Recent Comments

Eh. I'm really not doing much work. I'm calculating the YPC-B, just because nobody is going to average the carries of only the backs. But even that is just updating the rushing totals in Excel and letting it do all the work. It'll take more time to make the forum post than it will to actually track the stats. I just thought it'd be interesting to see how the offense progresses or regresses over the course of the season, and then once I decided to do it, I figured maybe people here would be interested in it too.

Clemson
Duke
GT
USC
Alabama
BYU

Most of all......What about the Utes game?

Louisville +6.5
Northwestern +3.5
Georgia Tech -2.5
USC -10.5
Bama -6.5
BYU +16.5

Taylor playing on Sundays, Randall 2.0 on Saturdays....

What's the chances Logan heads tontue Arena League or Canada to play?

Thanks for the detailed answer. This stuff is just interesting enough for me to ask questions, and just complicated enough for me to not put the effort into it that you and others do. Your work is greatly appreciated. Thanks for doing this stuff.

Klempsun
Dookies
Chop Block O'Clock
Condoms
Admiral Ackbar
Nutbusters

Team Paid For By Papa Johns
Purple Nerds
Bumblebees
Lane Kiffin Recruits, 2010-13
Lane Kiffin Recruits, 2014-present
Mormons

Clemson -6.5
Duke -3.5
Georgia Tech -2.5
Stanford +10.5
Ole Miss +6.5
BYU +16.5

At the risk of derailing the thread, I am glad I am not the only one underwhelmed by that piece. A lot of people, whose opinions I respect greatly, were hailing it as the most brilliant thing ever written, and I just don't see it. I think I've read nutrition facts on food packages that were more profound, although, the part where he said anyone with the hubris to offer a dissenting opinion should be sealed in a well was interesting.

Anyways, [steps off soap box] this week's HAS is solid.

I think all your concerns are valid. Let me explain my rationale.

I'm certain that the statistical value of a touchdown is seven points. Among all touchdowns scored, the mean, median and mode are all 7. In all practical regards, by settling for a field goal in the red zone, a team is leaving four points on the field. So I'm deriving the 3/7 value from the real-world effect on the scoreboard. However, your concern to neither penalize nor reward the offense for the performance of special teams is warranted. That's why I pointed out that assigning field goals a fixed proportionate value in relation to touchdowns is preferable to the "percentage of all possible points" model. That model would lower the offense's red zone efficiency if Slye misses a PAT. By assuming PATs as a given, we reflect the actual real-world effect of settling for a field goal without having to account for abberations like missed PATs and 2-point conversions.

There's a part of me that's sympathetic to the notion that missed field goal attempts shouldn't adversely affect red zone efficiency in the sense that it isn't the offense's fault if the kicker misses the field goal. But it IS the offense's fault that the kicker is attempting a field goal in the first place, instead of a PAT. Also, I don't have research to back me up on this, but I would bet you a not insignificant percentage of red zone drives ending in no points are the result of something other than a missed field goal. Turnovers and failed fourth down conversions have to be somewhat common amongst the failures, considering how high the success rate is for field goal attempts of 37 yards or fewer. A significant amount of the time, failure to put any ponts on the board whatsoever in the red zone will be directly attributable to something the offense did. (Or failed to do.)

Long story short, I feel pretty good about a fixed value for field goals equal to 3/7 of a touchdown. I think it captures the real-world effect of settling for three without having to fret over the specifics of each individual touchdown scored.

Thanks for your feedback. I really appreciate it.

I've been looking at this for a far too large portion of today. So cool to see all the recruits, the people who sit in front of me where I normally only see back of heads, Mr. Durkin's biceps, the massive clan of Edmundi, Shelly Meyer behind the end zone (see her elitist rant?), my favorite might be David Pollack's shorts.

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