From VTGuitarman's previous thread:
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XVII part two?
I part XVIII
(fixed, thanks)
Around 5pm today, UNC athletics announced it will suspend activities for a whopping 24 hours at least. Not sure exactly what will change in a day, except maybe they will have bought some more time to continue a slow trickle of bad news about the football season.
Only five threads too late
Pre-coffee TKP'ing is dangerous. Groundhog day has me feeling sluggish.
Study on pediatric patients finds
https://www.jpeds.com/article/S0022-3476(20)31023-4/fulltext
The above tweet is from the author of the study. They measured viral loads in kids 0-2 days after symptom offset, compared to symptomatic adults, seven days after symptoms onset. Viral loads after seven days are probably going to be a bit lower.
Not saying you are wrong, or the study is wrong... Just a little perspective and context.
Why would they not compare both at two days? Seems an odd comparison to draw conclusions from.
Probably because that's the data they had.
Do we know this? Because couldn't it also be that adults with severe symptoms have a higher viral load as the virus continues to multiply in their body compared to when they were first infected?
Ultimately I think the concern is that children who are infected with Covid have a high viral load early in the process, which makes screening for infections and preventing the spread that much harder.
If I were a coronavirus sports book, and we could post a wager of 7 days on lower viral loads in adults, where are you placing your actual money, and not your turkey leg money?
Honestly, for severe cases (as stated in the paper) I'd vote money that viral load is higher after 7 days in adults.
But let's be honest, neither of us are experts so what's the point of debating this?
It's all good. definitely not an expert. I was never trying to get into a debate.
Cautiously hoping for the best that (1) I'll be getting back to the office regularly (2) my wife will get called back to work (she worked from home before all this) and (3) our daughter's school will stay open full time as planned.
But the 3 of us working or studying from home in the ~1,000 sq ft house was not pleasant, so in case things don't go as well as hoped, we finally outbid others (as opposed to us being outbid a couple of times) and bought an ~2,500 sq ft home just a few miles away. 2 smallest bedrooms will become home offices and we will have a 3rd work station set up in the dining room if needed. Also a home gym with fitness equipment in part of the finished basement. Bigger and more expensive than I had hoped for, but it is a sellers market - and I guess I have been frugal all of these years for a reason.
congrats!
Gratz on the house. Hope it is everything you wanted.
Carrying over from the last thread...Dr. Marr's (VT prof) twitter blog is a very good resource re: masks/transmission.
https://twitter.com/linseymarr?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7C...
I'll also add this specific link taken from there
http://built-envi.com/what-kind-of-mask-should-i-be-wearing-to-protect-a...
which closes with simple recommendations for the general public and this link to one of Dr Marr's slide decks
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1P9tBF-1RE5vw5hZyGIZ89Fl8munmLEQS/view
Our coronavirus thread is all grown up now. She can vote and join the army. It seems like yesterday that she was just a little baby.
Well now that they sent out the official email, I'll revise with full details
Worth noting....
Did anyone think there would be a different outcome? Of course college kids are going to throw parties.
Radford suspends three students for "blatant disregard for the health of our campus and our community" - one student suspended for an academic year, the other two for the fall semester.
https://www.wsls.com/news/local/2020/08/20/radford-university-suspends-t...
I saw a tweet earlier can't find it but looks like Tech has taken action against 7 students already also.
https://www.wsls.com/news/local/2020/08/20/virginia-tech-suspends-seven-...
To be honest, I am kind of glad to see this. Too often we hear that this group or that group isn't taking Covid seriously. This is a good firm indicator that both Radford and Tech are going to be taking this seriously.
They have to do it, and they have to let students KNOW they're going to do it.
Who knew that college came with some level of responsibility?
And the kick in the pants is that it is big reverse of the last 20 years of college trends. It seems like undergrad was being treated as an extension of high school for too many students.
My freshman year roommate, who was a sophomore, warned me on day 1 that "you will catch something from the Radford chicks" and it seems he is still correct.
A coworker told me her son was sent a freshman welcome package by UGA that included a UGA mask. Is VT doing something similar? Hell I would buy one. All the VT designed masks I have seen have been ugly as hell.
I'm torn about our round one matchup. On the one hand, it's Arizona and I can see partying driving a surge in cases. On the other hand, it's Arizona and I can see them sticking it out despite a surge. However, Round two I think we got. Auburn will likely have a huge surge and they'll be quick to revert to a football bubble. anOSU in round three could be a tough draw.
Glad to see the committee looked past our non-conference strength of schedule during the selection process for once.
Leonard Lock for the final four...
Three Cinderellas - Liberty, South Dakota State, Northern Iowa... and those pesky WV Cousins.
Edit - Please do not take the mention of Liberty down any of the 6000 rabbit holes that have been previously covered. Thank you in advance for your courtesy.
Drip Drip Drip - slowly fall football disappears. From 'Be adults': Universities in the U.S. are warning students about gatherings as they return to campus.
No one has ever accused FSU of being the brightest bunch
What's wrong with allowing tailgating? If you're only letting in a limited crowd anyway, social distancing should be very doable.
1. Designate a well spaced tailgating area.
2. Set up a system to reserve spots.
3. Only ticketed fans are allowed in the tailgate area, and you must remain with the members of your party.
4. Done.
Theoretically sure....but once the booze starts flowing, I'm sure everyone will stay within their own tailgate area with members of their party...
You just don't have much faith in your fellow citizens, do you?
My fellow citizens have not given me much reason to have much faith in them
This is actually just wrong.
Given how things have gone so far, no. Nobody should. There is no evidence that people would follow the guidelines.
Most people follow the guidelines.
It's the people who don't who get all the media coverage, though.
There's article after article about college kids going to parties and not wearing masks. More and more schools are having cases break out and reacting with going to all online classes. There's growing evidence that people actually are not following guidelines (at least in college age kids).
I'm not surprised. Seriously, the media HATES that schools are opening.
Also, the "sky is falling" coverage gets more clicks than "all is calm" and things are working out.
So buckle up. It's going to be a bumpy night.
Would you say "all is calm" and "things are working out"?
Not for those who assume everyone else is an idiot.
Like I said, "bumpy night".
People need to protect themselves based on their level of risk. Hopefully, vaccines come out sooner rather than later.
And online classes are going to make such a difference in transmission at off campus parties.
It's also the people who don't follow the guidelines who ruin it for those of us that do.
It takes far less people to fuck it up than it does to get it right.
Well, that's the attitude.
That might actually be true.
This may be anecdotal, but I saw a report, study, or whatever done in the Netherlands I think... where these doctors estimate for every 200,000 people wearing a mask, 1 infection is stopped. I mean... I don't have a flipping clue how they could figure that out, but there you go.
Citation needed
One thing is for sure, you aren't going to find that article on the front page.
What, exactly, is your point here? Other then a rather apparent bone to pick against "the media".
There is a ton of readily available evidence that college age kids are not following the guidelines, or at least not in sufficient percentages to prevent the spread of Covid. As evidenced by just about every single college that's opened up for in person classes right now.
I could answer this fully, but it would probably be too political. Well, let me see if I can try without crossing any lines.
I don't doubt that college students see the world differently than you do. Science shows that their brains are actually wired to think they're invincible, because otherwise, they'd never "leave the nest".
Still, the news coverage on this is aimed at you, not them.
This^^
I mean... People are going out of their way to not social distance, wear masks, and give the middle finger to any mandates. And that's while sober... Imagine if they were drunk. So... Absolutely not.
Are they? In general?
Or is it more than when someone does that, it makes the front page of the newspaper and is broadcast on cable news?
But yeah, people drinking at tailgates may be a fairly risky proposition.
I have to call BS on that. Your drumbeat blaming the media is just wrong and getting tiresome. I'm trying to just read and let it roll, but your agenda is shining through loud and clear. I've yet to see a front page article about people flaunting the mandates, but who needs to? All I have to do is go out and go in a store or two to see the examples of just that. Thank goodness we live in a society with a free press and just because you choose to excoriate it as often as you can work it in doesn't make it true. The media is not the enemy of the people as you may have chosen to believe. At least, I don't believe it.
I believe strongly in the freedom of the press. And I NEVER said the media is the enemy of the people. That's not at all what I said.
But do I think the media pushes certain narratives? I mean, don't you? I read the New York Times and The Washington Post every day, among others. I've all but stopped watching CNN or Fox News, as I find them both unbearable.
But when I see someone write "nobody's wearing masks!" I strongly suspect they're echoing what they've seen in the media. It's not what I've seen. Even in my small town, people wear masks inside most stores.
My apartment complex opened their pools to only residents and under a certain number of people last weekend. Now the pools are closed because there was a huge pool party exceeding the limit that day and there were people who didn't live here present.
Now granted. Opening on a Sunday when the office was closed was dumb, but still... Not too long after we got an email saying that the pools are closed due to it.
There's a very real "You're not a real American if you follow these guidelines" going on here. Although it might be a vocal minority, that's all it takes.
"Trust, but verify".
People aren't going to be perfect. Some are going to be downright stupid. Which is why people in leadership positions need to keep making clear what the expectations and ramifications are.
Where do you hang out? Because where I am, this is absolutely not the case... Like, at all. When I'm at a public space indoors, I'm seeing virtually 100% mask compliance at all times. You might see "that one guy" not a mask. I can sort of agree with you on the social distancing. I have noticed since the mask mandate, people in masks are not afraid to crowd in a little closer than before the mask mandate. I've actually had to tell a couple of people wearing masks to back up a little bit at the store. Not that I'm so much worried about catching COVID-19, I'm just a little creeped out when masked strangers are up in my business.
I live in Texas. The stores here hire security to make people comply with the mask requirements because people were not obeying them and threatening employees. I have personally heard this happen a few times.
I haven't gone out to restaurants/bars for a while, I've just gone to small gatherings with a few friends, but seeing the pictures of my facebook friends the establishments are just shoving as many people in as possible.
But every time I go to a large store I, for the most part, walk by someone not wearing a mask, half assed, or ineffectively wearing one. You know what they say, "one bad apple."
Lynchburg VA checking in. Tons of people around town flaunt the mask rules. Went into Walmart last week. Probably 60-40 in favor of no mask or masks worn wrong. Target was no better. Didn't realize it was move in weekend and it was crawling with students and parents. Sat outside at chipotle the other day and listened to a table full of people with LU shirts discussing loudly how it was shameful that the left wing media came up with this COVID hoax just to get Trump out of office. These folks are outside, but moved their way through the line inside with no masks or spacing out or anything.
I know I know. This is all anecdotal. I'm just saying that what I've experienced makes me a whole lot more likely to believe the "people are idiots" crowd than the "media is blowing it out of proportion" crowd. Obviously, the truth is there's a good bit of both going on.
That's wild to me. I live in a small town in NC in between Greensboro and Raleigh and frequent both and all 3 cities are overwhelmingly complying.
TERRIBLE compliance in Asheville and surrounding areas.
Again that's crazy to Me. I'd say damn near everywhere I go including large box stores comply with mandate.
It's baffled me as well. Just last week my wife witnessed a woman screaming at an Ingles employee because she was asked to wear a mask. I suspect a lot of it is tourists.
Asheville NC? I was in Asheville 2 weeks ago for 4 days. Compliance was almost 100% everywhere I went. Did not get out into the smaller surrounding towns much though
Maybe it depends where you go? The tourist parts are great! Anything off the beaten path has plenty of people who refuse and will get crazy if asked to comply. I was in Walmart a few hours ago and they had a station setup outside with a tent and an employee checking for compliance. A family in front of me (mom and 4 kids ages 4-12ish) tried walking in without masks. The employee kindly offered them free masks and the mom said her family didn't need masks. After a bit of back and forth, the mom ended up taking and wearing the masks, but she shared some colorful words first.
There is sort of a secondary phenomenon as well.
Where people think that anyone related to them, or friends with them, automatically don't have it.
I've got friends and neighbors who have had friends come and stay with them over the past few months. I've also had friends ask to come visit. I just said "I'm not doing that right now." While I hate turning anyone down, in my opinion this wasn't the right time to be traveling and visiting. How can they assure me, or I assure them that we don't have it, short of testing?
I'm in Georgia and it is getting better with mask compliance. However there are still people in my area who seemly forget there is a pandemic going on. Restaurants are distancing tables but then you see some busy body socialite going to different tables talking loudly with all the people at each table. Do I think she doesn't care about the recommendations? No. I think she forgot and was happy to see people she knows. She just resorted to old behavior.
So I have the solution:
"some busy body socialite going to different tables talking loudly with all the people at each table"
When they are young, everyone should have just been a dorky dweeb like me who rarely went out and hardly knew anybody. This would fix everything! (someone please insert Revenge of the Nerds image).
State College, PA checking in. I rarely see anyone in any store that isn't wearing a mask. I'd say near 100% compliance.
Granted, being in a northern college town is probably a lot different than being in Lynchburg
Not to beat a dead horse on a treadmill, but I think it's interesting to hear what people's experiences in different locations are. The phrase "your mileage may vary" really holds true here...
I live in SE Michigan, close to Detroit, and compliance varies widely depending on what region I'm in. What I've observed: Detroit and the bordering neighborhoods to the NW are all 80-100% compliance and as you move outward that rate decreases. Places like Milford or Plymouth, big box stores expect compliance (although might not enforce), but it's not uncommon to walk into a smaller store where no one has masks on.
My completely in no way scientific analysis is that the more rural the place, the lower the rate of compliance. I was back in Blacksburg to see family a month ago and while compliance was disappointingly low when going to the South Main Kroger, when I stopped in at the gas station at the turn off to the Cascades I was given weird looks for actually wearing one.
I also think there's a thing such as incomplete compliance. For example, I was at Costco yesterday. You have to wear a mask to get in - so everyone has a mask properly on their face. But maybe ~1/4 of people once inside were wearing the mask incorrectly. Had their noses out or were wearing the mask like a chinstrap. I saw quite a few of these people readjust and put the mask on properly when a Costco employee was around, so they definitely know how to wear a mask and know they are skirting the rules of the establishment when wearing it like that. I don't know how many are doing it as an act of protest vs generally being uncomfortable in the mask.
I agree. But, I can also see it being a regulation headache. If it goes like most things, the official answer will be NO TAILGATING but police wont likely break up very small tailgates either.
Here is how I would enforce that: no Tech lots are open for tailgating, no Tech afflicted group can host a tailgate, have the town lose any of its lots for tailgating. Any student found at a tailgate can face school discipline.
Not to mention if you are a non student tailgating on campus when they say no tailgating, campus police can slap you with a trespassing charge if you don't leave.
It can't be that simple. Non students will be parking to attend the game. They may enjoy a bojangle biscuit before going in.
According to my email today regarding tickets. They are going to limit attendance to the games to 1000.
Wow. That's barely 1%. UVa gonna have home field advantage in Blacksburg this year if it happens.
I'm sure we can make up the difference with sex dolls, piped in crowd noise, and seismic emulators
UVa will be the only school who's attendance figures don't go down this year.
Based on the Governor's order. Could change throughout the season.
Curious what others think - did I get a false positive or did I have covid and the antibodies have already left my system?
Timeline:
Jul 6 - wake up with a pretty bad headache (something I rarely ever get); In the evening feel pretty achy with joints hurting during my work out and neck achy after sitting on the couch watching a show.
Jul 7 - wake up again with a headache. Trip to NC in 10 days, and we have free drive up testing here, so figure for piece of mind I'll go get a test. Pretty much assuming it will be negative.
July 8 - Results come back - Positive. I've had a couple more headaches that week and no appetite. Says it could have been 2 - 14 days so notify the 5 people I had seen, and none test positive.
July 15 - second test, Negative.
Since I had called a doctor after the positive results, I scheduled a physical (it had been several years) and antibody test for August. Figure if I have the antibodies I can donate plasma.
August 21 - Antibody Test - Negative.
So did I have covid and the antibodies already gone, or did I get a false positive or I guess third option is a false negative on the antibody test?
Sounds like a false positive on the PCR test. They are good but they aren't perfect.
I'd bet on false positive.
That said, you deserve Kudos for volunteering to trying to donate plasma.
the antibody test is drastically less reliable than the PCR test.
The false negative was probably the antibody test, as opposed to a false positive from the PCR test.
The sensitivity of the serological test is pretty good. It obviously depends on the test, but the FDA results of these tests suggest most have really good sensitivity. The lowest sensitivity is 88%, but most were above 95%. 88% is a pretty low score for sensitivity though.
FDA authorize Serology Tests
Of course, the specificity of the RT tests are pretty high too. Besides the test specificity, false positives can come about due to mishandling of the sample, especially when batching procedures are used.
With that said, based on subsequent negative PCR and negative serology, I would presume that it was a false positive.
More importantly, the results suggest that gphokie is non-infectious and most likely does not have immunity to future COVID infection.
Yes, but the PCR test is more reliable than the antibody test. Since he had symptoms and a positive test from the more accurate test, I was just guessing a numbers game. When done correctly a PCR test is near 100% accurate.
FDA Link (with chart)
Molecular Test (including RT-PCR test)
Antibody Test (Serological test, serology, blood test, serology test)
The full chart is found on the FDA link.
There is a reason though that only 5 to 10% of tests are positive in most places. That reason is people get sick and have symptoms from illnesses other than covid. I know many people who were sick, thought they had covid, got tested, and received negative test results. Even he said he assumed it would be a negative result. False positives are occurring and likely at a higher rate than we know. See the recent news about NFL tests.
Yeah... I figured that was going on with people being quick to assume false positive.... There's a highly politicized movement to attempt to discredit the numbers in any way possible.
The PCR test is more accurate than the antibody test, FULL STOP. He tested positive on the more accurate test.
The NFL situation was almost certainly a lab error involving handling of samples because the chances of there being 9/9 false positives with the Bears is damn near a statistical impossibility given the accuracy of the tests.
since you had symptoms for several days accompanying a positive test; it is most likely you had covid.
I would say 2/3 negative tests means it was more likely not Covid.
It's possible the second PCR test was negative because he actually cleared the virus. Basically
Β―\_(γ)_/Β―
Sounds like False Positive. There also seem to be certain labs that are responsible for a high number of false positives.
NFL False Positives
As snake said above, could've cleared the virus before second test. Since your symptoms were mild and short-lived, maybe you had a very minor infection that your body fought off easily and never produced an antibody response. Or it could have been stress causing the aches and a false positive. I don't think you'll ever know. But glad you're healthy and no one around you has come down with Covid.
Speaking of tailgating let's just tailgate at my house I'll fix some homemade onion rings and campfire mayo and some chocolate eclairππ
CDC pulls a "quick... while nobody's paying attention because it''s Friday afternoon" and lifts the requirement for US travelers returning to the country to quarantine for 14 days.
Because just about everywhere else you could travel is safer in terms of contracting the virus than here. When other countries start lifting the 14 day quarantine/ban on US travelers going THERE, that will be a better sign for how we are doing.
Yeah, because after a 14 day quarantine in wherever and a vacation or business travel to a country that has this under control there's a drastically smaller risk of you coming back here with it.
You're really grasping at straws with this comment.....
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/24/asia-pacific/science-health...
"Hong Kong reports first coronavirus reinfection"
That's a tweet from back in April from the former Prez.
This is an excerpt from the author of a PEER REVIEWED study on the Wisconsin primary published in the American Journal of Public Health...
And yet, we're still fretting like mad over in-person voting at this very moment. Go to the polls, people. It's going to be fine. If we want to try mail in voting, let's try it in a year not named 2020. For the love of God. No.
Come on man! How does this not shatter CGs? This is strait up disinformation at its finest.
1) This election happened right as deaths were spiking in NYC.
2) Latency in onset of symptoms was already known at this point.
3) Testing was abysmal, so we had no idea how bad the spread truly was outside of NYC.
People were scared, and rightly so.
Pointing to this study (data from early April before the rest of the country really started to get hit), and drawing the conclusion that it's a responsible thing to have citizens vote in person everywhere is just misleading.
Fully agree. The world was entirely different in April. Different parts of our country are experiencing very different impacts of COVID-19 now. Some regions have cases diminishing substantially while others are ramping up. Projecting whatever happened in April to what's going to happen now and in the coming months is absurd.
No good can come of this. I'm closing this thread.
Edit: Moved comment above to Leonards post