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i just read this comment and thought Bar wrote it in support of "NIL didn't do this, schools and tv execs grabbing more money did this"
You're partially correct. This process doesn't have to do with NIL. But NIL is players getting money for autographs, jersey sales, media using their likeness, ect. No one reasonably had a problem with that.
But this does have Everything to do with "NIL" --- (note the quotes).
"NIL" is:
- 16 year-olds being taken to Campus visits in private jets while making demands for NIL guarantees to sign an LOI
- Transfers allowed multiple times during a single calendar year without any restrictions at all
- Complete elimination of any concept of eligibility or playing limits.
These processes have invariably favored the Blue Bloods (and secondarily the teams that reside within their conferences). If you don't think "NIL" played a massive role in the SEC annexing Texas and Oklahoma, you have your head in the sand.
And while Conference realignment/mismanagement and TV money both are also an integral part of the disintegration of CFB, you're stuck in the trees and missing the forest. The overwhelming problem here is Unchecked Greed. And that is where "NIL" fits in.
Its a basic idea of economics--a strategy to take over a market from smaller competitors, you simply price them out of it, even if it costs you in the short-term (see Ohio State example above).
This has been the plan from the start. To transform NIL into "NIL" and use it to consolidate money. And while people were too preoccupied making posts about "exploited players," and "NCAA always bad," the power was left to the SEC and B1G Administration-- who are just surrogates for TV Executives at Fox, ESPN, CBS, and NBC. TV Executives are bent on profit and will leave a rotting corpse of CFB behind once every last dime has been squeezed out. And yeah, TV Execs are absolutely going to find a way to completely screw over players too.
Fair enough- if we are going new school thinking... he needs to have recruiting skills first and foremost, followed by portaling skills- much the same skillset. If that's new school or Barry Switzer... so be it.
I think the point, though, is that determining if someone knows what the fuck they are doing is done different ways
older gen = look at their resume and body of work
younger gen = look at their skills and competencies
edit: FTR, I don't necessarily subscribe to one or the other - I think both have merits and flaws
"I think older generations definitely look at resumes and profiles to determine whether or not someone is suitable for a job vacancy, while younger generations generally look more for competencies and skill sets that are translatable to a job vacancy." - perhaps, but not in a vaccum. For VT football - spinning wheels for a decade- you hire someone that knows what the fuck he is doing- hopefully.
Been kicking this around in my head ever since the Christian Taylor reports came out and this is a pretty good comment jump in with it --
The Taylor vs Montgomery conversation is definitely "hiring someone based on what you believe they can do" vs "hiring the profile and the resume". In a lot of ways it's also the Siefkes vs Montgomery conversation.
I think older generations definitely look at resumes and profiles to determine whether or not someone is suitable for a job vacancy, while younger generations generally look more for competencies and skill sets that are translatable to a job vacancy.
I don't think reality has it as an either-or, but the conversation around here over the last week or so has definitely pitted the two against each other.
We would be in the same place today if conference alignments happen the same way, but players couldn't get paid (ie; players lost all the court cases).
The schools want to get as much money as possible. They would prefer the players not get paid because that's more money for the school.
"This has nothing to do with NIL "- maybe - but what has EVERYTHING to do with NIL is that the beast is bigger than ever and needs feeding. You need 30 million cash to field a championship team now give or take. That's why the P2 is consolidating. Money. Now to feed the beast. please for the love of god don't feed me the bullshit that "schools" don't pay NIL. that is laughable and everyone on here knows it.
You are 100% correct. My only concern with the WM guy was his P4 resume- none. He could be the next Bill Walsh, sure. The point is that it is a more accurate prediction of future success and frankly easier hire to go with an experienced P4 guy vs. identifying the next Chad Morris from high school. The later is a much bigger crap shoot. Few would argue that Shibest was Fuente's most competent coach and one of the better recruiters on staff. No coincidence that he was the only one Fu brought with him with P4 coaching experience. It matters.
Sure.
And that's why they pay you more for that kind of experience or promote you to head coach, as long as you win, can recruit, and are proven.
But people get there from somewhere.
So if you're trying to hire on a budget, because you don't have SEC or B1G money, then you're often faced with someone who doesn't have an optimal record, connections, etc, or someone who shows promise but doesn't have the big time experience.
Hence, the two people who we know Pry interviewed for this job. They both seem very qualified to me.
This has nothing to do with NIL pay for play and everything to do with conference realignment and TV networks.
If the SEC didn't poach Texas/OU, and the B10 didn't expand westward, there wouldn't be a P2. Furthermore, if the ACC was able to execute on their broadcast strategy (it was mostly the same strategy as the SEC, just a botched execution) and if the P12 didn't have an absolutely stupid strategy (owning all their own rights and trying to stand up their own network from scratch without any broadcasting or distribution experience), we wouldn't be in this consolidation state.
Imagine this alternative reality:
- Larry Scott convinces Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State to come to the P12
- Instead of being stupid and trying to maintain 100% ownership and control of the (seven) Pac-12 Networks and launching it without a strategic media partner, Larry Scott partnered with ESPN/Fox/NBCU/etc
- Instead of taking 5 years to launch the ACCN, it launches in one year (just like the SECN and B10N)
If these three things happen, sure the B12 falls. But instead of being two power conferences focused in two(ish) geographic areas, today, there's four power conferences in four(ish) geographic areas.
Hell, even if the first bullet doesn't happen, but the second two do, the ACC and P12 are on far more stable footing than they are today.
In the above situation, NIL pay for play still happens. But there is still significantly more representation throughout the entire sport. The SEC/B10 don't have the negotiating power that they have now. They can make some demands, but they still have to play ball.
The interest in watching the same handfull superteams full of the football equivalent of mercenaries isn't there for the casual fan. And that's where money is made---the casual fan.
This is another line of logic that I think is incorrect: Yes, mass casual fans bring in more money than a handful of bama fans. BUT casual fans typically cheer for bluebloods. You think Joe-Shmo in Greysville Alabama gives a fuck about the ACC or the MAC or even the sunbelt? Fuck no, he wants to watch Alabama vs Auburn. And if that's not on, his next choice is OSU vs Michigan. You think the 24 year old Finance Bro in NYC who went to Williams college or Middlebury and grew up a Patriots fan is going to tune into VT vs NC State? Hell no, but he'll throw on Penn State vs USC.
Edit to add: if schools turned down money for broadcast rights, then there would be no NIL/Pay-for-play/collective money/house money. Everyone in an athletic department gets to offer their services/product to the highest bidder, except the players.
the FSU and Clemson lawsuits were always stupid, they're going to leave at some point, so fuck em until they do.
Agreed.
So why did the ACC give them a little bump as "traditional" brands? Because otherwise they likely could have used this shit-ass deal as evidence that the ACC wasn't working in good faith for their best interests.
The explanation that I've heard is that the revenue the other ACC teams would lose in the new revenue share deal is less than than the legal fees necessary to defend against it.
The future is always going to be P2 contraction. The top teams from the BIG and the SEC will eventually leave the deadweight from their own conferences behind and form a new super league with a monster tv contract.
I agree. At some point, Alabama (as an institution) will have more in common with Southern Cal than Miss. State. At this point, the super league will commence.
In general sure. My overall point is that its a different ballgame- recruiting, game planning, coaching, calling plays. I feel strongly that if you have worked in that level before, its an advantage vs. not.
P4 games move faster for a QB, thus affecting play calling - hot reads etc.
So your argument is that due to increasing speed/physicality/talent level, a coordinator has to develop more situational awareness?
Extrapolating this line of thinking - at lower levels it's more about playing to your advantages, but at higher levels, it's more about playing to your opponent's disadvantages?
Fair summary of your view?
This was the end result that was coming since the inception of "NIL." Those with money and power were going to squeeze out those without it. In 2027, the ACC and Big-12 will formally begin dissolving.
This season was really the perfect embodiment of "new" College Football---OSU went over-the-top to assemble the best team money could buy. And sure, they won the National Championship but they lost two regular season games, one to their most bitter rival. Here's the other point....the Athletics Department is LOSING MONEY.
The majority of the CFP was boring and non-competitive and the TV ratings were down. The interest in watching the same handfull superteams full of the football equivalent of mercenaries isn't there for the casual fan. And that's where money is made---the casual fan.
College Football is nothing more than a short-sighted cash grab phase at this point. The system isn't sustainable (and never was without some level of regulation) and the P2 are going to wring every last drop of cash out before everything collapses.
By 2030, fan interest will wane to MLB levels, collectives will collapse, revenue will start to fall and the entire system will consume itself.
In the meantime, I will be scrambling to setup a reverse mortgage on my home so that I can help pay "NIL" to a 5'9" 26 year-old QB so that he can afford a lawyer to sue for an 8th year of eligibility because he had Turf-toe for 2 games during his 2nd Sophomore year that limited his "NIL Potential."
You know... the FSU and Clemson lawsuits were always stupid, they're going to leave at some point, so fuck em until they do.
So why did the ACC give them a little bump as "traditional" brands? Because otherwise they likely could have used this shit-ass deal as evidence that the ACC wasn't working in good faith for their best interests. Good lord.
The future is always going to be P2 contraction. The top teams from the BIG and the SEC will eventually leave the deadweight from their own conferences behind and form a new super league with a monster tv contract.
That will absolutely happen. This is just a matter of controlling the speed at which it does. Die quick or die slow? The rest of the G8 have decided to die slow.
When you and I went to VT, people wore green and red parkas to games and UNC hats. VT champion sweatshirts from the bookstore were rare throughout lane. After Mike Vick, the stadium turned maroon, blacksburg built more restaurants than Macadoos for post game and christiansburg built a whole lot more hotels. VT should let history repeat itself. Do whatever it takes to get into a P2 league. lean into football being a major part of the economy again, etc.
If there's going to be a separation, it's not going to be a P2 breakaway, necessarily. No way something like this will be based on just conferences that are the end result of geographic associations over 100 years ago. It's going to be based on whoever is willing to spend at an appropriate level, and will involve the top teams leaving P4 conferences, not the P2 conferences moving en masse.
FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC, and VT will be involved. Maybe NC State.
Correction, he was not dismissed from UCLA. He left to take the Ohio State OC position.
Most college football minds still thought he was a fantastic offensive coach, but there was this general fan driven narrative so your overall point still stands.
No other way to put it.
The non-P2 need to threaten to walk. Use our dwindling leverage while we still have it. The non-P2 still has a number of major football brands and state TV markets currently untouched by the P2. They can only drink our milkshake as long as were sitting at the table voluntarily participating in this increasingly illegitimate bullshit. If the P2 (and ESPN) believes they're the only leagues generating value here, let's call their bluff. The longer we wait, the greater the resource disparity becomes, and our leverage diminishes.
Simple. When a Clemson DE crashes the zone read, it comes a lot fucking faster than a Villanova DE. P4 games move faster for a QB, thus affecting play calling - hot reads etc. This should be self explanatory. I will continue to maintain the gap between the levels of play is bigger than people think. Yeah JMU wins in the subelt now, and Pavia is crafty at Vandy. Doesn't change the fact. Montgomery has seen fast P4 defenses and schemes. That will help him. See Cornelson, Brad for a counter point.
He started games slowly. He started seasons slowly.
I don't think there is any such thing as "hes a good OC for mid talent type teams"
Question: How do you maintain the opinion that a good playcaller/ball knower is a good playcaller/ball knower, but also maintain that we need a P4 playcaller, not an FCS/G5 playcaller?
Leg. Summed up my thoughts perfectly as well. I'm done sinking money into this bottomless pit as well.
Nil is a symptom. Not a cause.