn't support earlier exposure from my vantage point. The vast majority of early detected cases had a connection to oversees. Who knows for sure.
These two statements together are probably the best explanation I've seen for why what people think might have been the coronavirus was not the coronavirus.
Among whom? I haven't yet seen this supported by any experts in the field, but could've missed it.
It would dispute a lot of data supporting the current understanding of the epidemiology.
Among internet posters who assume that their cold in Nov/Dec was COVID-19 because it took longer than usual to shake it.
At this moment, you're correct. But IMO we can't make these blanket statements off 3 months of data vs tens/hundreds of years worth of data from the flu. There is most likely hundreds of thousands (maybe millions) of people who haven't been tested yet (if ever, whether by choice or no access) or have already fought it off and didn't even know they had it...I know back in late February, I had the symptoms... cough, sore throat, running nose, headache, spitting up colored mucus, etc... I might have had it, maybe not, maybe it was the flu (but I haven't gotten the flu in like 15+ years)... I kinded just shrugged it off, took some meds, got more sleep, took vitamins, drank plenty of water, etc., and I eventually fought off.
Now it very well may be worse than the flu as we look back in time, but I think we need more substantial data/testing to come in before we make that statement.
Those same reservations can also apply to the flu. Many people get the flu and are not tested for it.
you're absolutely right... my main takeaway is still 3 months of data vs tens/hundreds of years of data.
I agree. If you think the Super Bowl would have been canceled if the timing of this was two months earlier, you got to be kidding. Money talks, and bullshit walks. King Goddell has already said the NFL Draft will go on as scheduled, and any criticism of his decision will be subject to punishment. I had to laugh.
I can possibly see college sports being affected this Fall, but the Jerry & Roger Show will go on.
I was listening to sports radio this morning and they were saying that they had heard from Bronco Mendenhall, who stated that their absolute latest possible date to get everything in was August 1.
The coach of ND was on SVP's sport center earlier this week and said he felt the guys had to start organized conditioning by Jul 1 in order to not delay the start of the season. His rationale was you have to run these guys through 4-6 weeks of conditioning (for safety reasons) before starting any organized practices. Felt July 1 was the decision point.
Of course, the next night, on the same show the commissioner of baseball said he was hoping to start the season May 15 or June 1st.
at least he appears to have learned his lesson when it comes to prioritizing safety over football????????????????????????????????????
Only when it suits him
What about students in dorms in the fall? Will this still be a thing?
I feel for the seniors this year missing out on graduation and everything that entails.
Yep...2020 has sucked all the way around..
I know how they feel. Last time life at tech was upended this dramatically was my graduation year, but then at least it was limited to tech and not the whole world.
Sounds to me like we're going undefeated in 2020 if thats the case.
We need to stake our claim to the natty and update the wikipedia pages right away.
Theme parks and other large gathering places (movie theaters and sports leagues) are beginning to reopen in China and other areas of Asia. If we use that timeline, we should be "back to normal" on 2-3 months which would be by July 4th. It would suck for the NBA and NHL, but football should be good to go if that's the case 🤞🙏
It would be very interesting to see what the NHL and NBA would do in this scenario. I think they would at least want an abbreviated playoffs, but the challenge is that it can't push too far into August because then it impacts the next season. The best bet might be an 8 team playoff, and a best out of 3 first round and a best out of 5 semis and championship to get everything done in 4-5 weeks.
Can't be disappointed by Fuente if the season never happens.
But you can furlough him for 2020- just another state employee.
But does that take another year off his buyout? It really starts dropping after this coming year.
The fallacy of appeal to false authority.
Herbstreit knows football. But he knows no more than the average layman about virology and infectious disease - and quite possibly less.
My wife has severe asthma, so...we've been extremely cautious. I'm just thankful that after 20 years of living in the suck which is active duty Army between SOF and conventional forces, I have a job now which supports me telecommuting. My wife is (now was) a very successful Real Estate agent, obviously with our precautions and future economy her business has suffered some. We can keep the lights on and put food on the table, I'm just not ready for a fall season without VT football...losing The Masters in the Spring was hard enough!! Also, quarantine will turn a functioning alcoholic to Johnny Cash real quick...amirite?
Until we start to reach a peak of infections, it's impossible to say when social distancing will cease to be a thing. And you can't have football u til that happens. Probably months.
Thanks china!!!!...wait am I allowed to say that?....oh dear....god I'm losing MY MIND....stay safe key players and let hope we will be jumping in September...if not then...well...that will suck
It came from China!
A caller on EITM called it the Wu-Flu
Bats are for hitting baseballs, and nothing else. Because someone used it for something else we can't hit baseballs now.
After all of this mess has passed, I hope we are all a lot more thankful for all of the pleasures we have in life such as college football. I'll be honest, I was really starting to be pretty disappointed and put off by the negativity towards VT's recruiting, coaching proficiency/success, facilities, etc, etc. I know when we as fans invest so much of our time and especially money into our team, we can become very frustrated when we lose, because let's be honest, winning is so much more fun. But supporting a team is a choice we make that shouldn't have any influence on what really matters in life. I have certainly been guilty too of taking certain things in life for granted. In the future, let's remember to support our team during the best of times as well as the worst of times because we're thankful just to have them there to support.
On 3/29/20 it's hard to imagine that there will be football. Herbstreit (and the rest of the world for that matter) are just suffereing the effects of a mass collective case of recency bias.
Chances are that events will unfold over the next few weeks that will result in our coming back together socially in some form or fashion, and that football will be played in some form or fashion.
I admire your optimism and hope you are right.
However, your comment up above about "we will all get it anyway," doesn't make me think you've been following this very closely.
The measures we are taking now are not only to limit the total number of cases, but to SLOW the spread so we don't end up like Italy where there are patients dying in the hallways and hospital beds lined up outside hospitals full of people because so many people got it at the same time that the healthcare system couldn't handle it. By the way, we have more people per available hospital bed than Italy.
We've surpassed Italy. We also have refrigerated trucks that we are stacking bodies in. We don't have enough beds or ventilators. Our testing system is in shambles.
Nice of you to call his faux wisdom optimism. Very few comments aged more like milk on this thread than the one above yours.
there's really no need to turn this into Old Takes Exposed
You definitely have a point about recency bias. I remember back in the couple of weeks after 9/11 wondering how TV would ever be able to get back to normal. It did.
I've seen a few people at various boards going all in on "everything will be changed forever", and it's starting to get a little annoying. Some of these people think we're going to be maintaining social distancing permanently. I'm pretty sure that by Black Friday 2021, everyone's gonna forget about the six foot rule. (I'd say Black Friday 2020, but there's still a chance that current conditions will linger long enough through this year that folks will at least still be thinking about it.)
Okay TKP, which of the following is most likely:
Football not being played is depressing to think about so I'll not choose that. I'm still going to try and be a realist though so I'll choose another team winning the coastal.
Y'all, I just thought about Brock Hoffman not getting to play another season and got devastated for him and angry at the NCAA all over again.
Don't get me wrong, a pandemic is probably a fine reason to not have a season. But him getting screwed out of last year is still inexcusable, and now this is potentially the result.
So if the season is canceled do the players still use a year of eligibility? Because that's basically what would need to happen for Brock to not get to play again. Maybe I'm reading your post wrong.
The vote for spring eligibility is this week. That's not even guaranteed. Winter sports are not getting eligibility back, or completing their championship events.
If the season gets cancelled, I'm betting there will be lots of underclassmen going early for the draft.
When I think of the sports eligibility, or of the grade schools that have cancelled, I keep thinking of a scene in Spiderman: Far From Home. After Thanos, and the reversal from Endgame, everyone who was disappeared and returned had missed five-ish years. There's a high school media crew at Parker's school, griping about having to redo an entire academic year when they had already completed half of it before Thanos said "oh snap."
It's just a really weird situation. It seems to me that the fair solution would be to restore a year of eligibility to all the winter and spring sports. And even if that happened, I would expect many (if not most) of them to forgo it and move on with their lives; those exercising it would mostly be those with serious title potential, and borderline pros trying to prove themselves.
Of course, it's the NCAA, so who knows.
This isn't good....
This isn't exactly the news you wanted to see if you were hoping to see the NBA or NHL resume their seasons
China delays restart of basketball, other events
I also get the sense it's a LOT worse in China than anyone actually knows. It will be interesting to monitor as we get into warmer weather.
I just want the NHL season to be cancelled already so I can be refunded a pair of tickets I purchased. There is no way it will still happens, especially a regular season game.
I'll take anyyyything at this point. iRacing is THE only sporting event I have to look forward to every week. Back before the Daytona 500, they showed one on tv and someone asked me if I watched (I love Nascar, if y'all haven't caught on) and I said "hell no." Now it's appointment television in our household.
I find it very interesting how the NASCAR community has flipped from "e-racing is a joke and a kids' game" to "hey this is actually pretty good" over the last two weeks. It certainly helps that sim-racing is probably the only type of sports sim that requires even remotely close to a similar skill-set as the real deal, but that doesn't explain why your average fan was so staunchly opposed to the concept even a couple months ago.
I, too, am a NASCAR fan (though I sorta lost interest for the last few years and only really started watching again last summer), but despite never tuning into any of the "eNASCAR" events before the Homestead event a couple weeks ago, I thought it was pretty neat that there were drivers that started on iRacing and whatnot that graduated into the real thing. It adds a *ton* of accessibility to an otherwise prohibitively-expensive sport, and I wish that I'd had access to it as a kid.
I credit what is now an extremely antiquated NASCAR game with helping me avoid flipping my car at 70mph on I-95 with the wife and kids inside. It was one of those early 2000's feedback steering wheel games with a brake and accelerator and I was used to maintaining and regaining control when the car lost traction.
A guy wearing a beanie pulled up sufficient to block his peripheral vision, changed lanes and inadvertently forced us onto one of those ribbed shoulders. The car started to slide and I wound up using all 3 southbound lanes to regain control. Fortunately traffic was light and the cars/truck behind slowed and gave us the room.
None of this is good if you hope to see any organized sports until fall, 2021, let alone football this year.
Yeah, I'm guessing sometime around November 4th, 2020 - dunno why... things will start to open back up in a huge way and people's attitude towards this will change in a big way. This will be a bigger factor than a vaccine.
I'll be fine if they cancel Halloween. Hate that "holiday" anyway but I'll go banana if they cancel Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Speak for yourself. Cancel Christmas, keep Halloween.
The eye candy at this years Halloween is going to be like none other after this lockdown, and as a single man, I look forward to it.
Everyone dressing like Carole Baskin and Joe Exotic isn't eye candy
Yes, the administration in charge of making decisions on a federal level will influence the way many people feel about how it's being handled.
We're all going to leave it at that, though.
Ahhh, the glass half empty message board crowd searching again for reason to be pessimistic...
The supposed experts who develop the models on this situation have been dreadfully wrong - and continue to be wrong. And always on the pessimistic side.
So why should I believe this guy from the NCAA or the guy from the Fed know no more than the average informed citizen - and in particular the people who disagree with their perspective? If these guys are wrong, are they going to get fired or anything? No, of course not. It's easy to spout off when there are no ramifications to being wrong.
- model based on best available information
- adapt behaviors to improve situation
- adapt models as more information becomes available
- adapt behaviors appropriately
- situation improves
Some people: see, the models were wrong the whole time, it wasn't that bad!
It's sorta like the original models didn't take in account the complete change in everyday life that the majority of the world is experiencing now.
Exactly. Now it's time to look at what comes next after "-situation improves."
As far as the outbreak in general, we can now probably afford to handle the situation regionally. Unfortunately though, that won't work when it comes to college sports. If Miami-Ohio ain't playing, I'm afraid no one will.
Yeah unfortunately I think unless everywhere is open to the same level that becomes very hard. All the noncomference schedules would become even crazier then they already are.
(sorry, I couldn't resist the irony. not saying you're wrong, but it is really easy to spout off here without ramifications too.)
"All models are wrong, some models are useful," as the saying goes (often attributed to George Box, who never directly said those words, but it's a reasonable paraphrase).
I think it's better to take too pessimistic of a view and be wrong than to take too optimistic of a view and be wrong 🤷♂️ especially when it comes to something like mitigating the severity of the spread of a global pandemic, ya know?
Its like the pot calling the kettle irony
Uh... you do realize that the USA now has over 500,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and that number has increased by over 30,000 per day over the last week? The count of new cases finally seems to have leveled off, but only after significant measures were (and continue to be) taken by local and state governments to limit community transmission. And if things go back to normal too soon, it could easily get this bad again.
Chances are we won't return to what "normal" used to be 3 months ago until either half or more of the nation has had the disease and recovered, providing a chance at herd immunity, or until a vaccine is developed and has become widely available, which absolutely will not happen in 2020. The only question is, how close to normal can we get while keeping things under control?
Unfortunately the best "chance at herd immunity" has been mitigated by the strict mitigation.
If we wait for a vaccine before returning to some form of "normal", we will all be standing 6 ft away from each other in the soup line.
At this point, if the government wants to truly get back on track, they need to AGRESSIVELY pursue rigorous antibody sampling. Like every man, woman, and child. We also need factual, detailed medical history data on those who died.
Once we have a clear grasp on who's had it and is OK, and who is truly the most susceptible, we can protect the susceptible, and open it back up for everyone else, and keep it open. This idea of rolling blackouts of the US economy is a horrible idea. It's the largest GDP on the planet... Not a light switch.
I'm not sure how strict it really is.
Even when a stay at home order is in effect, it turns out half the jobs are essential.
essential or "essential"
This is what is really grinding my gears lately. my company is exempted as essential industry on a federal level by Dept of Homeland Security. We provide packaging materials for food, pharma, just about everything. etc etc etc. So we're an important industry and it's important that our manufacturing/production isn't hamstrung by any shut down. in actuality, corporate has taken the stance that every job role in the company is blanket deemed essential because of the company's overarching exemption, and it's business as usual -- not just production, but also sales, office support, and (importantly in my case) R&D.
my site is R&D. we have about 130 people if everyone is in the building. managers are now working 90% remote (minimal coverage in the building). technical staff are expected to work with implemented safety policies and not have productivity fall off, and some of us in certain groups have been allowed to work 1-2 days a week remote (i rotate with two coworkers). I have a PHD and am a bench chemist (ie, I run chemical reactions at work). Nothing I am currently working on is covid related (e.g. can we minimize our supply chain competition with ingredients for sanitizers and disinfectants) , or even relates to any key customers -- it's all low-probability-of-success moonshot ideas that are 2-3 years (at my most optimistic) from seeing the market. If i was told to stay home and read papers and patents for two weeks, it would be a dream and actually help set up some of these projects for better success.
There's no reason my role should be deemed "essential" to the crisis, but here i am still driving the 35+ miles to work 3-4 times a week, stopping to get gas (which in NJ is stupidly full service only), being in and out, etc etc etc.
Honestly, now of all times I would think full-service gas makes sense. Sanitize all the handles before and after each shift and only one person touches them. Now if only they could figure out a way to handle payments without the employee touching everyone's cards...
Every time I've been in the last 3 weeks, the attendant has been wearing gloves and a mask, which is good. I would much rather pump my own and just use a chlorox wipe before and after, like I've been doing at grocery self check.
Still, unless they change gloves between handling a customer's card and touching the pump that does nothing to reduce cross-contamination.
or just spray the gloves with 70% alcohol... A main advantage of gloves is you can continually use an antiseptic without damage to your hands. Further, it's easier to disinfect latex or nitrile than skin. So, gloves are useful, but continual application of antiseptic is necessary for their utility.
I used to agree that we need to produce significant numbers of antibody tests so that anyone who tests positive can get back to work and whatnot. Then I heard someone say it's a terrible idea because a bunch of people will hear that and decide to seek out the virus so they can get out of quarantine sooner. At first I thought "who would be stupid enough to do something like that", but as I thought about it more I remembered all the dumb shit I've heard of people doing and now it makes more sense.
In any case, we'd need detailed info on more than just the dead, but also anyone who needed hospitalization and survived. IF we decide to reopen, and have a surge of hospitalizations as a result, it could still be disastrous. And even if we come up with a list of criteria for being "most at-risk" and say that only people who don't meet those criteria can rejoin society, we're gonna have a ton of pissed-off people who are going to break their own isolation anyway.
No matter how we slice it, "reopening the country" is going to be messy.
.
Merp.
Any way football could be pushed back to the spring without it being a logistical nightmare? Treat February like August camp, and the season starts in March. Most non-conference games overlap with the end of basketball similar to how most non-conference basketball games currently overlap with the end of football. The season ends around June.
do you then start the 2021 season as normal in august?
That's my logistical concern because A) you miss out on another spring session and B) it throws off normal recruiting periods. However, a lot of schools' athletic departments will not be able to operate without some sort of bailout without football, so I think it is likely they make it happen one way or another. Heck, some schools in general might not be able to operate without football. The NCAA can't wait and see with this, though. They need to act soon.
In that scenario, I would. Everyone loses spring practice, but hey, that means no competitive advantage as long as everyone is losing it.
Summer sessions become more tempting, as coaches look to teach and develop, but I would keep the normal restrictions on organized practice - don't break down the players' bodies any more than usual. Even more important if they were just playing real games in the spring.
Fall camp then becomes even more important. But everyone's facing the same crunch.
Then get back on schedule with the fall kick off. Early season may be sloppier than usual, but there's going to be an inevitable recovery period. Just accept that the season will always be abberant, rip off that band aid, and try to get back on track.
529 has cancelled the Commonwealth Clash for next year.
I would love to take the Chinese Basketball idea and play every game in one city for the season,But there are only so few places that can do that, logistically, and I can only think of one off the top of my head:
Dallas
--Cotton Bowl, Ford Stadium, Carter Stadium, Cowboy Stadium, Frisco, Star Center, Univ of North Texas
Honestly, that only really makes sense for basketball because teams play 2-3 games per week and only have 10-15 players on the roster. Considering that there are 20 teams in the CBA, you'd only need to house 200-300 players, plus coaches and staff (certainly much less personnel per team than football) for 20 teams.
If you did that for NCAA Division 1 football, you'd need to find accommodations for at least 10,000 players, plus additional coaches and staff for 130 teams. Even if you can somehow manage that logistical nightmare, you probably have to cancel all the FBS-FCS games, and even if each team plays exactly 11 games and you rebalanced the schedule with each team now having 2 bye weeks instead of one you would have to play 55 games each week, or roughly 8 games per field you listed in every 7-day period. Even if you play 3 games on each field every Saturday, that means you're likely going head-to-head with the NFL (who in all likelihood is doing something similar) on Sundays and still running games on each field every night from Tuesday to Friday as well.
In other words, not a chance. If you told me that each conference wanted to try to play most of their games in a central location I'd say they were probably crazy but might be able to make it work, but there's no way the entire Division 1 is going to do that.
Big 12: Dallas
Pac-12: LA
ACC: Raleigh-Durham
Big 10: Ohio, just the whole daggum state, cause they can't count. Still.
SEC: Atlanta
So I guess that means we're just cancelling non-conference games in this scenario?
Yeah, the playoffs will do that for us.
Mountain West: Bay Area California
AAC: Houston
MAC: Detroit
CUSA: Miami/Ft Lauderdale
Sun Belt: New Orleans
So, you're suggesting putting all of the teams in hot spots for CoVID-19.
They will have long since peaked and no longer be hot spots by then. But, a funny initial take.
You seem very confident with your statement. Care to share proof to back it up?
Detroit and New Orleans are already peaking per their respective state governors. Will there be additional waves? Second and third peaks? Maybe but you can say that for the whole country - just as likely if not more than those cities specifically
https://www.wsj.com/articles/detroit-approaches-its-coronavirus-peak-115...
https://www.newsweek.com/us-coronavirus-hotspot-updates-latest-covid-19-...
Based solely on which locales had at least 2 or 3 stadiums available to pull this off. Not paid attention to the specific hot spots.
Worst case scenario- if the season is canceled, we need someone to put together a "best of" all-time season. Best week 1 game, best week 2 game, etc. Maybe that done through a series of TKP polling. We can all rewatch and comment together still, maybe establish a "schedule" of what time archived game tapes are viewed matching original kickoff times. I don't know, just spitballing here.
Good news here, i) we should largely go undefeated, ii) younger Hokies will get to see marque games they may otherwise never sit down to watch, iii) we should largely go undefeated...
Might as well just rewatch the 1999 season at that point. Not a terrible idea, to be honest.
With that said, not a bad thought exercise. Maybe try to tie each games with either a game we actually played against that opponent, or an equivalent matchup.
Liberty - 2014 William & Mary - just a random opener against a boring team from the commonwealth
Penn St - 2009 Nebraska... Tyrod
@ Mid Tenn St - 2017 @ ECU... Because we beat the doors off them and fuck em, that's why
N Alabama - 2005 Ohio - nice comfy shutout before conference play
GT - 2005 GT - 51-7 pantsing of the #15 team in the country
@ UNC - 2016 @ UNC - Even though it apparently didn't count
BC - 1999 BC - the one that clinched our place in the natty title game
@ UofL - 1979 @ UofL - Our only win there in 3 tries.
@ Pitt - 2016 @ Pitt - We did a great job of pushing off that night.
Miami - 2011 Miami - LT3
@ Duke - 2018 @ Duke - took the lead early, held on late. Beamerball magic
UVa - 2016 UVa - 52-10, because fuck 'em, thats why
ACCG - 2007 vs BC - fumble return late to ice it. Revenge
Bowl - 1995 Sugar Bowl vs Texas
I prefer the 2005 Gator Bowl for Louisville. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmW4rcwy2ok
(Minus "The Stomp" of course.)
Good Lord, we had some junkyard dogs on that defense. If targeting had been a thing, half the defense would've been arrested, much less ejected.
Interesting - that's a different approach than I originally intended but would work too. My original idea was the all time best game ever played that week... so "week 8" this year is BC, but all time great games played in week 8 might include 2003 vs Miami or 1999 at WVU. That approach would be more challenging but could be very interesting.
For the bye on Oct 17 this year, 62-0 vs Syracuse. All time throttling.
Oh, man, if I weren't so drunk, I might have been cringing at the beatdown we put on them.
"WE TOOK 'EM BEHIND THE WATERSHED!"
"WATERSHED!"
Yeah, I was lit. A fifth of Captain, smuggled into the game in a tenor drum, will do that to you.
Why not the 2016 opener against Liberty? It's Fuente's first game and we get to see Liberty lose.
Unless the point is to not watch Liberty.
Fumble induced flashbacks of what happened the following week.
We lost four fumbles against Liberty. Four
They made their choice to reopen campus during a global pandemic that is impacting us stateside, so I'm trying to be responsible for my community by practicing active social distancing from them as a whole
This is horse shit.
Where is the 0-0 shootout against Wake Forest?
Is there a betting site taking bets on if there is a college football season during fall semester? The more and more I talk to people around the country involved in public safety and emergency management the less and less likely I think we have a football season. It just won't be viable. Too many parts of the country will still be showing community transmission and you can't really have a season without almost the entire country being past that.
Whoa. And they consider themselves a soccer city.
Listening to the Ticket in Dallas right now, and they are talking about the idea of NCAA playing the college football season from Feb through April.
That would be weird, but given the revenue lost if they do not play at all it could end up saving some non-revenue sports.
A football season that starts cold and ends warm?
I could be down for that
If they end up doing that, they should move a bunch of bowl games to cooler-weather locations.
Would be crazy with temps and snow in northern states.
Then turn around and have football in Fall 2021?
Honestly that seems like the only way it currently makes sense. If sports are played at all next year I guarantee football will be among them, but I can't see anything starting before January right now.
shit. an additional downside I just thought of. lolUVA is 100% going to claim they held the commonwealth cup for 2 consecutive years.
Meh, it's still in diapers then. Call me when it gets to 16 year range...
or cancel the entire season except rivalry week ... to be played by teams remotely in a bunker under the Atlantic Ocean.
Given some schools have already announced that classes in the fall will be online, this probably is your signal that we aren't seeing football this year.
Is the assumption then that the 2021 fall season would go on as normal? Because I could endure no football this fall if I knew I'd get two seasons in 2021.
That's a big question. If this year is effectively a wash and we bump it out to the Spring, what are the ramifications of having even a shortened season the Winter/Spring semester to what we can do in the Fall? I assume it would be too harsh on player's bodies to play 20+ games over the span of 12 months, and if it isn't, doesn't that largely invalidate a lot of the claims on why kids can't go straight to the NFL out of high school?
There's a big difference between playing 20+ games over 12 months and playing 16 games over 17-18 weeks.
Not to mention the difference of playing against other guys who are in different stages of body development and strength & conditioning and playing against grown ass men. I don't know too many 18 year olds who would stand up too well getting hit by NFL caliber players.
another issue is "offseason recovery" time-- tear an ACL and you could effectively miss two seasons instead of one
Arizona president says fall football increasingly unlikely, more answers needed
Got to imagine that is step 1 in having a winter/spring season though. I like the odds of something being played, even if it is just a 9 game schedule.
I (personally) don't think a spring season is likely either - too much coordination between March Madness, baseball, NFL draft, etc. I think the latest it gets pushed would be a shortened season starting in mid-November, finishing in late January/Early February.
But that's just my guess.
This might be a possibility. It would kind of suck (especially with a premiere game against PSU this year), but I could see conferences just having all their teams play their in-conference schedules starting at a later date, avoiding any issues of non-conference teams being unable/unwilling to play. Then those schools simply don't factor into conference standings, but also don't mess up other schools' schedules.
I could also see a compressed/later season this year resulting in a compressed (perhaps again only in-conference) season next fall given the number of games that would be played over that timeframe.
Wonder how Notre Dame, Army, Liberty, BYU, UMass and NMSU are going to handle this, but that's none of my business
TBH, I could see each conference playing just conference games, and doing it on their own schedule, which would be fascinating.
There are a lot of other questions too (concerning spring football).
What does this do to player eligibility?
Scheduling agreements? Shared stadiums? TV scheduling?
Does it shift recruiting dates?
Can a player who enrolls in January play Spring football? What about one who graduates in December?
When can a spring football player hire an agent?
What if a particular school decides not to do spring football? Will they just pick up again in the fall?
Practice timing.
Enrollment into the school.
Draft....and combine...and how it affect the NFL season. Think a kid like Burrow could play 15 games in spring, and up to 23/24 games in the fall (I know it's a stretch, but all preseason plus SB run...) But you get the point.
Yeah if I'm a top NFL prospect and you want me to play in the spring then again in the summer or fall I'd have to seriously consider shutting my college season down after about 4 games.
Yup. And the Combine is a big machine for the NFL. Without that, and getting the players on the workout/meal/playbook/routine settings for the club, the landscape could look very different. Kids could simply sit a season to go to a combine type setting. While other work their tail off and are out of gas 5 games into the NFL season. A lot of moving parts, and shifting one affects three other things seems like.
And if that occurs, how does the school fare at the end of the day? Do they falter, and in correlation the donation go down? Going be interesting to see how it all plays out.
I would imagine that the NFL will be facing similar problems. Whatever time table college football is on, I would think the NFL is on a similar one. I wouldn't be especially worried about the draft and combine in relation to the season.
What I'm concerned about is compresisng the two seasons. Will a senior play 5/6 games in the fall and actually come back to play in the spring, if the season was split? And how does that affect the draft. And how that affects the school and the football landscape. Imagine this past season...if LSU smoked everyone in the fall by an average of 60-10. The seniors have their resume...but no matter, most kids go to the combine. The Srs don't come back, and they lose a close game on the road, say to UGA. Are they still a selection for the playoff? Will the Srs stay? Can a kid that graduates in Dec be eligible to play in the spring...either for his team, or for another team...in the same season?
Say it is split. The combine typically allows kids to skip the spring semester if they wish. Now, the combine either can't be held at all or it pushes it to May...pushing the draft to late June or July? That has a big effect throughout the roster and signing of players. Even if the NFL is on a similar timeframe, it moves a lot of parts around, a lot.
Ah I see what you're saying now. I think the thing that people sort of underestimate when it comes to the draft stock thing, is a lot of these kids are competitors. They want to finish what they started with their teammates if they still have a chance at winning something, I mean I can't think of anyone sitting out something other than meaningless bowl games? As to the eligibility question, I would imagine it would have to be your roster at the start of the season is your eligible list or something. But all of your points are pretty good, no real answers yet.
But to your point about the draft and the combine, the NFL isn't going to want to have the combine in February if they still have games going on. I would imagine they'd have to shift free agency and the combine and compress the offseason assuming any of this happens and it's not just a lost year.
Kids are competitors, but they'd have parents, friends, potentially other players telling them they should sit and not risk injury for their draft status. Especially in a situation where the college season is shifted ahead and you're looking at wear and tear on your body in the spring, then summer then fall, and with no real offseason to recuperate from minimal/moderate injuries.