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You would expect to get a little better than 1 out of 5 instate prospects who put you in their top 5, and do little worse than that out of state, for an average of 1 out of 5 top prospects who put you in there top 5. Thats why there is a top five. That 4 misses for every hit, which seems like a lot when you miss, but are the odds, and when we get those numbers we are competing evenly with the "elite" schools. We don't get into as many top fives as Bama or FSU, especially out of state, which keeps us from getting the overall talent, and will only be corrected by getting into the playoff picture regularly, but it seems like we do get our share of those who do put us in the top five. 1 out of 5.

IMO, to put it simply:

7 wins or less: Loeffler is out. Beamer is also shaky.

8 wins: It's a tossup, I guess it depends on how the onfield product looked like. Loeffler most likely would stay an extra year.

9 wins+: Loeffler's job is safe.

Regardless, it's a make or break year for Loeffler. He has all the weapons to make this a special year. We don't need a top 30 unit with the defense we have, a Top 60 would suffice, but there's no excuse this year for not improving significantly.

Even success may not be an option for Loeffler.

The most likely scenario right now is probably that this will be Beamer's last year. His health is more of an issue than ever and he always said that will determine his retirement. Assuming Beamer retires, the next coach in all likelihood will not retain Loeffler. Maybe...maybe...if Bud gets the job, he retains Loeffler if the offense is like top 30 this year. But Bud has said he would go with a spread offense.

There is probably more than a 50% likelihood that the next coach will be an offensive minded coach, so no Loeffler. Presumably if they were going to hire a defensive minded coach, they would hire Bud.

Yes I completely agree with this. Offense lives and dies by the O-Line. I think if our O-Line can stay healthy all year we can win 10 or 11 games relatively easily. If we have just one injury there, though, we could be looking at another 4 or 5 loss season. The coaching staff has definitely focused on bolstering that unit and it has certainly improved talent-wise since the overhaul but there just isn't any reliable depth. The offensive line, in my mind, is the single most difficult unit to rebuild and it takes the longest time to do so. That is why I expected it to take years for this offense to get turned around. We just haven't had the pieces to throw together a serviceable O Line in years (thank Newsome and Co.) but I have seen promising signs of improvement there under the new coaching staff. I think it will take another year or two of recruiting and coaching to get to a point where we, as a fan base, will be confident in our O-Line.

This is probably another rabbit hole that we shouldn't go down...again... The truth is the recruiting is something with little sense or logic involved because the things these 17/18 year old kids want varies so much. Some want to be with friends, some prefer to be close to home, others want to be set up for a future in the NFL, and there are some that just want a degree and football is how they will pay for it. That's why it's not worth it to get upset regardless of what school a kid picks, because all they are doing is taking the route that they think will give them what they are looking for.

My hope is that the offense reaches the 60s in most offensive categories and minimizes turnovers. Frank has always been about the field position battle. I don't think Loeffler should feel like his offense needs to score points in bunches to keep his job. I just want to see an efficient offense that shows progress from last year and throughout this upcoming year. If we finish 8-4 or 9-3 (which I think is possible) and the offense improves in just about every category and shows signs of continuing to improve in the future I would be for keeping Loeffler around for another year or two. He had a pretty hefty mess to clean up and I expected it to take years to rebuild.

IF the offense stays about the same or even regresses then I think it would be fair to cut ties and move on. My only fear is that if we continue to expect coaches to come in and fix things in a year or two we're going to keep firing coaches before realizing the fruits of their labor. With change comes growing pains and if we're constantly changing we're going to be constantly behind the 8 ball.

Is this an important year for our offense? CERTAINLY. If the offense shows marked improvement and at least looks competent most of the time then we all breathe a sigh of relief and look forward to a brighter future. If not, then we're going to be in for a rocky ride over the next several years...I fear that fielding a less-than-stellar offense this year is going to end up have major repercussions for this entire coaching staff.

At the end of the day, all people really care about are the number of marks in the W column at the end of the season. With a pretty darn good defense to lean on, this offense doesn't need to transform into Auburn, Oregon, or Clemson. It just needs to take care of the ball and score points when they're needed. I think that an offense operating in the middle of the pack nationally coupled with a Bud Foster Defense can produce the results the fans want. I also believe that Scot Loeffler is capable of putting just such an offense on the field this year.

Recruits who had offers from SEC teams or FSU/Clemson who chose VT since 2012 class: Joel Caleb, JC Coleman (Vandy), Trey Edmunds, Ken Ekanem (Vandy), Drew Harris (ugh), Mark Irick, Jarontay Jones, Chris Mangus, Donaldven Manning, Donovan Riley(Vandy), Davion Tookes, Devin Vandyke, Kyle Chung, Brandon Facyson, Holland Fisher, Kendall Fuller, Bucky Hodges, Carlis Parker(Vandy), Daniel Reid, Wyatt Teller, Isaiah Ford, Kendrick Holland, Shai McKenzie, Travon McMillian, Vincent Mihota, Raymon Minor, C.J. Reavis, Ricky Walker, Marshawn Williams, Jahque Alleyne, Mike Arnold, Austin Clark, Chris Cunningham, Tremaine Edmunds, Darius Fullwood, Trevon Hill, Duwayne Johnson, Dwayne Lawson, Mook Reynolds, Tim Settle, Adonis Williamson.

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